Fort Erie By The Numbers So Far

It is way too early to figure out if Fort Erie is going in the right direction, but it seems, so far, they are going in the same direction despite a publicized new attitude and new management.

On the bright side, total handle is up 3% from $2,543,865 to $2,627,135 according to Equibase numbers. They have had one extra race this year as opposed to last year (why they added the race on a Sunday, their worst handle day and not Monday or Tuesday, is a complete mystery to me), so per race handle is only up 0.7% ($64,076 vs. $63,596 last year). There is a trend right now as bigger rebated horseplayers are starting to shift some of their action from high distribution fee tracks (like Tracknet tracks) to tracks that sell their signal for a more reasonable rate, and Fort Erie is in a position to at least hold their own thanks to that.

Live handle is pretty lousy right now (down 12.6%). Only $284,390 has been bet live this year versus $325,520 last year at this time, despite the one extra race this year. To be fair, live handle is down just about everywhere, but in Fort Erie's case, live bettors are extremely important, and they have a huge impact on sustaining current race days and purses, as horsemen get a much bigger cut on horseplayers who bet live (whether it is Fort Erie or another track on the simulcast menu).

Field size has been a problem at most tracks this year as well. Keeneland dropped to under 8 horses a race this spring compared to over 9 the year before. Fort Erie's field size average is down from 7.87 horses a race last year at this time to 7.48 horses a race. Horseplayers generally bet more, the bigger the field size. They got hurt a bit on Tuesday, as 3 horses were vet scratched in the last race, reducing the field size to 5. Their last two races on weekdays, are their money makers, as they run up against the least competition at that time.

It wasn't a great move to move post times to 1:30, instead of 1:45 last year (if anything, it should be 2 PM post times on weekdays), especially if they are only running 8 races on Monday and Tuesday. They need every edge they can get. That is why they should run the first race on Saturday at around 12:20 so as to get the horseplayers first betting dollars from across North America.

Field size and handle numbers tend to increase considerably as the year goes on. Last year, field size average at Fort Erie wound up at 8.22 a race, while they averaged $85,439 in handle per race.

Lets Compare Fort Erie To Finger Lakes, Shall We?

There were three dates that apples to apples comparisons to Fort Erie can be made this year (Kentucky Derby Day and the past Mondays and Tuesdays). Unfortunately, Finger Lakes doesn't readily publish live handle so I can only compare total handle.

In the three comparison days, total handle at Finger Lakes was $3,887,701 this year compared to $3,488,672 last year (an increase of 11.1%). $143,989 has been bet per race compared to $129,210 for the corresponding days from last year. Finger Lakes appears to be benefiting as well from the shift in wagering being done by rebate players.

Field size has rose from 7.22 horses per race to 7.51 horses per race. For those three days, Fort Erie's field size dropped from 8.16 to 7.46 (still around Finger Lakes new number).

Last year, Finger Lakes averaged $113,308 a race in handle for the year with a 7.79 field size.

When comparing the per race handle, one has to ask what Finger Lakes does differently than Fort Erie.

As a handicapper who uses speed figures, if anything, Fort Erie has the same or even slightly higher quality on average than Finger Lakes does.

Finger Lakes runs a lot of State Bred races, including State Bred claiming races. These races do attract horses with lower speed figures most of the time. However, as a horseplayer, I find these races to be really good races to handicap, and I tend to bet more on them, especially if the field size is 7 or greater. Usually there are a couple of standouts, but there are usually fringe longshots, who lose by double digits in open races but have a chance against the lesser competition.

The median average purse at Fort Erie was $10,422 versus $9,500 at Finger Lakes, but average purses given out per day at Finger Lakes was $122,564 versus $105,103 at the Fort. Finger Lakes runs an extra race per day than Fort Erie, and it has more allowance and Stake races, though I have never seen any evidence that B Allowance and B Stake races attract any more handle than claiming races with good field size.

Finger Lakes is probably simulcast at more places than Fort Erie, including all the NY OTBs. This gives Finger Lakes a big edge if true.

