TVG Racing Roundtable On Drugs In Racing

This is a pretty long video, but anyone who has an opinion of drugs in horse racing or has more than a passing concern really should give it a watch:

A lot of talk and disagreement, but the one thing that stands out (and it took a call in at around the one hour mark), and that is the admission that testing for EPO (add DPO and ITPP which were not mentioned) is a rare event, so all the great stats about the minute percentage of positives are meaningless, and yes, there is a problem, and it isn't just perception...it is perception about something that is real.

How to cut down spending on tests?  Simple.  More severe fines and suspensions including criminal charges and the threat of jail time.

Also, I've always had an issue about tainted/contaminated samples. If it is so easy to taint a sample or accidentally give a horse cocaine (contamination from a using groom for example), then why aren't there a lot more overages?

Trainer Ron Ellis came out of this discussion looking like the Court Jester.  Talk of needing Lasix to race horses more often really lands on a deaf ear, especially when considering that in the 60's and early 70's horses were running a more than they are today.


The highlight of the discussion was Ray Paulick quoting a study by HANA.  I have to say that Paulick was dead on with his comments throughout the Roundtable, he may appear out of touch when it comes to the Horseplayer, but after watching the interview, I'm beginning to think that the act is strictly for show.  Or, just maybe, that wasn't Ray Paulick but Kevin Bacon impersonating Paulick.  That would explain a lot.

Horse racing definitely needs more Jack Van Bergs.

Horse Racing Should Explore The Fantasy Phenomenon

Horse racing has been trying to tap into new markets in an attempt to add its fan base (which is dying out quicker than it can be replaced). Biggest problem is that there is a huge learning curve, and the fact that there are few long term winners and virtually no visible long term winners, there is close to no reason for a new gambler to learn how to play, and there is very little motivation for existing sports bettors and poker players to take up horse race handicapping and gambling as a hobby.

I'm optimistic that horse racing will soon wake up and reduce takeout levels to more optimal percentages, and it may take exchange betting (which I believe is inevitable) to get those in control to really see the light.

But for now, horse racing desperately needs to get what it can take in the way of gamblers, and one way that really hasn't been tried is a widespread Fantasy Game that is easy enough to figure out.

Fantasy Sports is huge. It is estimated that over 32 million people in the US and Canada played Fantasy Sports in 2010. If horse racing could just appeal to .5% of that crowd (160,000 people), there would be a huge chance for major growth.

The demographics Fantasy Sports attracts is mouth watering for the horse racing industry.  Close to 25% of males between 18-49 play Fantasy Sports.

I've been playing Fantasy Football for close to 20 years. I used to play other sports as well but found the seasons to be too long, and the day to day monitoring was like having a part time job (This is why each Fantasy Horse Racing game needs to be of short duration, and because of that, can't include horses as some may race only once in a 10 week span, and some none at all, and monitoring horse injuries becomes too complicated).

The focus needs to be on jockeys and trainers. Daily action for most of the roster. Stats are free and easy to access. And newbies can easily understand the stats to begin with, without having any knowledge of horse racing, trainers, or jockeys. The idea of course, is to get them to delve in more and more. They might even start betting:)

Now for my idea of what the new Fantasy Horse Racing game should look like.

FANTASY HORSE RACING GAME
The active roster has 10 trainers and 10 jockeys:
Elite trainers (2)
(trainers who made more than $4 mill last year)
High volume trainers (4)
(trainers had at least 250 starts last year who are not elite trainers)
Other trainers (4)
(trainers who had less than 250 starts last year who are not elite trainers)
Elite Jockeys (2)
(jockeys with more than $6.5 million in earnings last year)
High volume jockeys (4)
Jockeys with at least 750 mounts last year
Other jockeys (2)
Jockeys with less than 750 mounts last year
Apprentice jockeys (2)
Jockey must be an apprentice when the contest is announced.

Categories:
Trainer wins
Jockey wins
Trainers in the money total
Jockeys in the money total
Win %
ITM %
Total purses jockeys (individual race purses are capped at $150,000)
Total purses trainers (individual race purses are capped at $150,000)

Contest lasts 10 weeks (weekly prizes and Grand prizes)
Substitute Bench consists of 5 jockeys and 5 trainers. Switches can be made weekly (by Sunday night for the following week).

There are also 8 total roster changes allowed as well, where you can switch a trainer or jockey from your current roster or bench with someone currently not on your team.
Points are determined by adding overall rankings in each category. For example, if one is ranked 230th overall in trainer wins, 3rd in jockey wins, 245th in trainer ITM, 18th in jockey ITM, 163rd in Win %, 143rd in ITM %, 111th in jockey purses, and 212th in trainer purses, total points for this player would be 1,125. The lower the total the higher one is ranked.
There could also be league totals where friends can choose to go into specific leagues or a player can be put into a league randomly, and leagues can consist of anywhere between 25 and 100 players (and individual league prizes can be awarded).


