26 June 2011

Queen's Plate Prediction: Bowman's Causeway

My handicapping of big races of late has been pathetic but always keep in mind that even a broken watch is right twice a day, and I am due.

That being said, it is hard for me to state "bet the house" on Bowman's Causeway with confidence, however, it doesn't mean you can't bet the tool shed on him.

Unfortunately, jockey Eurico Rosa Da Silva isn't in the same rut as me, as he is going for his third Queen's Plate in a row, something that has never been done before.

He was second in the Plate Trial a few weeks back. He ran good, but Check Your Soul ran much better. The key word is "ran." Past tense. Horses who win generally have a lot going for them in the race they won (including being in peak form much of the time). Things change. You get better value wagering on the horse who didn't have everything go his own way the previous start, or a horse who just wasn't at a peak that race.

Here is a video of the Plate Trial. Yes, Check Your Soul won easily, however, Bowman's Causeway looks like a horse who needed the race and treated the race like a prep:

To round out the triactor, I like long shot Seawatch. Definitely worth throwing in.

There is an early post time for Woodbine's card today (12:25PM EST).

Handicapping tip. I've noticed through the years that when a jockey has a good shot in a big race, that jock might not be a good bet in the early races. I think it is a mixture of practicality (focusing on the huge purse), the possible fame that goes with it, the jockey's testing of track biases (using his mounts as guinea pigs), and possibly the idea of saving themselves for the big race and not putting themselves in a position to get injured (which might be on the back of their mind).

I would avoid Patrick Husbands mounts prior to the Plate today, unless you think he is on an immortal cinch. Eurico Rosa Da Silva may be another jockey to stay clear of. He would love to win this race a third year in a row. And possibly it might be a good idea to tread lightly on horses ridden by Luis Contreras who rides filly Inglorious.

The overall card at Woodbine today looks fairly predictable (for Woodbine which isn't saying a lot). Here are my selections (yep, I know I'll get comments afterwards on how bad a handicapper I am):

1st Race Playin'inmywhiskey
2nd Race Mollymook at a price
3rd Race Captain Raucous
4th Race Pit Alley/Aerial View
5th Race Silver Timber
6th Race Are You Kitten Me/R Unpainted Dancer
7th Race Windward Islands/Simmard
8th Race Bartletts
9th Race Opening Meet
10th Race Bowman's Causeway
11th Race Thunder Dancing
12th Race Gangster Rap

Fort Erie too, looks very predictable today. Don't forget, the Pick 4 takeout rate is only 14%.
Here you go:

1st Race: Sexy Made Simple (Best Bet of the day)
2nd Race: Vale of Avoca
3rd Race: Zlato
4th Race: Purple Satchel/Myah's Flight
5th Race: Decker West
6th Race: Limosano/Kennisis River
7th Race: Sharing The Love
8th Race: Voodoo Momma

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