11 July 2008

Prince Of Wales Analysis And A Jockey Betting Scandal In Manitoba

After my pick got trounced in the Queen's Plate, and the fact that I dissed Not Bourbon not just in the Plate, but also the Plate Trial, I am going to have to make selections here with my tail tucked between my legs. I also want to give fair warning that there might be a few Cangamble sightings at Fort Erie on Sunday.

1. Deputiformer: Made a nice middle move in the Plate. Trainer Mike DePaulo is having a very good year so far. This one is a consistent type speed figure wise, but I don't think he is good enough to win on Sunday.

2. Pronger: If you want the rush of backing the horse who will be on the lead going into the backstretch, Pronger is for you. But when the real running starts, he'll back away faster than my cat when he "accidentally" scratches my foot.

3. Took The Time: This is my longshot special. He raced in the Plate off a 5 week layoff while having the 14 hole, and a very weird wide trip. His second last race was against older horses and he ran very well while getting a half decent speed figure.

4. Harlem Rocker: Probably the best horse in the race. I think he might just come up short here because of a 6 week layoff, and I didn't like the way he was running up and down in the Plate Trial. I don't buy the Polytrack excuse....just yet.

5. East End Tap: Elvis is in the building. He is getting better each race. Made a move in the Plate only to flatten out a bit. Worth throwing in your exotic tickets.

6. Pewter: May press Pronger into the first turn. Off since the Plate Trial, it looks like he would need Divine Intervention in order to finish in the top three.

7. Not Bourbon: What a bum:) OK, I've been wrong twice in a row. I just have to think that he has peaked, though this looks like an easier race than the Plate despite Harlem Rocker's presence. Horses aren't machines (especially when they are trained so hard), and he was on his wrong lead when he hit the wire in the Plate. The show doesn't have to go on.

8. Sebastian's Song: Bad post in the Plate, he still ran disappointingly. Is the home team horse. He could hit the exotics tickets if he overcomes the outside post and runs back to his race in the Plate Trial.

Selections: 3-4-7-5 Don't tell me they didn't make this race a Superfecta?

Free Past Performance For Curlin's Turf Debut H/T Equidaily I really don't like Curlin for this distance on the lawn just be looking at his breeding. I'm going with Mission Approved onto Red Rocks.

H/T to Pull The Pocket for finding out that Woodbine has launched a new blog.
Columnists include Chris Conner, Chris Hickey, Ellisa Blowe, Greg Blanchard, Jeff Bratt, Ken Middleton, Mike Hamilton, and Renee Kierans.
I wonder what there comment policy will be after I post (or try to post) a few:)
So far Renee Kierans posted a very controversial piece "In Defense Of Jeremy Rose." Jeff Bratt also goes against the grain by questioning the policy of automatically giving the bettor the race time favourite when scratches occur in Pick 3's and Win 4's. He also questions the stewards process and the fact they seem to look at Inquiries before they decide to put up the Inquiry sign.
I just have a feeling that the columnists will not be very controversial from here on in. The powers that be do not like controversy.
Speaking of controversy, I'll bring something up here. Eight columnists and eight "white people." For a city as culturally diverse as Toronto, what are the odds? But then again, look at the Board of Directors for Woodbine Entertainment. The KKK would be proud:)


Too Early For Fort Erie To Break Out The Henkel Trocken (they'll never be back to the champagne days, this is as good as it gets):
It seems that the Buffalo Casino has hit a major speed bump. On Tuesday "Federal Judge William Skretny has ruled the nine acres of land owned by the Senecas in downtown Buffalo is indeed sovereign land but he also struck down the federal government's ruling that allows full scale gaming on the land." The recently purchased land intended for the full scale casino isn't deemed to be sovereign land according to the judge.
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I just don't get how Indians can buy land and then call it sovereign land. Even the land the temporary casino is on right now shouldn't be considered sovereign land, but the judge disagrees me about that.

Churchill Downs Handle Reportedly Off 11.5%
Meanwhile every form of gambling other than horse racing is going up up up. The broken model of high takeouts needs to change, or expect the trend to continue.

