New Whipping Rules Coming To Ontario September 1st
"Whips will have to be be cushioned, be no more than 30 inches in length, and have a padded noise-making "popper."......................... Use of a non-approved whip will lead to the disqualification of the horse..................a horse cannot be hit with the whip more than three times in a row without being given time to respond, and the whip is not to be used when a horse is not visibly responding or is not in contention for a meaningful position."
***********************************************************
This appears to have major implications when handicapping horses who were not in contention. Speed figure players may need to add a few lengths to horses well beaten, or discard the race entirely because the riders will now wrap up on them early. Some jockeys do this already, but it might be more of a factor now.
Frank Stronach Could Be In Deep Doo Doo
The Magna creditors are claiming: "MI Developments prevented Magna Entertainment from selling assets that might have allowed it to successfully restructure." And the intent was apparently sinister on Stronach's behalf. He purposely put Magna into the bankruptcy position in order to benefit himself by doing many "sham" transactions.
If these allegations are proven, I can see possible jail time being pursued as well. The Madoff scandal has put market regulators on high alert, and they don't mind taking the odd big guy down.
Jockey Norberto Arroyo charged with possession with the intent to sell cocaine
Arroya is currently 2 for 56 at Saratoga. The purses are good, and his mounts have earned over $166k; no reason for him to have a second job.
Baymount Enters Into Letter Of Intent On The New Quinte Track
The new proposed partner is a subsidiary of the Kilmer Group which has a significant ownership stake in the Toronto Maple Leafs and Toronto Raptors.
Nick Gonzalez is hotter than a Playboy centerfold on the planet Mercury. Six consecutive winners at Fort Erie including a natural hat trick yesterday as he won the 4th, 5th and 6th. I picked all three as first choices, so I will leave speculation that Gonzalez is using some special concoction to jealous horsemen and maybe the ORC.
Ray Paulick Vents Against Equibase
One of HANA's issues is free information for bettors. I'm don't want to solely blame Equibase though. This is an industry problem and it illustrates just how dysfunctional and anti-player the industry is and always has been. Equibase should be subsidized by the racetracks in a way that the information becomes free. Everything from lifetime charts to daily past performances to breeding records. Free info will only attract more players and owners, etc., and this might just result in growth.
Paulick makes a great point comparing the free information available for every other sport out there. You can get just about any player stat for free by doing just a quick web search or go to sites like NBA.com or NFL.com, etc.
Just a quick note. Equibase does give out some good free info. I go there every day when I do my daily charting of the tracks that I do track variants for.
Bill Finley Says That Lagging Odds Are Unacceptable
He is preaching to the choir.
"As long as the odds continue to change during races, people have a right to be suspicious....close when the first horse is loaded into the gate. It usually takes upward of a minute to load an entire field, normally enough time for every bet made everywhere to funnel its way into the system.....Horseplayers aren't stupid. They will quickly figure out that they have to get their bets in in time and will adjust accordingly."
Showing posts with label Baymount. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Baymount. Show all posts
13 March 2009
Fort Erie 2009 Season Saved By A Band-Aid Solution
The following couple of videos basically sum up the deal. The main speaker is Jim Thibert of the EDTC of Fort Erie.
Please excuse the shakiness. I was standing while holding a digital camera and I either had too much coffee or not enough coffee (I'm not sure how that works anymore).
A summary of the deal (Letter Of Intent) is as follows:
The EDTC offered $35 million ($33 million of which they don't have) to purchase Fort Erie race track.
A non refundable deposit of $2.25 million was handed over to Nordic Gaming. $1.5 million came from the $2 million the government foolishly handed over to the EDTC last year to do due diligence on the $300 million dollar smoke and mirrors expansion project. They managed to blow half a million of it in almost no time.
$500,000 came from the HBPA and $250,000 came from the Town of Fort Erie (lets put it this way, no live racing most likely means no slots which means no $1 million the town gets from slot revenues).
Nordic Gaming is willing to take back a mortgage on the remaining $32.75 million if the deal actually happens, as long as the mortgage is guaranteed by the Government of Ontario.
