The Ideal Racing Format

I've been handicapping and betting horses since I was 12, and probably even earlier than that (my memory escapes me as to when I actually began system handicapping). I'm 49 right now, so you can do the math.

Things have definitely changed in the world of horse race betting. Now, more than ever before, tracks are competing against each other for the online and simulcast player. Horseplayers like consistency, not only when it comes to form, but also betting format. Every player knows there is an exactor in every race, and there is a double that begins in the first race. This is true everywhere. But after these consistencies, chaos reigns supreme when it comes to betting formats.

Here is my idea of the perfect racing format:

1. 9 races a card. Not 10, not 8, and especially not 7,11, or 12. 9 races is just right when it comes to handicapping. 8 is too few. 10 or more races gets to be a bit overwhelming if you are handicapping by pen and paper as most people do.
Though not carved in stone, there are a few tracks that at least informally look to card exactly 9 races a day, no more, no less.

2. All races must have at least 7 betting interests or the race should just carryover. I realize racing secretaries these days are having a hard time filling some races thanks to a horse shortage brought on because owning a race horse has become less and less economical (especially in bad economic times), however a good racing secretary knows their local horse population, and most realize that if they put 2 or 3 bottom maiden claiming races in the book every day, they can almost be assured to fill 9 races a day.

3. Rolling doubles and pick 3's should be mandatory at each track. Daily doubles give savvy Horseplayers a possible edge over betting two horses to win, pick 3's too often pay much more than a three horse parlay (though the edge isn't as great at most tracks as the takeout is usually higher for pick 3's).

4. Two Pick 4's a day. One starting in the second race, the other in the 6th race. Hawthorne, when they run 9 races a day (which is their usual norm), does this. I know one thing I can't stand, and that is the Pick 4 overlap race. Woodbine often does this with race 7 in a 10 race card. If a handicapper who likes betting pick 4's can't stand the 7th race, he or she might pass the whole card. I think it also causes the late pick 4 to have less money bet into it as many players who are alive may bet less or not bet the late pick 4 at all.

5. Superfectas in every race with 9 or more separate mutuel entrants only. The track takeout is usually highest for supers than any other bets at most tracks, and I realize the public likes them. But having supers on races with short fields really wipes the Horseplayer out much faster. It is kind of like putting a large double cheese pepperoni pizza in front of me instead of a small. I'll eventually eat the large pizza, but it isn't good for me. Superfectas on short fields is not good for the growth of the game.

6. 50 cent minimums on superfectas, pick 4's, pick 5's and pick 6's. $1 minimums on all other bets. The movement towards 10 or 20 cent minimum supers and pick 4's (in Canada) again has a negative affect as it lures small players into high takeout bets that produce very little churn, and this causes players to go broke quicker, and disillusioned faster. The idea of these bets is (or should be) to give Horseplayers the shot at a year changing cash. 50 cent minimums leads to more pool shots and it is the chance of this that will build interest not only from existing players (especially the big bank roll players), but the lottery/slots player as well. Churn will still happen, as there will be more 3 out of 4's or three horses all results for supers. It will also curb the smaller every day player into wagers that produce more churn.

I'll add a few more ideas here that will do nothing but grow the game:

7. A 12% cap on takeout, 10% on WPS. Maybe eventually the powers of racing will get it, but the horsemen need to step aside and let it happen.

8. Eliminate breakage. It is the customer's money. Give it to them. It will get churned back. In today's day and age breakage is simply a way the track rips the Horseplayer off, as the technology is there to pay off in pennies, especially in account wagering systems.

9. Any trainer who is hitting at 25% or greater gets to race from a detention barn until their average drops. If a trainer has at least 50 starts and the field size average is at least 8, there is no way in heck they should be hitting at better than 25% or better without using something that isn't being tested for. That is my story and I'm sticking to it. Drugs not being tested for are bad for the game.


Zenyatta will be on 60 Minutes tonight. Horse Racing Simulation created a race pitting Zenyatta against some of the greatest horses ever:

If it were a true simulation, a race with a field of 10 would produce a different result every time (I wonder if that is the case with this program). I don't think the result of the race will hurt Rachel Alexandra's value as a broodmare.

