Obligatory Kentucky Derby Post

The Kentucky Derby, the most hyped 2 minutes in sports, goes off today, hosted by an organization that doesn't give a rats behind when it comes to growing horse racing. OK enough with the negativitytruth, lets move on to my analysis.

I have to stick to my handicapping guns. I don't like horses who race a mile and a quarter who have been off over 30 days. That line of thinking was much better 30 years ago before trainers started
racing horses like they are in Europe, and before such phenomenal training methods like hyperbaric chambers were used by "clean" trainers. But still, those who raced within 30 days have a distinct advantage over those who haven't.

So I am eliminating these horse from finishing 1-2: Revolutionary, Golden Soul, Mylute, Giant Finish, Lines Of Battle, Itsmyluckyday, Orb (yes, Orb), and Will Take Charge.

Now that I have the race down to 11 contenders, time to eliminate the slower ones, or the ones that appear farther off from a peak race. Those are Overanalyze, Frac Daddy, and Fallen Star.

So now we have eight, and to be honest, on figures, they are inseparable to the point that trip will mean just about everything. That being stated, value is key. That means eliminating Goldencents and Verrazano. Gun to head, I like the latter better, for what it is worth.

I Tweeted that Normandy Invasion will win in a romp, but that was before he ran off with his exercise jockey in the morning, so I've downgraded him to third. I am now leaning heavy on Palace Malice to win the Derby. The distance
doesn't seem to be a problem, and coming off an artificial surface might just give him a huge fitness edge, and he seemed to just be short in his last. I can't say that Pull The Pocket hasn't influenced my decision to rate Vyjack high, but he needs to put the pom poms down because the 19 post might make it very difficult for Vyjack to have the trip needed to win. Oxbow has had three 10 posts in a row and now gets the rail in the Derby. This could mean the shortest trip around the track for jockey Gary Stevens. Java's War, who beat my selection in the Blue Grass maybe peaked a race too soon, and his last to first effort including a terrible start has sucker's bet written all over it, but he just can't be dismissed today, and Charming Kitten just seems to be a fringe contender, but a perfect trip could mean roses just the same. He did show good turn speed in the Blue Grass.

10-20-5-2, that is my four horse box.

Go Palace Malice, but more importantly, it would be nice to see a horse compete for a chance at the Triple Crown in the Belmont this year.

Here is the 2013 Blue Grass Stakes:

Pathetically Weak Derby Field Will Probably Lead To An Exciting Race

I just finished handicapping the Kentucky Derby, and other than Uncle Mo (will he or won't he run), this field has the same proven ability of a typical Non Winners Of One Other Than at Woodbine. The field is so blah that Mine That Bird would look bettable in the 2011 Derby.

Uncle Mo towers over the field based on peak speed figures. His last race though makes him questionable, as his final speed number ranks right in with the rest of the herd.

I've altered the way I handicap big races, so my second choice (who might wind up being my first choice if Mo is scratched) would have been a horse I eliminated last year. Master Of Hounds pulled off a decent speed figure (compared to the rest of the Derby field) in his last race at Dubai (according to TrackMaster ratings). The thing is that he is racing on a 40 day layoff. He has never tried a dirt track, and at the time of this writing has no published workouts since November (is he even eligible to run?).

Taking away all the negatives, there is some good theory behind playing Master Of Hounds. American based horses ran horrible at Dubai. Maybe they couldn't handle racing without the meds that are allowed on this side of the ocean. With the proposed ban on race day meds possibly looming, I find a sense of inner satisfaction (it has something to do with provocation and chaos) to see this European invader come to America and use Lasix for the first time.

The horse is definitely bred for the distance, and has a good post and good jockey.

The other horses I will likely throw in are Nehro and Santiva. But handicapping this Derby is like throwing mud against the wall. Even with Mo in the race, I'm expecting to see gigantic exotic payoffs.


Handle Falls Another 7.5% In April

There were 7.5% less race days as well. Less isn't better. Purses were up slightly. Why? Mostly because of artificial increases in California as well as the addition of slot money to purses at Gulfstream. A few tracks did buck the trend with handle increases: Keeneland, Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs to name a few.

