Jeff Gural's Plan To Discourage The Retirement of Three Year Olds To Stud
Great idea. In fact, Gural have he may have got that from me. Unfortunately for thoroughbred fans, Gural is only talking harness here, and only talking three tracks.
No mention of broodmares. I think it is important that they don't stop racing too quickly either.
The two good things that will come from this for either harness or thoroughbred horses, is that good horses will have careers that can be followed longer, and it gives them a chance to develop a larger fan base, and secondly, it will lead to horses being bred for longevity instead of being bred to be a shooting star.
Trainer Lou Pena Barred At Yonkers
Two harness stories in a row, well they could be thoroughbred stories just the same, as the issues overlap in both industries.
Pena was barred for winning way way way too much. The controversy here is that whatever he is allegedly using to improve horses so drastically has not been found.
Tracks are private property, so one can be guilty until proven innocent. But this line of rule is hardly used.
As for his guilt, I think John Carter's comment at Standardbred Canada says it all:
"Lou Pena has this sport figured out. He knew the exact right speed to jog his horses thru the week. He figured out the exact right amount of hay and oats to feed his horses on a daily basis. He probably also knew the exact right amount of water to let them drink every day. This was pure genius on his part, no other trainer on the planet has been able to crack this formula and step up horses like they were given rocket fuel. No it is all technique."
The reality here is that both the thoroughbred and standardbred game doesn't do enough to deter cheating. Trainers get a slap on the wrist usually when caught. How about making cheating a criminal offense. Kinda like the riots in Britain, if I was vandalizing a business, I'd expect to be shot at, and until a couple of youths are shot or hurt real bad, there is nothing to stop it.
Super trainers are bad for the game. They not only create races that many handicappers won't play, but they also deter new owners from entering the game (if you are up against cheaters, you are mainly running for third or fourth money).
California Takeout Hike Is Hurting Handle
Del Mar's handle is shrinking (doesn't seem to be the economy judging by Saratoga's results so far), and the tracks want to reduce the takeout on at least a couple of exotics but the TOC isn't too into it. As long as the purses are artificially? higher, the horsemen have no urgency to do the right thing. But since the deal that was made last year which winds up giving the horsemen a higher percentage of what is bet, handle has fallen, and it is the tracks that have been getting clobbered. This is unsustainable, and the tracks know it. The horsemen may know it too, but until they are faced with purse cuts or date cuts, they will probably tend to stay away from fair negotiations regarding the future.
The Players Boycott is hurting them too. Probably not as much as they think, though I know at least 5 players who won't even open up California past performances, and my guess is that there are probably a lot more.
No, the decrease in handle has more to do with increased signal fees and takeout which create a lot less plays for value bettors, which causes them to be pickier and play less. Secondly, those who cash tickets are getting back less, and have less to churn with. This phenomenon gets only will get worse, as these players who don't last as long as they used to have less urgency in coming back to the track as often, and some actually quit over time.
As for the Players Boycott's effectiveness, well how many tracks have increased takeout since California decided to? NONE! How many have lowered takeout on at least one wager? Lots. Even Parx and Penn have got into the action of reducing takeouts. The Boycott is good for Horseplayers, and that means it is good for horse racing's future.
VEGAS NUMBERS IMPROVING
Is this a leading indicator that the economy is about to rebound? How come we aren't seeing the same thing in horse racing?
Maybe it has a lot to do with the US government coming down hard on online poker. These players need to go somewhere, they are after all gamblers.
Too bad horse racing doesn't have the visible winners poker did. Oh wait, the takeout is too damn high for that to happen.
There is very good reason to believe that some online poker players are actually getting their feet wet in online horse racing now. Again, the fact they won't last very long means that racing is missing a golden opportunity right now. And the learning curve is very steep as well.
The online poker players willing to give horse racing a shot though are probably smart enough to get started at ADWs that give rebates, as they are by nature, very price conscious. This fact may help cultivate the odd player into a long term Horseplayer. The industry can only hope.