Finger Lakes is not surrounded by gambling competition like Fort Erie is, but since I don't know the live handle figures, it is difficult to analyze the impact.

I find Fort Erie races in general to be more exciting, and less predictable most of the time. This can be a good thing, but also can be a bad thing when you start talking takeout.

Comparing track takeouts

Fort Erie WPS 16.95%, Triactors 28.2%, All other bets 26.2% (including exactors and doubles.....yes, including exactors and doubles.

Finger Lakes WPS 18%, Exactors and Doubles 20%, All other bets 25%.

Finger Lakes wins this comparison hands down. You can't take 26.2% on exactors and doubles especially, and expect people to come back so quickly, if at all.

In the old days (1960's and 70's) when there was no simulcasts, hardly any exotics, a live horseplayer could only play around 8 races, and mostly had to play WPS (at takeouts of less than 16% back then, I believe). Plenty left the building with money on them to go the next day. This kept the crowds in the game. There were even some winners around, and there was a buzz that the game could actually be beat.

What Fort Erie does, with their high takeouts is make it impossible to get gamblers enthused or motivated to come back the next day. It is almost like they've given up. They also underpay customers on simulcast wagers. This is not good, and it gives punters even less of a reason to come to the track.

They still assume that the focus is on a mindless crowd, and the key is to just bring them to the track. Great. Get them to the track, but you have to try to let them leave with something too, so that they might just come back.

Horseplayers are not typical gamblers. Horse racing attracts thinking gamblers. And when it becomes over apparent that one has no chance gambling, they move on to other types of gambling that have much lower vig.

Back to the comparison. Finger Lakes does not race on Sundays. Sundays are horrible handle days for Fort Erie, but they need to run at least one weekend day so as to allow the 9-5ers and their families a chance to make it to the track, including of course small owners. However, with the high takeout, and the hit and run mentality that is prevalent at most tracks these days, getting newbies or casual players to become more than that is futile. Might as well scrap Sundays for Wednesdays.

I really want Fort Erie to survive, but they have to do things differently in order to attract their bread and butter: THE HORSEPLAYER.

I don't see too many of the suggestions I wrote about in Fort Erie, The Future Is Now, being implemented as yet.


Rick Cowan Hired To Supervise and Manage Fort Erie
The biggest piece of the management puzzle has been filled at Fort Erie. Rick Cowan, who brings a vast amount of experience with him, will now be running the joint.

He ran Woodbine back in the early 80's, at a time when they didn't have slots, and were experiencing enhanced competition from the Blue Jays, lotteries, and finally charity casinos. The crowds were ample during Cowan's reign.

I think a really good choice was made.

Just a couple of things though. Fort Erie needs anyone who wants to bet to bet, including employees, and ties are not condoned by most Fort Erie residents:)


HANDICAPPING FORT ERIE

A certain racetrack analyst at Fort Erie likes to stress a certain angle: Give horses a race before you bet them at Fort Erie if they are coming from Woodbine. It just didn't seem right to me, so I had Pull The Pocket get me some data using Jcapper software.

Here are the key finds:

When a horse ships in from another track to Fort Erie, and they have the top rated speed figs, they win at a 25% clip. The win rate is good, but the return is horrible, as these horses are vastly over bet and return 55 cents for every dollar wagered.

If you bet all shippers making their first start at the Fort, you would lose over 26 cents on every dollar bet with a 14.5% win percentage. This is a strong loss considering takeout should only cause a 17 cent loss on the dollar.

If the shipper came from Woodbine, the first race at Fort Erie produces a 15% win rate, and if you bet them all, you would lose over 28 cents for every dollar wagered.

There is a slight increase when a horse makes its second start at Fort Erie. Win percentage goes up to 14.8%, while the return on investment (ROI) goes up to 75.6%. Still, losing 24 cents on the dollar is no way to beat the game.

What this tells me is that value is to be had by ignoring Woodbine horses who wound up becoming Fort Erie horses. First start, second start, hardly a difference.

They do OK on their fifth start (you only lose 10 cents for every dollar wagered), and you can actually show a profit if you bet them on their 11th start at the track after they shipped (a profit of 4%).