The bottom will come out of the purse increase in California soon though. There is no way they can maintain a purse hike with consistent 20% declines in handle since they imposed that foolish takeout hike at the beginning of the year, which was met by an unprecedented Horseplayer's Boycott. Even though, little has been mentioned lately about the Boycott, handle is still getting slaughtered which leads me to believe that the natural forces of the takeout increase (players not having as much money to churn, and getting turned off quicker) coupled with higher signal fees (which turns off anyone who gets rebates) has taken its toll. The longer California doesn't rescind the takeout hike, the harder it will be to win back the players who have gone elsewhere.


Trainers Are Biting Their Fingers Off Over The Proposed New Bill To Ban Race Day Medication and Performance Enhancing Drugs

Here is a copy of the bill. It is very strict and provides very little wiggle room for anyone who is looking to do anything but feed oats and hay and water.

I'm curious if this is adopted in the US, if Canada will follow suit. I would have to say that Woodbine would comply, even if they don't have to. Would the ORC automatically make the US rules Canadian rules? It is an interesting hypothetical. Canada could become a haven for real bleeders and outfits that don't want to play by the new proposed rules.


FORT ERIE KICKS OF THE 2011 SEASON ON SATURDAY

Norm Borg interviews new announcer Mike Dimoff as well as Elissa Blowe. Listen here.

Great to see they acquired the services of Jennifer Morrison to make the morning line. I doubt we will see Nick Gonzalez trained horses at 12-1 or higher anymore in the program.

Fort Erie is trying (in every way but the right way), however with a track takeouts of 26.3 on exactors and doubles still, I don't see them doing anything but swim against the tide this year.

Fort Erie will still do well with US Horseplayers who receive rebates, and may pick up some of the ex California crowd, but other than that I think they are destined for around a 5-10% decrease in handle this year. Something they can ill afford.

Horse racing is about gambling, not about music or cheap hot dogs.

Sending their patrons home broke quickly (that is what high takeouts do) doesn't bring them back very quick, nor does it the plant seeds of future Horseplayers.

Many tracks have added new low takeout gimmicks. Fort Erie needs to do at least that. But still, 26.3% on doubles and exactors????? What are they thinking? The betting public is way more in tune with track takeouts than ever before.

I wish them all the luck in the world. But I'm afraid that luck won't cut it.

RRRRROAR! I LIKE AMERICAN LION IN THE DERBY

The American Lion may have gone extinct 11,000 years ago, but I can see a comeback in the making tomorrow in the Kentucky Derby.

I have a hard time believing this horse is going to go off between 30-1 and 50-1. His speed figure going into this race is as high as any of the competition. The seven post is probably as good as it gets in a 20 horse race. He is bred for the Derby. According to Brisnet distance number, American Lion's 118 is the highest in the field.

In his last race, The Illinois Derby, he did the last eighth of a mile in 13 seconds into a 30 mile per hour wind. Granted his early pace was slower, but like I stated, the final time is relatively equal to or better than the entire Derby field's best efforts. He beat his nearest rival by almost 3 lengths, drawing clear in the end. There was another gap of 11 lengths to the third place finisher. I don't expect him on the lead, and his last race sets him up perfectly to be placed in a stalking position behind the horses that will be out gunning early.

He is one of three horses in the race who are one for one (undefeated) on a dirt strip, and he looks like he is improving with every effort.

There is a major concern, but this is true of every horse in the race, and that is flood warnings have been predicted for the area tomorrow. Lions aren't fond of water, but this American Lion has the second highest Brisnet "off track" number in the race.

To round out the exactor, I like Super Saver. Good speed numbers. I think his running style is a detriment for this race though (he should be very vulnerable in the stretch unless he inherits a big lead). He will probably go the least distance of any horse in the race, as he looks to have enough speed to comfortably get to the rail (where Calvin Borel loves to ride).

Other contenders include the probably favorite Lookin At Lucky (who is also one for one on the dirt). Noble's Promise has a shot too. He has been turned away three times by Lookin At Lucky, but the three hole should allow him to have a great trip, and he looks to be ready for a peak effort, and he'll be picking them off late. And it is hard to leave Awesome Act out of the exotics. He is bred for the distance and figures to be charging late as well.

