What Do You Think Of The Cangamble Blog

Note to Internet Explorer uses. There is a problem with IE and Blogger right now. If you get an abort message, click OK. You will be sent to a page asking if you want to do diagnostics. Simply click the back button, and the IE issue will most likely be resolved. This is why I use Mozilla Firefox.

Yesterday, at Fort Erie during Prince Of Wales day, I set out to find out:


Thanks to everyone who participated including Cindy Pierson Dulay who runs Horse-Races.net and About.com: Horse Racing, Jocko Lauzon, Peter Gross (Down The Stretch Newspaper), Kevin Attard (the best dressed guy at The Fort yesterday), Daryl Wells Jr., Jim Thibert (who waved at the end), and all the rest. Cub reporter Perry Lefko was also very helpful in the making of the video.


Gallant Wins The Prince Of Wales

The track was absolutely the most speed favoring one of the year and the rail was golden, yet the pace was very slow in the Prince Of Wales.
The fastest early pace horse, on form, in the race, Mr. Foricos Two U decide to rate. Why? Was that Mike Smith's decision or the outfit's decision? Or was the horse just off his game? As I stated in my post handicapping the race, my biggest concern with this horse was his breeding. Porto Foricos horses are not great routers. They are more inclined to be 6-7 furlong horses. This one has shown that he can go around two turns though, but I haven't seen very many do so, especially at Fort Erie. I had him pegged as the lone speed in the race, and the track came up perfect for him. He at least stayed near the rail most of the race, but he had no chance yesterday trying to stalk.

And what is with Eye Of The Leopard deciding not train at least once at Fort Erie? Horrible move. As Elissa Blowe rightfully points out almost daily when doing the handicapping at Fort Erie, horses dropping in from Woodbine many times don't do so well their first time racing at The Fort. By shipping and running The Leopard, it may very well cost him the Triple Crown This Year. That being said, the track totally played against him yesterday, and if the track was playing fair, he might have won regardless of his connection's blunder.

Stewart Elliot on Milwaukee Appeal did the right thing early by grabbing the lead on the inside going into the first turn, but then blew the race by allowing Gallant not only take over the lead but also let Corey Fraser grab the rail. The filly still did run a very game race. She could be the second best 3 year old filly in North America right now, which still means she could be 16 lengths inferior to Rachel Alexandra.

It was a masterful ride on Gallant by Corey Fraser who out rode the rest of the jockeys in the race.

There was tremendous drama during the extra long wait as the judges tried to figure out who won the race. I was 90% sure, Milwaukee Appeal won it after watching the stretch replay 3 or 4 times, though when I watched the race, I was a little past the wire, and it seemed Gallant was in front at that time.

When Peter Kyte finally announced that Gallant had won, there was probably not a happier person on the planet than Niagara Falls native, jockey Corey Fraser.

Great race no matter how you slice it.


Non Seeded Pick 6 Attracts $11,000 In New Money At Woodbine
Since the Pick 6 only usually only got around $1,000-$3,000 in new money prior to Woodbine's Turbo Charge experiment, I can only conclude that many bettors were duped into thinking that Woodbine was still seeding the pools.

The small field sizes offered, coupled with most people knowing the Turbo Charged Pick 6 was no more, resulted in a pathetic $2.1 million in handle at Woodbine yesterday.

Milwaukee Appeal To Win The Prince Of Wales? I Think Yes

Fort Erie Race Track Ready For Their Biggest Day Of The Year

The Prince Of Wales runs tomorrow at The Fort. Although it only has 6 horses, I can see numerous outcomes. It is a tough race. Horses who do well at distances on the Poly don't necessarily have the edge on a dirt track going a distance of ground. I'm still not on the Eye of the Leopard bandwagon, so I'm leaning to the filly, Milwaukee Appeal who figured to bounce a bit in her last race. She does have the best numbers going into this race from two and three starts ago.

The Leopard may in fact bounce too, as Sam Son Farms horses are usually aggressively trained and aren't use to running three tough races in just forty odd days.
Mr. Foricos Two U looks like he'll be able to control the pace, but his sire (as a route sire) turned me off him last time and I'm not about to jump on him here, though he could hang in for third.

I still think Keino West is going to move forward. He was way too far back last time out. If speed comes back, I can see him getting into the second or third.

Selections: 2-6-4

I did pick the exactor last year, so I'm definitely not due tomorrow.

Only 76 horses are racing in 10 races at Woodbine tomorrow barring scratches. Good day to avoid their high takeouts....at least in theory. Even Fort Erie has them beaten out with 78 horses entered tomorrow on Wales Day.



Excellent piece by John Pricci
The article is mostly to do with pool integrity, an issue that HANA is about to be all over soon.

"I argued with the industry official that the majority of players would prefer wagering to be stopped at post time, that even though odds will continue to change late, horseplayers would prefer to know the closing odds before a race starts."

Ajax Downs To Get Another 544 Slot Machines

With Nick Coukos there, Ajax has a perfect chance to grow their betting product. Right now there is an average of around $1500 bet on a race. No real exposure at all. They can change that in a hurry.


Somehow I missed this: OLG To Use Facial Recognition Technology (Biometrics) To Keep Out Problem Gamblers
An experimental test will be conducted in September.

This is of course too late in regards to the large lawsuits against the organization with problem gamblers who signed documents asking the OLG not to let them in.

10,000 people have signed up to be booted off the premises if spotted by OLG staff.

I wonder what percentage these problem gamblers make up of the total revenues generated by places like Woodbine.

If it is big, this could be the catalyst that brings down purses at WEG, and it might motivate the execs to try to really compete on the racing side. They might even get the horsemen to work with them. Horsemen in the USA right are like deer in the headlights. That could easily happen with the Woodbine horsemen. Fort Erie has already experienced that feeling, and unfortunately, that feeling isn't over and done with yet.

Christine Papakyriakou wasn't one of Woodbine's customers. But she will be sentenced next month after being found guilty of stealing $7.4 million from wine company Andrew Peller Ltd.

It seems the gambling bug got to her in a bad way. And instead of accepting responsibility that she is a just a criminal, she is looking at the OLG as being the scapegoat.

'Papakyriakou has launched a $10-million lawsuit against the province, Casino Niagara and Niagara Fallsview Casino Resort alleging they encouraged her to gamble.'

How many Christine's play slots at Woodbine?


Great News For Ohio Racing
Ohio has approved VLTs to be placed in the 7 Ohio race tracks. Those bible belters sure made it difficult, but many of them will be heading to the track now. Of course, that is what they were scared of in the first place.

It hasn't been determined what percentage of VLT profits the tracks and horsemen will receive yet.
Hopefully for them, it will be 10% for each. There purses are just pitiful now, and nobody has been more patient than Ohio tracks and horsemen.



Really Cool Gadget: Streak Calculator; Determines the probability of losing a streak of wagers over the course of a wager series of specified length.


Down The Stretch on-line has some really informative articles in its newest issue.

Well, there is a now humiliating article on Woodbine's Turbo Charged Pick 6 that was obviously done before Woodbine wisely pulled the plug on this losing money fiasco.