The Letter of Intent is good for 90 days. In other words, the EDTC has 90 days to convince the government that they can 1) Justify the $35 million price tag (LOL), and 2) Show that they can make mortgage payments while not losing money each year on top of that (something Nordic claims they haven't been able to do for the last 3 years).
At the end of the 90 days, if the mortgage can't be guaranteed, the deal is over, but Nordic must still race to the end of October. In return, they get a free $2.25 million which is probably closer to the $3-4 million in losses they are claiming to lose of late each year.
In other words, Nordic caved because they probably don't lose $3-4 million a year, and they knew that no racing means no slots and that if they lose their racing license, they would have a very hard time getting it back. In other words, the joint would be very close to worthless.
Hats off to Sue Leslie especially, of the Ontario HBPA, for working diligently on getting this project together, and Jim Thibert for at least being whimsical enough to come up with this deal in the first place. It appears that the main politicians Kim Craitor and Tim Hudak did next to nothing really to make this particular deal happen, but somehow I expect them to take a lot of credit.
Meanwhile, the EDTC which has claimed from day one that they don't understand racing very much, though Thibert said his knowledge has increased of late, has hired a consultant firm to look at the Fort Erie books in detail and to make recommendations going forward.
He emphasized that he is not accepting tenders for the consulting firm, so look for nepotism to weigh in heavily in the firm he decided to go with. This isn't good, because what they need right now is a consulting firm that understands both horse racing and gambling, and even the gambler's psyche. Horsemen collectively don't understand the bettor, or that without the bettor there is no business (and yes, bettors can and do go elsewhere). And most business execs have no idea in regard to what makes today's gambler tick.
Thibert did say that it was going to cost a lot for the consulting (where is the money coming from?).
They will be looking to piece off a lot of the unused property to help pay the mortgage, which in the end means they will have less land and probably owe about the same amount more or less when the dust lands.
They are still banking on "lending" Woodbine 200 slots, while expect the OLG to change their payment schedule on those slots (where the track/horsemen, the OLG and Woodbine get 1/3 of the net each. Right now, the OLG gets around 77% of the net.). They don't even know if Woodbine would go for the deal, and extra slots only means more potential money if a patron actually leaves the slots disillusion that he or she couldn't lose money because every machine was taken. More slots for Woodbine, most likely doesn't mean that the bottom line of money lost by customers would increase, even if the slots are at full capacity. People stay and lose what they were going to lose regardless of capacity in most cases. More slots doesn't means more money lost by customers.
In fact, casino gamblers are more eager to play if it looks like a machine to sit at or a table to sit at looks hard to come by.
If the OLG is going to make concessions, the realistic one is to increase the percentages Fort Erie gets from 20% to 30-35%. In return, Fort Erie can easily give up 4-500 machines. Again, a separate case can be made for Fort Erie being Ontario's only other thoroughbred track.
Bottom line, the track isn't worth $35 million. I had to laugh when Thibert calls himself a businessman, and also stated that in these rough economic time, it is a good time to buy.
A real businessman takes advantage of these times. Sure it is a good time to buy....IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT! You don't put an offer on the table to satisfy the maximum a seller is willing to accept.
With more tracks bound to come on the market thanks to the Stronach fiasco, Fort Erie is worth even less today than it was a few weeks ago.
The business allegedly loses $3-4 million a year, and the land isn't worth very much at all.....maybe $35,000 an acre on average TOPS (which means the land is worth $12 million if the right buyers came along). Fort Erie can't even half fill an indoor mall with businesses, and I don't see demand going up in the near future.
In fact, a lower amount was allegedly accepted by Nordic years earlier when the business was breaking even. But the deal fell through because Nordic wasn't doing as well as they originally stated they were doing.
So what will happen?
90 days will come and go. Nordic will get much of the money they originally looked to extort in the first place. At that time, new offers will be allowed to come in for the track. It is to everyone's best interest that this deal doesn't happen, even if the EDTC were to come back in again, the amount offered should be at least cut in half.
The horsemen and the tracks future though will be in doubt for 2010 and beyond, until Nordic decides to sell the track for a fair price.