Youbet restates 2007 loss. They found they lost another million. Peanuts when you lose around $28 million.

H/T to Jen Morrison for reporting on the alleged race fixing at Assiniboia Downs: Downs Riders Under Investigation For Illegal Wagers An exercise rider allegedly ran bets for jockeys at Assiniboia Downs.
As Jen points out:
It's legal for a jockey in Canada to bet, but only on three conditions: 1)The bet must be on the jockey's own horse; 2)The bet must be to win; and 3) Only the owner or trainer of the horse can lay the bet for the jockey.


Simple Logic: Maybe Paul Wiecek needs to use some. Manitoba columnist says race fixing in Canada is just too impossible to happen, "here in Canada, where you cannot bet to lose, the only way you can be positive that your horse is going to win -- and remember, dead certainty is the key to any fix -- is if you have the complete cooperation of every rider in the race."
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In many races, there are two or three horses that stand out. And that is all. Theoretically you don't need that many jockeys in on the fix, and lets not forget the fact that the jockey colony on most circuits are a very tight group.

But the biggest contrary evidence to what Wiecek thinks is the fact that race fixing has been proved to have happened quite a few times in horse racing's history.

It is unknown if there was race fixing that went on at Assiniboia or how widespread it was, but to call it improbable is just foolish, especially with low purse structures, sometimes winning a bet could reward one with a much bigger pay check than winning a race does for a jockey.

Alleged race fixing examples:
7 jockeys were ruled off Tampa Bay Downs because of a suspect race at Great Lakes Downs. I'm not sure how that investigation is going or if it is done yet.

But how about what happened at Penn only 8 years ago:

JULY 10, 2001 HARRISBURG, Pennsylvania (AP)___ Four jockeys have been sentenced for fixing horse races at Penn National Race Course, with one receiving a six-month prison term. The jockeys - Ramon Pena, Lazaro Vives, Luis Morales and Andres Reyes - pledged on Monday to one count each of fixing or attempting to fix a sporting event.

Pena, who prosecutors said was more involved in the scheme to fix races at the track, received a six-month prison sentence.

The other three were sentenced to one year probation and issued fines from $800 to 1,500. Horse owners George Berryhill of Lebanon and Neil McElwee of Harrisburg and another jockey are awaiting sentencing.

Authorities said the owners funneled bribes to jockeys to hold back favored horses in 15 races last year so that longshots would win.

33 comments:

railbirdbrad said...

Great,W E G has a blog,I spend most of the time muting these guys when they are on the air the air ,I would'nt waste two seconds to scan there opinion's on anything thank you very much.Oh and that include's the ladie's aswell.

Anonymous said...

You sound like a Racist!

Cangamble said...

Anon, how do I sound racist? Because I noticed that WEG's organization is whiter than Casper the Friendly Ghost?
I'm being critical of it actually. The organization has always been run by and run for the monocle and top hat Old Boys Club of Canada, from well before even the EP Taylor days.

Anonymous said...

What does it matter what color the WEG's organization is?

Whenever I go over seas korea,China,etc...I don't whine that the people are 99.9% of a certain race.

Maybe I should take youe advice and bitch because there Is very little diversity In africa or Asia.

what do you think?

Cangamble said...

Is WEG's organization, especially the higher ups and TV personalities even close to the demographic makeup of either the city of Toronto or the fan/customer base?
If 50% of China's population was non Asian, I would expect that corporations had at least 25% non Asians representing it at higher levels and on TV.

Hey, but if Woodbine's client base is 90% white, I have no problem with the organization's demographics as is, sort of like how Fort Erie is.

Cangamble said...

Lets look at the demographics of Greater Toronto:
Visible Minorities in Toronto Metropolitan Area
Source: Stats Canada 2006 Toronto Community Profile: Visible Minorities Population %
Visible minority group South Asian 684,070
Chinese 486,330
Black 352,220
Filipino 171,980
West Asian 75,475
Arabs 53,430
Latin American 99,295
Southeast Asian 70,215
Korean 55,265
Japanese 19,010
Multiple minorities 60,075
Other minorities 46,705
Total visible minorities 2,174,070 42.9
Not a visible minority (including Aboriginal peoples) 2,898,005 57.1
Total population 5,072,075 100
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It is almost statistically impossible that none of WEGs TV Hosts and Board of Directors are a visible minority.