Jockey and trainer values: To keep from everyone selecting a Ramon Dominguez, for example, each trainer and jockey has to have a predetermined value. The live roster can have a value cap of $1 million for example. Ramon Dominguez may have a value of $150,000, while another elite jockey, may have a value of $80,000, while another elite jockey may have a value of $110,000.

Values are determined based on a formula (which I haven't perfected yet) that takes into account how points are awarded in this fantasy game taking into account last year’s individual stats. So up and comers will most likely be valuable to have on ones roster.

Jockeys and trainers available to be selected for the game can only show up in one sub group. For example, if an Apprentice is an Elite jockey as well, he or she would show up under the Elite sub group only.

New games during the year, can adjust for current production (in other words, a trainer or jockeys value can be based on the previous 365 days, not the last calendar year).

Cost (Examples): Should be minimal, even free. The idea is to get new interest in horse racing, not cannibalize existing players (this is why an organization like the NTRA should perhaps run with it). If costs are required, no more than a $20 entrance fee. Weekly switches should be no more than 50 cents each, and new roster purchases should not be more than $2.

Prizes need to be as high as possible. $5,000-$10,000 for the overall 10 week winner. $2-5,000 for second, $1,000-$2,000 for third, etc. Payouts to the top 10 leaders. $500 to $1,000 for winning a league if leagues are used.
Weekly prizes of $500 for the top overall player for the week, and $50 for the top league player for the week.

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Fort Erie Gets More Band Aid Money

Good news for the Fort Erie backstretch was announced this week. Fort Erie is getting funding for 7 more racings days, so they can prolong their race season to the end of October instead of the middle of October.

The additional funding is coming from the HBPA. The Ontario HBPA is funded from a portion of the 2% additional takeout on all wagers made in Ontario (4% on triactors). Woodbine was able to negotiate that down to 2% on triactors last year and passed the savings onto the customer as takeout was reduced from 27% to 25% on that wager. It helped make Woodbine's product more appealing to their ever growing US base.

Fort Erie on the other hand is literally hanging on by a micro thread. Total handle was down 19% last year, which was almost triple the North American average. The only bright spot was an increase in handle in the Pick 4, which was due to dropping takeout on that wager from 26.2% to 14%.

The betting public is more and more aware of takeout, and at 26.2%, Fort Erie's takeout on doubles and exactors is an insult to those who have any knowledge about track takeout. But even those who are unaware (including on track patrons) just don't get enough gambling satisfaction from churn because of the high rate. In other words, Fort Erie is doing nothing to cultivate its live Horseplayer when it comes to gambling. Fort Erie needs to reduce takeout on doubles and exactors to the 20-21% range (Woodbine has a 20.5% takeout on these wagers). California A tracks are still suffering major backlashes and a tarnished image from raising takeout on two horse wagers from 20.68% to 22.68% at the start of last year.

The four o'clock post time didn't work out. Probably an hour to an hour and a half too late. The later post time does make sense in the summer especially, and it is still something that is needed to get the dinner internet crowd on the later races.

Sunday racing is close to pointless. Even Presque Isle Downs has figured it out and have done away with weekend racing this upcoming season. B and C tracks need to find niche times and dates. Fort Erie would probably do much better with a 2 PM post time on Wednesdays instead of racing on Sundays.

Still not a fan of giving out so much money on faux allowance races. Fort Erie would be better served if they used those funds to prop up the purses for the $4,000 to $10,000 claimers. That is their niche, and at current purse levels, it is not economically viable to pay day pay for a horse that runs at Fort Erie. Fort Erie needs more owners as more owners wind up bringing newbies (potential new Horseplayers) to the game. I think by increasing bottom level purses and decreasing the higher end purses(or eliminating the higher end purses), that this could be achieved.

Fort Erie also has to aggressively push patrons to ADW wagering. Right now, they use HPI but they do little to push their visitors to open online accounts. And those with online accounts in the Fort Erie home market don't receive any rebates through HPI. Woodbine's home market members at least receive something depending on their wagering levels.

The biggest reason I don't think we will see any necessary changes is that Fort Erie is in the third and final year of a temporary bail out (a band aid) by the government. Unless there is certainty soon that the bail out will continue, I only see management having one foot in the door, one foot out the door. Without the same type of deal long term, Fort Erie will not have a chance to open in 2013, unless Nordic sells it to someone with deep pockets, and that seems highly unlikely.

I do think the Consortium is doing their best to avoid closure, and they basically saved Fort Erie and gave it the life it has right now. But, and this a big but, they don't seem to understand the gambling public, or the direction horse race gambling is going these days.

On a positive note, Fort Erie's website is very good, by the way. Free replays, free video and a free tip sheet. These are things that help, but the pricing of the bet is the most important thing these days.