Fields will be short this year, and since Fort Erie's track takeouts are astronomical, I don't see very much betting on their product. As a representative of HANA (a horseplayers group that collectively puts through between $50-100 million plus a year in handle), I wouldn't even try to convince the membership to make even one bet at Fort Erie, unless it was done at a rebate shop that gave considerable rewards. Fort Erie ranks 55th out of 56 tracks by HANA. Only Assiniboia Downs rated lower when it comes to bettor friendly tracks. Check out Fort Erie's track takeout and compare with other tracks here.
Fort Erie needs to get rid of allowance races so that they can give more money to lower claimers, so that owners have a chance to make money or at least break even. If a horse is worth over $14,000, send it to Woodbine to race and see if you are right.
They also need to cut track takeout, so that gamblers will last longer, and perhaps start spending more time handicapping and coming to the track, even bringing friends and family.
They also need their own ADW, so that they can market racing to their home market of 400,000 people. In the real world, there has been a shift which will not change, bigger bettors are betting mostly from home.
See also, Fort Erie Back At The Starting Gate, Nordic's press release, Odds Still Unclear on Fort Erie's Survival, Fort Erie Racetrack Survives Again, and Racing To Continue at Fort Erie.
Article on Derby hopeful Patena.
Bill to prevent takeout increase in New York passes. Another small victory for HANA.
Baymount secures agreement with Belleville horsemen
It is possible that Belleville will run summer racing this year at the old track while the new one is set to open next year.
Horseplayers speak with their wallets. Thank you Standardbred Canada for acknowledging HANA.
Bettors Wanted For Wagering Conference Held In Windsor
Please excuse the shakiness. I was standing while holding a digital camera and I either had too much coffee or not enough coffee (I'm not sure how that works anymore).
A summary of the deal (Letter Of Intent) is as follows:
The EDTC offered $35 million ($33 million of which they don't have) to purchase Fort Erie race track.
A non refundable deposit of $2.25 million was handed over to Nordic Gaming. $1.5 million came from the $2 million the government foolishly handed over to the EDTC last year to do due diligence on the $300 million dollar smoke and mirrors expansion project. They managed to blow half a million of it in almost no time.
$500,000 came from the HBPA and $250,000 came from the Town of Fort Erie (lets put it this way, no live racing most likely means no slots which means no $1 million the town gets from slot revenues).
Nordic Gaming is willing to take back a mortgage on the remaining $32.75 million if the deal actually happens, as long as the mortgage is guaranteed by the Government of Ontario.
The Letter of Intent is good for 90 days. In other words, the EDTC has 90 days to convince the government that they can 1) Justify the $35 million price tag (LOL), and 2) Show that they can make mortgage payments while not losing money each year on top of that (something Nordic claims they haven't been able to do for the last 3 years).
At the end of the 90 days, if the mortgage can't be guaranteed, the deal is over, but Nordic must still race to the end of October. In return, they get a free $2.25 million which is probably closer to the $3-4 million in losses they are claiming to lose of late each year.
In other words, Nordic caved because they probably don't lose $3-4 million a year, and they knew that no racing means no slots and that if they lose their racing license, they would have a very hard time getting it back. In other words, the joint would be very close to worthless.
Hats off to Sue Leslie especially, of the Ontario HBPA, for working diligently on getting this project together, and Jim Thibert for at least being whimsical enough to come up with this deal in the first place. It appears that the main politicians Kim Craitor and Tim Hudak did next to nothing really to make this particular deal happen, but somehow I expect them to take a lot of credit.
Meanwhile, the EDTC which has claimed from day one that they don't understand racing very much, though Thibert said his knowledge has increased of late, has hired a consultant firm to look at the Fort Erie books in detail and to make recommendations going forward.
He emphasized that he is not accepting tenders for the consulting firm, so look for nepotism to weigh in heavily in the firm he decided to go with. This isn't good, because what they need right now is a consulting firm that understands both horse racing and gambling, and even the gambler's psyche. Horsemen collectively don't understand the bettor, or that without the bettor there is no business (and yes, bettors can and do go elsewhere). And most business execs have no idea in regard to what makes today's gambler tick.
Thibert did say that it was going to cost a lot for the consulting (where is the money coming from?).
They will be looking to piece off a lot of the unused property to help pay the mortgage, which in the end means they will have less land and probably owe about the same amount more or less when the dust lands.