One thing about this simulation program is that if racing keeps going in the direction it is going, it might be all that is left. The thing is, it could really catch on and attract Horseplayers of today and the future, especially if the takeout was low enough and the possibility of cheating within the program was at least perceived to not exist.


Fort Erie Handle Down 12%
This is worse than the industry average which is between 8 and 9%. And new management was "trying." Imagine if they weren't trying. The reality here is that Fort Erie has the third highest blended track takeout rate in North America. They bleed the Horseplayer, especially the ones that go to the track. The higher the takeout, the less the churn, the quicker the Horseplayer loses interest. It isn't only that, now, more than ever before, Horseplayers are collectively informed and many avoid high takeout tracks when given choice.

The new management is really the old management of Woodbine, and they just don't get takeout. Coupled with being directed by what Horsemen want as opposed to what Horseplayers want or whats best for Horseplayers, Fort Erie's 2010 results were a predicted disaster.

There is a reason why slot takeout is 8-10%. It is the highest rate slot players will tolerate, and most slot players wouldn't be able to tell you what the rate is, it is all about optimal pricing.

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Fort Erie's Season Winding Down

At least they had a 2010 season. But that is about it. The highlight for Fort Erie this year was being able to negotiate with the government to stay alive. Other than that, nothing significant was accomplished. The track is still being run like it is 1965 and there is no competition out there. It will be interesting to see their handle numbers, but my guess is that they will be down.

Fort Erie continues to murder their on track patrons with sky high track takeouts, and that was the first thing that should have been fixed. It is impossible to grow a gambling business with high takeouts.

The government has found it out too, though they don't realize what they found out. Perkins: Internet Forcing Government's Hand On Sports Betting. The government "thinks" that single game sports betting will be a win fall for them allowing them to compete with sites like Betfair or bookies, etc. Well, apparently not if the government runs it:

'...the OLG’s Pro-Line parlay game is drying up; for the fiscal year ended in March of 2009, OLG sports lotteries took in only $249 million (and paid out only $156 million, or 63 per cent, to winners). Most smart bettors have long since tossed aside parlay cards in favour of single-game betting on the Internet, with its 10 per cent “juice.'

No, Pro-Line is drying up because of the 37% takeout. A three team parlay with most bookies has a takeout of 12.5%. Only the true brain dead play Pro-Line, and because of the high takeout, they get wiped out very quickly.

Will they have single games where the house edge is 4.6% like bookies offer? I highly doubt it. We will see.

The government (OLG) has a license to print money by allowing parlays, but so far they have blown it. They, like the racing industry have forced most moderate and big gamblers to gamble anywhere but Canada.


Battle Of The Breeds At Fort Erie Today

Definitely an interesting concept. This is probably the first time that a race pitting thoroughbreds and quarter horses has ever occurred in Ontario. Yesterday's race didn't count, as it attracted one thoroughbred (Black Napkins), and quarter horses in the gate with her must have confused the heck out of her. When the gate opened, it appeared she started looking for thoroughbreds to race against.

According to figures, quarter horses have a huge edge going a quarter of a mile. But today's distance is around 4 furlongs. I believe the thoroughbreds have the edge today. I can see Daverick and Wasted running one two.


Another excellent blog piece by Craig Walker over at TrackMaster Blog
Craig has posted the best deals out there as far as takeout goes in both harness racing and thoroughbred racing.

His ideas on increasing handle are right on, though his idea about artificial tracks can be definitely argued against in regards to increasing handle.


Another Typical Bad Move By Woodbine When It Comes To Retaining Long Term Customers

In case you haven't noticed, Woodbine has now put a superfecta in every race that has at least 7 betting interests.

This is something the Woodbine brass feels is the right thing because the public wants it. Just because the general public wants it, doesn't mean it will increase business.

The problem is the takeout for the bet is 26.3%. The payoffs tempt the Horseplayer to bet these things, and putting them in every race, especially races with fields of less than 9 horses, will erode the Woodbine player's bankroll even faster than before.