I'm pretty sure, because I took statistics in university:)

We wouldn't be having this discussion if Jason was still around:)

Anonymous said...

By your (Political correctness) theory we should break up the Basketball,Football and soccer leagues.

we should diversify every team to whatever the color of population the city is.Is that correct?

Also,Is a place like China racist for not having more diversity?

Another thought,I notice you don't have Italian or Greeks in your list of minorities of the great city of Toronto.Why is that?

Most of the time I can't visibly tell the difference between someone from Latin America,Greece,Italy or many other countries.

In the U.S the Basketball client base is 90% white.
Should the teams makeup represent the clients?

Cangamble said...

I got that from Wikipedia.
China is a Communist country, it is a place more people leave then enter, especially Westerners.
Your comparisons are out of whack. Sports players are all about skill. If a white is more skillful, he or she will make the team over a non white almost every day of the week.
But when it comes to heading up an organization, being on a Board of Directors, or being a TV talking head, it is pretty strange/telling that everyone involved with WEG is white, when 43% of the Toronto area is a visible minority (and it is higher if you include the people you brought up)
The organization has been dominated by nepotism since it was the OJC.
And the result is a bunch of crackers.
BTW, I'm not a visible minority. I'm just making a point.

Hey maybe if WEG hired a good looking Asian girl on TV she would help attract the Asian bettors.

Anonymous said...

Wouldn't surprise me one bit if anon here was some kind of WEG employee.

Anonymous said...

I'll ask again .How come an Italian or Greek is not a visible minority?

Why Is It liberals are so concerned about race?

If you don't print the N-word then don't print the word cracker.It's very offensive.

Thanks

Cangamble said...

I suggest that you ask whoever does the stats for demographics in Ontario why they don't consider Greeks or Italians to be visible minorities.
Cracker is offensive to you? LOL
BTW, I've voted Conservative in the Federal election since I can remember. I voted Liberal in the last Ontario election though because Johan Tory wanted to chuck the idea of separation of church and state aside on the school issue.

Again, I'm only stating fact. Lets even look at the ORC. And again, it is also an organization deeply rooted in OJC nepotism. Look at their last hiring.

Anonymous said...

where's Serge Leblanc on te W E G blog surely they could find a picture of a sesame street muppet for his photo,and use one of Jim Bannon's stupid theory's as an opinion for him so not to be left out of the club of Canadian racing's half wits.

Anonymous said...

As stated before,Jim Banon is horse racings biggest fraud.

Anonymous said...

Is it true they namd a pacer after Serge LeBlanc? Muppet Hanover.

Anonymous said...

It is almost statistically impossible that none of WEGs TV Hosts and Board of Directors are a visible minority.

Maybe Anon.is right.If there are Greeks or Italians on Board they should be counted as a visible minority.

I can't tell the difference between a Greek,Italian,Latin american or Arab

So,it's quite possible your off base on this and there are visible minorities on the board

Cangamble said...

Maybe WEG has visible minorities.
Can you tell me which one he or she is from looking at this page?

Anonymous said...

I'd say four guys could pass for Greek,Italian,Latin american or Arab.

Pinsonneault,Crouter,Mitchell and
Macdonald.

Although,I never look at someones color I look at there character.

Cangamble said...

Pinsonneault,Crouter,Mitchell and
Macdonald, might pass as visible minorities
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Too funny.

Like I said, it is statistically impossible if the hiring standards are done on the basis of skill, personalities, character, and/or work ethic for EVERYONE who is a director/manager and TV host in Toronto to not be a visible minority....unless the company had only 4 or 5 higher ups.
We are talking 25 or so people here. Again, Toronto is 43% visible minority. And none of those pictured would be classed as such by anyone taking a census who has even bad eyesight.
And none of these people would say they were a visible minority to a phone census taker either.

Yeah, Willmot looks Puerto Rican. LMAO.

Anonymous said...

Looking at the demographics above.