Showing posts with label Jeff Gural. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jeff Gural. Show all posts
11 August 2011
12 March 2010
Tioga Downs Doing It Right, Monmouth Park Doing It Wrong
Tioga Downs put out a press release yesterday that they are intending to lower their track takeout from 18% on WPS, 20% on Exes and DD's and 25% on Supers to 15%, 17%, and 21% respectively. Tioga actually gave HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) a seat at the table and asked for input a while back leading to this news. Yes!, some track execs do read blogs and message boards and actually take them seriously.
All studies show that if takeout is reduced, handle and the bottom line for the track and horsemen will rise. It usually doesn't happen overnight, but lets see what happens here. I haven't played harness racing in years, but I will support this takeout drop, and if I start cashing tickets, I'll give them even more action. Free past performances would be a huge plus for Tioga to make available.
A couple of quotes by Jason Settlemoir, Tioga Downs VP of Racing and Simulcasting:
“The USTA recently polled visitors to their website and 1,259 out of 1,710 people who voted (roughly 74%) responded they would be more apt to bet races if a track lowered their takeout rate."
“We would even consider going lower on the takeout rates to between eight and nine per cent like the typical hold in the casino world if the state would allow us, and our export sites would be on board."
New York state, or any jurisdiction for that matter, has no business putting a minimum on what a track wants to charge. As for ADWs and tracks not taking Tioga's signal, Settlemoir is correct to be concerned that hardly anyone (if anyone) would take the signal at 8 or 9% in today's market. I don't see why any track would refuse Tioga's proposed structure though....well, Canadians will be out of luck I think if they want to bet Tioga through HPI, and even if HPI did have it, they would base the triactor and superfecta payoffs as if the takeout was somewhere between 25-27%.
Horseplayersbet.com will most probably have Tioga Downs on the menu, and strong Player Rewards will be earned on all bets made.
Tioga Downs President Jeff Gural is currently attending the TRA/HTA conference in California. Attendance is very light apparently. A couple of quotes from Mr. Gural:
"...the race tracks that don’t have slots aren’t here because they can’t afford it. Those that do have slots aren’t here because they don’t care about racing any more.”
“If you’ve got slots,” the pari-mutuel revenues are a drop in the bucket. Why offer slots with an 8% takeout and then charge people 20% to bet on racing?”
He is 100% correct on both accounts. The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board has demanded that Pennsylvania tracks like Philly Park and Penn National demonstrate “concrete ways their commitment to live racing and breeding.” These tracks have been accused of not giving a rats ass about horse racing as it has now become such a small percentage of the bottom line thanks to the expansion of gaming at the tracks in Pennsylvania. Horse racing appears to be a necessary evil there and other tracks throughout North America that have slots.
Personally, I find it disturbing that tracks with slots seem to have the highest takeouts in most cases. Tioga Downs is definitely doing the right thing by going the other way.
See also, Tioga Downs' Bold Move.
Monmouth To Cut Racing Days In Half While Tripling Purses
They actually think that giving out a million a day in purses will lead to doubling the handle. Not a chance!
A study done in 1998 concludes that doubling purses will cause handle to go up by 6%. Lets say the study is a little outdated because the environment has changed because a higher percentage of betting originate off track. And there is also the problem that this study doesn't take into account the effect of reducing dates, which will probably create a larger than normal live handle. OK, so we might see handle increase because of purse size in the neighbourhood of 15-20%. However, betting is down around 10% this year so far.
Saratoga is still going give out $750,000 a day in purses. This means that quality will be diluted. I can't see many California horsemen being lured to Monmouth, considering Saratoga didn't seem to lure many horses during current past meets.
Monmouth may hurt tracks like Woodbine, keeping a few Americans home and luring the odd good Canadian horse or two. But when you look at speed figures at Woodbine last year in general, even with their good purses, there wasn't much quality there to begin with. And Woodbine only averages a little more than $2 million a day in handle.
And how much quality is there in New Jersey bred races no matter what the purse is? There will be at least a couple a card on average.
Bettors don’t care if owners make more money, they generally are attracted to familiarity (something that is lost in horse racing because good horses retire too early), actual quality, and field size.
I prefer betting non winners or two or three races with a field size of 9-12 than a Stake Race where horses are coming from all over.
The biggest problem with this whole line of thinking by Monmouth is that it is just a way of living with a shrinking pie. This will not lead to growth. In fact, it is just adding fuel to the fire.