"(Sean) Pinsonneault and CFO Steve Mitchell may have dreamed this one up, but there's some logic behind it and when they ran it by President Nick Eaves and CEO David Willmot, there was almost immediate approval."

Who would Donald Trump fire for this? Probably Willmot. He has the final say I believe. Lucky for Willmot, it is a private company and he is a Teflon CEO.

But it is still nice to say "Willmot, you're fired."

There is an informative article on Ajax Downs

Budding cub reporter Perry Lefko has a more in depth article on the three suitors that Fort Erie has right now.

Woodbine Scraps Turbo Charged Pick 6

Turbo-charged Pick 6 on hold

TORONTO, July 8 - Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) is suspending its Turbo-charged Pick 6 wager promotion...for now.

"We're putting the Turbo-charged aspect of the Pick 6 wager on hold, but are considering bringing it back for special events or something more regular later in the season," said Sean Pinsonneault, WEG's Vice-President of Wagering Services.


The Turbo-charged Pick 6, a bet in which horseplayers are asked to select the winners of six consecutive races, was offered over three straight Sundays, beginning on June 21, the day of the 150th edition of the Queen's Plate.

As promotion for the Turbo-charged Pick 6, WEG added $150,000 to the carryover. If the Pick 6 was won, the pool was re-seeded with another $150,000 for the following week.

"We wanted to promote our Pick 6 wager and felt seeding the pool with $150,000 would raise eyebrows, and it sure did," continued Pinsonneault. "It created the buzz we were looking for and encouraged racing fans and horsemen that weren't already familiar with the Woodbine Thoroughbred product to experience our racing with consistently large fields and one of the largest purse structures in North American racing."

The Turbo-charged Pick 6 was paid out on each Sunday the added $150,000 was offered.

On the first afternoon (June 21) of the bet, one fan, from the United States, collected $203,499.40. On June 28, another American hit it for $153,884.20. On July 5, four happy fans, three from Canada and another from the U.S., had the Pick 6 for $46,982.90 each.

"It would have been nice to see it carryover a few days from our perspective but clearly some pretty savvy players were able to walk away with some significant jackpots," said Pinsonneault, "and that's ultimately what we were trying to create. We're happy for those that cashed tickets on the Turbo-charged Pick 6."

A $2 Pick 6 wager will remain on the Woodbine betting menu every Sunday without the seeded carryover beginning July 12 and continue to cover the final six races on the Thoroughbred card.

Woodbine racing is available Wednesdays at 6:45 p.m. and Thursday through Sundays at 1 p.m. until December 6.

Upon hearing that Woodbine dropped their Turbo Charged Pick 6 yesterday, my immediate action was this.

As I stated here in previous posts, the Turbo Charged Pick 6 was a financial disaster. Woodbine was down over $400,000 (they got very little bottom line return on the $450,000 they seeded the three pools with), and their idea of getting a very large carryover was turning into a monumental task, not just because they got unlucky due to horseplayers cashing it every week, but because the $150,000 just didn't attract enough money to substantially build the pool even if it wasn't hit.

Pinsonneault's comments about being happy for the bettor's who cashed couldn't be more disingenuous. Maybe he is getting ready for a career in politics. He didn't need to put that on the press release, he really didn't.

And as for buzz, now more and more people know why bettors avoid Woodbine. Monstrous takeouts on triactors and high takeouts on other exotics.

It isn't that people can't handicap the track. Much to Woodbine's chagrin, bettor's showed that poly or no poly, once some real money is thrown at their Pick 6, it can be cashed.

I wonder if Steve Mitchell (he takes credit for coming up with this Pick 6 venture) is trying to gather up all The Game issues that he can find.

And don't feel sorry for Woodbine or their execs. This was simply a bait and switch gone bad. Woodbine wanted to get people to start playing Woodbine with its ridiculously high takeouts by trying to get them to handicap the Pick 6 first. As for the execs, well as long as they have their lips on the boss's teats, their jobs are pretty secure. If Woodbine Entertainment was a publicly traded company though, almost every exec they have would have been gone a long long time ago, including their fearless leader.

I'll admit, I was wrong, thinking this venture might have been successful, but I thought they would be able to attract much more new money than they did with $150,000 in free money dangling out there. It goes to show me that bettors are avoiding Woodbine more than I even thought. And it isn't a polytrack situation either, just look at how the Pick 6 pots grow in California. But a major reason people follow tracks like Hollywood in the first place, is their track takeouts are fairly low (15.4% on WPS and 20.68% on all other wagers)

Woodbine knows how to run a monopoly. That is pretty much all they know. Problem is that they are no longer a monopoly, and they haven't been for 30 years.


If they want to attract gamblers, they need to hire gamblers to run the place make all the crucial decisions regarding betting.

A gambler may have told the guy who writes the condition book to put on a few bottom maiden claimers on Sunday. Those races wind up with big fields, and lots of chaos. Last night, there would hardly have been a ticket using the fifth winner.

The first thing they have to do is to get their takeouts down to levels that appeal to all bettors. But they will never go that route under current management.


If not for slots, current management at WEG would be hard up to find a job in the real world. Maybe, just maybe, they could get a job selling cold lemonade in the desert. That way they might be able to get away with charging the public ludicrous prices for their product.


It Is Good To Be King......haven
Ontario horse people are still mumbling in a negative manner over the fact that last Saturday, Woodbine carded a claiming race with only five betting interests (it was a 6 horse race, but two of the horses were owned by the same outfit, and thus an entry for betting purposes).

No one is shocked though, because one of the entrants was owned by Woodbine's top vizuzu, David Willmot's Kinghaven Farms.

Willmot's horse, aptly named, Forcefully, won the race by a schnoz in an exciting finish.

It isn't uncommon for a five betting interest allowance race or non claiming maiden race to be carded when Woodbine is short on entries, but my (not so entirely great) memory doesn't recall a five betting interest claiming race ever get carded.
You can go through the entry sheets for years, and not find that kind of thing happen. And it probably won't happen again for years....unless there is a Kinghaven horse entered perhaps.


Nick Coukos Sighting
Good to see that Nick Coukos is still in the industry. He has landed the job of VP of Corporate Affairs at Ajax Downs. Good move by Ajax. Nick is a gambler, and thus understands the needs and psyche of the gambler. Not a good fit for Woodbine, but a good fit for any racing organization looking to achieve real success in the future.


Prince Of Wales Goes This Sunday: Fort Erie's Biggest Day Of The Year
It almost looked like the race was destined to be run at Woodbine this year.

This could be the last Prince of Wales at Fort Erie, as the track is still on death's door. Lets hope not. It is a beautiful track.

I may show up with my camera for the event. I may even wear my bulls-eye shirt in case a Woodbine exec wants to take a shot at me:)


Really Good Article by Jay Cronley: Smart On Smart
Cronley points out that the dummies have stopped betting on horses for slots and lotteries, and now mostly what is left is smart handicappers who are betting against smart handicappers......at the same takeout that existed before the Dummy Exodus.

Even smart handicappers are leaving though. Betting was down 17% in June. So now it really is a game that pits smart handicappers versus really smart handicapper/bettors....at an average takeout rate of 20%.

