Almost 5 years ago I wrote a blog piece Could A National Lottery Help Racing Grow? That post was made before the Ontario Liberal government pulled the plug on the Slots At Racetrack partnership. It was evident back then that horse racing was not growing and that there was a need to attract new gamblers with new money. Now, in Ontario, the situation is even more dire. Now the government has magically changed a true partnership into a true subsidy that could vanish at any time, horse racing needs to attract as many new players as possible. One promise made by the new Premier is to integrate the OLG and Ontario horse racing, and this paves the way for horse racing lottery bets.
An announcement was made yesterday that a company called EquiLottery has the software to enable horse racing lotteries. A Google search of OLG EquiLottery makes me believe that Ontario will be introducing this soon. Check this PDF found in the search out.
Here is how it works: Lottery player buys a $2 quick pick for a specified wager on that given day. It could be a triactor, superfecta, Hi-5, Pick 6, etc. The wager type can change each day according to the new release. $1 is put directly into the pool. The other $1 goes towards the lottery (with the lottery/administrators keeping 80 cents of that). So lets use a trifecta for the sake of simplicity. The player gets a quick pick ticket in a 10 horse race of 5-2-8 at a cost of $2. A $1 5-2-8 ticket winds up being bought at the track as soon as the lottery ticket is purchased. This means the track retains a takeout of 25 cents (or 12.5% of the total cost of the ticket) to share between the track and horsemen. The lottery portion only pays out 10% of the total cost of the ticket, split among the winners. So in theory, the lottery player is buying a triactor ticket with a 52.5% takeout. One has to wonder how long it will take for lottery players to clue in that if they bought the $2 straight ticket directly at the track, their payoff would be over 50% higher on average (all things being equal, which they aren't...I'll explain later below). In the age of the internet, this scheme will not work very well and most likely dry out in short order even if it is initially successful.
Don't get me wrong, I want to see it work, and there is a lot of stupid money out there when it comes to playing the lottery in Ontario. Pro-Line for example, does around $250 million in handle a year ($700,000 a day) and has a collective takeout of 40%. You basically have to be an idiot to play it. But they get away with it because their most popular bet is a three team parlay, where the parlay includes a tie option. This is something that is unique so payoffs can't readily be compared with what bookies pay. A normal three team parlay has a takeout of 12.5% if three teams are picked randomly with a bookie. It is actually a little lower than that because odds are not a perfect science, and the handicapper can and does take advantage of point spread inefficiencies.
If the EquiLottery were to work as planned, it would be great for the host track because bettors from all over will know there is a good percentage of dummy money in the pool. In worst case scenarios, it will mean a takeout free type or even takeout positive wager that value players will be all over, adding large amounts of handle that normally wouldn't be in that pool. And generally when handicappers check out one race or a series of races, they normally make other bets on the card as well.
The Math
Lets use the triactor example. 10 horse race (720 combinations). Lets say 100,000 $2 quick picks are purchased. Assuming random equal distribution there will be about 139 winners. Lets also assume that the average $1 winning ticket pays 60% of the total combinations (I believe that is close to the way it really is). So the average payoff for a $1 triactor in a 10 horse race is around $430. This means that on average, the winning lottery player will get back $430 plus $143.88 ($20,000 from the lottery portion divided by 139 winners). So instead of getting back $860 had the lottery player bought a $2 parimutuel ticket, the "sucker" only gets back $573 instead. That is quite a price to pay for the convenience of buying a ticket at a lottery kiosk versus the convenience of betting the same thing from home and actually having some data to help you have a better chance of winning by picking the number yourself. I realize, they admittedly aren't going after horseplayers with this but they are relying on a whole lot of stupid.
Because the amount won by lottery players will be verified to be much lower than those who win a parimutuel wager, I just don't see it working. It has to either be a life changing win (not going to happen with a tri, super, etc.) or the 20 cent lottery component has to be unique with possible carryover potential.
The Fix
The 20 cent lottery component cannot be the same exact wager as the parimutuel one. The fix is simple.