They are still banking on "lending" Woodbine 200 slots, while expect the OLG to change their payment schedule on those slots (where the track/horsemen, the OLG and Woodbine get 1/3 of the net each. Right now, the OLG gets around 77% of the net.). They don't even know if Woodbine would go for the deal, and extra slots only means more potential money if a patron actually leaves the slots disillusion that he or she couldn't lose money because every machine was taken. More slots for Woodbine, most likely doesn't mean that the bottom line of money lost by customers would increase, even if the slots are at full capacity. People stay and lose what they were going to lose regardless of capacity in most cases. More slots doesn't means more money lost by customers.
In fact, casino gamblers are more eager to play if it looks like a machine to sit at or a table to sit at looks hard to come by.
If the OLG is going to make concessions, the realistic one is to increase the percentages Fort Erie gets from 20% to 30-35%. In return, Fort Erie can easily give up 4-500 machines. Again, a separate case can be made for Fort Erie being Ontario's only other thoroughbred track.
Bottom line, the track isn't worth $35 million. I had to laugh when Thibert calls himself a businessman, and also stated that in these rough economic time, it is a good time to buy.
A real businessman takes advantage of these times. Sure it is a good time to buy....IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT! You don't put an offer on the table to satisfy the maximum a seller is willing to accept.
With more tracks bound to come on the market thanks to the Stronach fiasco, Fort Erie is worth even less today than it was a few weeks ago.
The business allegedly loses $3-4 million a year, and the land isn't worth very much at all.....maybe $35,000 an acre on average TOPS (which means the land is worth $12 million if the right buyers came along). Fort Erie can't even half fill an indoor mall with businesses, and I don't see demand going up in the near future.
In fact, a lower amount was allegedly accepted by Nordic years earlier when the business was breaking even. But the deal fell through because Nordic wasn't doing as well as they originally stated they were doing.
So what will happen?
90 days will come and go. Nordic will get much of the money they originally looked to extort in the first place. At that time, new offers will be allowed to come in for the track. It is to everyone's best interest that this deal doesn't happen, even if the EDTC were to come back in again, the amount offered should be at least cut in half.
The horsemen and the tracks future though will be in doubt for 2010 and beyond, until Nordic decides to sell the track for a fair price.
Fields will be short this year, and since Fort Erie's track takeouts are astronomical, I don't see very much betting on their product. As a representative of HANA (a horseplayers group that collectively puts through between $50-100 million plus a year in handle), I wouldn't even try to convince the membership to make even one bet at Fort Erie, unless it was done at a rebate shop that gave considerable rewards. Fort Erie ranks 55th out of 56 tracks by HANA. Only Assiniboia Downs rated lower when it comes to bettor friendly tracks. Check out Fort Erie's track takeout and compare with other tracks here.
Fort Erie needs to get rid of allowance races so that they can give more money to lower claimers, so that owners have a chance to make money or at least break even. If a horse is worth over $14,000, send it to Woodbine to race and see if you are right.
They also need to cut track takeout, so that gamblers will last longer, and perhaps start spending more time handicapping and coming to the track, even bringing friends and family.
They also need their own ADW, so that they can market racing to their home market of 400,000 people. In the real world, there has been a shift which will not change, bigger bettors are betting mostly from home.
See also, Fort Erie Back At The Starting Gate, Nordic's press release, Odds Still Unclear on Fort Erie's Survival, Fort Erie Racetrack Survives Again, and Racing To Continue at Fort Erie.
Article on Derby hopeful Patena.
Bill to prevent takeout increase in New York passes. Another small victory for HANA.
Baymount secures agreement with Belleville horsemen
It is possible that Belleville will run summer racing this year at the old track while the new one is set to open next year.
Horseplayers speak with their wallets. Thank you Standardbred Canada for acknowledging HANA.
Bettors Wanted For Wagering Conference Held In Windsor
5 March 2009
Terrible Chain Reaction At Aqueduct Yesterday: Looks Worse Than It Was
Another chain reaction that wiped out most of the field occurred yesterday at Aqueduct in the second race. Only two of seven horses in the field wound up crossing the wires for parimutuel purposes, which mirrors what happened in a harness race at Woodbine Monday night (see my last post).