If parimutuel betting on horse racing was invented tomorrow, the inventors would look around at the competition out there first, and there is no way that any bet would have a takeout of more than 12% absolutely tops.


Big Buzz Created By Paulick On Kirk Ziadie's Drug Suspension Record
There isn't anyone out there saying anything positive about Ziadie and the current state of the game in regard to drug policies.

How is Ziadie still training? His drug violation record should get him a spot on America's Most Wanted.

The betting public is sick of the wrist slaps racing jurisdictions hand out to trainers these days.

From track execs to horsemen to those who police the industry, racing is by far the most dysfunctional industry on this planet.

If It Aint Broke D....Well Horse Racing Is Broke...Now What?

Horse racing handle was down a staggering 16.9% in June in the USA

Sure, those who have jobs as racing execs, but shouldn't, will blame the economy. Meanwhile, it hard to blame the economy when "Month to month, comparing only the Pennsylvania casinos that were open a year ago, revenues were up more than seven percent in June of this year over June of 2008."

It is also hard to ignore the fact that when the economy was peaking, handle was dropping, albeit to a much lesser degree than what we've seen the past month, but dropping nonetheless. It has been stagnant to dropping for 7 years now.

Oh wait, there were less race dates. But there was only a 2% reduction in dates, so that isn't a real good argument.

The thing that might, and I say might, make the industry notice is that purses were down 6% in June. Yes, change is needed, and when the pocket books are hurt, change actually may happen.

I wrote a piece back in November: Will The Recession Wake Up The Racing Industry?

Personally, I think racing is starting to wake up, but it is still too dysfunctional to react in a positive manner.

Read more at The Paulick Report and at Pace Advantage.

It is great to read more and more articles, blog posts and forum comments on track takeout being the number one problem that horse racing has right now. I think blogs like this, and the awareness that HANA has spread in the past year has helped educate the public immensely.

HANA has written a piece on Cary Fotias' views on takeout.


Apparently Potential Investors For Fort Erie Race Track Do Exist

“We have three interested parties at the moment, now we are just looking to find the right fit,” said Thibert.

The first option, according to (Jim) Thibert, is an Ontario-based land development company that has owned a racetrack in the past. They are exploring full ownership or partnering with the not-for-profit group.

The second potential investor is very interested and in the entertainment business. It apparently already owns a few racetracks in the United States and are experienced in that area.

The third company is also Canadian based and is part of an international consortia that has a lot of experience in the gaming business.

Regardless of which company they go with, Thibert says they’ll be pushing for a five-year deal.

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The thing is that when it comes to these potential investors, price is always an issue. The $35 million Thibert and Nordic Gaming came up with was a complete joke.

It doesn't help future negotiations either.

Nordic has a history of wanting waaaaaaaaaaaay too much for the track. Until that changes, the chances the track sells are next to nothing.

Seriously, how much is a track worth that supposedly loses money even with slots? From a business standpoint? Nothing. How much is the land worth with a losing business? That is a tough one. Knowing what I know about Fort Erie and the real estate market there, I'm thinking no more than $10 million tops.


Woodbine Gets Hit Again: Turbo Charged Pick 6 Gets Scooped Up Once More
If it wasn't for Woodbine's treatment of their customers (ramping up many triactor bets from other jurisdictions to a 25-27% takeout, while making it almost impossible for Canadians to bet through American ADWs where they could get half decent rebates, or at the very least, get the actual prices that many triactors pay), I'd actually feel sorry for them.

They were able to attract just over $80,000 in new money as more players are starting to realize that there is value in the bet. But overall handle for the day wasn't all that good at $2.6 million, as horseplayers continue to avoid Woodbine's higher end takeout scheme (27% takeout on triactors, for example).

If my math is right, so far Woodbine Entertainment has put in $450,000 and they've received around $29,000 in takeout proceeds (after horsemen were paid, and assuming that 50% of the money is generated from those who pay Woodbine a signal fee). I wonder if the execs are going to have to take pay cuts if this continues:)

It appears there were five winners yesterday. I wonder if any of them got some help from Horseplayersbet.com, who missed the first leg (it was a favorite though), but mentioned the next five winners, including 3 first choice winners (including the last race winner at 8-1).

I had five of six again this week. This time spending $120. I only had it once this time and got back $176.


Short Fields: Which Tracks Are Most Guilty Of Running Races With Five Starters Or Less
Rook, a fellow Canuckian who posts on Pace Advantage, posted the percentage of races that have 5 horses or less per track:

GG17.4% MTH13.2% ARP12.5% BEL12.5% LRL11.2% HST10.9% RD10.4%HOL10.2% HAW10.0% NP9.9% DEL9.0% BEU8.8% PIM8.8% PHA7.7% AQU7.7%PRM7.4% ASD7.3% EMD7.3% PID7.0% CNL7.0% CD6.3% KEE6.3% CBY6.1% CRC6.1% SA6.1% PM5.6% TP5.2% AP5.1% FL3.8% TUP3.7% RUI3.6% FP3.5%GP3.1% FG2.9% IND2.6% FE2.5% CT2.3% WO2.3% PEN2.2% OP2.0% LS2.0%LA1.9% MNR1.5% SRP1.2% SUN0.9% SUF0.9% DED0.8% LAD0.8% TDN0.8%YAV0.8% FON0.6% EVD0.6% WRD0.6% RET0.4% TAM0.4%

Woodbine Down Lots On Turbo Charged Pick 6 So Far

I know it has only been going for two weeks, but early indications and analysis makes it look like the Turbo Charged Pick 6 will wind up to be a financial disaster for Woodbine Entertainment. They've been unlucky so far, as one jackpot winner emerged in both weeks. And this of course prevents the pool from getting gigantic and growing exponentially. But after last week, it looks like big pool growth will take quite a few weeks, much longer than first anticipated.

Woodbine put in $150,000 into the Pick 6 pool on Queen's Plate Day (June 21st) added to a small carryover of around $3,000 that was already there. Woodbine pools are at least double that specific day compared to other Sundays, so the fact that $140,771 in new money was wagered on the Pick 6 represented a bit of an anomaly.

Though I am not privy to the breakdown, but lets assume that 50% is bet in their home market through HPI, their home market tracks, and teletheatres, and 50% through US tracks, US ADWs, and Canadian non HPI home markets.

When you factor in the US exchange, probably another $8-10,000 can be added to the pool total. So let says the total new money was $150,000 Canadian.

The new $150,000 is broken down as follows: 75% goes into the pool (because of the 25% track takeout), so that means that the new money added $78,000 (70% of $112,500) to the $153,000 carryover, and this now represented a jackpot of approx. $231,000 Canadian to be distributed to those hitting 6 of 6, leaving another $34,000 to be distributed to those hitting 5 of 6. The Pick 6 was hit by one person and it paid $203,499.40. This means the winner was an American and paid in US funds.

But lets look at Woodbine's bottom line: They put in $150,000. The total takeout was around $38,000. About $19,000 was generated on their own platform, but they only get around a third of the other $19,000 (their estimated signal fee). Because they split the takeout and signal fee with the horsemen, that means Woodbine generated back a mere $12,000 (if my math is right) for the track.