Using the same triactor example as above, when someone buys the 5-2-8 quick pick, the ticket in this case actually has another 3 or 4 numbers (horse that need to finish 4th through 6th or 7th in exact order). When it comes to a 10 horse race, the odds of picking 6 horses randomly in the right order is one out of 151,200, 7 horses is one out of 604,800. Depending on how many tickets are purchased each day, this even creates carryover opportunities which create even more demand. But using the 100,000 example, this portion of the lottery will be won 2 out of 3 days if 6 numbers are used. If it is won on the first day, there would be only one jackpot winner (there would still be 139 winners who get the $1 triactor payout) who would win the $20,000 lottery portion of the play plus the $1 triactor payout. This could fly and be successful. Also, the chance of cashing the lottery portion become significantly more difficult if the triactor has more than 10 horses, or if a superfecta is the wager type. For Pick Fours or Pick Fives, etc. the extra number could be an additional number each race, where the jackpot is only paid out if the player has all the exactors in right order for the races involved. For example, a Pick 4 involving 4 nine horse races randomly will be cashed one out of 6,561 times. To get 4 straight exactors in a row on a random ticket in 9 horse races, the odds are over a whopping 26 million to one (that is enough to satisfy the life changing element of buying the lottery ticket as the winners amount will be $2.6 million on average). Even a Pick 3 could work. Chances of winning on a random ticket is one out of 729 (if three 9 horse races are used), chances of hitting three straight exactors on a quick pick: one out of 373,248.
Showing posts with label OLG. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OLG. Show all posts
10 July 2014
24 June 2012
Queen's Plate Prediction and More
I feel obligated to at least predict the winner of today's Queen's Plate. I'll start off by stating that I don't like Strait of Dover. He reminds me of Not Bourbon, and even though that horse won the Plate, generally, those type are not successful at a mile and a quarter. This one hasn't gone past a mile and a sixteenth, and hasn't raced in 43 days. To me, he is a pitch.
River Rush was very green in the Plate Trial and still pulled off a 5 length victory. The time for the race was 7 ticks faster than the very competitive Oaks. However, he travels like a sore horse and that might explain the fact he has had only 3 well spaced out races in his career. I expect a bounce, and that might mean he can still be used for third or fourth.
When taking recency and mileage under the belt (fitness and endurance), two horses stand out: The filly, Dixie Strike, disappointed in the Oaks, though she may have bounced. Her second last race is good enough to win the Plate. She gets blinkers on and has a five pound weight advantage (as does Oaks winner Irish Mission, who is a major bounce candidate, and is also inferior when it comes to speed figures). Trainer Mark Casse may have taken it too easy on Dixie Strike going into the Oaks, and I expect a much better effort in the Plate.
The other horse that looks to come into the race fit and completely ready to peak is Classic Bryce. He has a good post and jockey Todd Kabel will get the most out of him. His last running line in the Plate Trial is an indicator that he might enjoy a more relaxed pace that usually comes with a stretch out in distance. If he kicks in at all in the stretch, he could be the one.
Finally, the best jockey in North America, Ramon Dominguez, is aboard Big Creek. He was off a 43 day layoff going into the Plate Trial and he chased while running outside (which was against the bias, as the top three finishers were the ones closest to the rail during most of the race). Dominguez is also in a position to over whip the horse (he can afford the fine just as Alex Solis did in the Oaks with Irish Mission) if the horse needs it, as he would just be a first time offender, and excessive whipping would only cost him around 20% of his share...and no suspension.
So here is the superfecta: Dixie Strike, Big Creek, Classic Bryce, and River Rush.
The Crap Being Spewed By The Ontario Liberal Party
The Paulick Report has put out quite a few articles bringing to light the dismal situation the future of Ontario horse racing is facing right now. I had to chime in with a comment on one of his articles:
On the other side, as Pull The Pocket points out, the Ontario racing industry seems to be putting out unnecessary propaganda too. Mainly, it is done by a few, on articles in newspapers, Standardbred Canada, and Facebook, where comments and even articles use terms like "ill advised" plan, or "inexplicable" when referring to the new way the OLG wants to have casinos run.
Bottom line, and I've stated here before, the OLG knows they run an inefficient operation. Salaries and benefits have got way out of hand. They also don't want to pay for the expense of expanding gaming. So they have decided to privatize, which means they intend to just keep the role of oversight, and lose the role of operator.