After 6 Racing Days, Woodbine Handle Off Around 20%

Woodbine started up on Good Friday this year as opposed to the first Saturday in April last year, so a total apples to apples handle comparison can't be made because we've seen 6 cards this year versus 5 cards last year, but there is no doubt that Woodbine's management team is in panic mode right now, as they should be.

Last year after 5 dates, average handle was $2,264,082, and this was without being featured on TVG. This year, the average handle is only $1,815,093, which represents a drop of 19.8%. And if you take out the first Friday, the average now becomes $1,755,417 (a drop of 22.5%).

If you want to look at it another way, last year after only 5 days of horse racing at Woodbine, they did $429,853 in total handle more than they did in total handle after 6 racing days this year.

Last Friday, the total handle had to be embarrassing. Only $1,032,283 was wagered. In fact, Turf Paradise (whose purses equaled less than the featured allowance race at Woodbine that day), had a handle of $1,234,840. Mountaineer had a handle of $1,403,809. Incidentally, Tampa Bay Downs did $3,926,932 in handle on Friday.

Woodbine announced a 15% purse cut for harness races recently, and in a stunned move, took it out on the every day purses and left the Stake races alone. It was stated that after 4 days of racing this year, it was evident that betting on standardbred was off enough that a purse drop was inevitable.

Thoroughbred horsemen better brace themselves because it looks like Woodbine will have no choice but to drop purses soon if betting doesn't pick up significantly.

But why is betting off so much?

People playing catch up from last year's recession? Possible. There could be less disposable cash lying around these days from even a year ago. However, Vegas just announced that gross revenues were up over 13% in February over the previous February.

Credit crunch. It is harder, especially for Americans to get credit to play the ponies, and many horseplayers are stretched to the limit in Canada as well.

More horseplayers are leaving for Betfair, offshore betting, poker, etc. Again, Woodbine has done nothing to compete for the business of existing gamblers. From taking a cut from horseplayer's winnings on exotics at many US tracks (which disgust horseplayers) to having a high average track takeout on their own product that ranks 58th out of 69 tracks according to a recent study by HANA.

Existing horseplayers are more aware than ever before about track takeout as the main excuse for why they lose and can't last. More articles about horse racing, blogs and forums are bring up track takeout each and every day. Rebates, too are getting lots of ink.

It can't be the polytrack because Keeneland is grooving. On their opening day, they did over $7.5 million in handle. But then again, Keeneland is tied with Churchill Downs for having the lowest track takeout average in North America.

Woodbine remains being a stubborn corporate entity, and if they think that they can replace $1,000 a day bettors with $2 bettors, and keep purses where they are, they are kidding themselves.

It is too late to be proactive. It is time to panic, and time to think about the future. The HBPA also needs to play ball as well, or horsemen will wind up being like a deer in the headlight as purses will continue to drop if changes are not made immediately to the way Woodbine treats their customer, the bettor.

Takeout must be reduced significantly on all exotics outside of exactors and doubles. The practice of taking a cut of the horseplayer's winning on US exotics must be stopped as well. And if purse cuts do occur, they need to try to keep the lower end claiming purses as high as possible, because the biggest asset Woodbine has right now outside the existing horseplayer, is the existing owner and breeder. It has to be economical for them so that they stay in the game with as many horses as possible.


Fort Erie isn't budgeted for a 20% decrease in handle, but to date, have not made any announcement about keeping existing horseplayers or attracting more gamblers. They really need to address their high takeout rates. Fort Erie was rated 67th out of 69 tracks when it came to track takeout. Give the horseplayer back more money, they will last longer, and if they go home with a little more money, they are more likely to come back quicker.

Speaking about Fort Erie, here is an article about underrated jockey Krista Carrignan. Carrignan is represented by agent Scottie Lane this year. Fort Erie's season begins the first Saturday in May, which falls on the 1st this year.



Quebec only will race 10 days this year because of alleged red tape. Better than nothing. And Woodbine gets access to the Quebec betting market, who are used to betting into high takeouts. Not to say that many in Quebec gamblers have stopped playing ponies, at least in Canada.