Private Details, a three year old filly broke her left front cannon bone at the quarter pole, and landed on her side causing the chain reaction. Amazingly, only one jockey was taken to the hospital (Eddie Castro), and he ended up with a bruised shoulder. Like I said, it looks way worse than it was:
I hate looking at these things. I can only watch them once, and barely once. But most people want to see these things at least once. Morbid curiosity perhaps? The same reason many people watch stock car races? I took psychology in university, but I forget why we seem to need to look at this stuff.
As for me posting it, I had second and third thoughts about it. This definitely doesn't do the sport much good, even though there is an old saying that any advertising is good advertising. The Eight Belles tragedy proves that statement wrong.
I'll admit, I want this blog to be read. I don't make much money on the blog, but I do want my main message about dropping takeout and growing the game to read by as many people as humanly possible. This is the main reason I decided to post the video. It is the main reason I set up a new Youtube Channel as well.
In fact, by putting up the harness accident from Monday night, I have so far received over 10,000 hits at Youtube. I'm not thrilled with many of the comments that criticize horse racing for being cruel, but it is better to know what the industry is up against so that it can be dealt with.
Let me lighten things up a bit. I did not see this hilarious commercial/promo for the series Jockeys until I found it doing a search on Youtube. It is a must see for anyone who handicaps horse racing:
It definitely doesn't take away anything from the intimidation that a newbie watching the video might have when it comes to thinking about giving horse racing a chance:)
It looks like Magna Entertainment will be entering Chapter 11 bankruptcy either today or tomorrow. Read all about it at the Paulick Report. UPDATE: Magna Entertainment Files Chapter 11
NY Lawmakers Trying To Prevent Track Takeout Increase
I don't want to beat my chest too hard, but I'm sure HANA has had some sort of influence in this decision, though the reasons cited makes sense as well. I still think the law will go through though.
February handle down 11%. The game is dying, but the racing execs are starting to get it I think. They know they have to change the pricing of betting, but will they, and is it too late.
Pull The Pocket busts some handicapping myths. Good riders waiting around for a late mount doesn't mean much.
Baymount Inc. provides fiscal update Hotel and water park on the way?
Private Details, a three year old filly broke her left front cannon bone at the quarter pole, and landed on her side causing the chain reaction. Amazingly, only one jockey was taken to the hospital (Eddie Castro), and he ended up with a bruised shoulder. Like I said, it looks way worse than it was:
I hate looking at these things. I can only watch them once, and barely once. But most people want to see these things at least once. Morbid curiosity perhaps? The same reason many people watch stock car races? I took psychology in university, but I forget why we seem to need to look at this stuff.
As for me posting it, I had second and third thoughts about it. This definitely doesn't do the sport much good, even though there is an old saying that any advertising is good advertising. The Eight Belles tragedy proves that statement wrong.
I'll admit, I want this blog to be read. I don't make much money on the blog, but I do want my main message about dropping takeout and growing the game to read by as many people as humanly possible. This is the main reason I decided to post the video. It is the main reason I set up a new Youtube Channel as well.
In fact, by putting up the harness accident from Monday night, I have so far received over 10,000 hits at Youtube. I'm not thrilled with many of the comments that criticize horse racing for being cruel, but it is better to know what the industry is up against so that it can be dealt with.
Let me lighten things up a bit. I did not see this hilarious commercial/promo for the series Jockeys until I found it doing a search on Youtube. It is a must see for anyone who handicaps horse racing:
It definitely doesn't take away anything from the intimidation that a newbie watching the video might have when it comes to thinking about giving horse racing a chance:)
It looks like Magna Entertainment will be entering Chapter 11 bankruptcy either today or tomorrow. Read all about it at the Paulick Report. UPDATE: Magna Entertainment Files Chapter 11
NY Lawmakers Trying To Prevent Track Takeout Increase
I don't want to beat my chest too hard, but I'm sure HANA has had some sort of influence in this decision, though the reasons cited makes sense as well. I still think the law will go through though.
February handle down 11%. The game is dying, but the racing execs are starting to get it I think. They know they have to change the pricing of betting, but will they, and is it too late.
Pull The Pocket busts some handicapping myths. Good riders waiting around for a late mount doesn't mean much.
Baymount Inc. provides fiscal update Hotel and water park on the way?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)