Why is It the Asians are groups are sperated and the Latin Americans and Arabs are lumped together?

If you put the Italians and Greeks in a minority group then It is clear that the Majority in Toronto are Asian.
You would then have to list the Whites as a Minority.

Cangamble said...

The chances that none of the 25 people would be a visible minority, if selected randomly in Toronto to hold down mentioned positions, using the Toronto census definitions of who is a visible minority, is 1 in 1.14 million.

Again, Italians and Greeks are not a visible minority. And even if so, name me an Italian or Greek on Woodbine's board or management team.

Cangamble said...

OH, and don't use the "they hire the best" line. Because Woodbine doesn't even come close when it comes to hiring the best, and it shows in their results.

Anonymous said...

Toronto is 43% visible minority.

If you add the Greeks and Italians the visible minority is the Visible Majority.

Anonymous said...

Again, Italians and Greeks are not a visible minority.

Why Not?

Cangamble said...

Toronto is 43% visible minority.

If you add the Greeks and Italians the visible minority is the Visible Majority.
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Which makes it even more improbable that WEG has no visible minorities on their board or on TV. And again, you miss the point. The census taker would not call any of these people visible minorities, and non of these people would call themselves visible minorities.


Again, Italians and Greeks are not a visible minority.

Why Not?
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I already addressed it. You are cherry picking my comments and my responses. I'm wondering if you are thick? Do you work for WEG?

Anonymous said...

No I don't work for WEG

Well, I think we can Igree on one thing the Toronto Minority report Is very Flawed.

It's clear that the Whites in Toronto are the visible Minority.

Thanks

If you play Hometown boy in the third at Belmont today you'll be pleased.

railbirdbrad said...

It's all greek to me.

Cangamble said...

Forget who is a minority and who isn't.
Who on WEGs board of director or management team or on their TV hosting crew would be rejected by the KKK if any of them decided to be members?

Thanks for the tip, but I don't play Belmont except for huge races. No rebates makes me bet very little if at all.

Anonymous said...

Let me see,because the WEGs board members are white they should be fired.

Sounds like a racist.

Cangamble said...

Where did I say they should be fired for being white? I am merely pointing out that the organization only place whites in higher up positions and on TV.

If anyone is to be fired, it is because Woodbine is an inept organization and the people in the higher up positions are most likely not the best possible choices for the job.

Personally I think their philosophy needs to change, and that starts with ousting David Willmot.

On The Rail said...

It's a big dat at the fort today so if you want to catch some winner's have a look here, race # 1 Bad Boy Will.race #2 Hot As Ice or Uncle Ferd race #3 Tiara Star or Asclipianoulla,race #4 Marco Be Good as best bet wih longshot a Another Ascot to snag 2nd,race #5 Jd Gas on a single in the win 4.The6th is open for anything,best one in here isklissura , but im not convinced im slapping the all button,in the 7th and last leg,it should come down to Rosie Regent and Peach Tree Tea as for the Prince OF Wales..........do you really care? I don't.

railbirdbrad said...

Important Notice.......... This is the most important piece of information that has ever been leaked to a handicapper,It is of no gain to me ,to release this information,but as a blogger and a true race fan,i must for the good of the hard knocking hardcore player's let you know this...........................RAMON DOMINGUEZ,a.k.a. RAY DOMI.... is the most natural,truly talented jockey that ever sat on horse back.horses relax for him like no other,.he rides at Deleware Park as hs home base but winter's in Aqueduct,through the year he rides Saratoga,also by appointment only rides big races all over the U.S.A. and Canada.you need not rack your brains out looking for winning horse's, just find Ramon's live mount's and play them with confidence. at Deleware today he is live on races # 1 5 7 8 10 he has the favorite in the 9th which i dont care for.Take note .......

RAILBIRDBRAD said...

Amazng as my computer ommitted races 2.3.4. at deleware park for Ray Domi and his live mounts!

Vic said...

Amazing how an innocuous comment re: horse racing turns into this nonsense. Had Big Red Mike (a tough bugger, hard to run down) probably same thing at the Prince of Wales but a question at the Breeders? (Too far possible but he is a tough SOB.
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