Had the Pick 6 not be hit the first week, the $231,000 would have carried over. How much is a gambler more attracted to $231,000 over $150,000? Good question. I don't think it is that much. That makes what happened the second week very disillusioning, I assume, to Woodbine management.

They had to put in another $150,000. This time, it was just a regular Sunday and the bet only attracted $51,388 in new money (let say $56,000 Canadian when factoring US exchange). This time the total takeout generated was only $14,000, and after taking into account their net after non home market share and horseman share, the track only netted around $5-6,000. So after two weeks, Woodbine Entertainment put in $300,000 only to get back $18,000.

To make matters worse for Woodbine, one lucky American in Californian hit the Pick 6, forcing Woodbine to put in another $150,000 this week. But the dim reality is that even if it wasn't hit, the pool would only be sitting at around $172,000 instead of $150,000 that will be initially available this coming Sunday.

One argument is that the Pick 6 will cause players, who weren't looking at Woodbine before, to start handicapping it now and betting other races, but it really didn't show on Sunday as only $2.4 million was wagered on the whole card, which again is pretty close to average for a Sunday at Woodbine.

Before feeling sorry for Woodbine, lets remember that Woodbine is not doing this for the customer, they are doing it for themselves. This is the same Woodbine that recently ramped up the takeout on Tracknet, Magna, and California triactors. The same Woodbine that now gives its HPI customers $730 for a triactor that pays $810 at Churchill Downs.

Question arise. Are bettors avoiding the Polytrack? Or are the bigger bettors staying away from Woodbine's high takeouts (even though they just reduced their takeout on triactors, the new 27% charge still ranks 6th highest in North America). It most likely is a combination of the two, but takeouts definitely need to go lower in order for more players to become interested in Woodbine. That or Woodbine needs to give bigger rebates to their customers, find ways to rebate those who use HPI in non home market areas, and also make their signal available to all rebate shops.

Woodbine did have a very good Canada Day handle yesterday (over $3 million). They raced during the day. Normally on a Wednesday night, they usually have handles of around $1.3 million to $1.7 million (they usually just run 8 races).

Maybe Woodbine should consider racing Wednesday during the day. There isn't a lot of competition as California is now dark on Wednesdays. In fact, Woodbine should maybe think about running Mondays and Tuesdays instead of the Thursdays and Fridays to avoid competition. Today (Thursday), they will be lucky to do $1.4 million in handle.

On a personal note, I had a cheap thrill on Sunday. I bet $24 on the Pick 6. I used 2 horses by 3 horses (left out the 3-5 shot who ran up the track) by 1 horse by 1 horse by 1 horse by 2 horses.

I hit the first five legs. But I didn't have the chalk in the last leg, and the chalk romped. The good thing is that I didn't finish second or third in the last race either, and what would have been worse would have been second beaten a neck or less. I did receive over $300, having 5 of 6 twice, but it would have been real nice taking home over $170,000 Canadian, if one my horses would have taken the last race.

I though for sure that more people would have hit the Pick 6. The last four legs were chalk, and the first winner was only 5-1 (though the race was admittedly tough). The second leg must have knocked out the masses, and to me, the favorite, Retraceable, was at least 3 lengths inferior to my three top selections.

The logical horses won the 3rd through 5th legs, but the fields were excellent in size. I used singles in those races and had the natural Pick 3.

I tried to beat the favorite in the last (one of my live horses finished behind her in her last race), and it cost me $80,000. But I'm good at turning the page.

The bettor who did hit the Pick 6 spent $576, more than 1% that was put into the pool as new money.

One more thing. Note to Jeff Bratt: Don't say things like "lets hope no one wins it this week so that the pool will grow." I know you work for Woodbine, but you were talking to those who bet the Pick 6 on the day you said it. Basically you were telling Woodbine's customers that you hope they rip their tickets up.


HANA IN THE NEWS
Professional handicapper Cary Fotias has written a bang on article called If Tracks Had Access

"thoroughbred racing will not prosper until takeout rates are significantly reduced."
**********************
Where did I hear that before?:)

He goes on to make a very good comparison between the Old Boys network that used to control the stock market to the Old Boys network that still keeps horse racing behind the times.

He also echoes my concerns about the negative perception customers have regarding past posting, and offers the same solution I do: Cut off betting 1 minute to post.

I'll disagree with him regarding liquidity, because if takeouts are reduced significantly, liquidity will never be an issue again.

And finally, he mentions HANA in a big way:

If we horseplayers have enough passion to make our voices heard, we CAN make a difference. That’s why I encourage all if you to join the Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA) if you haven’t already. There is a link to the HANA homepage on the Equiform web site. I am on the HANA advisory board as I feel HANA has no other agenda except to improve our collective well being. I think the HANA “buycott” or “pool party” is a great way to enhance our bargaining power. Check it out - I think the only way we will be heard is to employ strategies that impact the tracks’ bottom lines.

HANA also was mentioned in a Yavapai press release:

(Yavapai) Downs Names Boomer Racing Director

As a horseplayer, (Greg "Boomer") Wry brings a unique perspective while also serving as racing director. A handicapper tied closely to the racing community, he is a member of the Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA), whose 1,100 members put $41 million through betting windows last year.

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Making a horseplayer a racing director? Now that is what I call progress in a big way. I remember the old Ontario Jockey Club used to frown up their employees even making bets. They looked upon any bettor as being a degenerate, and unfortunately WEG is being run by someone who grew up with that attitude.
Incidentally, HANA is approaching 1250 members fast and we expect good growth this weekend as Hollywood Park is going the extra mile to promote us. By the way, our next Pool Party will be Hollywood Park's American Oaks on SUNDAY (race 8). *****FREE HANDICAPPING INFORMATION INCLUDING PAST PERFORMANCES CLICK HERE

To join HANA click here, it is free and it will take just a minute. The more members we have, the more clout we have.

Next week, we are moving to a smaller venue for the Pool Party. Woodbine was mentioned as a possibility, but we are too worried that we would lose too many members if we went with them:)

The Perfect Past Performances Just Do Not Exist

Life for the handicapper can be made so much more simpler.

Today's horseplayer is likely to play more than one track a day. Speed handicapping is required in many instances, especially for the many who don't rely on computer print outs in order to determine their bets.

We've seen tremendous improvements in the past performances that were available in the early 70's to today. Speed figures, pace figures, turf stats, workout ratings, trainer stats, jockey stats, etc. have all helped level the playing field.

Still, there are many holes and unanswered questions in the vast array of past performances that are available to the consumer right now. These holes can be filled in by doing extra research: watching race videos and doing your own track bias ratings, and marking down wind speed daily. But I think these things should be covered by those who chart the races for a living, and they should be available in the past performances.

Here is what is needed to make the perfect past performances:

ACTUAL TIMES FOR HORSES WHO FINISH 2ND OR WORSE
If you want to have some fun, go search the internet for the official amount of feet in a length. You'll get answers anywhere from 7.5 to 10 feet. Horses range in size too. So when a tiny horse wins by his length, does he win by a length, or really 3 quarters of a length?