Because Woodbine core customer's don't have an endless supply of money, what this does is take the Horseplayer out of the game faster, and it is terrible for long term business. The blended takeout to the Horseplayer is now higher, as they won't be putting new money towards these bets, but money that might have gone on other bets with lower takeouts like WPS or exactors.

Big Day At Woodbine Today

Woodbine's Super Saturday is upon us. $3,500,000 in purses (The Canadian and US dollar are almost at par, so it really is $3.5 million) will be given out over three successive races.

Even if track takeout was 30% (Woodbine isn't quite that high), it would take almost $12 million in live handle to pay for those purses alone, and that is assuming all the money goes to purse accounts.

Is it worth giving out that much money in only three races? When you look at the handles on weekdays, I would say no. Not as long as Woodbine still has high takeout levels that stifle growth to the extent that a big show like today is meaningless in the long run.

The total purse money given out today represents half the money Fort Erie gives out in an entire year. I'm not a Communist, but I think it would be best to spread out that kind of dough amongst all the owners, and not just a few. Besides Horseplayers, growth can occur out of new owners who think they have a reasonable shot at breaking even or making money. There is only a tiny amount of elite owners who are in it for the home run.

Before I get to my picks, I have to bring up one more thing that bothers me when it comes to purse distribution, and even betting. It is the what seems to be endless amount of races at Woodbine that have big purses, that are made to go because one trainer enters two horses. If you look back at this year, overnight handicaps with $100,000 purses have been able to go thanks to this loop hole.

The bad thing about the loop hole is that almost every single time this has occurred, one of the trainer's horses mysteriously needed to be vet scratched. I don't blame trainers like Nick Gonzalez, Terry Jordan, Don MaCrae and others for taking advantage of the loop hole, I blame the system which makes this an easy thing to make a mockery of.

Today's first race is a good example of what could happen. A six horse barely bettable race where the one and two are both trained by Sid Attard. These horses have a reasonable shot of running 1-2, but there is a high likelihood one of them will come up with a cough and have to be scratched (at the time of this writing scratches are not out). It would turn the race into a five horse affair, and it is lousy for betting, and lousy for racing in general.

OK, now for my selections.

NEARCTIC STAKES

I've always like Grand Adventure. He has the best figures going, and just needs a little give to the turf and a little racing luck to come out ahead.

EP TAYLOR STAKES

I think Reggane will beat Shalanaya today. It has to do with cycles.

CANADIAN INTERNATIONAL

I didn't want to pick the now infamous Fifty Proof, but because of the way I handicap, and all the angles I consider, Fifty Proof has as good of a chance as anything in this field. This is jockey Justin Stein's biggest race ever, and I do give the connections Kudo's for sticking with him. The horse is vastly improved, and seems to love the lawn and the distance. One thing that could hurt him though is weight. He is picking up 9 pounds, while the horse who beat him last time out, Redwood, is picking up 7. Redwood though is more likely to bounce. The horse to beat is Chinchon.

As an aide, I wonder if the Stewards would at least put up the Inquiry sign if Fifty busts through the gate before the other horses are dispatched today. My guess is yes, and it would rightfully lead to a disqualification this time around.

It is still going to be hard for me root for a horse owned by a bunch of Woodbine board members who wound up receiving extraordinary consideration by the track Stewards and then the Ontario Racing Commission.


Science Stuff from MSNBC: THE SCIENCE OF HORSE RACING
Interesting stuff about the positioning of a jockey on a horse. It explains why a jockey out of the stirrups gives the horse no chance to win.


THIS IS THE BEST WAY TO CLEAN UP CHEATING: TRAINER FACES FELONY CHARGES FOR INJECTING HORSE

Prosecutors have brought criminal charges for a horse-racing violation - believed to be a first in the state of Iowa.

Brian Muse faces three felony counts of cheating at a gambling game for allegedly injecting two animals with unknown substances Sept. 24, hours before their quarter-horse races at Prairie Meadows.

Muse denied it. The Stewards let him go. But tapes showed up. Caught in the act.

Maggi Moss has her panties in a knot, saying this is an abuse of power. She also said that racing authorities are set up to be stricter than any court. Really? When was the last time a trainer was sent to jail by a racing commission?