Down The Stretch put out an edition less than two weeks ago. There is an interesting article on owner/breeder/former teen icon, David Cassidy by Perry Lefko.


I'll finish up with one of my favorite Partridge Family songs:

HANA's Track Rating Resource: Great For Horseplayers And The Industry Alike

HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) has published their 2010 Thoroughbred track ratings. It is a great player and industry resource, with sortable columns for up to date track takeout for most wagers as well as sortable columns for things like handle per race and field size. The current blog piece is a focus on tracks with the lowest takeouts.

It is pretty amazing that 12 of the top 16 track's with the lowest takeout score have no alternative source of gambling. This isn't true when it comes to the bottom ranked tracks, which are dominated by tracks that have slots. Woodbine and Northlands Park tie for 58th spot out of 69 tracks when it comes to highest takeouts, while Fort Erie finds itself pathetically in 67th spot on the list, bettering only Suffolk Downs (68th), and Assiniboia (69th).

The industry is not taking HANA's work lightly lately. It is in panic mode, and I think the message that it is the horseplayer that is the customer, and only the customer, is beginning to become a reality, and it is about time the industry find out how the customer thinks, and works with that knowledge instead of the old way which is how the industry wants the horseplayer to think.

HANA is getting lots of press. Check this out.

To join HANA, simply click here, it is free, and it only takes a minute.



Gaming revenues in Nevada jump almost 14% in February
So what is horse racing's excuse? Total handle on US races declined over 6% in March. That followed double digit declines in January and February compared to the corresponding months the year before.

Horse racing has still not bottomed out yet, and still, next to nothing has been done to address the pricing of the bet, in order to compete and grow again. Proving once again, that racing is one of the most, if not the most, dysfunctional industry in the Western world.

Cutting race days or purses is a band aid solution, and as this trend continues, horse racing will become less of a concern, not only by the public, but also regarding government subsidies.

On a related note, if Woodbine is not careful, they will soon have their slot subsidies questioned, as more and more American outfits usurp the Canadian outfits thanks to Woodbine's effort to attract Americans by carding American bred friendly races such as B Allowance races. And more importantly, not carding Ontario bred claiming events and even worse, continuing the new practice of not allowing the owner of a newly claimed Ontario horse run for the full purse.

It is almost like Woodbine is telling the owners, go get a superior Kentucky bred, bring it here and race it. It is a lot less risky than buying an Ontario bred either at a sale, and of course, unless you think a newly claimed Ontario bred can win an Ontario sired allowance race, don't even think about claiming one.

There are two existing components of growth for betting: The existing horseplayer, and the existing owner. Owners and horseplayers are the one's who will likely expose newbies to the game (friends, relatives, and sometimes coworkers and neighbours). The horseplayer in Ontario has been ravaged for years by high takeout. Many have left to play poker, Betfair, or are now wagering offshore with bookies or rebate shops. Now the horse owner and breeders are really feeling Woodbine's corporate mentality of trying to attract more quality (even though studies have shown that quality means very little compared to pricing when it comes to handle). We are seeing less and less new Ontario owners come into the game through partnerships or as lone entities, and it all boils down to Woodbine having little understanding of who the real customer is.

Forum Question: If you won a $5 Million Lottery would you continue to bet on horses? Not one NO so far. Horseplayers sure are either passionate and/or addicted.


CHANTAL'S BACK

CHANTAL'S FRONT

Seriously though, Chantal Sutherland is back at Woodbine. She is listed to ride a couple of horses this afternoon (Friday) at Woodbine.


Beulah Park's 25 Cent Fortune Pick 6's jackpot has climbed to $307,465 going into Saturday. You can bet it here, if you live in the right State.

Betfair Sizzles While Parimutuel Handle Fizzles

Handle Down Another 13% In July
Short Post At Pull The Pocket Says It All.



HANA represented at Yavapai this weekend

HANA prez Jeff Platt will be there. Arizona is one of the most problematic states out there when it comes to being bettor-friendly. It is illegal for anyone to make a bet over the internet in Arizona. No phone betting either. In fact, if you are a resident from another state, it is against the law to place a bet on the internet while on Arizona soil (though I don't think anyone has been charged or prosecuted violating that law yet).

