23 October 2008

Breeder's Cup 2008 Handicapping Edition

First off, this is the way it should be: All ADW's will be accepting bets on the Breeder's Cup, and this includes rebating shops like Premier Turf Club.

Now it is time to reveal my predictions for the Breeder's Cup races. Note: I'm making picks without knowing which races cross entered horses will wind up in.

Handicapping these events is one thing, expecting positive results is another. So many horses, so many trips. And guessing who is peaking and who is not, is hard enough. But I'm going to take a stab anyway.

Filly and Mare Sprint
1.Zaftig-Lays over the field if ready
2.Ventura-Needs a perfect trip like in the Madison.
3.Tiz Elemental-Real longshot. Consistent, and might be peaking.

Juvenile Fillies Turf
1.Beyond Our Reach-Domestic horses look weak in this one. Best from across the pond.
2.Evita Argentina-Madonna was just in Toronto, so why not?
3.Laragh-The best known quantity from the North Americans.

Juvenile Fillies
1.Persistently-This is really really tough race. This one is improving every time.
2.Evita Argentina-I don't know if I'd run the horse here or the turf; tough decision.
3.Be Smart-Last race was better than it looks.

Filly and Mare Turf

1.Mauralakana-Likes the distance; second race off a layoff; I like this one.
2.Communique-Just behind my selection in last. Should make the best from post one.
3.Halfway To Heaven-Getting five pound as a three year old; The best invader?

Ladies Classic
1.Carriage Trail-I don't think she drifted as badly as it says she did;The best!
2.Hysterical Lady-Just lost last year in this race; Really consistent type.
3.Santa Teresita-Distance an issue; This one knows California.

Marathon
1.Casino Drive-If the owners choose to run him here, he will be more than tough.
2.Fairbanks-First time at the distance; Might go all the way.
3.Delightful Kiss-He recently won at Turfway going the same distance.

Turf Sprint
1.Tropic Storm-I like the cutback to his favourite distance (well, on the dirt)
2.One Union-Looks like he is ready to run his best.
3.Diabolical-Probably the best invader.

Dirt Mile
1.First Defense-Cross entered in the Sprint too; Looks best in either race.
2.Lewis Michael-Loves synthetic tracks.
3.Well Around-Should come flying for a good piece.

Mile
1.Raven's Pass-Distance specialist who has been one two in Grade One Europe races.
2.War Monger-This could be a peak race.
3.Bold Chieftain-Likes the distance; good post; class an issue.

Juvenile
1.Believe In Hope-Tough race, lots of horses close on figs; Go with the post.
2.Coronet Of A Baron-First time over a mile but he looks like he can handle it.
3.Munnings-Needs a good trip as do many others here.

Juvenile Turf
1.Grand Adventure-Ran absolutely huge in last.
2.Bittel Road-Hasn't lost yet, and all three victories have been on the green.
3.Coronet Of A Baron-Another cross entered horse; I expect the trainer to know best.

Sprint
1.First Defense-He can't win both the Mile and the Sprint on the same day.
2.Fatal Bullet-This one can fly.
3.Cost Of Freedom-Five for five going 6 furlongs.

Turf
1.Soldier Of Fortune-If the invaders are doing OK, this one will be tough.
2.Grand Couturier-The now horse at this distance.
3.Out Of Control-Might have easy fractions on the lead.

Classic
1.Curlin-As long as he is in near peak form, the race is for second.
2.Mast Track-Knows the track; Could be a pace factor.
3.Casino Drive-If he goes here, he might grab a piece.


Good luck!

To see some of the top races for free, go check out the NTRA site and search for horses are races.

Finally, it appears that there an openly gay horse is starting to cause some commotion:)

Too bad the Onion doesn't even know that Breeder's Cup Day is on Saturday. At least horse racing is on the radar screen, even if it is only a little blip.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

Nice picks for the Breeders Cup races i see a possible 2 winners if your lucky.Hey if you go to the track to bet,visit the track phychiatrist,im sure he can help.

Anonymous said...

PSYCHIATRIST?

Anonymous said...

Great pics LMAO.

Cangamble said...

Yep, the picks sucked. I did the form too early, not that it would help. I'm a speed handicapper, and I just don't have a system that can pick an overseas horse who never went past 1 mile on the turf to win a Grade 1 race going a mile and a quarter on synthetic whatever you want to call it.

Anonymous said...

Here's to the handicapper...14 races, one winner and of your three selections per race almost every one were off the board...Good grief!!!

Anonymous said...

I apologise...Apparently you had no winners...I guess you picked Raven's Pass for the mile, not the classic...Sure hope you are a $2 bettor...

Cangamble said...

I hardly bet the Breeders. It isn't made for speed handicapper's like me.
BTW, what is your biggest score? I've had quite a few over $10,000, and one as high as $28,000.
You didn't publish your picks, so I assume you did better than me, but then again, almost everyone did.

Anonymous said...

Well, let's see, I selected Ventura, Forever Together, Zenyatta, Albertus Maximus, and Midnight Lute, much better than my usual Breeder's Cup Days...I am a strong believer in track bias and trip handicapping, with a close look at Beyer's, among other variables...I seldom make selections before I know how the track is playing...I never play Santa Anita either...However, it didn't take long to see an obvious off-the-pass bias at Santa Anita on Friday afternoon which carried on, albeit not as strongly on Saturday...As for my biggest coup? I rarely play the exotics, more of a win bettor and I play more for the thrill of handicapping than anything else...Like they say, "Bet big, sleep in the streets"