The old deal was basically 10% to the tracks, 10% to the horsemen, and 5% to the municipality. That doesn't mean they made 75%. They had to pay the expenses, and in many cases, that works out to a high percentage of the 75% they retain, when you factor in things like utilities on top of highly paid casino workers. So in order to attract new operators the OLG will have to take a much smaller percentage of gross casino revenues, and bottom line, they could make more money in the long run....but when you take into account the lost horse racing jobs, the negative effects on the businesses near racetracks, etc., the government may still wind up in worse shape.
The reality is that the OLG only gets 20% of total gaming revenues at Caesar's in Windsor, so the government makes money, but Caesar's actually still loses money after giving the government the 20% share. There are a lot of operating expenses in running a casino. Table games have much thinner margins than slots as it takes a lot more employees to run those games, for example.
My point is that those questioning the new deal shouldn't be focused on the potential profits the OLG is expecting to make (they expect to make more by eliminating the expenses), but focus on the social and job impact that destroying the horse racing industry will have. The government's number one goal shouldn't be making the most profits they can off gambling, but keeping employment numbers as high as possible, and micro economies going as strongly as possible.
Frog Juice
The frog juice scandal has been growing legs. Louisiana is starting to name the culprits whose horses tested positive. Right now they are only facing 6 months, which is a typical slap on the wrist the industry tends to hand out. I believe these suspensions will wind up being much longer once final decision are made.
In a nutshell, it is so hard to catch cheaters, cheaters should be dealt with as harshly as possible when caught. It is the only way to deter those who seem to always be a step ahead of the regulators and lab testers.
2 years minimum, $50,000 fines, and possible jail sentences for those who use illegal drugs (I'm not talking about overages on legal substances, but illegal substances). This is the only way to clean up horse racing.
To show what horse racing is up against, here is a post from Pace Advantage by a lab worker who uses the handle Storm Chaser:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jorcus99
'I doubt there is a substance that is undetectable. There are only compounds that are not tested for yet.'
Storm Chaser posted:
'Great quote. To define the process, all substances are deemed undetectable until the specific lab can identify the gc-ms fingerprint of a specific drug. One it is identified then it is placed, if requested by the racing board as an illegal substance, to the labs testing profile.
The labs are usually the second in the chain to learn of a new doping agent. Once it is brought to their attention, then they have to try and acquire the drug to be able to break it down and test it. That process takes many months.
We just went through this with the NCAA and the other accredited labs in dealing with a new synthetic marijuana from Europe. We all heard the rumours about it, but could not acquire it here in the states. Our lab went to Germany to acquire it, bring it back to their lab to start analysing it. Mind you they had to get people to ingest it, so the could see how it was metabolized in the urine so they could devise a test for it. Then it took months of analysing the data before the felt good about testing for it in their clients athletes.
And then we found out that all the drug guys had to do was change one small part of the chemical mixture of the synthetic marijuana, and it was undetectable again because they changed the fingerprint again.
Lesson to be learned, the drug guys are always going to be ahead of the test labs with no end in sight.,
__________________
River Rush was very green in the Plate Trial and still pulled off a 5 length victory. The time for the race was 7 ticks faster than the very competitive Oaks. However, he travels like a sore horse and that might explain the fact he has had only 3 well spaced out races in his career. I expect a bounce, and that might mean he can still be used for third or fourth.
When taking recency and mileage under the belt (fitness and endurance), two horses stand out: The filly, Dixie Strike, disappointed in the Oaks, though she may have bounced. Her second last race is good enough to win the Plate. She gets blinkers on and has a five pound weight advantage (as does Oaks winner Irish Mission, who is a major bounce candidate, and is also inferior when it comes to speed figures). Trainer Mark Casse may have taken it too easy on Dixie Strike going into the Oaks, and I expect a much better effort in the Plate.
The other horse that looks to come into the race fit and completely ready to peak is Classic Bryce. He has a good post and jockey Todd Kabel will get the most out of him. His last running line in the Plate Trial is an indicator that he might enjoy a more relaxed pace that usually comes with a stretch out in distance. If he kicks in at all in the stretch, he could be the one.