DRF has increase subscription prices again, and Horseplayers aren't impressed. There is a big debate going on as to whether racing information should be free. Fantasy football fans have no problem getting stats on just about everything for free, and we've seen nothing but growth in that area. Anyway, a very good alternative to DRF is TrackMaster:


A study suggests that casinos would produce around an extra half a million a day to be given out in purses and breeder awards if Kentucky were to be able to put casinos in racetracks. That aint hay.


In case you have missed it, horse racing appears to have their own version of Casey Anthony. The Paulick Report has done a very good job covering the story of Kelsey Lefever, who allegedly sold over 120 thoroughbreds to killers, many were supposedly acquired under the guise that the race horse was going to find a good home.

Kelsey Lefever: Every One Of Them Is Dead

Pennsylvania Farm Fires Kelsey Lefever

Probable Cause Affidavit and Charges Against Kelsey Lefever

Kelsey Lefever Case: How to Prevent the Alleged Practices?

Pennsylvania congressman calls for passage of slaughter prevention bill

December Handle Numbers Buck The Trend BUT...........

If only a 17.88% increase in handle in December was an apples to apples increase compared with December 2010.

First off, race days increased 10% which should mean an approximate gain of 10%. Then you have the closing of the NYOTBs in December 2010 (the OTB player has by now found an alternative), and of course Gulfstream instead of Calder had to help handle numbers.

Other factors to think about is the increased takeout in California which has a negative effect on handle overall, but then again, many tracks operating in December had lowered takeout on a few bets (like Hawthorne, Tampa Bay and Charles Town). However, signal fees have trended up from a year ago as well, which should decrease handle.

If I remember correctly, weather was pretty ugly in December and January last year causing quite a few cancellations (but that is reflective in the amount of racing dates).

And of course, the North American has improved ever so slightly.

One more thing. The US poker ban in April should have had a very positive effect on handle, however, because poker is perceived as beatable and horse racing is not, the amount of poker players horse racing was able to lure in has probably been very minuscule.

All in all, the December numbers look to me at best to be a wash over last year. Now, this is still an improvement over the 4 year huge slide we've seen, and perhaps a sign that the industry has bottomed out. But if it stays status quo as far as pricing is concerned, even a buoyant economy will mean very little when it comes to handle increases in the future.

The reality is that the new blood the game desperately needs will not be cultivated the same way the current Horseplayer was (years of going to the track with mom and dad, etc.). The new player will be attracted to the game if and only if the game is perceived as beatable by at least a few. Tomorrow's player will not be required to go the track to become a regular and the industry has to understand this.

Lower takeout across the board and betting exchanges are a must if the industry is to become relevant again.

NYRA Goof Up A Long Term Win For The Industry and NYRA

Lots has been written regarding NYRA's overcharge. They were supposed to drop takeout to 25% on all exotics that had a 26% rate 15 months ago.

The end result is that mutuel payouts were shortchanged by $8 million. And contrary to what many think, NYRA didn't come out ahead by that $8 million. In fact, I'll argue that virtually nobody benefited from the mistake, until now.

Those betting through NYRA or their ADW were shortchanged $1.1 million. The reality is that most, if not all of that money would have been rebet until eventually lost. The game doesn't have very many winners, especially those who pay 26% takeout rates. So what really happened here is that New York Horseplayers didn't last as long as they should have. Most likely, there was little financial loss by the player in the scheme of things, except when players last longer they tend to add more new money (which most inevitably lose). The opposite of course occurs when takeout rates are higher and payoffs are lower.

Since 26% is higher than optimal takeout (a rate we can only speculate on), it only makes sense that bottom line revenues would have been higher had the takeout been
lowered on time. So NYRA probably lost out.

However, NYRA has vowed to pay back those who can prove they were short changed who played on track or with a NYRA ADW. The rate of shortchange isn't 1%, but 1.351% of all cashed tickets for all exotics except exactors, quinellas, and doubles, oh and Pick 6's (75% divided by 74%).

Since the damage has already been done regarding lost churn and gambler satisfaction, when NYRA actually gives the refunds back, much of this money will eventually be churned again, and those getting the refund will have a temporary jump start with a replenished bankroll. And to top it all off, they will be betting into lower takeouts as NYRA is now reducing takeout on the overcharged betting types by 2%.

Now what about the other $7 million that didn't make it to the payout prices?

Tracks sell their signal to ADWs, simulcast outlets and other tracks for a percentage that is lower than the actual takeout rate. The bet taker keeps the difference between the takeout rate and the signal fee which is used to pay track expenses, purses, technology expenses, marketing, tote fees, and wages, and in the case of ADWs that give rebates....rebates.

In the case of tracks and ADWs that either don't give rebates or don't rebate based on specific wager types and tracks, the NYRA mistake wound up with them. Instead of the difference between 25% and the signal fee, these outlets wound getting the difference between 26% and the signal fee.