In other words, lengths are subjective. Not only that, but I've tried to get a straight answer from actual chart callers and other experts with regard to the following circumstance and I've yet to find a consistent answer, or one that I can even understand:

The #2 horse has a 12 (subjective) length lead when he crosses the wire. The #3 horse was second when the #2 crossed the wire, but was tiring very quickly. The #5 horse who was 16 (subjective) lengths from the #2 when he crossed the wire first, wound up plodding along to finish second by 2 (subjective) lengths. Oh, and it was a muddy track, and the second horse finish the race exactly 4 seconds after the winner.

How many lengths does the chart show the #2 won by? 12 lengths? 16 lengths? or 20 lengths? And what about the third finishing horse, did he lose by 14 lengths, 15 lengths or 22 lengths, or 23 lengths (as his final time wound up to by 4.60 seconds slower than the winner's time)?

I wish I knew the answer. And I don't think anyone does definitively, and what may be true at one track, may not be true at another.

Horses do go slower the farther they go, and then you have to factor in the speed of today's track and the wind speed as well when it comes to how fast a horse is going at the end of the race.

When a horse loses by 10 lengths going 5 furlongs, does that mean he ran 2 seconds slower than the winner, the same as when a horse loses by 10 lengths going a mile and an eighth? Even though they are subjective lengths, it takes a lot longer for a horse to cover 10 lengths go further. And what if the horse is really tiring or coming on strong?

I want to know the final time of every horse so I can determine the lengths lost myself, and since I'm a speed handicapper, it would be nice to know the exact times I'm dealing with.

I can live with guesstimations when it comes to lengths beaten at every other call, but not the finish.


WIND SPEED

This is a no brainer. The chart maker simply jots down the wind speed every race. And that wind speed should show up in the past performances. They somehow have the technology to do this for quarter horses, so I know it exists.

This is important because when the wind gets up over 20 mph in a race, it definitely can create a bias. Horses with the wind at their back in the stretch have an advantage if they are closing and have more energy in reserve, while horses on the lead have an advantage if entering the stretch against a strong headwind.

A simple notation like 25b or 25h means that it is either a backstretch wind or a homestretch wind of 25 mph.


UNIVERSAL SPEED BIAS RATING

Steve Klein, in his book The Power Of Early Speed came up with a universal way to quickly come up with a relative speed bias number. It isn't rocket science.

Without giving it totally away, it has to do with the first call positions of most winners on a daily card, and then averaging them out, giving certain weights depending on the starting position.

I do think it can be done more effectively by incorporating the top two finishers and the favorite, but the principles will remain the same, and it could be calculated by a computer program in a nanosecond (or whatever the term is for almost no time).

The number can be scaled to be out of 100, where the higher the number, the more likely a speed horse lasted.

Wouldn't it be nice if one could look at the past performances and see that a horse was in the back of the field on a day that had a 72 speed bias rating?


UNIVERSAL RAIL/OUTSIDE BIAS RATING

The same way a speed bias can be quickly be determined, a rail/outside bias can also be determined.

Use the first two finishers and the favorite (if not in the first two finishers) and plot where they were most of the race. Anything 2.5 path or greater is consider outside, and anything less than 2.5 path is considered rail/inside.

Again, an average base on the results of the day is made, and a number out of 100 is placed on the running line of each horse's past performances. A 22, for example, would mean a good outside, bad rail, while a 60 would mean a good rail, and a bad outside bias.


TRIP HANDICAPPING MADE SIMPLE

The chart called needs to put down how wide each horse was at three different points of the race. For one turn races, average backstretch, average turn, and average stretch. For races over a mile, average first turn, average backstretch and average final turn.

In a sprint 3R2 means that the horse was 3 wide on average down the backstretch or midpoint of the backstretch, on the rail most of the time on the far turn, and 2 wide either mid stretch or on average during the stretch.

Checked or boxed in (like you see in harness racing) can be illustrated with a small c or b after the specific rating. Using my above example, if the horse was checked in the far turn, the line would read 3Rb2.

This data can replace the comment on the horse's line if space is needed to be accommodated for.


SHOW SCRATCHES ON THE RUNNING LINES

The harness racing folks are way ahead of the thoroughbred folks when it comes to showing the class and competition a horse could have run against if not scratched.

Sure, many past performances available show some scratch info at the end of the card, but it means flipping back and forth, and the information of who the horse would have run against is only available if you dig up your old past performances, or you have a good memory, or happen to have a one-time good memory.

Just like when a horse was previously trained by a someone gives the player something viable to consider, so would seeing a "vet scratch" line 3 weeks ago, with a bad workout following it, for example.



JOCKEY CHANGE MADE ON DAY OF THE RACE

Simply put the jockey's name in italics if he or she was not the named program rider.

Again, the more info, the better for the bettor.


Surely the good people at Equibase can get the show on the road, and make it so that the PERFECT PAST PERFORMANCES can at least be available.

One more thing, if you are a bettor who wants a chance at more preferential treatment by the race tracks, please click here to join HANA, it will take you less than a minute, and it is completely free. We need the numbers to have more clout.

Pictures From Fort Erie On Tuesday

I wound up going to the track on Tuesday after one of the members over at Pace Advantage sent me a message saying he was coming in from British Columbia. I normally like to play from home, but I'll make the odd exception every once in a while.

Just wanted to see if the camera worked. Here is a shot of the start of the fifth race:


Melanie Pinto is all smiles after guiding Love By Design to a romping victory in that fifth race. Remember, you can follow JockeyMel on Twitter.


Let us not forget about Melanie Pinto's agent, former jockey Paul "The Squirrel" Souter. Souter also has the books of Chris Griffith and Sunny Singh.


Here is a pic of Tim from Hastings and Billy Joel. Oh wait, that isn't Billy Joel.


I know I snapped the picture of this romping winner of the 8th race, Miss Yankee at least a few yards before the wire, but I guess she was going too fast, as she won for California Stables and the meet's current leading trainer Daryl Ezra in 1:16:79. Not bad for a filly running for just $5,000 claiming.


The bettors may have gone home, but those dang horses still need to eat:


This stray was found wandering around Daryl Ezra's barn and Daryl decided to keep her. I think they call her Julia:


Fort Erie is a beautiful, but unfortunately there is a good chance that this could be its last year. The owner constantly wants too much for the place, and there is no more money left for Nordic to extort to keep it alive in 2010. The only chance I see Fort Erie sticking it out is if the OLG gives them a special rate on the slot winnings, or Woodbine Entertainment decides they really need Fort Erie to operate.
Could David Willmot save the day?

See also, Track Future Unclear by John Robbins.

Chantal Sutherland Has A New Web Site Join HANA

I know that many people just found this link by searching "Chantal Sutherland." I am being up front here, letting you know that I am exploiting this fact by also trying to talk you into joining the Horseplayers Association Of North America (HANA). If you are a horseplayer, I see no reason why you shouldn't join.

OK, first, like I promised in my post title, here is a link to Chantal Sutherland's new web site. Thank me by coming back and joining HANA (I know you might not be back here for a half hour, but I'm patient).

