Debates, Controversy Good For Horse Racing

Fact: Mike Smith made a decision to open up the rail in the Belmont Stakes yesterday aboard Paynter, giving Union Rags enough room to win the race. The margin was so small that it is doubtful that Union Rags would have won if he had to swing out instead. Lots of reasons Smith may have elected to come out. Maybe he wanted to slightly force the outside horses to do more work and get slightly intimidated. Maybe he thought that he would rather be on the outside of Union Rags instead of on the inside of him. Maybe the horse was getting out slightly forcing his decision.

You know what? This is what makes horse racing, or any other form of competition. What ifs. They are just as important to the game itself as the actual event itself. The worst thing is when you have a major event and nobody has anything to say about it. The more controversy, the more that will be spoken and written about it, in most cases, and horse racing desperately needs more and more people talking about it.

The leave Mike Smith alone crowd has every right to their opinion, blah blah blah great jockey blah blah blah, but it does horse racing no good in the long run if too many took that attitude. Kind of like if an interception is thrown by a great quarterback in the Super Bowl, while another receiver was wide open. No QB would escape scrutiny based on him being a future Hall of Fame member and overall nice guy.

Controversy from decision making on and off the field is huge business when it comes to most pro sports. From pre game NFL analysis to post game analysis, MLB managerial decisions, etc., there is plenty to talk about, and the more successful a game is, the more people talk after the game.

Unfortunately for horse racing, it has another form of self inflicted controversies (which really is on par with calling evolution controversial) that stem from the ridiculous overuse of drugs. This is another story. Major league sports, with stringent drug policies and fines have eradicated drugs from the arm chair quarterback repertoire, but in horse racing it is too much of the story. The first thing that naturally comes to mind when any trainer gets hot is "he must have found something that isn't being tested for." The only controversy is whether the trainer is getting a little lucky or if he has found something. In pro sports, streaks create good buzz: The player has confidence maybe, the player is on a roll thanks to changes made by the coaching staff, the player finally has the game figured out, but you never hear, the player must be milk shaking before the game anymore.

When it comes to drugs, I think enough people are fed up. I think that keeping the Doug O'Neill controversy alive is needed to help fix horse racing. Unfortunately, it is not that far fetched to believe I'll Have Another's destiny to scratch was determined when the 72 hour detention barn was announced. The guy has got nailed with 4 milk shake violations in the past. One might be forgivable, but 4 is no fluke. It tells me that he is one to throw in the kitchen sink using the best scientific data available in order to try to avoid positives, but really goes to the limit. With every horse? Who knows?

When the 72 hour detention barn was announced, I automatically thought there is no way I'll Have Another will win, though I didn't think he wouldn't race. As for the injury, sure it could be real, but it could have been an ongoing issue that O'Neill was dealing with, given the ability to use the proper concoctions. The fact is that the actual records will most probably never come out, including any x-rays now or that were done previously. There is also conflicting reports on when the injury happened. And trust me, I'm not a conspiracy theorist nutjob. If this played out the same way I'm thinking it did on the show Luck, it would have been completely buyable.

My opinion is that the connections were scared that I'll Have Another would have finished up the track, and the injury would have had zero to do with it. Again, there is the possibility that the horse really was sound for the first two Triple Crown starts and he really did injure himself. But knowing what I know about the game, I'll stick to my theory, and that is unfortunate for the game itself.

The fact that some people might believe I'm over the top here is fine. And even if I'm wrong, which might be very likely, I think it is important to keep the controversy alive.

Horse Racing Sure Could Use Another, But It Probably Won't Happen

Horse racing has had nothing but bad press this year.  From the cancellation of Luck to the New York Time articles and a lot of other stuff in between.  The industry desperately needs a horse who has a shot to win the Triple Crown.  If I'll Have Another wins the Preakness, the interest in the Belmont and most importantly the TV viewers, will be four or five times higher than a Belmont with no Triple Crown hopeful.

The problem is that, no matter how much I want to see I'll Have Another win, it just doesn't look like it will be in the cards.

I'll Have Another had a relatively easy trip, and the wire came at a time when it was his turn to be in the lead.  Sure, he can improve off this race, but chasing Bodemeister this time around will probably lead to less desirable results, and it appears that strategically I'll Have Another has no choice but to think chaser.

Bodemeister on the other hand is a very good horse but I think he has Facebook IPO written all over him.  Horses leading against the same competition in a previous race that was longer are often a sucker's bet when cutting back.  Horses that ran like this in drill like fashion are very likely to bounce on top of that.  And historically, the Preakness does not favor the horse who will be leading at the head of the stretch.

It doesn't matter that Bodemeister is the only speed going into the race, I think he'll be lucky to hang on for third or fourth.

So who do I like?  How about who do I love?  CREATIVE CAUSE, that is who.  He has a horrible trip in the Derby and if any horse appears that it will improve off the Derby it is this one.   He beat Bodemeister three starts back, with a very good speed figure, and I think he will show his superiority again in the Preakness.  And the distance has CREATIVE CAUSE written all over it.  I think it is just a matter of how much he wins by.

If speed comes back, Went The Day Well could easily complete the exactor, with I'll Have Another and a tired Bodemeister fighting it out for third and fourth.


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