However, again, gambler satisfaction (which is mostly innate) was damaged as they received less money than they should have, and couldn't churn as much as they should have. So using the same logic as with NYRA in house players, these bet takers probably showed an overall decrease in revenue than they would have had if the error was caught in time.

Regarding rebate ADWs that give specific rebates based on bet type and track, the Horseplayers there most likely wound up slightly ahead. Had the rates dropped by 1%, the rebates too, would have dropped by 1%. So instead of getting back the extra 1.1351% on cashed wagers, these players wound up getting back and extra 1% on all monies wagered on the affected bet types. Pretty much a stale mate. The industry didn't lose on these players overall, nor was gambler satisfaction and churn affected. Exception, of course, to anyone who showed an overall profit on the affected NYRA wager types, and rebate or no rebate, that number is most likely minuscule.

So going forward, this faux pas by NYRA has resulted in a takeout reduction. A forced experiment which may lead to further reductions, not just by NYRA but other tracks as well. Churn will now increase and along with that, player satisfaction is about to rise.

I'm not defending the mistake at all, but I hope NYRA handle starts showing tremendous increases. It will be great for the game if that happens.

This mistake could be the beginning of a brand new phase of growth, a turning point, much like the turning point when the first chimp actually spoke in the Planet of the Apes series. Instead of the rise of the chimp, it is the Horseplayers turn, one can only hope:)

One more thing, on a quasi related note, RIP Cheetah 1931-2011. The 1930's, those were the days, a 10% average takeout....they were onto something back then.

17-20-22

Reducing takeout in today's horse racing environment is a complicated issue. For future growth, it is a must, but tracks reducing rates are bound to feel at least a little short term heat.

The problem is that the majority of track handle, in most cases, comes from sources where that particular track is not necessarily the only focus of the bettor who plays it. Much of the money that is cashed on a track with a lower takeout rate gets bet back on other tracks. The majority of ADW and simulcast players are not price sensitive to the point that they choose tracks that are more Horseplayer friendly in the way of takeout. There is good reason to believe that the majority of players fly by the seat of their pants, starting with a certain bankroll (possibly adding to what they were willing to lose at the start of the day if they don't hit early enough), and they continue playing 2-5 tracks or more until they are tapped, or they actually run out of time or races to bet for the day (which ensures they will have a bankroll for tomorrow).

The bulk of the money being bet by the price sensitive minority. Whales for the most part, but also systematic players who only bet when they get value. Value is enhanced greatly by either low takeout, or through rebates (but generally, from tracks that don't charge high signal fees, therefore keeping net takeout for those tracks to be comparatively lower).

HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) has done an excellent job in educating the Horseplayer when it comes to takeout and price sensitivity. There has been an awakening of sort, as we've seen tracks that have lowered their takeout and haven't upped their signal fees actually shown increase in handle, even though handle continues to fall overall (thanks mainly to increased signal fees, and increased takeout in California).

There have been enough bettors who have stopped playing California (and even some who recently quit playing Turf Paradise as they too raised takeout rates) and have diverted those betting dollars to more Horseplayer friendly venues.

This minor betting revolt has turned out to be good news for tracks like Woodbine, Hastings, and Zia Park.

Churchill handle dropped a bit, and this is most likely due to higher signal fees and the fact that their signal isn't available at all ADWs.

Again, it is critical that tracks allow their current customers to last longer. Churn is synonymous with gambler satisfaction in most instances. Being able to last, keeping the Horseplayer in the game longer, gives the player more hope.

I can't state this enough: A player who lasts longer is more likely to expose others to the game. But for optimal growth, horse racing needs to produce visible long term winners, and in order for that to happen, it must either embrace rebates and/or lower takeout significantly.

However, because of the fact that tracks with lower takeout rates can get hurt by tracks with higher takeout rates, a little collusion is in order. I don't think it is unreasonable for the entire industry to get together and place a cap on takeout with long term growth in mind.

I think the 17-20-22 plan makes sense for starter. That is a 17% cap on WPS, a 20% max on exactors and doubles, and a 22% cap on all other exotics.

I know that those numbers are still too high, but it is a huge step in the right direction.

At this time, only Keeneland and Churchill Downs are within the prescribed limits. Charles Town recently dropped takeout is extremely close, falling short by .25% on WPS. There are quite a few other tracks that wouldn't have to make too many enemies with horsemen groups in order to satisfy my proposal.

The big problem in getting this to happen is herding the cats that run the racetracks. Who is going to do it?

BUY CANADIAN CAMPAIGN
Harness handle isn't off that much this year. Low signal fees, enabling larger rebates, have kept them close to status quo. Standardbred Canada is trying to up handle by year end by linking to free past performances and giving selections on a new web page. Check it out.

Harness fans, don't forget about the USTA Strategic Wagering page which offer free TrackMaster past performances for guaranteed pool sequences. Good stuff!