The reality is that there is defrauding of the public happening here because, people bet their money on races. There is also defrauding of the other horsemen who have clean operations that are run by the book.

A jail sentence could be what is needed to scare the bejeebers out of the cheaters.

By the way, one of the horses injected on tape won a $68K stake race and the other was third is a race with a purse of over $140K.

The horses in question did not test positively, which is not a shocker. Trainers generally stay clear of drugs that are tested for. The big question is what was in the syringes?

It surely wasn't a placebo which was given to fool the horses into believing they were drugged. I don't think horses are that smart.

What I find to be the biggest problem here, is the horsemen's attitude that this should stay out of criminal court. If I was a horseman who trained clean, I would want criminal charges to weed out the cheaters. It makes me wonder if this is not just a rare occurrence but a very widespread one.

Hialeah Gets It

Hialeah Park recently announced they are dropping their takeout to 12% on all bets. Now this is forward thinking at its finest. It is unfortunate that Hialeah runs such a short meet, and that they don't have thoroughbred racing (only quarter horse racing) yet.

This is a track looking to rebuild. Another track looking to rebuild is Fort Erie. They have done nothing in the takeout reduction area, and now have an average takeout twice the amount of Hialeah's new rates. I'm disappointed in Fort Erie and their new regime. Problem is that they went with the old guard who just don't get takeout. No clue. Fort Erie has the second worst blended takeout rate in North America. And since the overwhelming majority of bets happen at venues where they only get a fraction of the takeout rate, the only people getting constantly slaughtered by the rate are those who attend races live. They give these patrons who cash tickets less than 99% of the tracks in North America. The players have less to bet back, go broke quickest, and are likely to come back less.

This is not how to grow a business. Give players more money back and they will bet more and come back more often.

It took John Brunetti Jr. to do the opposite of what his dad did 17 years ago which helped put the final nail in Hialeah's coffin at the time when he raised takeout to levels that resemble Fort Erie's today.

The biggest problem Hialeah will have now is exposure. Barring a miracle of Biblical proportions, Canadians won't be able to find Hialeah at HPI or any Canadian racetracks, unless the tracks pay a lot less than what Hialeah patrons would get on track.

This is what is sad about the industry today. Even in the USA, I don't expect many tracks to carry Hialeah. ADWs will probably have them, but only ADWs like this one will actually look forward to having them on the menu.

Hialeah's drop in takeout comes into effect around the same time as the mindless takeout hike in California. I believe a lot of pissed off Horseplayers are going to divert some funds and give Hialeah a try.

TrackMaster recently upgraded the way they do speed figures for Quarter Horse racing, probably giving their customers the best edge amongst past performance distributors.

They also added a trouble indicator in their thoroughbred past performances.

I know for a fact that this company actually listens to the customer.


The Breeder's Crown, harness racing's version of the Breeder's Cup races tonight (Saturday) at Pocono Downs. Post time is 5PM. Here are free past performances for the event.


The Knight Sky has put all the finalists in the University of Arizona's Racetrack Industry Program's Funniest Horse Racing Video contest on his website.

The one I laughed at the most was the one on the top right. The one done by Grand River (the one at the bottom right of the second section) also gave me a chuckle.


The ORC released their ruling which allows Woodbine to ban Bruno Schickedanz indefinitely from stabling and running horses at Woodbine because of the Wake At Noon tragedy.

It is a pretty long ruling, but interesting nonetheless. The most damning part of the report to me was this:

“I was spending money on the horse and I was researching what the possible options could be.” “No decision had been made on any of those options.”
“Q. And when you say you were spending money on the horse I take it that if he was racing you were hoping to get some of that back?
A. I think anybody would be thinking that if they were doing it. Is that a bad thing by the way?”

Interesting that this is track specific, and I believe Schickedanz can still stable and race at Fort Erie.

They nailed him on conduct unbecoming to horse racing, because it appears he didn't violate any other rules.

The ORC should put in new rules so that morally bankrupt acts like this are dealt with in not such a vague manner.

