21 June 2008

The 2008 Queen's Plate Prediction: How About A Hail Mary?

Last year I picked Marchfield. I was wrong, but two years ago I picked Edenwold (I even picked the exactor). Emile Ramsammy rode the horse to victory from the inside post. Could tomorrow by D. Flutie's day to shine? Actually D. Flutie did have his day in the sun. Remember this?

I like the way the maiden D. Flutie is progressing. He seems to have good tactical speed and endurance. He has been progressively building stamina each and every race and he has the shortest distance to cover (in theory). The one post may actually help his chances. The one thing I don't like about him is that he seems to hang a bit. I thought that trainer Michael Keogh would put blinkers on for this race, but what do I know?
He made a great middle move last time and totally ran against the bias. The speed figure he earned prior to that race puts him a length behind the two favourites, Not Bourbon and Solitaire.

Now a quick analysis of the field:

1. D. Flutie (ON), 126, Emile Ramsammy
Lets hope he stays on the rail, doesn't get in much traffic, and that there is no outside bias or that there is a rail bias. He is worth the odds.

2. Dylan's Choice (ON), 126, Chantal Sutherland
His former trainer stole in an $8000 maiden claimer at Tampa this year. I'm not much for trainer's stealing at the expense of the owner. The trainer blew the horses maiden condition for chump change (He could have easily won a maiden special up here which has a purse of over 60k) and also risked losing what looks like to be a very nice horse (though the risk was minimal). His last race was good, but he is still 5 or 6 lengths inferior to the top horses in this race. I'm sure Ms. Sutherland will get the most out of him in the Plate.

3. East End Tap (ON), 126, Tyler Pizarro
Ran with the bias last time and went backwards. He probably needed the race, but he is a pretender in the Plate.

4. Harvest Home (ON), 126, Corey Fraser
A maiden, who hasn't been 1,2,3 in three starts. Sam-Son horses usually show their real stuff in their third or fourth lifetime races. This one looks like a plodder, but his second last speed number is good enough to contend. Last race was not impressive though.

5. Deputiformer (ON), 126, Jerry Baird
Looks like he can run all day. Though not fast enough for these today. The 35 days off between races will make it near impossible for him to hit the superfecta ticket.

6. Silver Jag (ON), 126, Slade Callaghan
I expected a lot more from him last time in a top notch maiden race on Plate Trial day. He had a bit of a middle move, but flattened out badly in the stretch. The race before was excellent. I don't see him handling the mile and a quarter tomorrow.

7. Palmers (ON), 126, Patrick Husbands
Trainer Mark Casse disappointed last year with Marchfield, and his barn is struggling somewhat this year. No hype for this one though. 15-1 in the morning line is a pretty juicy price. He is progressively getting better with each and every start. Just a few lengths away from the top rated horses in the race, he has excellent late pace and he could pull of the upset here.

8. Mamma's Knight (ON), 126, Justin Stein
His last race was impressive, that is if you don't take times into consideration. He beat up on a very weak Ontario sired field in his latest and he is at least 10 lengths inferior to the top 6 or 7 in this crowd. Another pretender.

9. Shadowless (ON), 126, Emma-Jayne Wilson
Finished behind Palmers last time. Looks like he'll be going to the lead or close to it. He'll make it difficult on Not For Bourbon, but I expect this one to stagger through the last quarter mile at least.

10. Ginger Brew (ON), 121, Javier Castellano
Impressive in the Oaks, her final speed figure wasn't all that great. Brian Lynch horses seem to run their best off 30-60 day layoffs, and this filly has only run two races in a month once (28 days apart). For a filly to come back in two weeks off a top effort in today's world of body draining drugs, and expect her to even top that effort, is asking way too much.

11. Jungle Brew (ON), 126, Eibar Coa James McAleney
Last race was really good. To do what he did off of just one 6 furlong race was pretty remarkable. Still a maiden, this is his third lifetime start. I just see a bounce written all over this one. And what is wrong with Frank Stronach? Jimmy Mac, Woodbine's current leading rider will be watching the Plate in the jocks room while Stronach has imported a foreign rider for Canada's most important race of the year.
Update: Coa got injured yesterday, so Stronach has found it in his heart to use local jockey Jimmy Mac.