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Horse Racing Missed Out Big Time: Is It Too Late?

I watched CNN yesterday morning, and caught a story about the Full Tilt Poker disaster. I know the story is all about the problems facing Full Tilt players who have balances with the suspended company, however one bit of info resonated with me in a large way: 8% of US players make a living playing poker. And that 8% represents 35,000 players. Quick math, and you wind up with almost 4.4 million online poker players.

Here is the clip:


In horse racing there is no discussion, no figures, no studies on how many people make a living at the game. The old line is that 2% of Horseplayers beat the game long term(and this line goes back to the 1960's when collective takeout was much lower and there was oodles of dummy money in the pools).

Nowadays, 2% would be way way way too high, and the industry knows it. The industry also knows that the only long term winners are those who get rebates (and yet there are numbskull racetrack execs who state that rebates are bad for the game).

Horse racing is stuck when it comes to marketing. They can't market the game as a way to make a living, like poker can (even though poker doesn't actually go out and say it, word of mouth and the internet is all poker needs).

I believe that even if the amount of long term winners in horse racing was 2.5% or so, racing would be flourishing, and newbies would be attracted in large quantities. Horse racing has the extra hurdle in that the learning curve is much steeper than poker's learning curve. However, I also believe that horse racing would have much more broader appeal if the game was perceived as beatable.

Horse racing handle doesn't grow despite The Secretariat Movie, Zenyatta, exposure on a multitude of TV shows, and even prohibition on US poker players. There is something wrong. Just like with US congress these days, the system is broken. Even if you throw the bums on the street (the high end racing execs), the system is still broken. The system needs a complete overhaul, and racetracks need restraining orders from the racing execs and horsemen groups who believe that growth is getting a higher bigger piece of a shrinking pie.

And to the horse racing execs who believe rebates are a bad thing, THINK!!!!

Even if a $50 a day bettor gets an extra $2 or $3 bucks the next day, that player is still in the game one day more than he or she would have in many cases. The longer they are in the game, the more likely they are to keep horse racing in their head and the more likely they are to expose others to horse racing (friends, sons, daughters, coworkers, etc.).

However, horse racing execs and racing jurisdictions do almost everything possible to knock these people out of the game.

First, you have States that make it impossible to rebate because they charge a fee on every bet made within the State. Some as high as 10%.

Then you have some tracks and signal distribution companies that limit content, some tied in with ADWs, (so they attempt to limit the content of competing ADWS). If a track isn't available at a Horseplayers favorite ADW, the result is that it sours racing's every day customers. Sure, some may come over to the ADW with more content, but the result is racing ends up losing more aggregate customers in the long term.

And then there is Texas, who has written into law that internet horse race betting is amongst Texas residents is now illegal. At first I thought the horsemen groups were stupid enough to think it would bring more people to the track (and they would get more money from it in theory...in actuality, it will kill horse racing in Texas as Horseplayers will become less and less interested, and follow less even if they were used to going to the track a few days a week, the fact it is now illegal to wager when they can't make it to the track will cause them to just give up...the same thing happened in Arizona 4 years ago. HINT Yavapai is bankrupt and for sale). It turns out that the one to blame is probably Presidential candidate Rick Perry. When horse racing is dead in Texas within the next five years, try to remember his name.

Texas has 8% of the US population. Sure, part of the population is very religious, but there are many gamblers in Texas too. And tracks are sporadic. Nationwide handle could drop 5-6% thanks to the new law.

And now you have Kentucky looking to charge ADW customers an extra fee for bets made by Kentucky residents. This will result in lower rebates for all Kentucky residents which will hurt handle even more.

So racing is chasing away Horseplayers who already know its a bad bet to begin with. Tremendous logic. And the ones with all the power are the ones who are looking to get a bigger slice from a shrinking pie.

REALITY: ADWs and rebates (as long as takeout rates remain above 12%), and exchange wagering represent racing's only chance at growth going forward. We need visible winners to attract poker players and other potential young gamblers. Horse racing needs to understand and embrace this fact. But racing seems bent on increasing the cost to the rebated player while also limiting distribution.


EQUINOMETRY (Horse Racing For Intelligent Horseplayers) has some great posts about takeout and handle.

There is even a post about the growth of handle in Fort Erie's Pick 4 pool thanks to a reduced track takeout.


Jen Morrison is rightfully pissed at the lack of transparency in horse racing when it comes to information available to the betting public. Her focus was the complete form reversal by Flip Of The Coin last week at Woodbine.


For Canadian TV viewers, there is documentary on OMNITV Friday morning at 9 EST called For The Love Of Horses. It is all about the Attard family. I missed it on Sunday because Sunday is my horse racing break night (Animation Domination, yeah baby!!!!....that and I haven't figured out how to record on Blue Ray yet).