Of course, at least to me and probably many others, the ORC has major credibility issues due to their recent mind numbing decision in letting Fifty Proof's result to stand. A couple of comments from Jen's Blog:

W. McGovern - October 5th, 2010 at 5:25 pm

Excellent blog Jen. This is a great source for racing info covering Ontario. Regarding Fifty Proof: this stinks. I’ve seen similar starts result in a DQ…and then there’s the Wilmot (sic) angle which further makes it stink. If I were racing at Woodbine, I’d keep a copy of that start on hand just in case you ever got a DQ for a similar situation.

Keep up the excellent work, Jen. Your blog is a pleasure to read. I have written to the ORC regarding the Fifty Proof matter. I hope that others do too. The decision is nonsensical. If the gate was functioning properly then the only explanation is that Fifty Proof pushed it open. Totally contrary to what the Chairman says. A disgrace for horse racing in Ontario.

So You Want To Be A Steward

Have you ever wondered what it takes to be a Steward or be an Ontario Racing Commission judge? Here is a test case for you. There is a mini quiz afterward. Lets see if you have what it takes.

First, here is some evidence:

Below is a screen shot of the start of Indian Apple Is (Not owned by Good To Be King Farms) from August 15th 2010:

Below is the screen shot of the start of Fifty Proof (co-owned by Good To Be King Farms) from July 22 this year

Here is a screen shot from right after the gate opens for the rest of the horses in the Indian Apple Is (not owned by Good To Be King Farms) race:

Here is a screen shot from right after the gate opens for the rest of the horses in the Fifty Proof (co-owned by Good To Be King Farms) race:

Now, there is no need to go through the ORC Rule Book. I've done it for you. Here is the only rule that matters in cases where a horse breaks through the gate before the starter hits the release:

ORC rule 11.16 states that a horse is a starter “when the stall doors of the starting gate open in front of it at the time the starter dispatches the horses in a valid start.”

Now for the quiz. Read the questions and answers carefully.

1) If a horse is not owned by Good To Be King Farms and the horse breaks through the gate before the starter opens the gate for the rest of the horses:

A) The horse is definitely not a starter because the rules state that the gate has to open IN FRONT of the horse by the starter. If a horse is not a starter, it is logical that the horse is a non starter. This is not rocket science.

B) Even though there is nothing about it in the rule books about whether a horse who breaks through the gate has an advantage, the Stewards get to try to determine if it was an unfair advantage. For some Stewards, an unfair advantage might mean a quarter of a length head start, while other Stewards may decide that a horse needs at least a three quarter of a length head start to have an advantage. And some Stewards can even take who owns the horse into account as well.

2) If a horse is owned by Good To Be King Farms and the horse breaks through the gate before the starter opens the gate for the rest of the horses:

A) Even though there is nothing about it in the rule books about whether a horse who breaks through the gate has an advantage, the Stewards get to try to determine if it was an unfair advantage. For some Stewards, an unfair advantage might mean a quarter of a length head start, while other Stewards may decide that a horse needs at least a three quarter of a length head start to have an advantage. And some Stewards can even take who owns the horse into account as well.

B) The horse is definitely not a starter because the rules state that the gate has to open IN FRONT of the horse by the starter. If a horse is not a starter, it is logical that the horse is a non starter. This is not rocket science.

3) The first thing Stewards are supposed to do after a race is check out the start to see if there was any major bumping or gate violations that might necessitate in a declared non starter. If a Steward sees that a horse not owned by Good To Be King Farms pushes the gate open early:

A) The Steward automatically puts up the Inquiry sign and then views the tapes over and over to see if this was indeed the case and if so, declares the horse a non-starter.

B) The Steward does not put up an Inquiry so as to draw attention to the violation, as the public knows exactly what a fair start is and that if a horse opens the gate before the official starter opens the gate, a refund is expected. To put up an Inquiry in such a case and then decide that despite the violation in rules that the horse is declared a starter could result in garbage cans being lit on fire.

