tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-228966172024-03-13T04:33:32.463-04:00CANGAMBLEUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger744125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-18900345896756749362022-02-09T17:07:00.000-05:002022-02-09T17:07:10.075-05:00Tanking Doesn't Have A Future In A Legalized Sports Betting World<p> I always had a problem with teams losing a game on purpose, let alone a series of games on purpose. I've always believed that you always try your best to win, no matter what. Somehow some way it has become acceptable for a team to lose as many games as it can for the reward of potential future star via a top draft pick that may or may not pan out.</p><p>Last I looked, fans pay top dollar to watch their teams play. But now, legalized gamblers have entered the picture too. Yes, gamblers can take into account that certain teams want to lose a game, but think about, how silly does it sound? And what about integrity? Are passes dropped on purpose? Are run plays called when a team needs to pass? Are shots missed on purpose? Is taking a fall acceptable in 2022?</p><p>The revelations that Brian Flores was offered $100,000 for each game he threw isn't unbelievable. We saw first hand the Toronto Raptors tank on purpose last year in order to get a high draft pick. Was Nick Nurse, who coaches like he never wants to lose any game anytime given a bonus to not play several of his starters as the season winded down? I hate to think he was, I hate to think he made decisions during the game to ensure a loss. But it was clear as day what the Raptors were up to, and it was completely accepted, even by the majority of the fans.</p><p>Can it be acceptable anymore? Not in the NFL, that is for sure, now that the genie is out of the bottle thanks to the allegations by Flores. </p><p>The NBA may take a little more time to catch up. They let players rest. Having to rest players, sometimes 4 or 5 at a time, is an admission that your season is too long. Fans paying good money to see stars, many times don't see them. But now with sports betting entering the picture, odds fluctuations caused by late scratches and late rest announcements are going to give gamblers too much to complain about. They got away with resting this year because of Covid, next year, I don't think so.<br /></p><p>Currently, the NBA has to let teams like Portland and Oklahoma tank this year because their draft lottery rules are already in place. So maybe the Commish will step in and change the rules next year. </p><p>I expect to see the NFL do away with their current rules where the worst team gets the first pick ASAP. </p><p><b>The best way to keep fans and gamblers happy is to put all the teams that don't make the playoffs into a hat, and give them all an equal shot at the first through 20 picks in the NFL and first 14 picks in the NBA. As for the teams that make the playoffs, let them have an equal chance at the rest, or even a lottery, because I'd like to think that a team in the playoffs won't look to throw a game or a series for a better lottery pick.</b></p><p>Since this is mostly a horse racing blog, I feel like giving a horse racing angle to this. Back in the day when horses were magically able to run 20 or 30 times a year, it was often felt that the odd horse was stiffed to get better odds next time out. Probably doesn't happen much in thoroughbred anymore. The good old days when you drugged a horse to make it run slower. It wasn't accepted by the masses then, but we accepted the Raptors tanking last year like it was part of the game. This is gonna end.<br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-50888408576404668922021-06-20T11:35:00.001-04:002021-06-20T11:35:47.841-04:00Has Arlington Park Solved Horse Racing's Jackpot Problem?<p> Unfortunately for horse racing, Arlington Park may be no more in the near future, but in the meantime they may have come up with a way to rid the betting world of the mostly unproductive Jackpot wagers which have now reached plague like proportions.</p><p>In its infancy, I was for Jackpot bets. In 2010, Beulah Park was put on the map, a C track, was temporarily competing for wagers with Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day, attracting over $700,000 in new money, as bettors were chasing the $400,000 carryover in the mandatory Fortune 6.</p><p>Since then, more and more and more racetracks have put Jackpot wagers on the menu. So much that Jackpot wagers make up the overwhelming majority of carryovers offered. <a href="https://todayscarryovers.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">Today for example, 9 out 32 carryovers are Jackpot bets </a>(and four of the nine non Jackpot bets are offered at Arlington). Most days the ratio is worse than that. <br /></p><p>There are huge problems today with Jackpot bets. <br /></p><p> First, very few smaller tracks get to offer a huge payday to the lucky individual bettor, and even if they do, it takes an awful long period of time to get there. </p><p>Secondly, Jackpot bets ties up oodles of potential churn money. Every gambler is different, however, collectively, the typical gambler is all about staying in action while frequently or infrequently being rewarded for being right. Some gamblers are compelled to go after the big score, so dangling a possible large payout tempts them to take a shot at the Jackpot wagers. Gamblers do like the dream of the big score, that makes betting fun, but I contend, not as much fun as actually cashing other wagers frequently, at least for most horse players. Jackpot bets, because they are everywhere, hinder the maximum potential fun a horse player can have.<br /></p><p>Finally, the smart money generally comes into play on mandatory payout days. This is because many horse players like value. Mandatory payout days usually turn into pools that make for a positive takeout situation (or at least close enough). And the non value hunters will still be attracted to the big pool expectation regardless, hoping to be one of the potentially very few to hit it. This shows tracks need to cut to the chase quicker or look for wagers that will attract the same or more that Jackpot bets do, without the Jackpot. </p><p>It is refreshing to see NYRA going back to the traditional Pick 6, hopefully more racetracks will follow, but here is where Arlington comes in:</p><p>Arlington offers a slew of gimmick bets. A Pick 6, a Pick 7, a Jackpot Hi 5, and a Pick 8. Too many, if you ask me, but they may be onto something with a non Jackpot Pick 8.</p><p>It is a 20 cent base with a 15% takeout. Most of what is wagered is carried over if no one gets 8 winners. Those who hit 7 winners (or 6 winners if nobody hits 7) get a consolation payout. I think their consolation prize ratio should be higher than it currently is, but that is different story. </p><p>Assuming the average winner's chance of finishing first being at 4-1 (varies with field size), it is 25 times more difficult to hit than a Pick 6. </p><p>The carryover currently stands at over $70,000. <b>The thing is that nobody has had 8 winners for 8 consecutive racing days. This kind of proves the degree of difficulty.</b> A carryover pool of over 50k attracted almost $25,000 in new money yesterday. Over 120,000 of combos that didn't have 8 winners.</p><p> I'm thinking handle numbers could be much higher if the Pick 8 wasn't just unique to Arlington and horseplayers became used to the wager at various other tracks. Also, if Arlington were rid itself of the Jackpot Hi 5 which ties up lots of potential churn as well as their Pick 6 and Pick 7 which don't seem to gain much build up or traction.<br /></p><p>Surely, you'll start seeing some huge carryovers in no time from some of the A tracks. And the B and C tracks can offer something more reasonable than Jackpot wagers. A Pick 8 with a decent carryover causes value players to handicap the entire card. </p><p>Without hurting the potential larger carryovers too much, larger consolidation payouts should be considered. Maybe 30% of the new money collectively divided equally to those who have 6 winners and those who have 7. This increases the potential churn.<br /></p><p>This also leads me to an alternative for the Jackpot Hi 5. I'm all for ridding the racing world of this wager, but if a track wants to offer a potential big payout for an individual wager, make it a less attainable Hexafecta non Jackpot bet, where the player has to pick the first 6 finishers in the exact order. This should lead to a lot of carryovers, but it will be hit a lot more than the Jackpot bets finally are, putting money in player's hands a lot quicker.</p><p><b>I'm not concerned about calling the Hexafecta anything but that. However, I kind of would like the Pick 8 to be called The Spider (Octopus has too many syllables, it doesn't feel right rolling off the tongue).</b><br /></p><p><br /></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-53898687010958310492021-04-12T12:16:00.003-04:002021-04-12T12:16:55.925-04:00North American Harness Tracks Takeouts (Updated)<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyFIjbkr2qthj5biGesaL5RzXC8J3K2LOjWXbg50YV3XlvVXCHN4RgWnDNlLkeoIEWfCy6bOkPOnJb4_4LGz5mB-eEPnBx1FbgORB9u9msBg7FBZrh-iueV_qXpfaWBDi6O5rRrw/s732/harnesstakeouts2021.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="732" data-original-width="346" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyFIjbkr2qthj5biGesaL5RzXC8J3K2LOjWXbg50YV3XlvVXCHN4RgWnDNlLkeoIEWfCy6bOkPOnJb4_4LGz5mB-eEPnBx1FbgORB9u9msBg7FBZrh-iueV_qXpfaWBDi6O5rRrw/w302-h640/harnesstakeouts2021.png" width="302" /></a></div><br /> <p></p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-13324115798315177042020-08-24T11:16:00.003-04:002021-02-28T09:37:16.315-05:00Horse Racing Questions (That Have Terrible Answers)<p>OK, here we go again. This blog post will change nothing, but here are some horse racing related questions that currently have terrible answers: </p><p>Why can the Olympics time each runner accurately to the 1/100th of a second, but horse racing can't? </p><p>Why do run ups exist especially when it comes to dirt/Tapeta racing? </p><p>Why are some trainers still "risking it" with designer drugs? </p><p>Why are there track takeouts north of 15%? </p><p>Why do jackpot bets exist? </p><p>Why are there inquiries that last more than 5 minutes? </p><p>Why does one have to claim a horse prior to a race and not after the race? </p><p>Why are horses allowed to breed before they reach 6 years old? </p><p>Why is it legal for a grown adult to carry a gun in public in Texas, but that same person can't make a legal horse racing bet online? </p><p>Why do big name trainers, who pretty much train in name only at some tracks, not have a reasonable limit to how many horses they can train nationwide? </p><p>Why aren't there universal rules when it comes to fines and penalties, and betting?</p><p>
Why isn't there a nationwide horse racing lottery?</p><p>Why doesn't a national betting exchange exist for win and show bets with a 4% takeout?</p><p>
</p>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-48004229865894801352020-04-08T10:55:00.001-04:002020-04-11T09:37:09.378-04:00Who Is Racing and When Will Racing Start Up Worldwide and some Track Takeout Info (Updated)Currently the following tracks are racing Updated April 11th:<br />
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US Tracks<br />
Fonner Park - season ends May 4th<br />
Tampa Bay Downs - season ends May 3rd<br />
Oaklawn Park - season ends May 2nd<br />
Gulfstream Park - season is year long<br />
Los Alamitos Quarter horses - season is year long<br />
Remington Park Quarter horses - season ends May 30th<br />
Will Rogers - season ends May 23rd<br />
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There is no racing going on in Canada, and no harness racing going on in North America<br />
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Foreign Tracks<br />
Australia both Thoroughbreds and Harness are continuing to race<br />
Takeout rates: WPS 16.8% ExQuinDD 24.8% SupP3P4 26.3% Tri 27.8%<br />
Sweden Harness racing<br />
Takeout rates: WPS 15% QuinEx 20% Double 25% Tri 30% V75 35%<br />
Hong Kong Thoroughbred Racing <br />
Takeout rates: WPQuinOmni 17.5% Tri 25%<br />
Japan Thoroughbred Racing<br />
Takeout rates: WP 20% P3P4 27% All Other 25%<br />
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Now the hard part. When will racing begin again?:<br />
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UK Racing is suspended until at least the end of April. <br />
Irish Racing is suspended until at least May 4th.<br />
South African Racing is suspended until at least April 16th. Still no word, and with no entries, expect a further delay.<br />
Singapore Racing is suspended at least until May 4th<br />
France Racing is suspended until at least April 15th, but that date is expected to extended. No update.<br />
South Korea is slated to return April 18th. No update.<br />
New Zealand is suspended to at least least April 22nd No update<br />
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North American racing is a complete guessing game. Even though racing without the presence of crowds seems workable, many tracks survive because of gaming revenues. Until casinos are back<br />
in business, horse racing may be further delayed in states like Pennsylvania, New York, Louisiana and Ohio. Those states are currently hot spots as far as the virus goes. The bright side is that states definitely want casinos back as quickly as possible because of the revenues casinos generate, but how realistic is it to open up slots and table games with social distancing going on?<br />
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Horsemen have made their case as well. The longer this goes on, the more the bills (unpaid?) mount, and the longer horses will need to train to get into horse racing shape if they are taken out of training for financial reasons. <br />