One more thing. Back to Full Tilt Poker and their "not a Ponzi scheme plea." Sorry, but the funds were not segregated (they weren't required to be segregated but that is besides the point), and at the time the plug was pulled, there was not nearly enough cash to pay the customers, yet the owners were pulling funds out that really represented possible future profits...uh, I'm going with Ponzi scheme. They are not a bank that has enough cash on hand to meet daily withdrawals with the rest invested more or less, but they acted like a bank without the collateral.

In the gambling world, that is no no. ADWs based in Oregon, for example, must segregate gambling funds. That is the way it should be. Too bad that isn't enough (nor should it be) to attract poker players to horse racing....again, VISIBLE WINNERS, VISIBLE WINNERS, VISIBLE WINNERS....

15 Million Young Viewers Get Exposed To Horse Racing: No Bettors Created

A week last Thursday I watched on of my favorite show The Big Bang Theory. The show gets around 15 million viewers a week on the first run episodes. Mostly young viewers too. At 50 I'm still counted in the 25-54 crowd:)

Leonard, one of the main characters was shown playing an interactive video horse racing game:

Exposure like this would actually create more players....if it was poker instead of horse racing.
Too bad horse racing is known to be unbeatable (thanks to mindlessly high takeouts which makes the prospect of being a long term winner impossible unless one is receiving decent rebates...and still it is near impossible in that case).

Instead, this free advertising for horse racing will most likely only create more sales for the Kinect Xbox 360 Bundle and the Champion Jockey game that Leonard was playing.

I am seriously thinking of getting one myself (I'll probably wait until Boxing Day). Looks like a way I can get into exercising. And outside of forking over around $400, there is no track takeout. I can see my actual handle dropping off if I make the purchase as it looks like so much fun it might cut into my handicapping time.

Movies like Secretariat, the fan base created during Zenyatta's quest, and the new comedy movie (And They're Off) about a down and out trainer, and the upcoming HBO series Luck are wasted because there are no visible winners who beat the races long term.

Great to Caroline Betts get a seat at the table at the upcoming Race Track Industry Program Symposium in Arizona early next month. She will be giving the facts on optimum takeout.

I still don't get why Arizona is the meeting place. You can't even bet over the internet in that state. I know the weather is probably good, but why not a racing friendly state in the south instead?

Free Stuff For The Breeders' Cup

Do you want free Breeders' Cup past performances?, simple, go to the Breeders' Cup website (bottom middle) and download Friday and/or Saturday's card.

For just about everything else free, go to About Horse Racing's Breeders' Cup page and you can link to videos of prep races, news coverage, handicapping info, and much more.

You can also check out Breeders' Cup Youtube page.
There is even a video about Chantal Sutherland who rides Game On Dude in the Classic (as she tries to become the first woman jockey to win that event). She is considering Playboy (as long as it is tasteful...personally, I've never seen a Playboy spread that wasn't tasteful):

She better hurry up and do Playboy as she is getting up there in age:)

Free past performances are very important to an industry that is plummeting while trying to keep old customers, and attract new ones.

Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance has a free past performance feed that picks up around a third of all the races in the USA and Woodbine.

Many harness tracks in Canada have free past performances: Flamboro Downs, Fraser Downs, Georgian Downs, Kawartha Downs, Mohawk/Woodbine, Rideau Carleton, Western Fair, and Windsor Raceway.

Another decent initiative is one called USTA Strategic Wagering. Partnered up with TrackMaster, free past performances for specific guaranteed pools each day are available.

And for my Breeders' Cup Classic pick, I am going with So You (Never Been On The Dirt Before) Think on top of Stay Thirsty, Prayer For Relief, and Ruler On Ice. I can't see Uncle Mo at all. First, the mile and a quarter seems way too far for him, and secondly, there is too much early pace. I can see him packing it in and finishing in the bottom third very easily.

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Horse Racing Needs Rats To Help Clean The Game Up

Former backstretch employee T.Y. Faulkner wrote a piece on The Paulick Report, A Bounty For Cheaters, that seems to have struck a nerve (judging by many of the comments).

He pretty much sums up his proposal in one paragraph:

"The racing organizations should step up with some serious monies to "bait" this information from within the backside. I would like to see posters offering $10,000 or more for information that leads to catching cheats. This information would have to be represented to the authorities and the bounty paid only if and when we could identify by testing the substances being used. Someone held that horse for the injection or saw a veterinarian in the barn in the middle of the night."

As I pointed out in the comment section, his idea has already been implemented in Ontario:

Horse Racing Community partners with Crime Stoppers

Call 1-800-222-TIPS to anonymously report information on any crime

In order to maintain the honesty and integrity of horse racing, the Ontario Racing Commission (ORC) maintains an official partnership agreement with Crime Stoppers. Crime Stoppers is a not-for profit community-based charitable program involving the co-operative efforts of the community, the media and the police in the fight against crime.