Finally, the best jockey in North America, Ramon Dominguez, is aboard Big Creek. He was off a 43 day layoff going into the Plate Trial and he chased while running outside (which was against the bias, as the top three finishers were the ones closest to the rail during most of the race). Dominguez is also in a position to over whip the horse (he can afford the fine just as Alex Solis did in the Oaks with Irish Mission) if the horse needs it, as he would just be a first time offender, and excessive whipping would only cost him around 20% of his share...and no suspension.
So here is the superfecta: Dixie Strike, Big Creek, Classic Bryce, and River Rush.
The Crap Being Spewed By The Ontario Liberal Party
The Paulick Report has put out quite a few articles bringing to light the dismal situation the future of Ontario horse racing is facing right now. I had to chime in with a comment on one of his articles:
The tactics used by the Ontario Liberal Party really sickened me. Calling it a subsidy and pitting it against health care and education. The reality is that it is a business partnership and both partners needed each other to get it going. This arrangement has been the blueprint for all other slots deals in the US because of its success. As for pitting the revenues the tracks and horsemen get from slots, it is the goal of the OLG (a Crown Corp.) to privatize slots. What that means is the most of profits (that went to racetracks and purses), if not all of them will go to private operators instead of the racing industry and NOT to health care and education.
As for calling it a subsidy, in Ontario public sector workers make close to 30-40% more than private sector workers doing similar jobs when factoring in benefits (there is something called the Sunshine List, government workers who make over 100k a year, and it grows in leaps and bounds each year. In 2011, over 70,000 people were on the list). The Ontario taxpayer is subsidizing these overpaid individuals big time, yet the government is looking at wiping out the livelihood of those involved in the racing industry, many who make net incomes of 20k-50k.
On the other side, as Pull The Pocket points out, the Ontario racing industry seems to be putting out unnecessary propaganda too. Mainly, it is done by a few, on articles in newspapers, Standardbred Canada, and Facebook, where comments and even articles use terms like "ill advised" plan, or "inexplicable" when referring to the new way the OLG wants to have casinos run.
Bottom line, and I've stated here before, the OLG knows they run an inefficient operation. Salaries and benefits have got way out of hand. They also don't want to pay for the expense of expanding gaming. So they have decided to privatize, which means they intend to just keep the role of oversight, and lose the role of operator.
The old deal was basically 10% to the tracks, 10% to the horsemen, and 5% to the municipality. That doesn't mean they made 75%. They had to pay the expenses, and in many cases, that works out to a high percentage of the 75% they retain, when you factor in things like utilities on top of highly paid casino workers. So in order to attract new operators the OLG will have to take a much smaller percentage of gross casino revenues, and bottom line, they could make more money in the long run....but when you take into account the lost horse racing jobs, the negative effects on the businesses near racetracks, etc., the government may still wind up in worse shape.
The reality is that the OLG only gets 20% of total gaming revenues at Caesar's in Windsor, so the government makes money, but Caesar's actually still loses money after giving the government the 20% share. There are a lot of operating expenses in running a casino. Table games have much thinner margins than slots as it takes a lot more employees to run those games, for example.
My point is that those questioning the new deal shouldn't be focused on the potential profits the OLG is expecting to make (they expect to make more by eliminating the expenses), but focus on the social and job impact that destroying the horse racing industry will have. The government's number one goal shouldn't be making the most profits they can off gambling, but keeping employment numbers as high as possible, and micro economies going as strongly as possible.
Frog Juice
The frog juice scandal has been growing legs. Louisiana is starting to name the culprits whose horses tested positive. Right now they are only facing 6 months, which is a typical slap on the wrist the industry tends to hand out. I believe these suspensions will wind up being much longer once final decision are made.
In a nutshell, it is so hard to catch cheaters, cheaters should be dealt with as harshly as possible when caught. It is the only way to deter those who seem to always be a step ahead of the regulators and lab testers.
2 years minimum, $50,000 fines, and possible jail sentences for those who use illegal drugs (I'm not talking about overages on legal substances, but illegal substances). This is the only way to clean up horse racing.
To show what horse racing is up against, here is a post from Pace Advantage by a lab worker who uses the handle Storm Chaser:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jorcus99
'I doubt there is a substance that is undetectable. There are only compounds that are not tested for yet.'