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California should be the first to initiate a new A meet (Los Alamitos is currently running). They are not dependent on casino revenues in California. If a handful of tracks open up in the rest of <br />
the US, they might actually attract enough wagering dollars to pay for the show, but too many tracks running will make it impossible for casino dependent tracks to operate successfully. Once the curve flatten look for A racing to begin at Los Alamitos, Del Mar or Santa Anita. Cal Expo's spring meet has officially been cancelled.<br />
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Ontario racing is trickier as funds are already allotted to horse racing in lieu of gaming revenues, as tracks don't need slots to race. Right now, Ontario is in strict lock down, but there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Fort Erie is planning to open up their backstretch as scheduled on April 12th and they still believe they will be racing live late May. Woodbine looks like they won't start up until at least the middle of June, maybe early July, but that is a fluid situation. Late May might be an achievable date for Ontario harness racing. More than likely, horse racing will happen in Ontario before it happens in British Columbia and Alberta, but once racing does start up in Ontario, the other provinces will be pressured to start up shortly thereafter.<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-50327153033408748822020-03-26T16:02:00.002-04:002020-03-26T16:05:55.995-04:00Coronavirus PredictionsWhen it comes to the Coronavirus, nobody knows for sure, but there sure as heck isn't a shortage of opinions and predictions, so let me join the party.<br />
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I think the biggest hint we got was yesterday. And it wasn't from someone hoping churches are filled Easter Day, it was the details of the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit. For a government to dole out $2,000 per affected worker as a one shot deal is a big thing, but to give it out for four months is a huge thing. The government is telling us that much of the economy is going to be in the dumps for at least 4 months. They could have said three months, and many people would have been equally relieved (relative relief that is vs. no bail out).<br />
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The Woodbine Entertainment CEO kinda sorta put out an unofficial hopeful date <a href="https://torontosun.com/sports/horse-racing/woodbine-ceo-desperately-worried-about-the-future-of-the-industry">of July 1</a> as the start up date for Woodbine's thoroughbred season with lots of caveats added. It could be sooner, it could be next year as well. I think that the date will depend on what happens in the UK but mostly in the US. Will Gulfstream and Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita continue to run without a major backstretch outbreak of positives (not talking Navarro positives....actually the positives didn't exist because he was using grey area magic to win races....but that is another can of <strike>performance enhancer</strike> worms horse racing will have to deal with very soon) or a government shutdown order? <br />
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Can the backstretch maintain the 6 foot social distancing rule enough? How important is horse racing really? Does it really have the agriculture industry impact it states it has? We'll see if racing starts up again in Ohio and Pennsylvania in April. Many are hoping for early April. I doubt it in most cases. I strongly believe we are going to see some ugly numbers when it comes to Coronavirus casualties just before the flattening of the curve (I really hope I'm wrong, but science is usually right). And factoring in March break returnees and the fact the States were late to react and Canada was even later, I think it might take until the last week of April to see that flattening, maybe a little longer in Canada.<br />
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On a more optimistic note, Singapore has found a way to keep <a href="https://calvinayre.com/2020/03/26/casino/singapore-casinos-viral-restrictions-singapore-pools-shuts-retail-betting/">their casino open</a>, and I think it is a pretty fair bet that the virus has a better chance to spread in a casino than a horsemen only racetrack. Governments love casinos. If they could keep them open they would. And in a lot of jurisdictions horse racing exists only because of casino revenue. This is making me think that much of the decision to not let races go on without people in the stands is tied into when is a reasonable date to open up the casinos.<br />
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I'm predicting late April, early May for racing in North America to wind back in gear without people in the stands. I expect to see the UK back up third week of April. After all, horse racing is the only game in town (too bad even if they were running right now and for those few tracks running, the game just won't catch on because of the high rake mo matter how little competition there is).<br />
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With Churchill Downs announcing the Kentucky Derby's September date, I wonder if that opens the door for a later date going forward. Not September but maybe July or August. I think it would be good for the game. More durable horses, more mature horses to choose from, a race with a lot more quality. We might not get the quality this year due to the stoppage, but if this was a normal year with a later Derby, well you get my point.<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-25942483018792942192019-11-28T14:11:00.001-05:002019-11-28T14:16:10.346-05:00Where Does Horse Racing Go From Here?Horse racing has an uphill battle going forward. The biggest problem has nothing to do with horse safety, it has to do with horse racing's inability to attract new Horseplayers. <br />
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With a base that is literally starting to die off, there doesn't seem to be many replacements willing to learn the game. After blowing a near monopoly when it comes to online gambling for years and years, I don't see how horse racing can compete with sports betting. Gamblers looking for home runs can take 5 or 6 team parlays instead of betting Pick 4s or Pick 5s. <br />
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Horse racing know nothings say things like "the time between races is a deterrent to growth." Yet a football game, with 8-10 minutes of actual play in a game that takes 3 hours to finish, attracts oodles and oodles of action, and it even gets millennials, with their shortened attention spans, to take up gambling.<br />
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Know nothings will also say that horse racing is too complicated. When I was 4, I understood what a win bet was. Blue haired ladies without a racing form can figure out how to make and get paid on a show bet. OK, I couldn't figure out how to figure out show prices until I was 10 (this was before net pool pricing made it so you need a degree in math to figure out show prices).<br />
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The reason horse racing doesn't grow is really simple. I've stated it on this blog many many many times, but here I go once more: HORSE RACING NEEDS VISIBLE LONG TERM WINNERS IN ORDER GROW.<br />
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Of course, it boils down to ridiculously high track takeouts. How can any person reasonably believe that you can make money in a high churn gambling game that takes an average of 20-21% on all monies wagered? Even if you are "lucky" enough to be receiving a 5% rebate, it isn't realistic that one could beat a takeout of 15%. In the past, it might have been possible. Back when it was the only game in town (before lotteries and slots), there was enough dummy money (in the 60s and early 70s, a large chunk of players didn't even use a form when they made a bet) in the pools to possibly eke out long term profits. Today, just about all the money in the daily pools come from handicappers who could pass a university level course in horse racing.<br />
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Unfortunately, there doesn't seem to be a fix on pricing on the horizon. Probably why I'm so pessimistic. How can horse racing possibly attract new blood without stories of how Johnny Smith made enough money betting on horses that he moved out of his parent's basement and into a detached home in Forest Hill (in Toronto, Google it).<br />
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There are a couple of ways keep takeout high on exotics and attract newbies, but lets look at things horse racing is doing now, that won't work.<br />
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Jackpot bets don't grow the game. They most likely help kill the game. Tying up money that goes to one big winner eventually kills churn, and therefore whittles away at the Horseplayer's potential fun. It isn't worth the fun of hoping to hit the bet. The reason the Jackpot came along was to attract newbies, it hasn't worked, but now it has evolved as a way to compete with other tracks in getting the Horseplayer to play the track with a big pool. Short term thinking by racetracks at the expense of cutting long term growth has plagued horse racing for decades. <br />
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The underhanded whip is going way too far. I'm all for the safety of the horse and jockey, but having jockeys whip underhanded won't cut down fatalities. Horse racing is worried about perception, but changing the way a jockey whips a horse isn't going to attract one new bettor (it is still whipping anyway). The one's on the outside complaining of the cruelty of horse racing wouldn't bet if cyborgs replaced horses. The softer whip and restriction of the amount of times a horse can be whipped is the way to go. It should stop there. And at least give those two new rules a chance to show some long term results before putting jockeys (especially those who have been at it for a long time) in a position to switch the way they are used to doing things. From a handicapping perspective, I have less confidence when I know the jockeys are doing something they are not used to. Just educate the public on the softer whip, end of story.<br />
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I do think that changing to artificial surfaces is necessary to keep the game alive. Horse fatalities are an issue that could be the final nail in the coffin for the industry (see Florida greyhound racing). No matter how much one hates to handicap races on Tapeta (I don't mind it), you can't argue that Tapeta surfaces produce less deaths. A soft tissue injury isn't the same thing as a dead horse no matter how you look at it. There is no way to eliminate all deaths in horse racing, but cutting down the number should be a thing to do.<br />
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Drugs and super trainers who may be using them on horses hurt the game. Owners bring out newbies to the track. Some could start betting, some could enter the game as new owners in a partnership. When super trainers dominate, owners start to disappear. You can't claim from them, and you don't want to drop a horse in for a win knowing you might face one of their horses who has a great chance of beating you, and to top it off, you lose your horse to the super trainer outfit.<br />
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When it comes to drugs and the growing the game with everyday Horseplayers, I don't think overall handle is hurt, but one might stop wagering at one track in favor of others. Eliminating drugs by itself won't help grow the game. Now, if you lower takeout enough to create visible winners, getting rid of drugs will be demanded by the newer players.<br />
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<b>What Can Horse Racing Do To Attract New Players?</b><br />
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Here is <a href="https://cangamble.blogspot.com/2012/12/shh-i-know-how-to-grow-horse-racing.html">what I wrote 7 years ago</a>:<br />
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<i>NATION-WIDE LOTTERY<br />
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A great way to get more customers is to have a nation wide lottery where tickets can be bought at store kiosks, online at ADWs (the races involved must be carried by all ADWs), and at all tracks, there should be no reason why someone who wants to buy a ticket can't. The lottery should go once a week (Saturdays). A Pick 8. Field size must be large in order to possibly have carryovers, so races need to picked with weather reports in mind.<br />
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A website should be created with free past performances for all the races involved. A quick sheet giving the top contenders for each race should be available at tracks and store kiosks. Players can do quick picks, contender quick picks, or pick their own. Consolation prizes can be awarded to those who pick the most winners on carryover days, or the second most winners when the pool is won, as well as those who pick the first four or last four winners, thus keeping the player's interest alive for many of the races.<br />
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A nation-wide lottery a sure fire way to get more people introduced to horse racing.</i><br />
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If the nation-wide jackpots are high enough, I see no reason why people who have little understanding when it comes to handicapping, won't take a shot at a quick pick, and then eventually some will try to learn a bit more and who knows, maybe bet the odd individual race eventually.<br />