4) If a Steward sees that a horse not owned by Good To Be King Farms pushes the gate open early:

A) The Steward does not put up an Inquiry so as to draw attention to the violation, as the public knows exactly what a fair start is and that if a horse opens the gate before the official starter opens the gate, a refund is expected. To put up an Inquiry in such a case and then decide that despite the violation in rules that the horse is declared a starter could result in garbage cans being lit on fire.

B) The Steward automatically puts up the Inquiry sign and then views the tapes over and over to see if this was indeed the case and if so, declares the horse a non-starter.

5) You are a judge at an appeal regarding whether a horse not owned by Good To Be King Farms is a non starter or deemed to be starter. The person in charge of opening the gates states: "the starting gate mechanism had functioned properly and that all horses received a fair start."

A) The starting is made so that it will open upon force, so this little tidbit of information has nothing to do with whether a horse out broke the gates. The wording of "fair start" is very subjective, because the visual evidence runs contrary when it comes to the horse that broke through the gate, unless you want to say that all horses had a fair start, but the horse who broke through the gate had a more fair start than the others.

B) This is very important testimony. The gates were functional, and it really doesn't matter that a horse happened to outbreak the gates. Had the horse not outbroke the gate, it would have had the same advantage as the rest of the field. Therefore, the horse should be declared a starter, case closed.

6) You are a judge at an appeal regarding whether a owned by Good To Be King Farms is a non starter or deemed to be starter. The person in charge of opening the gates states: "the starting gate mechanism had functioned properly and that all horses received a fair start."

A) This is very important testimony. The gates were functional, and it really doesn't matter that a horse happened to outbreak the gates. Had the horse not outbroke the gate, it would have had the same advantage as the rest of the field. Therefore, the horse should be declared a starter, case closed.

B) The starting is made so that it will open upon force, so this little tidbit of information has nothing to do with whether a horse out broke the gates. The wording of "fair start" is very subjective, because the visual evidence runs contrary when it comes to the horse that broke through the gate, unless you want to say that all horses had a fair start, but the horse who broke through the gate had a more fair start than the others.


If you answered A to every question above, congratulations, you qualify to be a Steward in Ontario and maybe even an ORC judge. Remember one thing though, INTEGRITY MATTERS most of the time.

Read about the Fifty Proof appeal here.


Through the grapevine, things are improving at Woodbine under Nick Eaves. I'm being told he is more open to suggestion than his predecessor. The people under him aren't scared to make suggestions either. And it appears he is attempting to grow the customer base, while actually listening to the customer.

HPI has a great promo going today:

Get up to $100 Cash Back!

It pays to play on Hawthorne Gold Cup day.

I think Woodbine is starting to get it:

HPI is going to reward you for getting in on great three-year-old racing at the $250,000 Hawthorne Gold Cup on Saturday, October 2nd. The feature race has historically been a stepping stone to the Breeders' Cup and highlights a race card of full fields and larger pools that aren't to be missed.

It's simple, here's how:

Get up to $100 when you bet through your HPI account on any race of the Hawthorne Race Course card on Saturday, October 2nd.

Listed below are the minimum bet amounts required to reach each cash back level:

$100 gets you $10
$200 gets you $25
$300 gets you $45
$400 gets you $75
$500 gets you $100

*Offer valid for open HPI accounts in good standing. Only wagers made on the Hawthorne race card on October 2, 2010 qualify for the Cash Back offer. HPI member must wager a minimum of $100 in order to qualify for the Cash back. Maximum of $100 Cash Back per account. Deposits will be made to qualified HPI accounts by October 6, 2010.

I hope a lot of HPI account holders take advantage of this. It might push Woodbine in the right direction for good. Who knows, maybe they'll do something about their takeout, especially now with many Horseplayers enraged over the takeout hike that is coming in California. I know that in Fort Erie, a lot of people started going to Little Caesar's since it came to town with their $5 pizzas, taking away business from other pizza joints, even causing at least a couple to reduce their prices to compete.

Imagine that, there are businesses actually reduce their price to consumers to compete. The owners of these companies wouldn't last very long as racing execs:)


Quarter horse races start at Fort Erie today for the next few Saturdays. I wish Fort Erie well, but I think if there is a way to lose money on this, Fort Erie will do so. I don't see this generating much interest. But I've been wrong before.