26 October 2007

Breeder's Cup and NFL Picks

The Juvenile Filly race has longshot written all over it. I'm going to go with Grace Anatomy despite a bad post. She made one of those neat middle moves last time and will probably run a peak performance this time out. The question is, will her peak performance be good enough?

Favourite War Pass is the horse to beat in the boy's Juvenile. And when I come up with a favourite, that horse must look pretty good.

Wait A Minute may just do the trick in the Filly and Mare Turf. She should be 1-2-3 at least. I can't believe that a filly can go 7 for 7 (Nashoba's Key). She is due to bounce big time:) Edited 10:15 AM Oct. 27th: Wait A Minute is scratched. I'm now going with All My Loving because I'm still a Beatles fan.

I'm going out on a limb in the Sprint. I like Forefathers. Nothing wrong with him at the distance, and his current speed is as good as anything in the field. I don't like layoff horses in general, and especially in the Breeder's Cup, and it seems that the top figure horses haven't been out since September 1st in this event. But if a layoff (more than 30 days away) wins, the sprint is the most likely event for that to take place.

In the Cup Mile I'm going with Jeremy. I don't follow Europe racing at all, but something really caught my eye with Jeremy. On June 19 both he and Excellent Art (the program fave) both ran a mile at Ascot in separate events. Both won, but Jeremy's time was a full 2 seconds faster. I'm sure there was some sort of explanation, because when they hooked up August 1st, Excellent Art finished 2 lengths of Jeremy and was even more heavily bet than Jeremy. But that 2 second differential has me going with Jeremy tomorrow.

Stronach has a great chance in the Filly Distaff with Ginger Punch. Again, she looks like she is rounding into a peak race as she gave it up late last time.

In the Breeder's Cup Turf I'm going with Dylan Thomas the favorite. 2:28:2 going about 1 mile and a half in France just has to be a tough time to beat.

I had to flip a coin between Street Sense and Curlin. Street Sense won the coin toss at least, he is my pick. Lawyer Ron has the numbers, but at 0 for 3 at the distance, I have to pass on him.

Bonus pick: If you are awake at 11 in the morning, put a couple of bucks on Stunt Man in the first at Monmouth. Edited 10:15 AM Oct. 27th: Stunt Man is scratched. Go back to bed.

Still no decision concerning Fort Erie. Apparently the government has made an offer of some sort, but it has to meet the approval of Nordic. So it obviously isn't the $7 million originally being asked for. Again, I can't see how the government can give Nordic one thin dime, but I can see the government helping out the horsemen's purse account. The thing is that since Nordic has to approve the government's offering, I can't see them letting the horsemen have anything substantial. They argue that it costs them money to race, so they don't want more days, they don't even want the same amount of days as this year.
Let me make something clear, when I say Nordic, I am not talking management, I am talking Nordic the owner of the race track.
Nordic needs to go. If you can't even break even running a race track, do everyone a favor and sell the joint.
Putting things in perspective: horses will be running for purses in the last 3 Breeder's Cup races tomorrow pretty much equal to what horses ran for this entire year in 80 plus racing days at Fort Erie, but those 80 days keep food on the table for thousands of track employees.
Speaking of Fort Erie, last night was their annual awards dinner. I attended it. There is a family atmosphere amongst the horsemen at Fort Erie, they all seem to know each other and care about each other.
Horse of the year of course was the "Freak From Fort Erie," Frezacon. Mark Fournier was voted outstanding trainer by his peers, and he deserved it big time. A bit of a surprise was the winner of outstanding jockey as voted by their peers. It went to Regina Sealock. She has probably had more broken bones than anyone in the Fort Erie jocks room, yet even in her early 40's, she keeps getting back on the horse. She did have an excellent year getting the most from her mounts She is rarely on the favorite, so even seconds and thirds were accomplishments many times, and I don't think there is any jockey on the grounds better than her going two turns.


I'm officially worse than a coin flipper as I've now fallen to 9-10-2 on the year.

This week I like Tampa Bay minus 3 and a half, Denver minus 3, and St. Louis plus 3.


Anonymous said...

I was looking at HPIBet, but the new 10 cent superfectas weren't offerred for Breeders' Cup wagering. Did you hear anything about this Cangamble?

Anonymous said...

No, I didn't look into that and I didn't look to see if the price payouts are different for some types of wagers either.
At this time, a lot of tracks that offer 20 cent supers for example for their home market but it is not available for someone betting at a different hub. I'm sure eventually, that will change so that everyone is on an equal playing field.