Storm Chaser posted:
'Great quote. To define the process, all substances are deemed undetectable until the specific lab can identify the gc-ms fingerprint of a specific drug. One it is identified then it is placed, if requested by the racing board as an illegal substance, to the labs testing profile.
The labs are usually the second in the chain to learn of a new doping agent. Once it is brought to their attention, then they have to try and acquire the drug to be able to break it down and test it. That process takes many months.
We just went through this with the NCAA and the other accredited labs in dealing with a new synthetic marijuana from Europe. We all heard the rumours about it, but could not acquire it here in the states. Our lab went to Germany to acquire it, bring it back to their lab to start analysing it. Mind you they had to get people to ingest it, so the could see how it was metabolized in the urine so they could devise a test for it. Then it took months of analysing the data before the felt good about testing for it in their clients athletes.
And then we found out that all the drug guys had to do was change one small part of the chemical mixture of the synthetic marijuana, and it was undetectable again because they changed the fingerprint again.
Lesson to be learned, the drug guys are always going to be ahead of the test labs with no end in sight.,
__________________
14 June 2012
What Ontario Horse Racing Should Do With The Transitional Funding
I'm still not convinced that this nightmare for the Ontario horse racing (the removal of the revenue sharing agreement for slots at racetracks) can't be reversed. But those who seem to know more than me say "no chance," so I'll believe them for now.
The OLG seems to have acted way too fast as they do not have their ducks in a row, not even close. They don't know which tracks will remain, which jurisdictions will accept new casinos (with or without referendums), who will operate the casinos, who will build and operate new casinos, and they don't even know what the new deal is going to look like.
I think they are going to have a huge problem attracting reputable casino operators without giving away an arm and a leg. In Ontario so far, the current casinos that are operated by outsiders, are losing money propositions for the operators, and that is based on a program where the OLG only gets 20% of the total gaming revenues. It is a tough sale, even for the best of salesman, and the OLG not only needs to sell to communities but also to new potential operators. If the best they can offer is that transparent huckster Paul Godfrey, who is well past his prime, they are in bigger trouble than I give them credit for.
However, the OLG, being a Crown Corporation, needs to privatize operations badly, especially if they are to move ahead with this expansion, as they cannot afford the risk of building new casinos or even expanding current ones. Much of the reason is due to the Ontario Liberal Party way: salaries and benefits for OLG workers has gotten way out of hand, much like the majority of other public sector jobs under the Liberal reign of overspending. And the OLG knows that the expected ROI on table games isn't very high, so they want private corporations to come in and assume the risk.
There is also the aspect that government workers are much better at cashing paychecks than being creative and bringing innovative ideas to the table. Private business tends to be creative and motivated, as well, they have an understanding of things like optimal pricing of their products.
Before I share my idea to save horse racing in Ontario, I want to add one more thing. It is imperative that racetracks play hardball when it comes to renting their locations to the OLG. There is no way the OLG will be in a position to move a significant share of slots to locations that aren't even built yet. My advice is for track owners to get together and hold out for even more money than the horsemen and track's share was under the old deal. As for terms. Ask for two years, but don't take anything less than a year.
The OLG will have no choice but to pay as they cannot afford to give up the revenues from slots. This will buy an extra year or two for the industry. The only risk I see is if we are dealing with a small track with a small amount of slots where the profit margin isn't very high. Still, where is the OLG going to move the slots? To an out of business laundromat?
As for Fort Erie, Windsor, and Sarnia. I think lawsuits are in order. There has to be something wrong with a government restricting a private enterprises right to make a living by giving preferential treatment to a Crown entity. This could be an anti-trust situation. Liberal Party embarrassment Dwight Duncan referred to the slots at tracks as competition to the casinos when trying to rationalize the raid of slot machines from these tracks. Of course, the real reason was to prop up the stand alone casinos bottom line so that their numbers in the future won't be as bad, therefore making it easier to attract potential operators for the other casinos province wide.
HOW TO USE THE $50 MILLION TRANSITIONAL FUNDING TO ATTEMPT TO SAVE RACING IN ONTARIO
Just to bring everyone up to speed, around a week ago the Ontario Liberal government announced that $50 million would be made available over the next three years to help sustain the horse racing industry. A panel has been created to take suggestions. Their mandate:
Assuming that the slots at racetrack program is dead, the only revenues to fund purses will now come from betting dollars on horse racing, and perhaps some rental income to whoever is operating the casinos that remain at certain racetracks.