If you are already a member, tell your horseplayer friends to join. Send them the following link in an email: http://www.jcapper.com/HANA/SignUp/HANASignUpForm.asp?source=1 and you can add Chantal's site too if you wish: http://www.jockeychantalsutherland.com/ . You can also simply email this blog post.

The cost of joining the Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA) is free, but we need bigger numbers to have more clout. Currently we have just under 1200 members (including over 200 from Canada). Here is what one of the HANA founders stated, on the Pace Advantage Forum, about HANA, to someone wondering why he should join:

HANA is what it is. There are no secrets, no magic answers, or magic questions. Horse racing has tried to hoodwink its customers and treated them so poorly for at least three generations that the last thing any horseplayer organization should do is the same.

If you want lower prices so horse racing can compete with other games, and bring new gamblers into the fold and grow the sport, you would be at home in HANA.

If you are tired of seeing racetrack executives that have absolutely zero knowledge of gambling in charge of this game, and want to see new blood, or the old blood expelled from this control, you have a home at HANA.

If you are tired of seeing old time deals, like the data deals which bend horseplayers over the barrel, making them pay thousands of dollars a year for the privilege of giving 25% of each dollar bet to play and support racing, you have a home at HANA.

If you are tired of seeing "tote delay" on your screen because of 1978 technology and no one standing up to do anything about it, you have a home at HANA.

If you are tired of seeing multiple rules violations being treated like a misdemeanor, while seeing treatment of said violations in innumerable ways by jurisdiction, you have a home at HANA.

If you disagree with that stance on those issues, and similar ones, you would not feel at home at HANA. It really is as simple as that. We are not everything to everyone, and would never try to be. We are here for horseplayers, and here to help grow the game of racing, promoting a sea-change in thought, and a sea-change in the way this business has operated.

The business has been run into the ground the last dozen years due to the intransigence and lack of expertise of its leadership, and it is time that it is stopped. In any other business they would be long gone by now, but in horse racing, they need to have that control pried out of their monopolistic fingers.


To join HANA, simply fill out the form here:
http://www.jcapper.com/HANA/SignUp/HANASignUpForm.asp?source=1



You have absolutely no obligation to do anything after you join up. Your participation is valued, but absolutely not required.

The board members do have a weekly conference call every Wednesday night, so if you have an issue you think we should look at, there are many ways to get in touch with us.

HANA has a web site: http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/

HANA has a Forum: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=61

HANA has an email address: horseplayersassociation@gmail.com

HANA has a blog (really, you check it out): http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/

HANA also has a Yahoo Group we support: http://sports.groups.yahoo.com/group/handletalks/

HANA has also put together the most up to date track takeout chart on the internet:
http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbytrackname.html

Again, join HANA, and check out Chantal's website too:)

And don't forget to tell your friends to join as well.


Woodbine Handle for Queen's Plate day up 5.85% from last year

Not sure if Queen's Plate was held on Father's Day last year. But the figures are still impressive in light of the fact that handle has been down around 8-9% almost everywhere in North America so far this year. Did horse racing finally hit bottom?

The increase could be partly due to Woodbine's new agreement with TVG, but more probably is related to their new Turbo Charged Pick 6. Players who normally wouldn't handicap Woodbine yesterday may have made selections, and then were compelled to bet on the individual races besides betting the Pick 6.

$140,000 was added to the pool yesterday in new money bet. But it was hit. Without the $150,000 Woodbine put in, they may have got $10-$20,000 into that pool because it was Queen's Plate day and there would have been a small carryover to begin with. Unfortunately for Woodbine, someone hit it yesterday so they will be putting in another $150,000 next Sunday to Turbo Charge the pool.

So, assuming that this betting gimmick didn't get bettors to play other races (which is probably a bad assumption), on the surface, Woodbine lost around $120,000 so far. It is early though. Lets see what the future brings.

Queen's Plate Prediction & Chantal Sutherland's New Web Site

First thing is first: HANA Pool Party Continues Today
Free past performances (thanks TrackMaster), pace figures (thanks pacefigures.com) and Thorograph for the 7th race at Monmouth is available by clicking here. We opted for a state bred conditioned route race with 11 horses. We would have gone with a grass race, but Mother Nature told us not to.
Energy Crunch, out of post 11 looks like the horse to beat, but he has been off over 40 days. I'll probably be keying Max Hazard first and second in triactors and supers.
Thanks to Equidaily for the Pool Party plug


QUEEN'S PLATE PREDICTION
Tough race, especially since the two fillies have much the best speed figures going into the race. Milwaukee Appeal, is the probable favourite. I successfully picked her in the Oaks, but I'm anticipating a bounce tomorrow, and I'm leaning towards the runner up in that race, Tasty Temptation (the other filly) to win the Plate.

She made a huge move only to flatten out a bit in the stretch in the Oaks. I really like this angle when it comes to horses getting in shape and when they go further off these types of performances, they tend to do very well. Her jockey, Patrick Husbands owns Woodbine right now.

You have to give consideration to Rapid Release because trainer Roger Attfield just knows how to win this race. This one is set up for a peak effort tomorrow. But his best effort may not be good enough to beat the girls.

My long shot is Keino West. If the pace collapses, and in these type of races, it often does, he'll be coming to pick up the pieces. He reminds me of 1986 Plate winner Golden Choice, who was a maiden and won the race back then. Keino West is no maiden, but the way he prepped in the Plate Trial was very similar to the way Golden Choice prepped going into the big race.

I'm not convinced on Eye Of The Leopard. I just think he fluked into the Trial win and he may bounce off that race, but then again, I thought last year's winner, Not Bourbon couldn't get the distance in. In other words, I'm wrong.........a lot.



In what might be the biggest story in horse racing this year, Chantal Sutherland now has her own web site.

Most of the site is a gallery of pictures ranging from racing pics to her Vogue spread.

I'm debating whether to download the Chantal Screensaver.

Here is a pic of Chantal with Illinois based jockey Inez Karlsson:



Speaking of web sites, a worthwhile one has popped up: Permanent Disabled Jockeys Fund


Latest Chad Beckon Update

'Beckon's agent, Tony Esposito, said the rider was still under heavy sedation but was breathing on his own after being taken off a respirator. Esposito added that a CAT scan scheduled for Thursday was canceled because of swelling in Beckon's brain caused by outer cranial bleeding.

Beckon also fractured his cheekbone, nose, and two vertebrae, but Esposito said there was no sign of spinal damage.'

Gary Cruise has moved his tack to Hastings



Fort Erie announced yesterday to their backstretch that they will try to fill 9 races instead of 8 on Mondays and Tuesdays. Lately they've been getting handle of around $800,000 for those days, and another race that happens around 5ish would most likely add another $150,000 to those totals.


Article on current leading trainer at Fort Erie, Daryl Ezra

"One thing I do is to check out the track bias, and if one exists then I let the jockey know the preferable path to be on," he (Ezra) said. "Of course, the pattern of the race can restrict a rider from getting to the ideal path, but when the opportunity is there, it can make that little difference that can mean so much in the final result."

