I have been offering my advice to a few individuals over the years when it comes to claiming horses at Woodbine and Fort Erie. I'm right a lot, and I'm also wrong sometimes.
Today in the fifth at Woodbine, there is a horse who definitely looks like she a worth taking. I want to also mention that I wouldn't be writing this post if any of my connections were getting a claim slip ready.
She Runs On A Diesel. $20,000 race 5 Woodbine.
Pros
Ontario sired.
Lightly raced.
First race was an above average speed figure (for 20,000 maiden fillies) against a slight speed bias. The time of the race was good for the day.
Galloped out great. Watch the replay at HPI May 15th race 9 or look her up by name at Cal Racing. She was last after around half a furlong, so she is easy to find.
Going two turn after a five furlong debut. This means she should be physically OK at least, and because she is radically changing distances, she may come up short and save the condition which means more potential money for a new owner. There are at least four horses who can get the distance in, and beat her just on conditioning today.
Workout pattern doesn't show any breaks before her first race and workouts have been slightly above average.
Very well bred on the dam side: she is out of a half to Devil His Due (who made close to $4 million). This should give her residual dam value, even though breeding game is crap right now. There has been no mention of this fact in Bannon's Journal for the horse's first two races:
A 3 year old filly that can go long is the best type of horse to own for upside. Ontario sired maiden and nw2 run for $62,000+ purses.
Cons
Trainer is high percentage this year (though he usually is an average trainer). Why is she running so low after the first race? Owner may just want to win. Does the owner know her breeding on the dam side?
Dam only threw one other horse (she looks to have a problem foaling) who was unraced, but produced a winner. Is she worth $20,000 as a dam prospect?
$20,000 is a big risk for small outfits. Though she'll probably be able to clean up at Fort Erie if she goes down hill from that first race, if she can run again after today that is:)
There may be a shake for her. If more than a couple of people see the same things, these type of obvious claims usually wind up to be losing propositions.
Sire is nondescript, but then again most Ontario sires are. The money is great if she improves even in the slightest.
If I was independently wealthy, I certainly would take a shot on her. Of course, the trainer would have to give her a good look before dropping the slip (no interest in the breeding game right now). If she has the looks of a bad knee or a bow, etc., rip the slip up, they'll be others to claim.
BELMONT PREDICTION
Lots of horses who are being asked to go a mile and a half without racing for at least 5 weeks. I don't like that angle. This fact makes the race Mine That Bird's to lose. If he shows up, he wins. Very simple. I like him with Preakness surprise horse Flying Private to coast into second. And I'll stick to Preakness graduates for the triactor and throw in long shot Luv Gov.
Free PDF's from TrackMaster
Ajax Downs opens up tomorrow. They have revamped their web site. If you decide to check out the site, cover your ears.
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