4 July 2008

Ontario Must Offer Sports Bettors Real Odds Or Forget About It

Legal Sportsbooks Being Considered By Ontario Government
This will definitely increase the traffic flow into border towns as it is highly unlikely the US will legalize sports betting for at least the next few years, if at all.

How much will it increase the flows? That is another question.
Take the average bettor in the US, he or she may call the bookie and place a wager, knowing that money isn't due up front. The other option is the internet, and yes despite the idiotic laws that exist in the US, an American still has many off-shore services willing to take his or her action.

But it just isn't the same as getting a ticket that you can cash the very same day when you bet offshore. Though most sophisticated gamblers have no problem with this idea, the majority of people like to bet and cash the same day, if they could.
What also comes with legalized sports betting is actual liability to the one taking the action. Though in the long run, the juice the house charges will all but guarantee a profit for the house, there could be short term situations where the house actually loses.

What if the Buffalo Bills go 12-4 against the spread? A sportsbook in Fort Erie is bound to show a tremendous loss on those games, and may or may not make up for it on other games.

The liability can be negated if the sportsbook took a parimutuel approach. For example, if the Buffalo Bills are 3 and a half point dogs against the Jets, and Ontario sportsbooks took $80,000 of action on the bills and $20,000 on the Jets, the cut could be taken out of the $100,000 bet ahead of time. In other words, $5,000 is taken out, so only $95,000 is distributed to winners. If Buffalo covered in this example, those taking the Bills would win around 18 cents for every dollar bet, but those taking the Jets would win $3.75 for every dollar bet.

Because these odds would be on the sportsbook walls, it is highly unlikely that such an extreme example would happen, and generally customers would be receiving 10 for 11 in most cases. In my example, big bettors would see the high odds on the Jets and bet them down, while those who like Buffalo will be turned off from wagering until they got odds that were closer to even money.

NOTE: It is very important that juice on individual games is at the most equal with the juice bookies take, or sportsbooks will be a failed experiment. But knowing the government, they sure like to rip off the customers (take Pro-Line odds, for example). US customers will just bet with bookies and Canadians will just keep on betting with bookies or Betfair.

And finally on this issue, will sports betting cannibalize horse racing even more. The tracks need to negotiate a much bigger cut than the 20% they are currently receiving from the OLG, because $2 bet on a horse race is much better to the tracks and horsemen than $2 bet on slots.

Bob McCown from the FAN 590 is interviewed regarding sports betting
He doesn't envision it the way Woodbine envisions it, that is for sure.


Who was that 10 pound bug boy without a whip on Touched By Madness in Woodbine's fourth race on Wednesday night? My form says that is was Todd Kabel, but there is no way Kabel rides like that, is there? Watch the race on HPI or Cal Racing (especially for the head on). If Touched By Madness had 120 pounds of dead weight strapped to his back, he would have won the race by at least 3 lengths.

Woodbine Track Bias Report: Speed still sucks at Woodbine. Sid Attard is on fire, while trainers Mike Doyle, Malcolm Pierce, and Dan Vella are cold.

Note to Renee Kierans: quit picking chalk every race on The Score. It is bad enough to have to see what Bannon picks. Seriously though, the public the public knows how to read the odds board, they want mid priced horses or long shots that have a chance.
There are times that the favourites look unbeatable and should be picked, but for sure this occurrence doesn't happen every race.
BTW, Renee Kierans and Elissa Blowe (HPI and Fort Erie) both offer tremendous insight, much more than Bannon and the rest, though I admire the fact that Jeff Bratt is always looking for long shots.
Kierans did an excellent interview Wednesday night with trainer Alex MacPherson. It was refreshing to see a trainer being so up front, while he elaborated on the specifics of why he felt Shenaigan crossed the wire on top after the fifth race.

Ellis Park Update

Ellis Park may not be closed after all. One thing is for sure, Peter Kyte won't be announcing there today or tomorrow. If racing resumes, it will happen by Wednesday at the earliest. It is good to see the horsemen's group have to cave. I just don't get who they think they are.

Magna Entertainment To Proceed With Reverse Stock Split. $10 is a lot further away from zero than 50 cents is. But when the dust clears, it is still the same crap just a different pile.
I guess I should add that the new price will allow Magna to trade on Nasdaq and make future financings more attainable.

Penn National terminates takeover deal

OK, You Wanted To Read The Sadinsky Report. What Do You Think HBPA?

No shock: The Ontario HBPA has remained silent on the Sadinsky Report. Even though the recommendations in the report would mean more bucks to the horsemen, it is Woodbine Entertainment Group first as usual for the Ontario division of the HBPA.

The reality is that the Sadinsky Report would be completely terrible for all track owners, which is not good for Ontario horsemen in the long run. But the smaller tracks are the ones who would hurt the most.


Anonymous said...

I always find Renee Kierans' picks amusing. She goes out of her way to take cheap shots at Mike Battaglia, yet she's always eating chalk as well.

Anonymous said...

Renee and Elissa should stop making picks immediately, it's an embarrassment. They know nothing about handicapping a horse race. They are better off telling us they like the horse because he's brown, than trying to give us any handicapping rationale.

Anonymous said...

Renee puts way too much weight on horses dropping down. I don't have a problem with Elissa's picks.

Anonymous said...

all of them are lost... renee won't pick horses from trainers she doesn't like, either. the times she probably does pick a long shot is when the favorite is from someone she hates.

their interviews are so redundant too. they ask the most obvious questions and also ask questions that have basically already been answered... there's no real thought process going on when they are interviewing people. its almost embarassing... you watch interviews from most of the US tracks and theyre so much more on the ball.

but then thats what happens when these companies hire people that don't actually qualify for the position... which is basically how all of WEG employees/management are likely selected. the less qualified you are, the more likely you'll get the job.

Anonymous said...

How about the HPItv commentators? I think they are better off with dead air.

Anonymous said...

If you need a license to handicap races on tv or hpi everyone on air would be working else where they do not qualify,only in Canada eh pity isn't it?

Anonymous said...

Anon 7:27, if you think you can do a better job, go apply.
It must be nerve racking to be on TV every day, or 5 days a week.
It isn't just about ability to pick races, it has a lot to do with being articulate and not nervous.
Both Renee and Elissa are very articulate.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Who's more stupid.the trainer that run's a horse with no shoe's or the steward's that allow this nonsence.race 9 today at Fort Erie racetrack the 4 horse went shoelesss for the 2nd week in a row.What is next? strapping a blue ballon to the horse's tail?

Anonymous said...

once the cameras go on your on tv inhouse or network tv or radio and you work in the industry. you are a public person. Were people you Guide AND bannon ect Do give picks that tend to be favs and ran 3td or last lol then laff about it joke and when u get some heat from FANS your in the pubic eye rember u have too be able too shrug it off and be that pro!!! shes a pro whos time now may have come as for Elissa is very stong on the mic in house at fort and tv but tuff skin is a must Jeff Packer aka Hollywood