Free DRF Past Performances For Kentucky Derby

Bettor Beware: Obligatory
If you bet on Churchill Downs through HPI or a Canadian track or OTB, be prepared to get royally ripped off if you hit a pick 3, pick 4, triactor, or superfecta. The track takeout at Churchill downs for these bets is 19%, but Woodbine pays them off as if the takeout is 27%. This means, for example, that a $2000 payoff at Churchill Downs will only get you a little over $1800 in Canada. Where does the rest of the money go? Woodbine keeps it. They are your partner on these wagers whether you like it or not. And they don't even put in their share of the bet to begin with.

Woodbine must have a code name for their customers: Ben Dover.

I'm hoping Woodbine eventually does the right thing, but so far they are turning a blind eye to public complaints.


Fort Erie Opens Tomorrow
Big fields. Looks like new Racing Secretary John Whitson has been doing his job properly so far. Francine Villeneuve is back. Jockey Krista Carignan is going to be busy. She has a mount in every race on the opening day card. Agent Scott Lane must be working overtime.

It is still a shame that new management hasn't addressed Fort Erie's embarrassingly high takeout. 26.2% on exactors and doubles is no way to keep people in the stands.

Speaking of track takeout. Tioga Downs season begins tomorrow as well. Tioga Downs is a track that gets it. After a few conversations with HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America), they decided to lower their takeout as much as they could. Their new takeout rates are 15% on WPS, 17% on exactors and doubles, and 21% on all other bets. They now have the lowest track takeout of any track in North America, and the same is true of their exactor takeout.

They have been getting excellent feedback for their efforts, and I expect to see a good increase in handle. It must be stated though, that the true effects of a takeout increase or decrease doesn't rely on the public noticing it and either gravitating to the track or avoiding the track, no, it is a long term scenario, where the gamblers psychology is either positively or negatively impacted over time. The lower the takeout, the longer the player lasts, the more bang they have for their buck, the more likely they are to return quickly and more often.

In conjunction with HANA, Tioga Downs will be putting out expert picks in a contest called The Pen and Micro-Chip Challenge. Who is going to pick more winners at Tioga? Seasoned pen and paper handicappers, or computer generated picks?
A special thanks goes out to Mike (the owner of Pace Advantage) for his contribution to the contest, and TrackMaster for supplying free computer generated selections.

BIG POOL ALERT
At Beulah Park tomorrow, there is a Pick 6 mandatory payout happening. Going in, there is over $445,000 in the pool. The beauty of it is that it is a 25 cent base bet. One can build a ticket of 2 horses a race for only $16 in total.

If you reside in the right jurisdiction, you can play the Beulah Fortune Pick 6 here (Tioga Downs is also on the menu). By post time of the third race, when the Pick 6 begins, the pool could be close to a million.


"The Kid" Gets His 15 Minutes Of Fame
14 year old handicapper from New Yawk who has a Youtube channel says his favorite track is Woodbine. I think he needs a lesson in track takeout:)

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I'm Just Putting It Out There

I took a little a lot of heat on the Pace Advantage Forum for making the following post:

If Mine That Bird gets a positive, it will be the best thing that could happen to horse racing.

So far the thread is into the 5th page and has had over 2400 views (I'm pretty sure that it counts repeat visitors as a new view).

I went on to explain why, but there are many commenters who still don't get my point:

Drugs are plaguing the sport and regulators have been very slow to fix it.
Hey, I know that a positive would hurt the game short term, but until drugs are out of the game, the game will be broken.

And again, I'm not inferring here that the horse will get a positive. The horse could have been on the best part of the track, the hardest part of the track, and saved the most ground, and the pace of the race helped him too.

Funny things happen in the slop. Again, I've already read many comments from people expecting a positive. I'm not expecting a positive, but wouldn't be shocked just the same.

There is a lot of speculation that at the very least Mine That Bird had something that is not tested for inside his bloodstream that made him move like a monster on Saturday. But it is 2009, and that is the state of horse racing.

Honestly, if I made a quick pick bet and Mine That Bird was on the ticket, I would have canceled the ticket, even if it was a superfecta, and Mine That Bird was in the four hole. His speed numbers weren't high enough going in to win a Non Winners other than Maiden or Claiming race.

He was the only gelding. Was it training in the New Mexico atmosphere that gave him an edge? Did the new Kentucky steroid rule turn the race into a complete crap shoot?

No denying that Calvin Bo-Rail was the best jockey for that particular course on that particular day by a country mile.