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The other way to attract newbies is with a low takeout exchange for win and show wagering. It can't just be Jersey. Liquidity is needed. Horse racing is perfect for exchange wagering. Newbies, you know the ones with the short term attention span will love it. The constant cashing will give the casual player the illusion that long term winning is just a little more work away, and there will be actual long term winners created. I think exchange betting should eliminate parimutuel pools for win place and show in a perfect world. Bottom line on WPS for tracks will most likely increase if done correctly and I believe that it will create more players getting involved in parimutuel exotic wagering as the game becomes more popular.<br />
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Horse racing can continue to go with the status quo: shrinking handle, especially taking inflation and population growth into account, or they can get with the program. Unfortunately, if horse racing's history read like a past performance chart, it would appear that a super trainer wouldn't even attempt to touch this horse.<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-55721742081237973772019-05-07T16:34:00.002-04:002019-05-07T17:15:42.443-04:00My Two Cents On The Kentucky Derby DQThe Kentucky Derby is a throw the ref whistle away race. With 19 or 20 young horses going a mile and a quarter, you have to expect infractions. Throw in a wet track, and it is next to impossible not to have cutting off, herding, checking, etc. Watch any Derby replay ever run and find me a race where no infractions occurred. Heck, watch the 18 horse during the first furlong and the havoc he causes.<br />
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The Stewards know this is a throw the whistle away race going in. This is why they didn't put up an inquiry, in fact, objections in the Derby are rare. To my knowledge, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/05/05/brief-history-kentucky-derby-fouls-inquiries-disqualifications/?utm_term=.87a904813975">the Stewards have not initiated any of them</a>.<br />
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Had a jockey claim of foul not been made on Saturday, I contend that 99% of horse racing's fans and bettors would be completely content with Maximum Security, the best horse in the race by far, winning the race, even if an analyst or two pointed out that there was a possible infraction. The analysts would be able to say that an inquiry wasn't called because "it is the Kentucky Derby, historically an aggressively ridden race, this year on a sloppy racetrack." And you know what? That would have been fine and true. <br />
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Had that happened, the biggest debate among gamblers would be the magical re-breaking of Maximum Security at the head of the stretch. Many might be speculating on the drug results. Not too many people care about that right now. Just an aside, the newbies would be seeing the re-breaking as the signs of a super horse. It would actually be good for horse racing in the short term.<br />
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But there was a claim of foul. The jockeys who claimed foul put the Stewards between a rock and a hard place. An obvious infraction in high definition. Believe me, I can't begrudge their decision even though I disagree with it. Now, instead of 99% of people happy with the best horse winning the race, only around 50% are happy what's his name was placed first.<br />
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There is a lot of subjectivity going around. Did War of Will herd a horse or two making his way to the outside? Did he initiate contact with Maximum Security causing the shift in the first place? Or did Maximum security shy away from reflections on the track or was he spooked by the crowd? The last two possibilities were obviously not good enough excuses to keep in first place ONCE THE FOUL WAS CALLED.<br />
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Again, this decision wasn't cut and dry, that is why it took so long to reach a verdict.<br />
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I'm from the school that if a unanimous decision can't be made within three minutes, let the results stand. I know there are quite a few who are in the take as much time as you want to get it right camp, I just disagree. I also disagree with interviewing the jockeys. Do basketball or football refs interview the players when doing play reviews?<br />
<br />
So what happens next? I think a pretty rough precedence has been set. More claims of foul are going to be made and more horses are going to be thrown out, even in big races. And the Kentucky Derby could become a big casualty because of the all the infractions that happen in the most exciting two minutes in sports.<br />
<br />
The smart thing to do will be to reduce the field size to 14 starting next year. I don't think it will hurt betting by doing that. It might hurt premium seating a bit because 6 less connections will show up on Derby day, but that is a small price to pay to avoid ruining the Derby going forward.<br />
<br />
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Ci_ychn7ga0" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-39125943327862331372019-01-08T11:51:00.002-05:002019-01-10T13:04:27.925-05:00What Is Cheating In Horse Racing?When I see accusations that a trainer with a high win percentage cheats I have to ask "What Is Cheating?" There is lots of buzz lately, both pro and con, due <a href="https://torontosun.com/sports/horse-racing/hard-work-or-cheating-successful-thoroughbred-trainer-norm-mcknight-says-unproven-allegations-are-taking-their-toll">to a recent Sun article</a>. The article doesn't really define what cheating is or where the line is drawn. It is hard to cheat when you can't define what cheating is. Cheating of course includes overages and jockeys using buzzers, but what else does cheating include?<br />
<br />
Let me bore you with my thoughts.<br />
<br />
I recently conducted an unscientific poll on Twitter. The results were the opposite of what I expected:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Horse racing has banned substances, but no list of approved substances. If a trainer uses a substance that may enhance a horse's performance but it is not a banned substance, is it cheating?</p>— Cangamble (@Cangamble) <a href="https://twitter.com/Cangamble/status/1074677849397841920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 17, 2018</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><br />
<br />
This illustrates how subjective cheating in horse racing is.<br />
<br />
My definition of a super trainer is someone who wins a very high percentage of races. I'll go one step further. I've watched thousands of races in my lifetime and the one thing I've noticed about recent super trainers is the way their horses tend to have a second wind during the stretch run, as if they were buzzed or as if an oxygen tank was turned on mid stretch causing the horse to rebreak.<br />
<br />
I've written about super trainers as far back <a href="http://cangamble.blogspot.com/2010/09/is-itpp-super-trainers-drug-of-choice.html">as 9 years ago</a>. It is a fact that some (many?) trainers push the envelope and try new things, things that aren't tested for. We know that, because some have been "caught" doing that. But where is the line when it comes to cheating?<br />
<br />
Trainers can use non banned supplements to build a horse up. Is that cheating?<br />
<br />
Trainers can use drugs that aren't being tested for to do the same. Is that cheating?<br />
<br />
Trainers can use hyperbaric oxygen chambers to build up a horse. Is that cheating?<br />
<br />
Trainers can use shock waves or acupuncture to lessen pain. Is that cheating?<br />
<br />
What about using plant derivatives to kill pain or increase red blood cell counts? Is that cheating?<br />
<br />
I hope you see where I'm coming from. Here is where I'm getting at:<br />
<br />
I'm not sure about just going the hay and oats way, <b>but in order to curb "cheating" there has to be a definitive list of approved drugs and treatments. Anything not on the list would count as cheating.</b><br />
Will that stop cheating? It depends on the on the consequences when one gets caught. Right now, there isn't much of a deterrence out there. How can there be under today's guidelines and rules? <br />
<br />
<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-82280526165358857392018-08-08T09:04:00.000-04:002018-08-08T13:23:45.055-04:00Harness Racing Track Takeout Chart<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNvi4me-okGStoObOdmAn557ZEwVomgmalJtDOAYhd-Zte002j2lokqp3McU5RRgbAlLbKHrIxH4pXgk14PN7kYowwqrEH6W1fvDQ76LQwwui9Ho_HLoz9Ef4ZMFYdtjajoB8mIg/s1600/Harnesstakeout2018.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNvi4me-okGStoObOdmAn557ZEwVomgmalJtDOAYhd-Zte002j2lokqp3McU5RRgbAlLbKHrIxH4pXgk14PN7kYowwqrEH6W1fvDQ76LQwwui9Ho_HLoz9Ef4ZMFYdtjajoB8mIg/s640/Harnesstakeout2018.png" width="448" height="640" data-original-width="557" data-original-height="795" /></a></div><br />
This chart was recently published in <a href="http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanamonthly.html">HANA's free e-magazine Horseplayer Monthly</a>. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-2027818014486198892018-06-30T11:02:00.000-04:002018-07-01T20:46:51.140-04:00Horse Racing Fixes That Won't Happen, Queen's Plate PicksI've been doing this blog for quite some time. I've identified horse racing's biggest problems and offered numerous solutions but very few take. It is very frustrating, but what the heck, I have a few minutes of spare time, so lets play the broken record again.<br />
<br />
TAKEOUT<br />
<br />
People have many choices when it comes to gambling, from casinos to lottery tickets to fantasy sports. Let's pretend you didn't have a clue about horse racing and decided to investigate it. With a little sleuthing you found out that for every $100 bet, the track only pays out $79. If you were a sane rational human being, would you need to investigate any further? Even compared to fantasy sports where the takeout is around 11%-12% (it used to be 9-11%), horse racing's takeout is far too high to create any sort of buzz. <br />
<br />
Can someone become a professional horseplayer anymore and work their way from their mom's basement to Rosedale mansion? Of course not. Horse racing doesn't even try to give you that impression anymore, they've given up on it because it would be an outright lie. Poker and fantasy sports had their success stories, and those very few success stories brought thousands of new players in. News of success stories in gambling have fizzled out as the house advantage as been forced up in the past few years due to extraordinary costs (legal, state licensing, taxes, etc.) gambling companies have had to endure. This hinders growth considerably. <br />
<br />
There is no way any horse racing wager should have a takeout of more than 15%, 12% tops for win place and show. But this will never happen because horse racing execs only think short term, as do horsemen groups which have influence on takeout rates in many jurisdictions. Even players who have no clue what the takeout rate is, look into their empty wallet and realize how quickly it was emptied and how little action they had for their buck compared to most other forms of gambling. <br />
<br />
With sports betting (average takeout 5%) on the immediate horizon, horse racing is in a heap of trouble.<br />
<br />
LASIX<br />
<br />
I watched the entire Congressional Hearings on the Horseracing Integrity Act. I'm still not comfortable with horse racing being one word, but besides that, the hearing was pretty much about Lasix.<br />
Elimination of race day Lasix is a no-brainer. Unfortunately, the proper simple case was not made. <br />
<br />
Fact is that horses have one third the lifetime starts that they used to before Lasix became widespread legal. There are other factors besides Lasix which have caused the decline in starts, such as trainers who charge more pick and choose races to keep their averages up, good horses retiring way too early, and a weakening of the breed (which can be linked to Lasix and other drugs).<br />
<br />
Yes, other methods to prevent bleeding were used in the old days, but they were mostly only used on known bleeders. But lets say that the 5% of horse who really need race day Lasix are taken out of racing altogether. You end up with 90-95% averaging double or triple the amount of lifetime starts they have today. Think of the field sizes and bigger field sizes means more betting.<br />
<br />
Lasix and other drugs drains horses. Back in the 60's and early 70's horse could easily race once a week. Not anymore.<br />
<br />
And contrary to what some drug dependent trainers and their owners might say, <a href="https://scholar.google.ca/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=lasix+masking+agent&btnG=">Lasix has been used historically to mask other drugs</a>. Of course, this would be drugs that are tested for. No need to mask drugs not tested for.<br />
<br />
Problem is that most of the biggest barns do not want to change the status quo. They are on top, and any changes to what is legal and what isn't will most likely mean they won't be on top anymore.<br />
And of course vets don't want to lose their cash cow. Just administering Lasix on race day is a multi million dollar business in North America on its own, and if you add in the other part of the kitchen sink super trainers like to throw into a horse's system prior to a race, including drugs that may be masked, vets make out very good. It won't be so good, if race day drugs are banned.<br />
<br />
DRUGS AND SUPER TRAINERS<br />
<br />