TVG has signed a deal to broadcast races from Woodbine; not everyone is happy with TVG over it
In the HANA section at Pace Advantage, PA member InsideThePylons commented:

HANA should let TVG know that what they have done is bad for all horseplayers
TVG has signed an exclusive with Woodbine/Mohawk and are going to be promoting them heavily in the future.

This is a horrendous precedent that will be bad for the game and bad for every horseplayer.

TVG, as usual, will be promoting......

P-6's = 25% takeout
P-4's = 25% takeout
P-3's = 26.3% takeout
Supers = 26.3% takeout

Thankfully TVG doesn't really promote trifectas at a whopping 27% takeout

While some people will say, so what, it doesn't matter. I don't bet there.....It matters a lot. It is a huge step backwards in trying to send a message that lower takeout matters and should be promoted. It takes more money out of circulation for ALL tracks now that more bettors will be exposed to these tracks for the first time and lose a % of their churn factor to the criminal takeout rates....etc.

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I couldn't agree more!

I think the public is more aware than ever, thanks to the efforts of HANA and blogs like mine when it comes to high takeout rates. Even with the new exposure, Woodbine only did $2.3 million yesterday in handle, even though they carded 10 races.

The public is avoiding or treading lightly when it comes to betting on high takeout tracks.

If you aren't a HANA member, please join up, it is free, and the bigger the numbers we have, the more clout we have.


Pull The Pocket praises Woodbine for their new Pick 6 gimmick
He doesn't think it will work. I do. At least, it will bring in some bigger handles for Sunday racing that will more than pay for Woodbine's cash influx, I believe as I stated in my previous post.

I do want to see the Pick 6 pool to do well, because like Pull The Pocket, I want to see tracks succeed when trying new innovations that are pro-bettor. But I'm mixed about any additional action in other pools Woodbine will gain because of their ridiculously high takeouts on most of their exotics.



Kentucky passes slots bill
From Paulick Report: What happens next.


Penn National is convinced that the problems with United Totes are behind them. They now have reverted back to closing betting when the bell rings.

Woodbine To Jump Start Pick 6 Pools

In a huge move, Woodbine has decided to contribute $150,000 to their, now weekly, Pick 6 pools starting this Sunday.

The Pick 6 pools have been a dismal failure up until now as it took a good 25 racing days for the pool to climb to $100,000. At Woodbine it is hard enough to grab a Pick 3 let alone a $2 Pick 6. Meanwhile, California tracks always gets huge pools, even if it is the first day of a carryover.

This now makes Woodbine's Pick 6 one of the best bets in racing today as bettors are pretty much starting off with a positive takeout, until $600,000 is in the jackpot, as the takeout is 25% for this bet.

On Queen's Plate day, this Sunday, we could see a pool of around $500,000, even more. It will be interesting.

"70 percent of the pick six pool will be allocated to ticket holders with six winners, with the remaining 30 percent to be distributed in consolation payoffs."

If someone hits the Pick 6, Woodbine will replenish the pool the following Sunday after it is hit until the end of this year.

"Our purpose is to raise awareness of Woodbine, predominantly in the United States, where it's sometimes a struggle to get eyes on our product," said Steve Mitchell, CFO of WEG.

Since WEG wants to raise awareness to US bettors, I think I can help a bit:)

Woodbine's Track Takeout (remember, they have slots)
Win Place Show 16.95%
Exactors 20.5%
Triactors 27.0% Ranked 66 out of 71 tracks
Superfectas 26.3% Ranked 64 out of 71 tracks
Pick 3's 26.3% Ranked 68 out of 71 tracks
Pick 4 and 6 25.0%

Keeneland (HANA's number 1 rated track; no slots)
Win Place Show 16.0%
All other bets 19.0%

Definitely, bet the Woodbine Pick 6, if you are so inclined, but keep your hands in your pockets or tread lightly if you bet triactors, supers, or Pick 3's.


Fort Erie Update
I forgot to report a couple of weeks ago that the consortium looking to buy Fort Erie race track waived the June 11th deadline.

In other words, there was no way in hell that they were going to get $35 million guaranteed by the government for the purchase.

So now what?

Nordic gets to keep the $2.5 million they extorted from various parties to keep racing going this year at the Fort.

The Consortium and the HBPA are now trying to come up with a viable solution to keep racing going for a long time. Noble as it may seem, they are really at square one, as they have to come up with dough to buy Nordic out. Whether it comes from one investor who buys the track, or a bunch of investors who buy bits and pieces, they need to most likely come up with a still unrealistic sum of money that Nordic will accept.

The $35 million was a joke, and with the Magna tracks coming onto the market soon, there are only so many buyers willing to buy a racetrack, so the demand for Fort Erie is definitely not great, especially when dealing with Nordic, who historically have overvalued the track by huge sums.

I think the governments participation as guarantor will depend on a couple of things. The price, and how close Fort Erie's bottom line is to break even. And it would have to be very close to break even if the government is to back them.

Again, the only real solution is to give Fort Erie a bigger cut of the revenues from slots, something the OLG doesn't seem to want to entertain.

Speaking of the OLG, they finally awarded the jackpot money to the person who thought he won 2 $1 million jackpots. He got what he was supposed to had there not been a "glitch": $5000.


UPDATE on Chad Beckon
Chad Beckon was involved in a terrible spill last night (Wednesday) at Woodbine. From the Toronto Star:
'Agent Tony Esposito said Beckon was alert immediately following the spill but began drifting in and out of consciousness before being admitted to Sunnybrook's critical care unit. He was to receive a CT scan this morning.

Beckon has two broken vertebrae, a broken nose and cheekbone and "some outer cranial bleeding," Esposito said.

"There's no internal bleeding, no internal injuries that we know and he's been X-rayed from head-to-toe. The only fractures are his face and spine," Esposito said.'

Full article here

Woodbine Lowers Track Takeout On Triactors Slightly

Here is a release from Woodbine Entertainment, with my comments added (of course):

Effective Wednesday, June 17, Woodbine Entertainment Group will reduce the takeout on its live thoroughbred and standardbred triactors to a total takeout of 27%, from 28.3%, when all of the mandatory regulatory deductions are included.

********************************
Though it is encourage to see that a takeout rate has been reduced in North America, lets not get too excited. With this drop, Woodbine now has gone from having the 68th highest triactor track takeout to now being tied for 66th (out of 71 tracks). They "zoomed" by Fort Erie (28.2%) thanks to this drop.

Unlike U.S. racetracks where taxes are primarily applied to winnings, Canada has its taxes applied as a percentage of wagering. More specifically, mandated regulatory deductions account for 6.8% of wagering or about 24% of Woodbine Entertainment Group's (WEG) total triactor takeouts, the majority of which is represented by the province's 4% Horse Improvement Program.

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That is not the consumer's problem. From a customer's standpoint, this is still no justification to have the 66th highest takeout. There are 56 tracks with takeouts of 25% or less, and they all make less than Woodbine does right now when taxes are taken out. And it isn't like the H.I.P. program doesn't help Woodbine's business by making it more lucrative to own a horse running at Woodbine and helping the field size as well because of the purse structure. Bigger fields equals more betting.