The laws are ridiculous and only benefit the off track parlours and Indian casinos (because they are faced with less competition). Smells of political payoffs. Why not have a state run or racetrack run ADW and keep a law that states that Arizona residents can only bet on the internet through that ADW? At least it gives the Arizona residents the opportunity to play from home.

Arizona also allows ticket cancellations after the race goes. At Yavapai it is 4 seconds, and at Turf Paradise it is 8 seconds.

This opens the door to possible fraudulent behavior like we saw at Woodbine and Greenwood over 20 years ago when a betting syndicate would make large bets and cancel tickets when their horse had a bad start (there were tellers involved in the scam as well).



The Bizarro World Of Woodbine

I know I've been outspoken over Woodbine's policy to ramp up takeouts on triactors to 27%. It is completely unfair, and borderline illegal, if not illegal if challenged.

What that means is that if you hit a triactor at a WEG outlet or through HPI that pays $810 for a deuce at Churchill Downs (which has a 19% takeout on triactors), you will be paid off $730 in Canada.

Well, it seems that HPI/WEG/Woodbine ramps down the takeout on venues that have a higher than 27% takeout like Penn and Philadelphia Park.

I was amazed when I saw that triactors actually paid a little more in Canada than they did at the track where the race was held.

I'm wondering if Woodbine did this voluntarily, or if the CPMA or another government agency pressured them to do this.

It isn't like Woodbine is going to advertise this because they rip customers off way more than the customer gets an advantage under this new rule, and they would be crazy to bring this to light. So I'm advertising this for them:)




Jen's Thoroughblog on the death of Charles (Norcliffe) Baker


Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance has a new web page and has added a few more blogs.



What's The Deal With Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy?

.....The New York State Racing and Wagering Board has decided to deny horses entry into races if they have received hyperbaric oxygen therapy treatment within one week of post time.....Purified oxygen does not exist naturally in a horse....these treatments could give a horse an unfair advantage in a race while jeopardizing the horse’s health.....

After watching horses who race for certain trainers at Woodbine, who have abnormally high win percentages, I wouldn't be startled that these horses are running with an unnatural supply of oxygen.

One trainer in particular seems to win a heck of a lot of races on the front end at Woodbine, which is quite a feat in itself. And most of these runners seem to run identical. They bust out of the gate, look like they will get beat halfway around the far turn as the field catches up, but then, almost like what happens when Popeye eats spinach, they rebreak as if they haven't run an inch in the race.

Sure, there are some horses who can do that, with a relaxed lead, and their are certain horses that are just that much better than the rest and know how to win. But when you see quite a few horses in the same barn run like that, it certainly looks very suspicious.

But is it breaking the rules in Ontario to have oxygen therapy or use a drug that enhances the oxygen flow during a race? I don't know.


Things That Make You Wonder If Woodbine Doesn't Need To Replace Their Head Honcho

Fort Erie's handle on Tuesday's 9 race card: $1,200,800
Woodbine's 8 race handle on Thursday: $1,205,973

Fort Erie is on death's door, but Woodbine, thanks to slots and only slots (location, location, location), can afford to pay their racing execs mega salaries and bonuses for doing absolutely nothing beneficial to attract new customers.

If It Aint Broke D....Well Horse Racing Is Broke...Now What?

Horse racing handle was down a staggering 16.9% in June in the USA

Sure, those who have jobs as racing execs, but shouldn't, will blame the economy. Meanwhile, it hard to blame the economy when "Month to month, comparing only the Pennsylvania casinos that were open a year ago, revenues were up more than seven percent in June of this year over June of 2008."

It is also hard to ignore the fact that when the economy was peaking, handle was dropping, albeit to a much lesser degree than what we've seen the past month, but dropping nonetheless. It has been stagnant to dropping for 7 years now.

Oh wait, there were less race dates. But there was only a 2% reduction in dates, so that isn't a real good argument.