Pretty obvious that if a trainer hits at 25% or greater running against field sizes that average 7 or more, they are using stuff that isn't being tested for. There are only so many ways to train a horse, and it only seems logical that a trainer with 4 horses who is putting in the work, should at least be on the same playing field as a trainer who has 100+ horses and rarely shows up at the track where the horse races. <br />
<br />
Horse racing "cheaters" seem to be a step above the testers, even though they are a step behind cheating bicyclists and body builders. As long as Lasix is allowed, testing horses after a race is futile. The ones who are knowingly pushing the limits on legal drugs or banned drugs, pretty much know they won't get a positive. Save money, only test the winners. What is really needed is a list of drugs that trainers can use and they have to stick to those drugs ONLY. If caught using anything else, fines and suspensions need to hurt them. There needs to be a deterrent. I also think there should be more money devoted to ANONYMOUS narcs. <br />
<br />
Something needs to be done, as owners are getting more and more discouraged when they lose to that guy/gal. We all know who that guy is. Every track has a few that guys. And the thing is that owners are good to grow the game. They bring new people to the track: Potential owners and bettors. I actually think this is one issue that racetracks support.<br />
<br />
Ban race day Lasix and stop testing horses that don't win after a race, and maybe use those funds for retired horses and injured jockey. Sounds good to me.<br />
<br />
HARNESS RACING<br />
<br />
They've had ample chance and time to reduce takeout and try to lure thoroughbred players. Handle generally sucks for most tracks and the overwhelming majority of purse money for these tracks comes from slots. But for some unknown reason, they won't adopt my maximum 15% takeout rule.<br />
<br />
What else can be done? Free past performances will help a lot. If every harness track had free past performances with decent speed figures (yeah I know speed figures aren't as good in Standardbred racing, but we are talking crossover gamblers now).<br />
<br />
Another thing they can do at 1/2 or 5/8th tracks is to have separate draws for post positions. I've proposed this before as well. Crickets. How this works is horses who finished first at the same class or greater last two races, along with horses who finished 2nd last race same condition or greater and droppers who finished 4th or better last start all draw for the worst post positions while all the other horses draw for the best positions (<br />
<br />
<br />
QUEEN'S PLATE PICKS<br />
<br />
I used to be good at picking the winner in the Queen's Plate. Lately, not so good. I think the last winner I picked was Edenwold back in 2006. This year I'm banking on the Due Theory<br />
<br />
I've got the race down to "only" 6 contenders. Here they are in program order: <br />
<br />
7. Dixie Moon - beat a tough filly last time out. That race may cause a bounce, and something tells me the distance may prevent a top race by her.<br />
9. Say The Word - looks like one who will like the distance. Speed figs put him right in the mix, and his odds should be more than decent. Trainer Motion knows what he is doing. We might just see a peak performance today.<br />
10. Telekinesis - Lumbered to victory in the Trial. His running style might be compromised with post 10, and the distance might be too far. I don't see value but figs are good enough.<br />
11. Wonder Gadot- Her Kentucky Oaks speed fig destroys this field, but it destroyed the field in the Oaks as well, and she lost. She has had three tough races in a row where she has been the bridesmaid. Do you want to take your chances on a win shy filly in 35 degrees Celsius heat? If she is less than 9-2, probably not.<br />
15. Aheadbyacentury - He was racing for third in the Trial and got it. Galloped out well. The distance shouldn't be an issue, and he has arguably the best Woodbine jockey aboard. With a good trip he could be right there at a really nice price.<br />
16. Rose's Vision - Second best in the Trial. The post position should hurt his chances today due to his running style, but his speed figures give him a chance if he has a peak race in him.<br />
<br />
I'm going to go for value and make Aheadbyacentury my pick.<br />
<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-75366470532086430822018-04-13T10:54:00.000-04:002018-04-13T10:55:05.386-04:00Horse Racing Bet Ideas To Compete With Sports BettingIt looks like horse racing very soon will have to face the inevitable, and compete with sports betting. Horse racing already had to deal with slots. Luckily, in most jurisdictions, the horse racing industry was deemed important enough to get a piece of slots revenues.<br />
It might be a tougher sell in many jurisdictions when it comes to sports betting though. <br />
<br />
Lots of questions are still unanswered, like who is going to be the risk taker since betting on sports in its purest and most popular form is not parimutuel? Will tracks and ADWs <br />
be the major hub for sports betting or will Daily Fantasy Sports sites be the biggest player? What cut, if any, will the horse racing industry receive? <br />
<br />
The sports leagues are the ones putting on the show, and they are asking for 0.5% of the total handle. Vegas publishes their win numbers every month on all forms of betting. For sports betting, it is usually around 5% of the total handle and it includes single game bets and parlays (which have a larger" juice" rate than the estimated 4.5% for individual games). That means the leagues will most likely be getting around 10% of gross profits. When you add in the states cut and the operator/risk taker cut, there probably won't be much left for horse racing even if they do get a cut. <br />
<br />
So let's look at a few bets that horse racing can put out there to directly compete with sports betting. The advantage horse racing has is that a race is over in 2 minutes, while a game is over in 2-3 hours. Even if a parlay is experimented with, it can be over in less than an hour. <br />
<br />
The Odds Even Bet<br />
This is not a new idea. It has been tried, unsuccessfully, in the past. A parimutuel wager with a low takeout where one has the option to take all the even numbered horses or all the odd numbered horses in a race. Making this kind of bet anything but <br />
a parimutuel wager would be suicide for a racetrack, but this kind of bet, if promoted nationally, could become successful, and it could be a major stepping stone to exchange wagering. This bet can also be a parlay bet using multiple races with a higher takeout to put it on an equal footing with sports betting.<br />
<br />
The Jockey Team Bet<br />
This is a variation of the jockey head to head bet which again has been tried before. Again, this needs to be parimutuel. This idea has quite a few variations that can be used. For example, a computer can figure out which jockeys have the most mounts in North America for race cards that begin between 12 and 2 EDT. Using a formula that incorporates morning line odds, two close to equal teams of 3 jockeys can then compete head to head for total wins.<br />
<br />
The Winning Payout Bet<br />
This is a variation of the Odds Even Bet. This has to be another low takeout parimutuel bet. For example, lets assume it is 10 horse field, horseplayers can bet over or under a win payout of $12.55. Of course, tracks can use their historical mean payout price for races of X number of horses as the target price so that there is a good chance that there will be equal action which means a $1.90+ payoff for both sides of the bet, which is equal to sports betting. This too can be a parlay bet as well, using multiple races.<br />
<br />
<br />
The above piece was recently published in HANA's Horseplayer Monthly. Check out <a href="http://horseplayersassociation.org/apr18issue.pdf">April's Edition</a>, there is a lot of good info and it is free.<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-25367114998013576912018-03-26T17:22:00.000-04:002018-03-26T17:22:20.579-04:00THE JUICE, THE VIG, THE HOUSE EDGE, THE TAKEOUTWith sports betting most likely becoming a reality in the USA in the very near future, I thought it might be a good time to re-publish an article I wrote for <a href="http://horseplayersassociation.org/apr16issue.pdf">HANA two years ago</a> comparing horse racing's competition. For what it is worth, horse racing takeouts range from bet type to bet type and track to track (12% - 31%), though it is estimated to collectively be between 21-22%, not taking rebates or other incentives into account:<br />
<br />
<b>Sports Betting:</b> When it comes to traditionally betting a single game against the spread, in theory, the house edge is 4.76% without taking pushes into account. Other factors come into play though. Bookmakers do not usually make the spread with a 50/50 outcome in mind, but rather make the number one in which they think will attract 50% of the money each way. This could create an underlay on the dog when a good and popular team is favored, for example.<br />
<br />
Two team parlays generally pay 2.6-1 which translates into a 10% house edge. However, because one might be able to find two real underlays, and because there are certain tendencies when betting the spread and over under in a single game (for example, when there is a home favorite in football and lets say the over under number is 42, there are two outcomes which dominate, the home team under, and the away team and the over, which is due to the strategies employed by teams in the second half depending on the lead). Bottom line is that the collective edge is certainly less than 10%,<br />
<br />
Three team parlays generally pay 6-1, but there are 8 outcomes which means the edge is 12.5% if random selections are made.<br />
<br />
Vegas publishes their win rate. Collectively on sports betting it is just a little more than 5% of total handle (it varies very slightly year to year). <br />
<br />
<b>Lotteries:</b> State lotteries generally payout approximately 50% of the total money taken in. Comparing horse racing to lotteries in often done and always silly. When someone buys a lottery ticket they are usually buying a dream, it is an entertainment expense in a way as one fantasizes about retiring to their own Island. <br />
<br />
Scratch lottery tickets, have an expected payout range in line with horse race exotic wagers. <br />
<br />
<b>Blackjack: </b> If one plays by the rules without counting, the house edge is only .5%. Though, it sounds like the best bang for a gambler's buck, a bankroll can disappear pretty quickly when playing 75 hands per hour. Still, the game is still perceived as beatable mostly thanks to stories of counters being barred by casinos.<br />
<br />
<b>Craps:</b> Odds on resolved bets range from 0% to 11%, and the collective edge the house has is around 1-1.5%. This is a game that is somewhat complicated and mathematically impossible to win at long term for even the best players, not the best of combinations.<br />
<br />
<b>Slots:</b> The house edge on slot machines ranges from 2% to 15% (collectively around 8%). The exact amount a machine wins long term can be programmed by the operator. Unless one hits a huge progressive jackpot and then quits slots, this game is impossible to win at long term. <br />
<br />
Some operators have admitted to "loosen" machines at peak hours. The theory behind this is when the casino is full, the sound of winning will help hook players for more repeat business. When it comes to horse racing, an argument can be made that is the reverse of this, higher takeout on bigger days because many just play on big days, while dropping takeout the rest of the year to keep the regulars in action longer while keeping them from focusing on other forms of gambling. This approach hasn't been tried yet. <br />
<br />
<b>Roulette:</b> Thanks to O and OO the house edge is 5.26%, as long as the wheel doesn't have any flaws. This game is far less intimidating and a little less social than craps and it requires the same zero skill level as slots. If you play roulette for 14 days straight, you will lose over 5% of your total wagers.<br />
<br />
<b>Poker:</b> The rake for poker is 2-5%. Skill is involved when it comes to knowing probabilities, and if playing live, reading other players. A player with superior skill has a chance to win long term due to relatively low rake.<br />
<br />
<b>Daily Fantasy Sports:</b> DFS was growing exponentially in popularity prior to state regulations. DFS likes to call their house edge a commission, and whatever you want to call it, it is around 9-12%. It is definitely a game of skill as well as it is gambling. Estimates are that the top 2% of the total players make money and also are responsible for a very high percentage of what is played in total. This means that at this time, for those with superior skill, the game can be beaten long term. <br />
<br />
DFS is extremely similar to horse racing when it comes to degree of difficulty and homework needed to make good selection, though horse racing handicapping has a higher learning curve. DFS seems to be attracting players, especially millennials, because it is perceived as beatable by at least a few.<br />
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-23046877777371593822017-10-30T12:29:00.003-04:002017-10-30T12:37:17.430-04:00The New NBA Timeout Rule and Horse RacingIf the customer doesn't like something, businesses usually do something about it, if they can. The NBA is a perfect example of looking to satisfy customers, though sometimes they are slow to react, but nowhere nearly as slow as horse racing. <br />
<br />
I remember the ABA. Besides being known for their psychedelic fake basketball and the great Dr. J, they were way ahead of the curve as they introduced the 3 point basket in 1967 when their league formed (It was actually introduced by <a href="https://www.usab.com/youth/news/2011/06/the-history-of-the-3-pointer.aspx">the very short live ABL in 1961</a>). The rule made a lot of sense, giving a team the ability to make a long dramatic shot to win or tie a close game, and even as a teenager, I thought that when the ABA merged with the NBA, the three point shot would be part of the merger. It took another 4 years for the NBA to bring that extra bit of excitement to their league, but the point is that they did it.<br />