With the financial support of the industry-funded ORCEquine Medication Control and Drug Task Force, there is now a program in place to give Ontario’s horse racing community an anonymous, confidential way to report any illegal activity related to horse racing.

With the Crime Stoppers program, Called ID is never in place, callers are never asked to identify themselves, nor will they ever be asked to testify or be named. Cash rewards are offered to people who call the program and their information assists in an investigation.

By far the majority of people who work in horse racing are honest, dedicated professionals who care about the horse and play by the rules. If you witness or know of any illegal activity, don’t hesitate to take a stand. Report the activities anonymously. It’s your future. It’s your business.


Call Crime Stoppers 1-800-222-TIPS (1-800-222-8477)

This program began over 4 years ago. The obvious questions are How many cash rewards have been given out? How many suspensions has this initiative led to? and How reliable have the tipsters been?

Ontario might be one of the cleaner jurisdictions in North America, but there are still many horses that rebreak in the stretch (which to me is an indication of extra oxygen...I could be wrong, but on polytrack, I doubt I am wrong more times than not).

The biggest problem with Faulkner's idea and the ORC initiative is that there needs to be a huge fine and huge suspension associated with getting caught. What is the point if the trainer gets a slap on the wrist?, as is the case in most instances that are made public.

Disgruntled ex employees (grooms and hotwalkers etc.) may not be the most reliable source, especially if the reward is too high. But I don't see the harm in at least trying snitch programs at every track to see where it leads.

It would be great if ex trainers or ex vets had the balls to "rat out" the industry, but there seems to be some sort of mafioso club type of connection backstretch people have whether they are in the game still or out of the game. And when someone finally does talk they get slammed by their former coworkers (remember when Shane Sellers admitted to using buzzers?).

Dutrow may be a scapegoat, hopefully not. Hopefully severe fines and suspensions will become more persistent, and finally become a deterrent to the obvious cheating that is going on in horse racing.

Personally, I get turned off handicapping races and sometimes it prevents me from handicapping full cards, when I see super trainers in the race or races. They definitely do not help the game in any way shape or form. And of course, it isn't just the super trainers who cheat, but the super trainers seem to have their Teflon ways about them.

ITPP News
ITPP Research Receives Funding From PHHA

Researchers have found that mice with damaged hearts increased exercise levels by 35 per cent when given the drug orally, and 60 per cent when it was injected in the abdomen.

Hong Kong Has ITPP Test

One of the Group One Winners at the Moonee Valley meet in Australia tested positive for arsenic (one of the ingredients in ITPP)


Hanging On By A Thread
Fort Erie announced that they have applied for less dates and a shorter season next year. They intend to race 69 days, down from 78 this year.

Interesting observation:
...the track was successful in accomplishing their goal of attracting new customers with their twilight races and live music, but over the same time period, they lost many of their older, more dedicated attendees, mostly attributed to the poor economy and weak US dollar which kept many Americans on their side of the border.

I'm not sure that I buy into the excuses given. It doesn't make sense that they could attract new customers if the reasons given for losing the older customers is correct. Older customers are dying out, more people are playing online, and as for the economy I don't see people buying less lottery tickets, and as for not attracting Americans to cross the border, that is old news, long before the Consortium took over.

If they are in fact attracting new customers, it won't last too long as a 26% takeout on exactors and doubles wipe them out very quickly and take away incentive to come back.

Handle at Fort Erie this year has been abysmal. The only bet that seems to be doing well is the Pick 4 (they reduced the takeout on that bet to 14% this year).

Horse racing is in decline when it should be flourishing, but it all starts with takeout. The money returned to bettors is too low and non competitive with other forms of gambling.


Woodbine Attempts To Optimize Dates:
Woodbine is looking to dump low handle Thursdays during the summer and extend the season, so the race dates remain the same.

Great thinking on their part. Now how about optimizing takeout? Handle has been crappy lately there. Big purses, yet we still see plenty of 6 horse fields, and way too much dominance by certain outfits and jockeys. At least I can't say that super jockeys are cheating....Luis Contreras seems to be in a league of his own, but I doubt he is using ITPP or snail venom:) He just outfinesses the rest of the colony it seems.

Should Northern Dancer Have An Asterisk Next To His Name?

A couple of nights ago I watched a show called The Canadians. The topic was Northern Dancer. This episode was done a few years prior to the Biography Channel Northern Dancer show, though many of the clips were the same.

Lots of recollection by those who were there, but one of the guests intrigued me enough to do a Google Search. It was Alex Harthill, Northern Dancer's Kentucky Derby vet.

What I found was new to me, or at least this is the first time I acknowledged it, if I in fact read it before. It is a story dated back 9 years ago (Harthill wasn't pushing up daisies yet):

My interest in Harthill, never dormant, was ignited again in 2001 by a remarkable interview that he gave Jay Hovdey of the Daily Racing Form. Harthill teased those of us who have been interested in his career by admitting that, before the 1964 Derby, he gave Northern Dancer a then-illegal, anti-bleeding medication known as Lasix (now used by an estimated 95 percent of the horses in training).