Jennifer Morrison reports on her blog that Chantal Sutherland (who rode the horse to victories last year) was considered until Bo-Rail became available. According to Down The Stretch Newspaper, the offer from Playboy that Sutherland refused would have gone up considerably if she just had a Derby mount, let alone won the Derby (which I think would have happened if she had the mount, as Sutherland seems to have a good eye for the track bias). So we can blame the trainer (or whoever made the decision on the jockey) for preventing Sutherland from being in Playboy, for now.

Hopeful Playboy won't make an offer to Calvin Keebler Borel. I know I won't be buying that issue.

Another thing that bugs me is anyone who claims that Mine That Bird is a Canadian. He isn't. Never was. Never will be. With all the money that is allotted to Ontario breds, it was a crying shame that he won the Sovereign Award, but he was better than all the Canadian breds and since he ran here at least three times, he qualified to win. He is a Kentucky bred. A US bred horse, nothing more, nothing less.

I will fairly add though that on his dam's side, especially his third dam, there is a lot of Canadian blood. Looks like a few Display Farm horses are at least related to the Bird.

PETA must be very upset that no horses died in the Derby this year. I'm surprised they don't go after the winner's name. I'm sure they aren't fans of throwing birds into mines to see if there is enough oxygen for humans.

This win by Mine That Bird is going to hurt the sales prices of high end horses for the foreseeable future. The low end horses may get a boost, as buyers see that they don't have to spend much to have a future millionaire. This win, coupled with Big Brown's win last year shows that it is much more prudent to spend a premium after a horse has established himself, at least somewhat. The Green Monkey days are gone.

Finally, it is my contention that after that 7 length Derby win, barring a positive, the Bird should be the favourite or 2nd choice at the very least in the Preakness. Many on Pace Advantage adamantly disagree with me on that. But I just can't see how he won't.

Peter from Family Guy agrees with me on the Preakness. Here is his tip:



KUDOS TO WOODBINE AND THE SCORE
It was nice to see Fort Erie on the Score on Sunday, instead of Belmont. I'm hoping nobody complains. Showing Fort Erie as the second track is the right thing to do in order to help promote horse racing in Ontario.

But it didn't help the betting unfortunately. Less than $400,000 was bet in total at Fort Erie on Sunday (I think the $35 million sales price is a tad too high now. Oh wait, I always thought that). I don't ever remember seeing such a low total in recent history.

I know what didn't help. Fort Erie stopped taking US dollar bets at the track. Patrons from the US have to convert to our funny money before they make a wager on track now. Is it any wonder that Fort Erie is big trouble. And by looking at those betting numbers, I hate to say it, but the end is near.

I know their high takeouts (they are the second worst in North America) are a huge turn off to many bettors, but they need to stop racing on Sunday, and only race when they are not up against any significant competition. Switch to Wednesdays. Let players tap out at the Fort before Woodbine races.

Obligatory Kentucky Derby Selections: How About West Side Bernie?

UPDATE: I Want Revenge scratched due to lameness in the left ankle. There are a lot of people who may be happy for Mullins right now.

Anytime you have 20 horses in a race, no matter how good the favorites look, it becomes a crap shoot.

So here is my mud against the wall analysis of the 2009 Kentucky Derby:

I Want Revenge is the best horse going into the race. But it is hard to play a favorite in a 20 horse race, especially a favourite ridden by Joe Talamo. I'm tainted after watching the series Jockeys on Animal Planet. He appears to be an up and coming jockey, but he also seems like the type who will do something to lose a big race like this one. I think the series might actually make Revenge a bit of an overlay, because I'm sure that I'm not alone.
Don't get me wrong. I'm still using the horse, I just think he won't win it.

In the recent Wood Memorial, the pace and flow and played in I Want Revenge's favour, but the dark horse that interests me from that race is West Side Bernie. He ran a lot further than the winner, and he might just be improving every race. Will he peak in the Derby? He'll be a nice price, and the one post may be just what is needed to save just enough ground to pull the upset.


