18 May 2012

Horse Racing Sure Could Use Another, But It Probably Won't Happen

Horse racing has had nothing but bad press this year.  From the cancellation of Luck to the New York Time articles and a lot of other stuff in between.  The industry desperately needs a horse who has a shot to win the Triple Crown.  If I'll Have Another wins the Preakness, the interest in the Belmont and most importantly the TV viewers, will be four or five times higher than a Belmont with no Triple Crown hopeful.

The problem is that, no matter how much I want to see I'll Have Another win, it just doesn't look like it will be in the cards.

I'll Have Another had a relatively easy trip, and the wire came at a time when it was his turn to be in the lead.  Sure, he can improve off this race, but chasing Bodemeister this time around will probably lead to less desirable results, and it appears that strategically I'll Have Another has no choice but to think chaser.

Bodemeister on the other hand is a very good horse but I think he has Facebook IPO written all over him.  Horses leading against the same competition in a previous race that was longer are often a sucker's bet when cutting back.  Horses that ran like this in drill like fashion are very likely to bounce on top of that.  And historically, the Preakness does not favor the horse who will be leading at the head of the stretch.

It doesn't matter that Bodemeister is the only speed going into the race, I think he'll be lucky to hang on for third or fourth.

So who do I like?  How about who do I love?  CREATIVE CAUSE, that is who.  He has a horrible trip in the Derby and if any horse appears that it will improve off the Derby it is this one.   He beat Bodemeister three starts back, with a very good speed figure, and I think he will show his superiority again in the Preakness.  And the distance has CREATIVE CAUSE written all over it.  I think it is just a matter of how much he wins by.

If speed comes back, Went The Day Well could easily complete the exactor, with I'll Have Another and a tired Bodemeister fighting it out for third and fourth.


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3 comments:

Anonymous said...

IHA should win the Belmont easily....the field is going to be weak.

Railbirdbrad said...

When was the last horse that won at Belmont from Pimlico racetrack.dont remeber,California horses are bombing at Belmont this yearand strike three is there has been far better horses in this position that have failed, time for a dose of reality the Triple Crown will never be captured again.

Media Mentions said...

Speaking of horse racing, this season seems to have found a new victim of the Triple Crown Jinx: I’d love to see how the whole thing unwinds, but at this point one can only hope everything goes well. In any event, here’s a cool related story I was reading just before I stumbled onto your page: hope you find it as interesting as I did: http://www.pressdisplay.com/pressdisplay/showlink.aspx?bookmarkid=DAT0KK5NZPN6&preview=article&linkid=1541ea90-883f-4b03-8414-c4d732ab1e5e&pdaffid=ZVFwBG5jk4Kvl9OaBJc5%2bg%3d%3d. Cheers!