Less races equals less owners and trainers and horses. And this inevitably means less growth. The two biggest assets the horse racing industry has is its existing bettors, and horsemen (owners in this case). Horseplayers who last longer betting are more likely to expose others in their inner circle to horse racing. Owners, especially smaller partnerships, are more likely to bring friends and family to the track in hopes of getting their pictures taken. The more they race, the more likely they are to bring friends and family. The more friends and family go, the more likely it is that some of them become semi-regulars or even regulars.
I just don't see this Monmouth experiment working. They would have been better advised to reduce takeout, but they didn't confer with HANA, so they went this way instead.
HANA now has over 1500 members.
To join HANA (free to do so), click here.
TRACKMASTER has made their blog a lot more reader friendly. Check it out.
Triple Dead Heat has a couple of neat posts up. An interview with Centennial Farm's Brandon Boone on Queen's Plate hopeful, Captain Canuck, and a really nice photo essay on Windfield's Farm.
University of Arizona Race Track Industry Program student is doing a Master's Degree Thesis Project: "an attempt to develop a new model that takes into consideration this open market system. I am attempting to show that sound economic principles and techniques can be applied to modern pari-mutuel wagering to show the effects of altering the takeout rates."
Should be interesting. His blog will be updated with findings.
I don't do much on either Triple Crowns. But Triple Crown Chase, a blog run by a horse owner in New York, who races his horses mainly at Fort Erie, does. Check out Triple Crown Chase.
After 5 months, Quebec horseplayers can now go back to betting through HPI, because of the promise to run a short harness meet later this year.
Oh, and they are going with a ridiculous average takeout rate 23% takeout rate instead of a super-ultra ridiculous 30% takeout rate, which probably helped them get into the spot they found themselves in to begin with.
For Quebec horseplayer's sake, I hope many discovered there are plenty of ways to bet on horses and get a much much better deal than betting through HPI the past 5 months.
BTW, if you think thoroughbred takeout is high, which it is, takeout rates on harness racing B tracks in Ontario are sickening, oh, and they have slots...ahem.
Gas Soaked Slots Customer Causes Woodbine Slots To Miss A Night Of Revenues. You have to be crazy to play slots. I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often.
All studies show that if takeout is reduced, handle and the bottom line for the track and horsemen will rise. It usually doesn't happen overnight, but lets see what happens here. I haven't played harness racing in years, but I will support this takeout drop, and if I start cashing tickets, I'll give them even more action. Free past performances would be a huge plus for Tioga to make available.
A couple of quotes by Jason Settlemoir, Tioga Downs VP of Racing and Simulcasting:
“The USTA recently polled visitors to their website and 1,259 out of 1,710 people who voted (roughly 74%) responded they would be more apt to bet races if a track lowered their takeout rate."
“We would even consider going lower on the takeout rates to between eight and nine per cent like the typical hold in the casino world if the state would allow us, and our export sites would be on board."
New York state, or any jurisdiction for that matter, has no business putting a minimum on what a track wants to charge. As for ADWs and tracks not taking Tioga's signal, Settlemoir is correct to be concerned that hardly anyone (if anyone) would take the signal at 8 or 9% in today's market. I don't see why any track would refuse Tioga's proposed structure though....well, Canadians will be out of luck I think if they want to bet Tioga through HPI, and even if HPI did have it, they would base the triactor and superfecta payoffs as if the takeout was somewhere between 25-27%.
Horseplayersbet.com will most probably have Tioga Downs on the menu, and strong Player Rewards will be earned on all bets made.
Tioga Downs President Jeff Gural is currently attending the TRA/HTA conference in California. Attendance is very light apparently. A couple of quotes from Mr. Gural:
"...the race tracks that don’t have slots aren’t here because they can’t afford it. Those that do have slots aren’t here because they don’t care about racing any more.”
“If you’ve got slots,” the pari-mutuel revenues are a drop in the bucket. Why offer slots with an 8% takeout and then charge people 20% to bet on racing?”