"Security was following me, though," Harthill told Hovdey, "so I got a vet I know from out of town to come along with me. I told him I was going to turn to the right, and he would go that way and take this little syringe down to Barn 24, stall 23, and give this to that horse. There would be a guy there named Will. He’d be waiting. So he did it, while the gendarmes followed me. They were following the mystique."

And the mystique helped Northern Dancer hold off Hill Rise’s challenge by a nose in one of the most exciting stretch runs in Derby history.

Now, read the whole article. I'll wait.

That was worth reading, wasn't it? But it really begs at least a couple of questions. Assuming Hill Rise wasn't treated with illegal (at the time) drugs, how can one not look at Northern Dancer's Kentucky Derby as anything but tainted? Then when you take the Dancer's Image fiasco into account, how did Dr. Harthill remain a prestigious vet at the world capital of horse racing, even after doing the Hovdey interview?

Being Canadian, and also being born the same year as the Dancer, I hate the idea of ruining Northern Dancer's reputation, but if this story is true, and it sure sounds true, I have no choice.

As for the second question. That one is easy too. Dr. Harthill's of the world are in high demand. In Harthill's own words:

"Everything (drugs) went through a transition period of being detected. The thing everyone wanted to find out was what didn’t show at the time. It was just part of the game, ever since I can remember. Everybody was looking for an edge. I don’t care who it was. A trainer would say, ‘Don’t get me caught, but keep me worried.’"

It seems that nothing much has changed since Northern Dancer, except more drugs are legal and more drugs are tested for. There is still the quest to get an edge that seems to motivate (the majority?) of trainers out there.

With EPO, DPO, snake and snail venom and their knockoffs, ITPP, and whatever else is still "illegal" but not tested for, the edge is always very tempting, and some trainers can pull the charade off over and over again without a blemish.

Some can't get the formulas right though. That might be what happened with Dutrow.

How many other super horses won big races thanks to trainers and vets "experimenting" with drugs that weren't being tested for? I have a feeling that the answer is lots.

Here is the 2005 DRF obit for Harthill.

As for Dutrow, it will be interesting if the industry now sighs "OK witch hunt is over, we gave the public what they wanted," or the time has come to clean up the game. It will be equally interesting if other jurisdictions honor the ban. California has climbed aboard. Good for them (who says I don't say anything good about California racing?)


A COUPLE OF STORIES YOU MIGHT NOT SEE AT THE PAULICK REPORT
10% Takeout On WPS????? No Way! Yes Way!!!!! No Way!!!!!!!!!!!
Northlands Park harness racing's 2011 Fall Meet kicks off today and they have decided to lower the takeout on Win Place and Show bets to 10%. This is phenomenal news, and I hope it works out fantastic for them.
EDITORS NOTE: Looks like I fell for something that was nothing short of a deceptive article and promotion. The association takeout is 10%, but the Alberta tax is 5% and there is a levy of .8%. Total takeout is 15.8%. Nothing has changed. Incidentally, Northlands takeout on other bets is a whopping 24.8% (exactors and doubles included).

It Appears That Tracknet Was Dissolved In Name Only
And HANA is on the case.

It is definitely horrible for the growth of the game when dominating companies like Magna or Churchill even think this way. The leaders of this industry should be focused on growing the Horseplayer base not chasing it away, unless they have given up hope that growth can be had. I believe it can, but it is going to take a lot of tracks getting together and focus on a longer than a year or two plan.

Where Is The Bottom?

Handle dropped again in September. I don't need to go over the reasons why again, simply click here and read my post after August's numbers came out.

September's numbers were very ugly: Wagering was down 6.3% despite 3.3% more race dates. For the year wagering is down 7.6% and race dates are down 5.2%.

Interesting that total purses were up slightly over a half a percentage. Purse money doesn't motivate bettors very much. And the purse money would have been down if not for the artificial increase in California and the win fall in Illinois.

Speaking of California. There is now fallout from the stunned deal the racetracks made at the beginning of the year which gave the horsemen a bigger cut of the proceeds from betting and at the same time, increasing the takeout, assuring that tracks would have much less revenue bottom line. The ax is flying, and it is estimated that 100 jobs will be lost at Santa Anita.

Less workers at the track will inevitably mean less customer service and marketing....should kill racing there even quicker than before. I wonder if California horsemen are getting it yet.

Hastings, despite horrible weather early in the year, made a nice recovery and bucked the trend with a 4% handle increase this year. They dropped takeout on quite a few wagers before the meet started, and they finished very strong, which is predictable when lowering takeout....it doesn't happen overnight, but usually takes a half a year minimum for the real effects to start showing.

Last year, when doing nothing but staring in the headlights, handle at Hastings was off around 25%.