July 25, 2010

Mobthewarrior and Hotep In Today's Prince Of Wales

HANDICAPPING TODAY'S PRINCE OF WALES STAKES
I have to go against the home team. No horse has yet to win the Prince Of Wales after winning the Plate on polytrack. I think that is the least of what Big Red Mike has to overcome.

Big Red Mike benefited from the best speed track since Polytrack replaced dirt at Woodbine. He also suffered from the heat in the Plate which was only 21 days ago. His last two races were gate to wire, and I don't see him sniffing the lead with Golden Moka (it is possible he could have a five length lead early on) and Mobil Unit in the race.

The rail was also golden on Plate Day. Big Red Mike had a double bias going for him, but two main contenders ran against the bias. Hotep, though up close early, was outside the entire race, and had Big Red Mike been chasing Hotep on the outside, I would expect Hotep to have won the Plate by open lengths.

A horse who was totally screwed because of his post position was Mobthewarrior. He now goes from the twelve post to the one post. He made what looked to be a possible winning move around the far turn, but running against both biases might have cost him up to 6 or 7 lengths. He would have to have been a super horse to have swept by the top pair. Today, he won't have to be that good, though his breeding for the distance is still a question mark.

The rest of the field today are a bunch of pretenders. Perhaps Captain Canuck will close for a piece in the triactor or superfecta.

Gotta go with the value. Mobthewarrior and Hotep. Box them. As for horizontal bets, one of those two will win today's race.

Remember though, if you aren't getting a good rebate on Fort Erie, tread carefully. Track takeout at Fort Erie is close to the highest in North America:

26.2% on exactor and daily doubles in out and out robbery.



Woodbine Has Steward's Ruling On Their Website

Personally, I hate searching the ORC site for rulings. Most are stale, and they are very slow to update them. Hopefully, Woodbine will make an effort to post information in a timely matter.

Racing Medication and Testing Emporium have a recent rulings data base. It is interesting to see what prohibited drugs are in vogue these days and by guiding your mouse over the drug you can see what the drug is used for. Of course, my contention that any trainer hitting at 25% or better, over a large enough sample (100 races or so), is using something undetectable, still stands.

Transparency is a good thing. When it comes to racing fines and suspensions, it inevitably will lead to a cleaner game which will instill confidence amongst the bettors and fans.


Ontario May Regulate On Line Gambling Sooner Than Later

Woodbine will probably lobby to have control of it, but why should any track? This could be a huge blow to any chance for horse racing to grow. The industry failed to compete, and still fails to compete with other forms of gambling that have much lower house takes.


TRACKMASTER HAS IMPROVED THEIR PRODUCT LINE

'Just in time for these premier meets, TrackMaster has made some significant improvements to its Thoroughbred product line. Many of these changes were a result of a meeting we had with the guys from HANA (Horse Players Association of North America), a smart group who has given a voice and influence in the industry for the “player”.

Now available in TrackMaster Plus Pro and our Platinum and regular PP files:

* Listing of prior race scratches, including reason
* A simple one page “In to go” list for jockeys, trainers and horses
* Highest Equibase Speed Figure earned added to the horse’s summary stats
* Direct link to Equibase for late scratches and changes
* Expanded conditional trainer stats
* Added statistics for the prior trainer when there is a trainer change'

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