He is 100% correct on both accounts. The Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board has demanded that Pennsylvania tracks like Philly Park and Penn National demonstrate “concrete ways their commitment to live racing and breeding.” These tracks have been accused of not giving a rats ass about horse racing as it has now become such a small percentage of the bottom line thanks to the expansion of gaming at the tracks in Pennsylvania. Horse racing appears to be a necessary evil there and other tracks throughout North America that have slots.
Personally, I find it disturbing that tracks with slots seem to have the highest takeouts in most cases. Tioga Downs is definitely doing the right thing by going the other way.
See also, Tioga Downs' Bold Move.
Monmouth To Cut Racing Days In Half While Tripling Purses
They actually think that giving out a million a day in purses will lead to doubling the handle. Not a chance!
A study done in 1998 concludes that doubling purses will cause handle to go up by 6%. Lets say the study is a little outdated because the environment has changed because a higher percentage of betting originate off track. And there is also the problem that this study doesn't take into account the effect of reducing dates, which will probably create a larger than normal live handle. OK, so we might see handle increase because of purse size in the neighbourhood of 15-20%. However, betting is down around 10% this year so far.
Saratoga is still going give out $750,000 a day in purses. This means that quality will be diluted. I can't see many California horsemen being lured to Monmouth, considering Saratoga didn't seem to lure many horses during current past meets.
Monmouth may hurt tracks like Woodbine, keeping a few Americans home and luring the odd good Canadian horse or two. But when you look at speed figures at Woodbine last year in general, even with their good purses, there wasn't much quality there to begin with. And Woodbine only averages a little more than $2 million a day in handle.
And how much quality is there in New Jersey bred races no matter what the purse is? There will be at least a couple a card on average.
Bettors don’t care if owners make more money, they generally are attracted to familiarity (something that is lost in horse racing because good horses retire too early), actual quality, and field size.
I prefer betting non winners or two or three races with a field size of 9-12 than a Stake Race where horses are coming from all over.
The biggest problem with this whole line of thinking by Monmouth is that it is just a way of living with a shrinking pie. This will not lead to growth. In fact, it is just adding fuel to the fire.
Less races equals less owners and trainers and horses. And this inevitably means less growth. The two biggest assets the horse racing industry has is its existing bettors, and horsemen (owners in this case). Horseplayers who last longer betting are more likely to expose others in their inner circle to horse racing. Owners, especially smaller partnerships, are more likely to bring friends and family to the track in hopes of getting their pictures taken. The more they race, the more likely they are to bring friends and family. The more friends and family go, the more likely it is that some of them become semi-regulars or even regulars.
I just don't see this Monmouth experiment working. They would have been better advised to reduce takeout, but they didn't confer with HANA, so they went this way instead.
HANA now has over 1500 members.
To join HANA (free to do so), click here.
TRACKMASTER has made their blog a lot more reader friendly. Check it out.
Triple Dead Heat has a couple of neat posts up. An interview with Centennial Farm's Brandon Boone on Queen's Plate hopeful, Captain Canuck, and a really nice photo essay on Windfield's Farm.
University of Arizona Race Track Industry Program student is doing a Master's Degree Thesis Project: "an attempt to develop a new model that takes into consideration this open market system. I am attempting to show that sound economic principles and techniques can be applied to modern pari-mutuel wagering to show the effects of altering the takeout rates."
Should be interesting. His blog will be updated with findings.
I don't do much on either Triple Crowns. But Triple Crown Chase, a blog run by a horse owner in New York, who races his horses mainly at Fort Erie, does. Check out Triple Crown Chase.
After 5 months, Quebec horseplayers can now go back to betting through HPI, because of the promise to run a short harness meet later this year.
Oh, and they are going with a ridiculous average takeout rate 23% takeout rate instead of a super-ultra ridiculous 30% takeout rate, which probably helped them get into the spot they found themselves in to begin with.
For Quebec horseplayer's sake, I hope many discovered there are plenty of ways to bet on horses and get a much much better deal than betting through HPI the past 5 months.
BTW, if you think thoroughbred takeout is high, which it is, takeout rates on harness racing B tracks in Ontario are sickening, oh, and they have slots...ahem.
Gas Soaked Slots Customer Causes Woodbine Slots To Miss A Night Of Revenues. You have to be crazy to play slots. I'm surprised this doesn't happen more often.
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