<br />
Lately we've seen quite a few tweaks from speeding up the game to taking away plays that exploited the rules (like the Hack-A-Shaq tweak that came into effect a year ago). They still have to figure out how to handle <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2017/05/15/the-three-shot-fouls-spike-clever-manipulation-of-nba-rules-or-a-stain-on-the-game/?utm_term=.18983b7548bb">the three point foul lean in</a>, but that is tough nut to crack, but they'll get to it, because customers don't like it.<br />
<br />
The last two minutes of the game were starting to get infuriating. Way too many timeouts were being called. I believe it got progressively worse the past few years. In a close game, there was pretty much a timeout every time the ball changed hands. It almost became a gimme that a timeout would be called after a made basket. From a customer's perspective there was no flow, it took up to a half hour to watch 2 minutes, and that meant way too many commercials as well.<br />
<br />
It was not surprising that<a href="http://www.nba.com/article/2017/07/12/nba-board-governors-timeout-rules-game-flow-trade-deadline#/"> the NBA made the change this summer</a>. Reducing the amount of timeouts that can be called in a game and limiting the amount of timeouts that can be called in the last two minutes and overtime.<br />
<br />
This brings us to horse racing. The obvious parallel here is the notorious post time drag. This is a fairly new phenomenon, first it was only really noticed at one track, and somehow bean counter track executives from all over North America saw this as a money maker, and it really isn't. Horse racing, with falling handle (especially when taking inflation and a larger population into account) should be doing whatever they can do to not piss off their customers (By customers, I mean horseplayers, not horsemen, but that is another story). <br />
<br />
There can't possibly be one bettor on this planet who enjoys post drag. And it really is unnecessary. NYRA, who seems to do things right relative to the industry as a whole, does not participate in post drag, and lately they've been bucking the trend when it comes to handle. Remember track execs, higher handle generally means there are more eyes on your racetrack.<br />
<br />
If horseplayers know there is no post drag, they will bet earlier. And more importantly, they won't have another reason to be upset. From high takeout to super trainers and synthetic drugs and a few things in between, horse racing doesn't need to give their customers another reason to stop playing.<br />
<br />
The problem is that horse racing does not have a commissioner to lay down the law and enforce things. They really need one. See <a href="http://cangamble.blogspot.ca/2017/08/what-might-happen-if-horse-racing-had.html">WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF HORSE RACING HAD A COMMISSIONER </a> <br />
<br />
<br />
One final thing, thank you Michael Jordan for getting the NBA to go with longer baggy shorts in 1984.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-72251938857622377782017-08-04T16:03:00.000-04:002017-08-04T16:03:31.658-04:00WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF HORSE RACING HAD A COMMISSIONERLet's look into into future, maybe 3 years from now or maybe 203 years from now. Racetrack owners will finally get together and decide that since successful sports such as baseball, football and basketball all have<br />
Commissioners, horse racing should have a Commissioner too. Commissioners have one major goal and that is to grow the game's customer base while being mindful of the health of the athlete. They use uniform rules that are subject to change (if it is found that certain rules may cause too many customers to stray from their game, or if athletes are sustaining too many injuries). Commissioners have an ace in the hole, they can objectively impose significant fines and suspensions for cheating or bad behavior.<br />
<br />
Here is some of what a Racing Commissioner in a centralized office can accomplish:<br />
<br />
Uniform fines and suspensions. If a L.A. Laker player gets caught doing drugs in L.A., he isn't only suspended in L.A. He can't play anywhere for however long the suspension is. If a Knick is caught doing exactly the same thing, he gets the exact same fine and/or suspension. This same standard will now apply in horse racing.<br />
<br />
Uniform medications. This is a no-brainer. As the new Horse Racing Integrity Act suggests, make a list of what can go into a horse's system and when, and make everything else illegal. This list should also include procedures such as "doing the stifles," and even go as far as regulating hyperbaric chamber use. All procedures should be reported to the track and that info should be reported to the commissioner's office and posted on their website so horseplayers and horsemen alike can view it. The NFL has no problem making public when a player stubs his to even though it is illegal to bet on football nudge nudge wink wink.<br />
<br />
The Commissioner's Office will be in charge of monitoring out of competition testing as well. It should also be in charge of hiring the testers and placing them in the right areas.<br />
<br />
Uniform minimum wagering bet types. This will happen by osmosis if there is a Commissioner. Payouts also will be uniform (tris will either show a payoff based on $1 or 50 cent bet at every track, for example).<br />
<br />
Uniform whipping rules. Whether it is decided that hitting a horse more than three times in succession is a no no, or if whips are eventually banned, every racetrack participant will operate under the same set of rules.<br />
<br />
Of course, track owners will be invited to Hawaii, where betting on horses will be legal by then, to participate in an annual Owner's Meeting where new proposed rules can be suggested and decided upon.... by the Commissioner's Rules Committee. That committee will be made up of mainly horseplayers.<br />
<br />
Speaking of Hawaii, a Commissioner's office might be able to focus resources to lobby to legalize horse race wagering in states that do not allow horse racing gambling at all and/or over the internet. <br />
<br />
The office can be a place to go to with new innovations. A Commissioner whose interest is to grow the customer base would most likely push through exchange wagering and even a national lottery.<br />
<br />
A centralized Inquiry Center. There will be two sets of eyes on each live race to look for fouls when not called by jockeys. If there is an inquiry, the same three judges get to make a decision whether the potential interference just happened at Delaware Park or Saratoga or both. It should be noted that the horseplayers will inevitably decide if they want the standard to be "if a horse wouldn't have beat the horse who interfered with it anyway, there is no DQ" or "there will be a DQ for any interference." This is where the ability to poll the customer comes into play. Also, in basketball, there is no need to hear from a player who may or may not have tipped a ball out of bounds. The same line of thinking should work with objective stewards not having to hear from jockeys. The replays should be enough to tell the whole story. If three stewards can't come to a full agreement, the results should stand, and there should be no need for an appeal. The stewards will also use objective standards when it comes to fair starts. <br />
<br />
The reason there won't be too many overlapping inquiries is because the Commissioner's Office will have final say on scheduling races. Tracks will submit the amount of race dates, their preferred post times and actual dates, and the commissioner's office will do its best to accommodate those race dates and also space all races as much as is humanely possible so races at multiple tracks don't go off at the same time nearly as much as they do right now. They might even be able to help negotiate optimal times with racetracks which will help racetracks be as profitable as possible. <br />
<br />
And yes, there will heavy fines for post drag violations. Bettors hate it, and that is what matters to the Commish.<br />
<br />
There are other things the Commissioner can look after, like capping takeout and push to eliminate breakage, but just about everything above can't be achieved without some form of a centralized body. <br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
I wrote the above article in the July edition of <a href="http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanamonthly.html">Horseplayers of North America's free e-magazine Horseplayer Monthly July 2017 Edition</a>. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-45966072781045322542017-07-02T11:23:00.001-04:002017-07-02T11:23:15.765-04:002017 Queen's Plate PredictionsQueen's Plate Day is upon us once more and as a Canadian who blogs about horse racing, albeit very sparingly these days, I feel an obligation to at least give my picks for the race.<br />
<br />
Because I avoid filly repeat winners at all costs, the fact that the morning line favorite is exactly that means that there might just be some value in this race. Lightly raced Holy Helena is coming off a top figure in the Oaks and a same day time that was one full second better than the Plate Trial. It is almost certain that she will bounce, the question is how much. I'm envisioning midway through the far turn, generally when jockey Luis Contreras asks his horses to go, a bit of life followed by an empty sign at the 1/8th pole.<br />
<br />
So who do I like? It is very hard to really like anyone coming from the Plate Trial, but if were to pick the one with the best chance, it would be King and His Court. He looks like he can improve off that last race and because he had success as a two year old at Woodbine going a mile and an eighth, I expect him to handle the extra eighth of a mile.<br />
<br />
I'm pitching Guy Caballero who seemed to fall into a win. It is possible he can improve, but he just doesn't seem good enough. State of Honor is another horse who will probably take action because of who he faced in the past, but he looks like a 7 furlong to a mile horse. If he has any pressure on the lead, look for him to falter by the top of the stretch. Without pressure he still should be passed by at least 3 comers.<br />
<br />
The top figure horse (if you eliminate the filly) is Channel Maker. I see the one post as a benefit in the Plate. I don't like horses off over a month going this kind of distance, but these days 35 days is acceptable. The obvious question is can he get the distance? He seems to be a mile and sixteenth horse, so he'll need a good trip to win the race, any trouble, and it will be an uphill climb.<br />
<br />
Malibu Secret is a real mystery. Something tells me his entire training campaign this year has had one goal in mind and that is the Plate. His numbers put him in the hunt here.<br />
<br />
It can't go without saying that Eurico Rosa Da Silva took Tiz A Slam in this race. Right now, he looks like a better grasser. His numbers make him a contender, but his post might be too hard to overcome. Finish 3rd or 4th is a good possibility for him.<br />
<br />
Aurora Way was very impressive beating up on maidens in his only race, but his speed fig coupled with his post today doesn't do it for me. <br />
<br />
Chad Brown's filly Inflexibility (named after racing's stance against recognizing that horse racing is about gambling not so much sport) may improve off her last, and I can see her even beating Holy Helena. Even so, at best she might get fourth.<br />
<br />
Spirit of Caledon is another who might just improve enough and get a good enough trip to graze the superfecta.<br />
<br />
As for the other horses not mentioned, I just don't like them enough to mention them, and if they run in on me, I'll turn the page, I have no issues turning the page regardless if the race has a million dollar purse or a $10,000 purse.<br />
<br />
My official picks: 1.6.8.12<br />
<br />
Fort Erie's Pregame Show is full of Queen's Plate Picks by horsemen in the backstretch:<br />
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/yX1e7FvbhQc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-6109993306995734412017-06-09T10:46:00.000-04:002017-06-09T10:46:49.675-04:00Is It Time For The Omni?The Omni wager, also known as the Swinger has spread into North America, not yet on any US or Canadian's track betting menus, but it is available to North American Horseplayers on South Africa and Hong Kong cards. If you play it you no longer have to say things like "Ist and 3rd again, the story of my life," because if you finish 1st and 3rd, you cash. <br />
<br />
After takeout is removed from the Omni pool, the balance is divided by three. One third goes to those who wagered on the 1st and 2nd finishers, another third goes to those who wagered on the 1st and 3rd finishers, and the final third goes to those who wagered on the horses who finished 2nd and 3rd. In other words, it is about 3 times more likely that one would cash this wager as opposed to playing an exacta box or quinella. Of course, the payout is around one third of what an exacta box would pay as well.<br />
<br />
It is a wager that could fly with new players. If you look at the success of Daily Fantasy Sports, churn is a key factor. Many players are content when they double their money for the night as they have action money for the next couple of days without having to go to the well, while also keeping an eye on the big prize. As an entry level wager, the Omni offers enough of a reward to put a smile on the face of a newbie, while also introducing them to the idea of using multiple horses which leads to understanding handicapping more which could lead to more horizontal and vertical wagers where bigger payoffs occur.<br />