The thing that might, and I say might, make the industry notice is that purses were down 6% in June. Yes, change is needed, and when the pocket books are hurt, change actually may happen.

I wrote a piece back in November: Will The Recession Wake Up The Racing Industry?

Personally, I think racing is starting to wake up, but it is still too dysfunctional to react in a positive manner.

Read more at The Paulick Report and at Pace Advantage.

It is great to read more and more articles, blog posts and forum comments on track takeout being the number one problem that horse racing has right now. I think blogs like this, and the awareness that HANA has spread in the past year has helped educate the public immensely.

HANA has written a piece on Cary Fotias' views on takeout.


Apparently Potential Investors For Fort Erie Race Track Do Exist

“We have three interested parties at the moment, now we are just looking to find the right fit,” said Thibert.

The first option, according to (Jim) Thibert, is an Ontario-based land development company that has owned a racetrack in the past. They are exploring full ownership or partnering with the not-for-profit group.

The second potential investor is very interested and in the entertainment business. It apparently already owns a few racetracks in the United States and are experienced in that area.

The third company is also Canadian based and is part of an international consortia that has a lot of experience in the gaming business.

Regardless of which company they go with, Thibert says they’ll be pushing for a five-year deal.

*********************************
The thing is that when it comes to these potential investors, price is always an issue. The $35 million Thibert and Nordic Gaming came up with was a complete joke.

It doesn't help future negotiations either.

Nordic has a history of wanting waaaaaaaaaaaay too much for the track. Until that changes, the chances the track sells are next to nothing.

Seriously, how much is a track worth that supposedly loses money even with slots? From a business standpoint? Nothing. How much is the land worth with a losing business? That is a tough one. Knowing what I know about Fort Erie and the real estate market there, I'm thinking no more than $10 million tops.


Woodbine Gets Hit Again: Turbo Charged Pick 6 Gets Scooped Up Once More
If it wasn't for Woodbine's treatment of their customers (ramping up many triactor bets from other jurisdictions to a 25-27% takeout, while making it almost impossible for Canadians to bet through American ADWs where they could get half decent rebates, or at the very least, get the actual prices that many triactors pay), I'd actually feel sorry for them.

They were able to attract just over $80,000 in new money as more players are starting to realize that there is value in the bet. But overall handle for the day wasn't all that good at $2.6 million, as horseplayers continue to avoid Woodbine's higher end takeout scheme (27% takeout on triactors, for example).

If my math is right, so far Woodbine Entertainment has put in $450,000 and they've received around $29,000 in takeout proceeds (after horsemen were paid, and assuming that 50% of the money is generated from those who pay Woodbine a signal fee). I wonder if the execs are going to have to take pay cuts if this continues:)

It appears there were five winners yesterday. I wonder if any of them got some help from Horseplayersbet.com, who missed the first leg (it was a favorite though), but mentioned the next five winners, including 3 first choice winners (including the last race winner at 8-1).

I had five of six again this week. This time spending $120. I only had it once this time and got back $176.


Short Fields: Which Tracks Are Most Guilty Of Running Races With Five Starters Or Less
Rook, a fellow Canuckian who posts on Pace Advantage, posted the percentage of races that have 5 horses or less per track:

GG17.4% MTH13.2% ARP12.5% BEL12.5% LRL11.2% HST10.9% RD10.4%HOL10.2% HAW10.0% NP9.9% DEL9.0% BEU8.8% PIM8.8% PHA7.7% AQU7.7%PRM7.4% ASD7.3% EMD7.3% PID7.0% CNL7.0% CD6.3% KEE6.3% CBY6.1% CRC6.1% SA6.1% PM5.6% TP5.2% AP5.1% FL3.8% TUP3.7% RUI3.6% FP3.5%GP3.1% FG2.9% IND2.6% FE2.5% CT2.3% WO2.3% PEN2.2% OP2.0% LS2.0%LA1.9% MNR1.5% SRP1.2% SUN0.9% SUF0.9% DED0.8% LAD0.8% TDN0.8%YAV0.8% FON0.6% EVD0.6% WRD0.6% RET0.4% TAM0.4%