12. Solitaire (ON), 126, Robert C. Landry
Another maiden, but this one looks special. He ran against the bias last, and closed very well into a race that had a slow early pace. He was probably the best horse in the Plate Trial and unlike Jungle Brew, I don't see a bounce here. The thing that bugs me about this one is that he is out of a Great Gladiator mare. Not the best recipe for a mile and quarter. His numbers put him right in the hunt.

13. Not Bourbon (ON), 126, Jono C. Jones
I was amazed that he could go a mile and an eighth, but he isn't going a mile and a quarter. 8 of his 9 lifetime races have been sprints, and all but two of those were less than 6 furlongs. He actually had an excellent trip in the Trial, though ran on the outside when the track had a strong rail bias. I'll make a bold prediction: don't use him in your superfecta ticket. Sebastian's Song and Shadowless will make it very difficult for him on Plate day.

14. Sebastian's Song (ON), 126, David Clark
Has no choice but to send. He made a real nice middle move last time in the Plate Trial while running against the bias, and it was a step in the right direction. I just see him faltering again in the stretch, though he might place ahead of Not Bourbon this time out and hang in for a piece.

15. Took the Time (ON), 126, Ramon A. Dominguez
The other Casse horse in the race. This one has 35 days off and looks more like a 7 furlong to mile and a sixteenth horse. The 15 post will definitely hurt his chances, which aren't too good to begin with. I'm a fan of his sire Greenwood Lake though. He is underrated and his offspring seem to like the Polytrack.

D. Flutie

More Notes

I realize a lot of people will be reading this blog today and tomorrow while doing Google searches, so I don't want to look like I'm promoting Woodbine in any way whatsoever.

Just realize that Woodbine does not give a rats ass about their customer. If you don't believe me, just check out their track takeout. It is amongst the highest in North America:

Woodbine Takeout Information

Win, place, and show: 16.95%
Exactors and Daily Double: 20.5%
Pick 3 and Superfecta wagering: 26.3%
Triactor wagering: 28.3%
Win 4 wagering: 25%
Pick 7: 26.3%

And very little goes to taxes. So that is not the excuse.

Compared to Keeneland which has the lowest average collective takeout in North America:

Keeneland Takeout Information

Win, place, and show: 16%
Pick 3, 4 and 6: 17%
All other wagers: 19%

In other, don't bet too much on their product. WEG is a rip off organization. If you just want to bet flat, it will probably do you just as well (especially in the long run) to open a Betfair account (not sure if the Plate is on the menu tomorrow) Takeout on Betfair is around 2% on average.

CAW Strike Makes Going To The Queen's Plate Pretty Worthless

Even though patrons will be allowed to park at the Woodbine Centre across from the track, I'm not sure that is such a great idea because it isn't the safest place to park, and it is a good 5 to 7 minute walk from the track.
I'm not a fan of the Canadian Communist Party, err, I mean the CAW. And they are just going to be more hated after tomorrow's planned BBQ at Woodbine.

Good Move By Woodbine

Looks like they upped the claiming price on non winners of two and three races to the $12,500 level. $10,000 was too cheap and it represented the exact same level for the highest claiming tag for conditioned horses at Fort Erie (the purse was much lower at the Fort).
This enables someone to claim a conditioned horse at Fort Erie for $10,000 and move them up to a more realistic level while the horse is in jail.
Of course, people are still hesitant when it comes to claiming an Ontario bred thanks to the absolutely stupid rule in place that eliminates that claimed horse from running for full purses in Ontario.
It has caused more private sales of Ontario bred horses....which makes one wonder, why they put this rule in place to begin with.
When is the impotent HBPA (Ontario Division) going to pull some weight and get this rule changed.

How About A Couple Of Bullets?
Probably one of the biggest hunch bet doubles of all time today at Woodbine: Perfect Bullet in the first race and Bulletonthewire (coming from that good Plate Trial day maiden race) in the second. Their numbers happen to be 1A in the first and 1 in the second. A BULLET DOUBLE; 1-1

UPDATE: I must have a reading comprehension problem. The horse in the second race was named BULLonthewire, not BULLETonthewire. At least I admit to mistakes. And the horse did not run impressively at all, just getting headed for second, while the winner (Grey Boundary) trounced.


Anonymous said...

Ginger Brew smashes this field. We're talking about a bunch of maidens here. I'm on her heavy.

Anonymous said...

She put in a great try. Good pick.