<br />
The Omni was set to debut at Aqueduct in 2014 with a 15% takeout, but for some reason, the December 2013 news releases never came to fruition. It could be argued that NYRA understands churn and growing business more than most, if not all organizations out there today. The fact they don't offer jackpot bets is evidence of that, and if anyone is going to begin offering the Omni at a North American track, it will probably be them. <br />
<br />
The big problem regarding the Omni is that pools are already diluted as players have too many options each race. Pool size is important to value players, so it might take a while for the Omni to catch on, however, if racing is to grow, the focus should be on high churn low takeout wagers as opposed to the current jackpot fad, that is lazily becoming available at more and more tracks hope to fluke into a Gulfstream Park Rainbow 6 situation rather than think out of the box for ways to grow handle. Jackpot wagers create little to no churn and create no new long term players, the Omni could do the opposite. <br />
<br />
How about repealing and replacing jackpot bets, Hi 5s and high takeout superfectas in races with less than 7 betting interests with a low takeout Omni?Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-7316192661534194722017-04-19T11:26:00.000-04:002017-04-19T11:31:19.987-04:00Jackpot Wagers Are A Hindrance To GrowthMany racetracks have introduced Jackpot bets over the last few years. Beulah Park had the Fortune Pick 6, which was a carbon copy of Puerto Rico's very popular poolpote wager, was going for a few years without much fanfare. Things changed on Derby Day 2010. The Fortune Pick 6 had a carryover of<br />
over $400,000 and there was a mandatory payout that day. The industry took notice as a small racetrack was getting unusual attention, even taking some attention away from the Derby itself. $700,000 in new money was wagered on the Pick 6 that day.<br />
<br />
Some observers saw this as a good thing. <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/05/04/AR2010050402499.html">Even Andy Beyer wrote an optimistic article on Jackpot bets</a>, and he was probably the first person to bring up the idea of developing Hi 5 Jackpot wagers.<br />
<br />
Although Jackpot Bets may be good for an individual racetrack because the majority of money being wagered originates off-track and larger jackpots attract some players to play a track they may not have without the jackpot, these wagers collectively kill churn. Also, there is no evidence to show that Jackpot wagers create new customers and it is common sense that customers are using "extra money" on these bets. Horseplayers do not have "extra money."<br />
<br />
With horse racing handle on a downward spiral, especially when taking into account inflation and population growth, from an industry standpoint it makes no sense take away potential churn. For racing to grow, horseplayers need to be engaged. The biggest way by far that they are engaged is by having money to play the next race or the next day. Keeping horseplayers in the game keeps them focused on horse racing 24/7, this means there is a chance that family members and friends may get exposed to the existing player's passion.<br />
<br />
Not only do Jackpot wagers take significant churn dollars away, when someone hit it (with the exception of mandatory days), the lucky winner is unlikely to churn back the winnings any time soon, also the winner is taxed if the Jackpot is high enough, and this represents lots of money that is forever taken from the potential churn pot.<br />
<br />
It is tough to expect a track like Gulfstream to take its Jackpot bet off the menu as arguably part of its current success could very well be attributed to the Rainbow 6, but this goes hand in hand with today's racetrack culture which is all about competing for a shrinking piece of the pie, not growing the customer base. Problem is that tracks are contributing to the shrinking the pie even more by offering Jackpot wagers.<br />
<br />
Racetracks see Jackpot wagers as a marketing tool, and there certainly is a lot of interest on mandatory payout days at tracks like Woodbine and Gulfstream Park especially, but the build up to those days isn't worth it for the industry. Surely there must be alternatives tracks can use. <br />
<br />
A fifty cent Pick 7 would generate frequent decent carryovers if they become popular, for example. A nationwide lottery similar to Sweden's V75 would be fantastic as it would bring in "extra money" from new potential players, though it would take a lot of cooperation by jurisdictions and racetracks to get it to go. Canada has national lotteries, however, in the US the closest thing to a national lottery is Lucky For Life which now available in 23 states. Another positive about such a lottery is that it potentially can be used by the horse racing industry to get into states that currently do not allow wagering on horse racing. Just a thought.<br />
<br />
This article can also be found in <a href="http://horseplayersassociation.org/april17issue.pdf">HANA's Horseplayer Monthly, Keeneland Edition</a>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-25866814747888673312017-02-21T00:24:00.000-05:002017-02-22T11:14:41.366-05:00Let's Make Horse Racing Great Again!President Donald Trump took some time off Twitter to sign 8 executive order specifically having to do with horse racing.<br />
<br />
"Horse racing is a great American pastime. Many jobs depend on the game. But tragically, the game has been dying for years. It is so bad, that total handle went down even under Obama when just about everything including how much Americans gamble went up. <br />
<br />
I alone can fix horse racing and create many many more jobs in the process. Handle will triple in just two years thanks to these executive orders. Let's make horse racing great again!"<br />
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"I know more about track takeout than the whales do. The lower the takeout, the more money that goes back into the gambler's pocket. And the gambler isn't going to spend that extra money on a course at Trump U., because Trump U. doesn't exist anymore thanks to the dishonest media, no, they are going to bet it back on the horses, and because they'll be able to bet more often, they will tell their family and friends how much fun they are having and how easy it is to bet on the races. Soon everyone in America, except the deceased, the illegal aliens and the minority of voters who voted against me, will be betting on the 7 horse in the Kentucky Derby. I saw something on Fox News that the 7 is a lock this year.<br />
<br />
As for the international 16% cap, I already have Russia and all their racetracks on board."<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_Mfmuk0U0Uj8EKIL0R784DXBYefne0O7VwW8kZUN5pTTrtsXlHlJMt1c8NXPG4htJaX77jQaO_RwKISwLJJEYsi4YD9aACblPVHtlGJdZySKf76UmdiCNMhb67V4LrnW4Nkc9QQ/s1600/Trumpeo2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_Mfmuk0U0Uj8EKIL0R784DXBYefne0O7VwW8kZUN5pTTrtsXlHlJMt1c8NXPG4htJaX77jQaO_RwKISwLJJEYsi4YD9aACblPVHtlGJdZySKf76UmdiCNMhb67V4LrnW4Nkc9QQ/s1600/Trumpeo2.png" /></a></div><br />
"I listen closely to the people, and one of my biggest supporters, I forget the guy's name, told me about this breakage situation. It is so wrong. Gamblers should get back everything they have coming, and once again, the more they have in their pockets, the more they will bet, and the longer they will bet. I ran an extremely successful casino empire, I know all about churn, believe me."<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIlFvKzw8ipM23UPI_FcYG_9w1_V61E3yqL6DZtGEjaiF0TvgZTSZHtGH1wC1uREkigLev3VXdMVjq8t8tzwDhpNpr24fsks5TqV3Ih2vmZ5u9G-Ikz6oWzf6oUhqkJb6jHsU7Vw/s1600/trumpeo11.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgIlFvKzw8ipM23UPI_FcYG_9w1_V61E3yqL6DZtGEjaiF0TvgZTSZHtGH1wC1uREkigLev3VXdMVjq8t8tzwDhpNpr24fsks5TqV3Ih2vmZ5u9G-Ikz6oWzf6oUhqkJb6jHsU7Vw/s1600/trumpeo11.png" /></a></div><br />
"Horse racing needs stars like the Kardashians. If the Kardashians retired to pop out babies, nobody would watch them. And this order should strengthen the breed too. The reason I'm the President at 70 today is because of great genes, everyone in my family has great genes, you don't see me retiring early, only people with bad genes retire early."<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt3bySJVVr3h4E11tPLCZ_yWBqZTP6Y5GLGOshhV-A3iWGqM3ntEWa9w36rps1NPep6kG-jbnbJuhWvc9TNkoS7IrmxCS1qIqtlgFi0-qykf2rFTi-Xn4JhFYbdlmjHLL3FiFcpw/s1600/trumpeo3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjt3bySJVVr3h4E11tPLCZ_yWBqZTP6Y5GLGOshhV-A3iWGqM3ntEWa9w36rps1NPep6kG-jbnbJuhWvc9TNkoS7IrmxCS1qIqtlgFi0-qykf2rFTi-Xn4JhFYbdlmjHLL3FiFcpw/s1600/trumpeo3.png" /></a></div><br />
"I know this race day Lasix ban is going to anger the Bernie Sanders supporting Left but it must be done. No Bernie, if a horse bleeds without Lasix, it shouldn't be given the opportunity to be on an equal playing field with a horse that doesn't bleed. Really bad bleeders need to stop racing, and it is only a few horses that really bleed that much and because Lasix drains a horse, without Lasix horses will be able to come back and race more often, field size will actually increase, and I heard that bettors like bigger field size."<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9WOrCxi3gL8uCTjtYbttCQ9cQQjT9OuJyBATL8cnotBsk-3NIFap81DljfvU7iROiEDgzaI5n9aVPpfqEbutzQ0J7121_-rnqAaxody06qsJy0RFqV4z_8fsG3vHJEO7y3vLSRQ/s1600/trumpeo5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9WOrCxi3gL8uCTjtYbttCQ9cQQjT9OuJyBATL8cnotBsk-3NIFap81DljfvU7iROiEDgzaI5n9aVPpfqEbutzQ0J7121_-rnqAaxody06qsJy0RFqV4z_8fsG3vHJEO7y3vLSRQ/s1600/trumpeo5.png" /></a></div><br />
"Drugs are killing the game. Super trainers don't even train their horses anymore, they just inject the same drugs illegal immigrants use before they swim across the Gulf of Mexico and land on the shores of Florida and Louisiana. These guys have super endurance, you must have seen them swim on TV like I have. This is bad and must be stopped. It will be stopped."<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj55DEMtEo3AkoqJADs-TfphUc8aLN643v7SSDEd1_vP8_sKtgC506tv-_3-7OSRp92rd1iZmzkP0ybCH-8C2kQL8rEG35PI3NAiTbwjuiI8qi8v5qBkBBoUTMz0mIdPYPJSHHrDQ/s1600/trumpeo9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj55DEMtEo3AkoqJADs-TfphUc8aLN643v7SSDEd1_vP8_sKtgC506tv-_3-7OSRp92rd1iZmzkP0ybCH-8C2kQL8rEG35PI3NAiTbwjuiI8qi8v5qBkBBoUTMz0mIdPYPJSHHrDQ/s1600/trumpeo9.png" /></a></div><br />
"We will lower taxes on Americans, and abolishing taxes on racetrack winnings is a great way to start. Once again, the more money that is in the pockets of the gambler, the better off the industry will be in the long run. And I hate Jackpot bets, they are churn killers. My 50% tax will stop players from playing and then tracks will stop offering this silly wager and don't believe tracks who say that Jackpot bets create new players, that is Fake News!"<br />
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"With every state now allowing horse racing betting, handle will go up bigly on that alone. And we'll see more states start building racetracks. If Florida had a racetrack I'd be spending my weekends at the track rather than on the golf course, and now they might build one, maybe even two.<br />
<br />
I also propose that the residing state of the gambler receives 1% of whatever is wagered by residents online, or 1% of what is wagered at tracks or OTBs. Lets face it, someone from South Carolina could be betting at a track in Pennsylvania but other than the holes in his jeans, how can you tell he is from South Carolina? On the internet it is different, you can tell. But some states are out of control on what they charge, Minnesota recently started charging and arm and a leg on their residents wagers, and now no betting company wants to take Minnesota residents except for illegal offshore bookmakers that help fund ISIS. This stops today."<br />
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"I'm an expert on Sweden. If it wasn't for the V75 the only thing they'd have going for them are their meatballs. Most of the blonde women, and I do love women, have left or want to leave because of the daily terrorist attacks. I'd like to sign an executive order that allows a few hundred thousand blonde women from Sweden to come into America as refugees but I was told I could never get it passed."Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-47419934929741053392017-01-24T17:00:00.000-05:002017-01-24T17:00:41.436-05:00Teenagers Are Gambling Their Skins AwayI don't know much about <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ESports">eSports</a>, but apparently quite a few mostly younger people know a whole lot. Not only that but there is a whole lot of (illegal?) gambling go on.<br />
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Teenagers from every jurisdiction in the US and Canada can bet on everything from video game outcomes to coin flips using something called skins as currency. A fifteen year old in Texas can bet on a variety of eSports but 50 year old can't make a legal $2 bet on a horse race online in Texas, Alaska, Georgia, etc. Something is really wrong with this picture. Instead of fighting for a bigger piece of a shrinking pie, horse racing execs need to get together and expand their customer base.<br />
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Simple suggestions: A nationwide horse racing lottery like the V8, lobbying the states that don't allow online horse racing betting to get in the game, and ahem, lowering the takeout. <br />