Another couple of question marks in this year's Derby ran in the UAE Derby. Regal Ransom and Desert Party left the rest of the field in their dust. But just how good race that race? It is tough to put a speed figure on the race, but from the research I've done, this race could be rated higher than I Want Revenge's Gotham victory. What I don't like is both these horses have been off over a month. I don't like this angle, especially on cheap horses, but with allowance and stake horses it becomes less of a hurdle....it is still a hurdle.
Of the two, I like Desert Party who has attracted arguably the best dirt jockey in North America for the Derby, Ramon Dominguez. I think Regal Ransom will bounce at least a bit off that last one.


I really don't like Pioneer of the Isle. He seems to have better Poly breeding than dirt breeding, and he has only raced on the Poly. His speed figures aren't nearly as good as Revenge's. And the fact that Garret Gomez chose him over Dunkirk, makes me throw Dunkirk out as well. Dunkirk looks like the better horse on paper, but Gomez is no dummy.

Musket Man has only had one bad race, and it was a third. With his inside post, he may get a slice of the pie in the Derby with a good enough trip. He definitely can handle a dirt track.

Another horse that intrigues me is Chocolate Candy who race very wide off a bit of a layoff in his last race. He has never tried the dirt, but he looks like he'll enjoy the mile and a quarter on the dirt.

Join in the Dance may last longer than one might think, he looks like the horse that will get the lead for at least 6 furlongs. Of course, it depends on if the other horses let him breathe on the front, as to whether he lasts longer. This leads to another reason I like Desert Party. He looks like he'll be first to pounce. I think he won't be worse than 4th early on, and that he might get away with only being 3 wide in the first turn despite having the 19 post.

I've mentioned quite a few horses here, and it wouldn't surprise me if I haven't mentioned the 2009 winner. Ok, I'll mention a couple more. Friesan Fire just doesn't cut it for me. The horse has been away 50 days, and has never gone past a mile and sixteenth. Despite Larry Jones, I have to stay completely clear of this one. General Quarters ran a real good race in the Tampa Bay Derby, but his last two numbers have been on the slow side. A good Derby placing wouldn't be a shocker, but I'm afraid he has already peaked this year.

My top four

West Side Bernie
Desert Party
I Want Revenge
Musket Man


FORT ERIE OPENS
Pretty good sized fields (for Fort Erie) on Saturday. It looks like Mike Mehak has the best chance to be leading jockey after day one. He has a few live mounts, it appears. I think bugs will dominate this year, but Rui Pimentel looks like the early favourite to win the jockeys title.
Good to see Regina Sealock back in the saddle. Tampa Bay was a bit of a disaster for her, but she had very few mounts that stood a chance. At least she is winter raced. Watch out when the horses stretch out to two turns. She could be the best two turn jockey at the Fort this year.


A COUPLE OF STORIES THAT WON'T BRING HORSE RACING MORE FANS
One of the worst takes on horse racing ever written. This is what happens when mainstream media and horse racing meet up. And right now, there just isn't enough fans and bettors to stop this attitude. Comparing horse racing with cock fights is amateurish at best, and obviously the author has very limited knowledge when it comes to horse racing and the people involved.

Another article, not as brutal, as it factual and a lot more objective, though the terrible timing of it has to do with horse racing and MSM meeting for the week. This one has to do with horse racing from the viewpoint of a vet who is responsible to give lethal injections to suffering thoroughbreds.

The old saying that "there is no such thing as bad publicity," doesn't seem to be true when applied to horse racing.


One of HANA's main gripes with the industry seems to be attempting to sort out. One of HANA's goals is to have all signals available at all ADWs. TVG has a temporary deal to include Tracknet signals on their menu. This could have a lot to do with TVG being bought out by Betfair. Betfair's influence in North America may actually allow horse racing to finally become a growth industry again.

8 OHHA directors resign The OHHA is portrayed as protectors of drug violators. They are also very lucky that slots exist. Without them, harness racing would probably be dead in Ontario today, except for maybe Woodbine and Mohawk.
The Harness leaders should be kissing the ground that Standardbred racing is alive.


NBC racing analyst collapsed during the Kentucky Oaks broadcast today. He was taken to hospital after what appears to have been something like a seizure. He seems to be recovering at latest report, but will miss the Derby.


Eric Poteck, will be a guest this Sunday on the Fan 590's Inside The Lines, starting at 10:20 a.m. to talk the Canadian Horseplayers Advocacy Group, which he has founded (and is the only member of). His stance was unveiled earlier this week at the Standardbred Wagering Conference in Windsor.