WEG's efforts to make its live race triactors more competitive by replacing this excessive pari-mutuel levy with a slots-based levy have been rejected by horsepeople's associations.
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Nobody said the horsepeople's associations understand growth. But again, it is up to Woodbine to explain the situation better to them (they have failed obviously). But it is still good to know that the HPBA are a bunch of collective self serving fools. I knew that already.


Simultaneously, in order to partially offset $1 million of new simulcast costs demanded by some Churchill and Magna controlled tracks, triactor takeout rates on these simulcast signals will increase to the same 27% total takeout including all mandatory deductions.
****************************************
Tracknet has increased signal fees. This hurts the bettor in a big way. Woodbine too, charges a high signal fee, so they aren't innocent here either. And upping the takeout rate to 27% by Woodbine should be deemed illegal. Canadian customers will be getting ripped off even more by WEG if they play Magna or Tracknet tracks. For example, if a triactor pays $810 at Churchill at Churchill, those playing through American ADW's and at Churchill, as well as at simulcast locations will get $810. If someone takes the same risk and cashes the triactor on HPI or Woodbine controlled tracks, the payoff will be $730. This means that nobody should be betting these tracks through HPI. There are alternatives. And players must use these alternatives.

The tracks affected are Arlington Park, California thoroughbred tracks, Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park and Pimlico Racecourse. California regulations also mandate an additional 0.5% on their tri pools.
********************************
Again, if you place a bet on these tracks through HPI or at a track under Woodbine's umbrella, you are a mooch.


WEG understands the sensitivity of price increases but believes that limiting the increase to only tri pools on a small number of tracks is better than the alternative of Churchill and Magna pulling their simulcast signals from the Canadian market.
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Translation: WEG relies on players being suckers and mooches.

As a net result of all these changes, WEG will still absorb approximately 90% of these increased costs or $900,000 per year, in an effort to minimize the impact to its customers. The recent simulcast agreement with Churchill and Magna will ensure their signals remain in Canada at least until the spring of 2011.
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I won't be betting Tracknet or Magna tracks though WEG, so it really doesn't matter to me. It is hard enough to try to beat this game without getting ripped off because a company (WEG) puts itself way ahead of the customer.

If WEG cannot afford to pay out the exact amount that a triactor pays, they should not offer the product, and the government should take steps to not allow them to get away with upping the takeout rate to suit their bottom line.


HANA Pool Party
We are encourage players to put some money in the 9th Race at Monmouth tomorrow. The race is the Monmouth Stakes. Free past performances for the race, thanks to TrackMaster and PaceFigures.com. Strike A Deal might have the fitness edge, but since he is 0 for four at the mile and an eighth distance (with two seconds and a third), he looks like one to include in the exotics, but hard to key on in the first position.


Great article on Presque Isle Downs by someone who really gets it

While some things have improved, others haven't. The sky-high takeout rates that are in place at all Pennsylvania tracks remain in place. Takeout is the set percentage of money taken from a betting pool and not redistributed in winning payoffs.

..............Horseplayer and former economist Maury Wolff has estimated that for every one percentage point increase in takeout, handle decreases between 7 percent and 8 percent. For six consecutive years, Tampa Bay Downs has decreased takeout levels at the start of their meet, and it's no surprise that their racing product has enjoyed a rapid increase in popularity over that time frame.

Management is right when they tell you most bettors don't know that the $470.40 Superfecta payoff they collected on a race at Presque Isle Downs would pay $534.40 had the same race been run at Keeneland Race Course because of the difference in takeout rates between the tracks. However, what most management types fail to realize is that people who get more money back tend to bet more and come back more often, while those who get less back tend to bet less and in a lot of cases give up on the game altogether............

...............Presque Isle Downs has developed a reputation as a track that cares about its own slots players and cares about keeping the horsemen content, but does not care about the horse player.

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Presque Isle, Woodbine, Fort Erie, the list is pretty big when it comes to that last line.

It Looks Like The Curve Is Starting To Catch Up To Me

A couple of things happened in the last week which don't put me quite into sage status, but it does show that my ideas to improve horse racing are not only feasible but workable as well.

Lets start with the first item. A member of Pace Advantage Forums who works at Prairie Meadows has been openly soliciting ideas from HANA members. Whether Prairie Meadows does anything with the ideas is another question.

He made a comment on the board that he was considering variable takeouts depending on field size (I still don't know if he means that the bigger the field size the bigger or smaller the takeout?), but I chimed in and wrote:

I don't get the variable takeout scenario. The more horses in a race, the more is bet, however less players cash because of the degree of difficulty. So less money is churned immediately.
In small fields, less money is bet, but more people cash. And more people will churn back the money won back immediately.

If I ran a track, I would have a base purse for different classes (which are lower than the average), and I would add X amount for each individual starter over 6 horses.

For example, at Fort Erie where they run for around 9,000 for a 4,000 claimer, I would set the base purse at say 7,500, and I would add 500 for every parimutuel entry that starts the race over 6 horses.
So a 7 horse field would have an 8000 purse, and a 10 horse race would have a 9500 purse.

That is the way it should be everywhere. Averages need to be adjusted so that the total purse money available is distributed to the horsemen for the season.

Three days later, Charles Town announced that they would "offer purse incentives in certain races with seven or more starters effective June 6 in an effort to increase field size."

Did the execs read my comments and act on them? I don't know. I do know that racing execs read this blog (lots of hits on my blog comes from Woodbine, for example). The Pace Advantage Forum is the number one horse racing forum on the internet (it attracts the most sophisticated bettors and horsemen), so I have to believe that execs from a multitude of tracks read what is posted there, and most likely, many are forum members as well.

Regardless, of whether Charles Town "stole" my idea, the fact is that my idea was workable and credible.


Now lets look at example number two. After the past posting incidences at Hollywood and Penn National, I started a thread on Pace Advantage about closing the windows at 1 MTP. I even wrote a post on Cangamble about it as well.

At least two thirds of those polled are with me. Close the windows early. Some people suggested right at zero minutes to post, and a few suggested to close the windows when the first horse loads.

So what has happened since? Penn National had another past posting incident Friday night. I received this email yesterday from an ADW:

Effective immediately and until further notice Penn National Race Course will close wagering on all live races as soon as the first horse enters the starting gate.

This move won't help Penn National, who have one of the most brutal track takeouts in North America. Sophisticated bettors (those who also care about integrity), stay clear of the track anyway because of the takeout. And batch bettors (who usually bet with big rebates) will not adjust their system for just one track, so this too will hurt Penn's handle. Many bettors will be turned off by this because they don't have this situation at all other tracks yet. The bulk of betting money comes in late, and until the majority of tracks do the right thing (what Penn is doing), Penn's effort here is fruitless, but I still commend them, and hope the majority of track's follow in their foot steps.


The Woodbine Oaks Goes Today
I like Milwaukee Appeal today to win the race, though I think it is a shame that Scott Fairlie had to import a jockey for the race. If Double Malt gets a decent pace to run at, watch out, she should get a good a piece.