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I'm sure that the States will come down hard on eSports.....eventually, like they are doing right now with Fantasy Sports. I just don't see any jurisdictions legalizing it. Meanwhile, just like with the online poker surge from a few years back, we just see more proof that young people like to gamble, they just don't seem to like to gamble on parimutuel horse racing. A few visible winners might change that, but that would mean that all racetracks, not one, not two, but all, would have to reduce takeout to the 10-12% range tops. I don't see that coming to fruition anytime soon. <br />
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The horse racing industry pats itself on the back over handle gains that don't even beat inflation and use these results as the reason that radical changes are just not necessary. <br />
<br />
Back to eSports, this video is quite an eye opener:<br />
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/RpKH4NdqKtA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe><br />
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And guess what?, horse racing is also an eSport now. Check the slot machine like churning that goes on (I think the takeout is in the 5% range):<br />
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/fKOzP0V9WPI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-52854865285071641442016-12-14T15:53:00.000-05:002016-12-14T15:53:18.065-05:00Fake Horse Racing NewsHere are some headlines:<br />
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Thoroughbred Tracks Ban Whips, Allows Fishing Poles With Carrots Attached<br />
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Donald Trump Blames Russia For Undetectable Drugs Used By Super Trainers<br />
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Churchill Downs Increases Racing Dates For Arlington Park and Fair Grounds<br />
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Texas To Re-Allow Adults To Bet On Horses Online, Bans AR 15's<br />
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With An Eye To The Future, Thoroughbred Sire Minimum Age Set At 6<br />
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Gulfstream Park To Offer Only Jackpot Bets On Pegasus Day<br />
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Racing Execs Relieved As Horse Racing Is Officially Deemed As Entertainment, Raise Minimum Takeout Rates To 35%<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-40421983411574318012016-09-14T11:28:00.000-04:002016-09-14T11:28:40.647-04:00IMPROVING THE GAME PART TWOHere is a recent article I wrote for HANA's Horseplayer Monthy:<br />
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IMPROVING THE GAME PART TWO<br />
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Here are a few more ideas on how to improve the game of horse racing:<br />
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Minimum Wagers<br />
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Back in the 1940's and 50's, arguably when horse racing was at its peak of popularity, the minimum wager was $2 and there really weren't any known issues with that. Using an inflation calculator, a $2 bet in 1947 is equal to a wager of $21.58 today. Down is up and up is down when it comes to horse racing it seems at times. Today, one can make a $1 win bet and a 10 cent superfecta bet (superfectas weren't around back in 1947, but still....). <br />
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Lotteries in many jurisdictions have been raising their minimums without a loss to their bottom line lately, not decreasing them.<br />
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Besides the possibility that racing might be selling itself short be feeling it needs dime minimums, keeping minimums so low may actually be hurting the bottom line. They take away much of the incentive from the gambler when it comes to a big score, and also takes away the possibility of carryovers which attracts bigger dollars. If supers had a 50 cent or $1 minimum and lets say that half of the pool or the full pool (after takeout) was to be carried over if nobody had the top four horses in the right order, players would be watching these situations daily like hawks. The same is true for Pick 4's and Pick 5's.<br />
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Raising the minimum win place show and daily double bet to $5 would more than likely create more value, which would attract more players and would increase the ability of value players to have a chance to make money long term, something horse racing really needs in order to grow.<br />
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Has any racetrack ever asked their Horseplayers if they'd rather have a 20 or 50 cent minimum or a dollar minimum Pick 4? Has any research been done? Here is an idea, tracks that have two Pick 4 should have different minimums for either Pick 4 and see what happens.<br />
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Standardized Payout Prices<br />
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When someone says "I hit the super and it paid $569.60" what goes through your mind regarding the payout? Was it $569.60 for a dime? for twenty cents? for 50 cents? for a buck? or for a deuce? Nobody reading this knows for sure and it really shouldn't be that way. Also, there is also an issue that occurs once in a while where the payout might show $28,753.80 (for a two dollar base) but in reality only one person had the whole pool for 50 cents and collected $7,188.45. There is something deceptive about that and it isn't necessary either.<br />
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To get to the goal of having industry standardized payout prices one must first acknowledge the problem that different tracks have different minimums. There needs to be a sit down of track owners and minimums for each bet type should be agreed to be the same everywhere. That is going to take a while achieve as some jurisdictions need to tinker with state laws, etc, and getting two tracks to agree on minimums is hard enough, asking for all to agree might be more difficult than peace in the middle east. <br />
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Until that time comes, prices shown should be based on the minimum wager. If tracks like to see higher payouts so they can advertise it, raise the minimum.<br />
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Jackpot Bets<br />
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It looks like Beulah Park created a Frankenstein. Jackpot bets have been put on many a racetrack's wagering menu in the past few years. If they attract lots of action, then it might make sense in some cases, if they don't, they are pretty much useless. They kill churn and they don't attract players to that track unless the jackpot has risen to larger amounts, and even then, in many cases they don't attract enough players to justify their existence. Wouldn't you rather invest in a $1 Pick 4 or Pick 5 carryover than a dime or twenty cent high five jackpot? Has any research been done on what players want when it comes to these bets? Probably not.<br />
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If a jackpot bet can't attract at least $5,000 in new money a day, it should be banished to the cornfield (replace it with something with true carryover potential like a $1 Pick 5 or even a buck Pick 7). As for the ones that do attract $5k a day or more, why not cap them at $100,000 and when that is reached, pay out all new money (minus takeout) to the multiple winners each day? In the long run this might even end up increasing that racetrack's bottom line. <br />
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It is probably more attractive to most horseplayers when there is a shot at $100k if you are the lone winner coupled with ability to get your real share of the new money put in if you pick the right five in order. <br />
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The other solution is to simply stipulate that the racing day after a jackpot pool hits $100,000, it is automatically a mandatory payout day. A mandatory payout with a $100,000 is probably just as good, if not better, than one with an $800,000 carryover, for example, when you take frequency of mandatory pool payouts into account.<br />
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If you missed the August/September free issue of Horseplayers Monthly, <a href="http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanamonthly.html">check it out here</a>.<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-35867202944599217812016-08-04T11:17:00.000-04:002016-08-04T11:17:22.609-04:00Modernizing and Improving The Game<br />
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Here are a few ideas that can improve, modernize and/or grow the game of horse racing:<br />
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Drugs<br />
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It is pretty much a given that most Horseplayers and Horsemen alike know that the drug problem in horse racing isn't about what is tested for, but what isn't tested for. The use of performance enhancing drugs hurts Horseplayer confidence and it also drives out owners, even trainers and potential new owners as the playing field just doesn't seem level. Keeping up with designer drugs is nearly impossible for regulators. By the time one is discovered and banned, another new one comes along and replaces it.<br />
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The solution has to be tougher penalties. First, there has to be an approved list of drugs that can be used, and only the drugs on the list can be used. Barns caught using drugs not on the list have to receive something much greater than a slap on the wrist. There needs to be harsh fines and suspensions. Is it too much to ask for trainers to only use drugs from an approved list? It really shouldn't be, but for some reason, the thought of this is offensive to some. <br />
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Horseplayers and new potential owners (who are looking to claim or buy privately) shouldn't be totally in the dark regarding which drugs are being used either. Trainers and possibly vets should be required to list drugs and even supplements, and any medical procedures used on a horse and the reports should be available at a national database for the public to access. Violators should be fined enough so that they aren't even thinking about not reporting everything. It is 2016, there is no good reason for the game to not be transparent, for the sake of its customers. <br />
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Timing of Races<br />
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Once more, it is 2016, so why is horse racing not even using 20+ year old technology when it comes to the exact distance of a race from when the timer goes off to the finish of the race? Lengths are somewhat subjective and at best can only be used to calculate estimated times, especially horses other than the winner. <br />
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The solution is to put to use, for example, GPS technology, put a device in the saddle, and accurately time all the horse in the race to the hundredth of a second. The public can then look at the past performances and decide if they want to look at the actual time or the lengths beaten when trying to handicap winners. <br />
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Wind speed would be a nice addition too. It is available for quarter horse races so this shouldn't be too complicated to implement.<br />
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Takeout<br />
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Lets bang our heads against the wall some more. Takeout needs to be no greater than 15% on almost all exotics and 10% on win place show. And this has to be industry wide. <br />
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Horseplayers, like every other gambler on the planet like to stay in action. The lower the takeout, the more they get to stay in action without having to "go to the well." The longer most gamblers stay in action with the same bankroll, the more entertainment they have, the more likely they are to stick with the particular game that is giving them that entertainment fix, and more importantly, they become more focused on that game and they are less likely to focus on the competition. The lower the rake, the more the game is perceived to be beatable both long term and short term.<br />
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Claiming<br />
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This is what one might call thinking out of the (claiming) box. How about giving owners the ability to claim horses after the race? Hold an auction right after each claiming race. <br />
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The way it would work is each horse would do a 10 second jog in front of the camera after unsaddling, then the horse can go back to the test barn or their stable. The owner or authorized agent puts a minimum bid on their horse. The bid can be much lower than the claiming price up to 125% of the claiming price (to protect the owner in case the horse ran exceptional or lost a conditioned race by a small margin). If the owner doesn't submit a minimum bid, the bid is the original claiming price.<br />
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Horses can still be claimed prior to the race. If claimed the traditional way, they do not become part of the auction. The rest are auctioned off in program order. Owners must have funds to cover their transactions in full prior to auction. Authorized agents or owners can bid, even via the phone or internet. The auction can take place in the grandstand which may get the public somewhat involved (and it also kills the excuse of too much time between races somewhat as well). <br />
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The owner of the horse being put up for auction can buy back their horse as well, but any amount above the 25% allotted premium will be donated to a retired horse rescue or the Jockey's Benevolent fund.<br />
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The pros of this are many. Owners buying with more confidence. Owners looking to sell their horses can get a good market value. Owners/Horsemen will be focused on viewing more claiming races than they are now, especially potential owners. The fans may get their interest up as well, enough to perhaps dabble in ownership. With more focus on these races, wagering will most likely increase as well. <br />
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The above article was written by me for HANA's Horseplayer Monthly (July 2016 Edition): <a href="http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanamonthly.html"> Check out the entire issue for free!</a> Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-58735748503559647822016-03-05T22:02:00.000-05:002016-03-08T19:24:30.397-05:00Horse Racing Should Market The Heck Out Of The TrifectaFor once and for all, new potential horseplayers and fans are not staying away from horse racing because the gambling aspect of it is too hard to understand, or because of drugs, and certainly not because of racetrack jargon.<br />
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I think I was 4 years old when I figured out win place and show, maybe I was an exceptionally smart four year old, but you get my drift. I could also read past performances when I was 8, it isn't rocket science. I also don't think that there is a wager easier to understand than win place or show other than coin flipping or roulette, which I think is just as easy to understand. I'd even state that slots is harder to figure out than a show bet. Understanding a horse race bet is even less complicated than betting against a point spread or playing craps. One doesn't even need a Trump U. diploma to figure out how to an exotics wager works either. It is a matter of wanting to figure find out what a superfecta is, not how a superfecta works, and we'll get to this difference shortly.<br />
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When it comes to drugs, I don't believe it stops anyone other than animal cruelty warriors, and they would stay away even if horse racing was drug free because horses do break their legs no matter what. The perception of drugging horses as well as potential rigging has always been there, but lets face it, horse racing was a lot more popular and mainstream in the 40's to 60's than it is today, and getting new players involved was much easier back then. Other sports have had their fixing and drug scandals, but popularity for most of these sports have become much stronger as the years go on.<br />
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And then there is jargon. Jargon doesn't keep anyone out. All sports have words unique to them, and even a life long sports fan and sometime participant like myself still has trouble figuring out exactly when a balk in baseball or when a zone defense technical in basketball should be called. I'll leave figuring out that stuff up to the umps and refs and still enjoy the game, of course, I'll enjoy the game much more if I have at least one fantasy player participating. As for keeping newbies from getting involved, not knowing what a bug boy is is like not knowing what a sophomore pro is. Does not understanding what a sophomore is keeping any newbie away from football or basketball? <br />
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Nah, what keeps new participants away from horse racing is that even if they are drawn to looking these days, they have no interest in learning more. The simple reason is that there is no buzz when it comes to long term winning gamblers. Yes, there is a learning curve, but it isn't anymore difficult than the learning curve for playing fantasy sports. Today's millennials are gambling. They also like skill games. They'd be perfect for horse racing except one thing, they need the right motivation to learn about horse racing, and that motivation would exist if horse racing was perceived as beatable in the long term. The collective average takeout of 21% is twice as a high as it is needed to be in order to grab substantial new players.<br />
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Until the industry wakes up and revamps takeout, there are a few band aid solutions that might keep the ship from completely sinking. One is to go after established horse players aren't playing because they don't have access. It is mind boggling that residents of Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, Hawaii, the list goes, cannot bet on horses over the internet. Horse racing needs a lobby group that tackles this specific issue. Handle could rise another 33% if these dry states allowed their adult populations to gamble if that is the adult's desire. It makes no sense that someone in Dallas can own an assault rifle but can't bet $2 to show on California Chrome on the internet.<br />
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The second suggestion is to get more eyes on the product (though, as stated above, even with more eyes on horse racing, it is near impossible to get the eyes to stick due to pricing). Besides another Triple Crown winner, horse racing should try to take advantage of the word trifecta, a word that has made it big time in the mainstream. Trifecta originated in 1974 when it was strictly a horse racing term (simply and evolved variation of perfecta). Today, a day can't go by without either hearing the word on TV or reading it in the news, and not very often is the word used with respect to horse racing. Check out the <a href="https://www.google.ca/webhp?hl=en#q=trifecta&hl=en&tbm=nws&tbs=sbd:1">Google News Search of "trifecta."</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.azquotes.com/quotes/topics/trifecta.html">Now check these seven "trifecta" quotes out</a>, none have anything to do with horse racing.<br />
Here are a couple if you didn't bother with the link: <br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"First they don't believe in evolution, then climate change, now the debt ceiling -or what I call The Moron Trifecta." <a href="https://twitter.com/billmaher">@billmaher</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RealTime?src=hash">#RealTime</a></p>— Real Time (@RealTimers) <a href="https://twitter.com/RealTimers/status/388848030725570560">October 12, 2013</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><br />
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">'Getting Real': The truth about hitting the 'bimbo trifecta': Former Miss America, blonde, <a href="https://twitter.com/FoxNews">@FoxNews</a> host <a href="http://t.co/QychJ3lsBa">http://t.co/QychJ3lsBa</a></p>— Gretchen Carlson (@GretchenCarlson) <a href="https://twitter.com/GretchenCarlson/status/615550253320634368">June 29, 2015</a></blockquote><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script><br />
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So what should horse racing do? Promote the heck out of the trifecta. Focus on the bigger payouts. House handicappers should focus on the tris. Lower the takeout on trifectas, make it the bet for the millennials. And to Woodbine and all the rest of the Canadian tracks, change the name from triactor to trifecta. Triactor is strictly a horse racing term, and it means a wager with a takeout of 25-29%. Not very attractive, not a great sell.<br />
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Early use of the word trifecta outside of horse racing:) :<br />
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/S449KdjPKrY" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe><br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-22896617.post-70705947908068470722016-01-06T14:03:00.003-05:002016-01-06T14:03:44.042-05:00Same Old Same OldHorse racing was up a mere 1% in 2015. Did American Pharoah even matter? Lets hope not.<br />
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Applauding contraction as the direction to go is pure willful ignorance. Sure, intuitively contraction seems the only way to go as long as racing feels it can't compete with other forms of gambling, but nothing good can come out of it. It is only a band-aid for those who have the most invested in the game today but it will definitely not grow the game, it will have the opposite effect long term. When you cut dates, you cut exposure, you cut participants as well. Participants have families and friends who are potential customers and potential participants. This is simple stuff.<br />
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Owners who have 20-40 horses seem to forget how and why they got started, and that they probably started with 1 horse, two tops.<br />
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Race tracks cutting dates severely in Suffolk, for example, or altogether in Virginia only will cause those living in those areas to stop even thinking about horse racing, which included betting on it.<br />
Less participants means governments will care less about horse racing and the economies created by horse racing, which will lead to less monies from alternative gambling in the future.<br />
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Another example, Texas cutting online betting on horse racing. Texas is a very large state, and asking Horseplayers to drive 50-100 miles in many cases just so they can bet into an average 21% takeout is ridiculous. Most of those who used to play horse racing online will forget it exists. They'll play offshore or play something else (see DFS).<br />
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In 2015, we had American Pharoah (which brought many new eyes to the game) and millions of gambling hungry (see DFS) millennials, a slightly improving economy (much much better than 2009 for sure) and handle only went up 1%...and forget about factoring in inflation, of course. Also, handle has been dwindling the past decade+ as well, and the industry can't even get a dead cat bounce:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0yPG1GKMlrPWWzOQBMahhFB3lai5xN8_cFot7r2JWcw42jZgHlwB3y9YEGmkl_6cx4t3yvAxsAB4_fXPhiGSJVWl20OuKN_HDfy2nEoDXbGO1xxChFpy5ZessPorz8ZhKZk3tBw/s1600/Chart_PariMutuelHandle.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0yPG1GKMlrPWWzOQBMahhFB3lai5xN8_cFot7r2JWcw42jZgHlwB3y9YEGmkl_6cx4t3yvAxsAB4_fXPhiGSJVWl20OuKN_HDfy2nEoDXbGO1xxChFpy5ZessPorz8ZhKZk3tBw/s400/Chart_PariMutuelHandle.jpg" /></a></div><br />
Gamblers are out (see DFS) there, but the masses want two things: Their gambling fix to be satisfied, and a game that is perceived to be beatable. Simply put, a game with no visible winners that has a 21% average takeout makes both impossible. <br />
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DFS can teach horse racing a few things. First, it is palatable to have 1-2% consistent visible winners. Second, a 9-10% takeout is also permissible as a maximum. Third, if the first two things are happening, quality doesn't mean much, games loaded with teams below 500 are just as like as games with that include elite teams. The gamblers horse racing needs want the action, want to think they have a chance long term, and hate to reload their account every day or two.<br />
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So what is racing doing to improve the gambling aspect?<br />
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More jackpot bets! Really? Yes. Have jackpots bets created more Horseplayers? Doubt it. Do jackpot bets take more churn out of the game? 100% for sure. When gamblers want to fulfill their fix of staying in the game financially, the worst thing you can do is hold back money or take money out of circulation and even worse, distribute it rarely to one gambler who will be subject to massive withholding and is highly unlikely to bet the money back quickly enough to help churn.<br />
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More Hi 5's! Jackpot or not, these wagers do for growth, again, the opposite. An industry leader or two has brain farted the idea that putting them in every race is a good business move. The only time anyone should consider betting a Hi 5 is when the Jackpot is over 200k and one can justify throwing a few bucks at it as a lottery play, but to those who built up the Jackpot, how about more cold showers? Two things, people silly enough to play a Hi 5 with less than 10k in the pool aren't attracted to low takeouts, and because there are so few winners, if a track is going to lower takeout, this is the worst wager to lower it on. Second, why not try this, lower takeout on a few exotics instead and see how it goes.<br />
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20 cent exotics? Great, if the takeout isn't over 20% for those wagers. But when a 25% tri or super (where the average bet is over $4 to get it) pays the same on average for twenty cents that a 20% takeout ex or dd pays for a deuce, you end up with a disingenuous way of killing churn (the gambler's fix), and you are end up helping the Horseplayer to gradually disappear from the game.<br />
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Back 3 years ago, I wrote a piece: <a href="http://cangamble.blogspot.ca/2012/12/shh-i-know-how-to-grow-horse-racing.html">Shh! I Know How To Grow Racing</a> I didn't mean for the industry to take the Shh! literally, but so far, it has. See also <a href="http://cangamble.blogspot.ca/2015/02/location-location-location.html">Location Location Location</a><br />
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Funny thing is that three years ago I also wrote a piece on how the four major league sports could improve: <a href="http://cangamble.blogspot.ca/2012/10/horse-racing-isnt-only-game-that-can.html"> Horse Racing Isn't The Only Game That Can Improve</a>. Guess what, the NHL and NFL make me look like some kind of savant.<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2