The horse racing industry must come to grips with this, and they have to do it now. The money needs to be used to try to create more bettors willing to wager on horse racing. The Ontario government, through the OLG, may have the rights to casino gambling and even sports betting, but when it comes to parimutuel wagering on horses, that territory belongs to the Ontario horse racing industry.
If the horse racing industry can't get enough money wagered on it to be sustainable, well then, it really is time to give it up or reduce down to two or three tracks. But I think horse race wagering can be revitalized and actually compete with not only slots but the OLG lotteries (take that McGuinty).
What horse racing in Ontario needs to do is develop and market their own weekly parimutuel lottery, much like the Swedish V75, however, because of shorter fields than in Sweden (which is a Pick 7 format), as well the reality that inside horses have a big edge in harness races, a Pick 12 in Ontario may be required.
It would be a Sunday lottery that cuts off at 2 PM. Thoroughbred tracks, when racing can be used as well as harness races. The last three or four races in the sequence will be broadcast live from 5:30 to 6:00 PM either on the internet, the Score or Sportsnet. It will have a 35% takeout (high for parimutuel, low for lottery). Two thirds of the money paid out will go to those who select all 12 winners (no winner means the money will carryover to next week). The other third will be divided up to those who select the first four winners, middle four winner, and last four winners as well as another consolation prize going to those who select the most winners (all lotteries require some churn, plus giving a prize for the last four winners will create more viewers for the live show).
It is highly unlikely that the OLG will add this to their menu, and who needs them as a partner anyway if slots go bye bye? That is why most of the $50 million will be needed to develop the technology to bring this across Ontario and maybe even all across Canada, as well, the money will be needed to create kiosks to place in variety stores. Tickets can be sold there, as well as through wagering accounts. But money will be needed to market this wager on TV, radio and the internet.
Money may also be needed to guarantee the first few pools. I figure that by making this a 20 cent base wager ($1 minimum), there needs to be something close to half a million being offered in order to attract the masses to begin with. This is not unrealistic at all.
The public will get excited watching races under this format. And it won't take long for them to realize that handicapping can improve their odds, instead of going the quick pick route. This is how to cultivate new Horseplayers from lottery players. Quick picks will definitely need to take post position into account and come up with a higher rate of low numbers to give the buyers their best shot at churn money or a jackpot win.
So where does the 35% go? A small commission goes to variety store owners of course. Some goes back to marketing, some goes to breeding awards, but the overwhelming chunk goes to the racetracks to split amongst tracks and purse accounts.
The monies can be allocated using various formulas. For instance, money bet within a 30 mile circumference from a racetrack goes to that racetrack, or the entire pool can be allocated to tracks based on the percentage of races they put on each year, or the last 6 months, etc. A mixture of these formulas can be incorporated just the same.
Having horse racing kiosks in stores opens the door to allowing patrons to wager on any horse race there as well, not that I expect that to be a huge win, it is still additional money and exposure. As for parimutuel lotteries. It doesn't have to stop at a once a week Pick 12, but daily Pick 4's (with a 25% takeout ahem!) can be offered as well.
Betting cards can be bought at convenience stores, either anonymously or using one's actual info. These betting cards can offer rebate points that can be accumulated to make future wagers.
Wins of under $300 can be paid out by the convenience store, but larger wins means going to the track...and that is another way to keep the momentum going.
The Ontario government wants horse racing to stand on their own two feet. This is how to do it, my friends.
The OLG seems to have acted way too fast as they do not have their ducks in a row, not even close. They don't know which tracks will remain, which jurisdictions will accept new casinos (with or without referendums), who will operate the casinos, who will build and operate new casinos, and they don't even know what the new deal is going to look like.
I think they are going to have a huge problem attracting reputable casino operators without giving away an arm and a leg. In Ontario so far, the current casinos that are operated by outsiders, are losing money propositions for the operators, and that is based on a program where the OLG only gets 20% of the total gaming revenues. It is a tough sale, even for the best of salesman, and the OLG not only needs to sell to communities but also to new potential operators. If the best they can offer is that transparent huckster Paul Godfrey, who is well past his prime, they are in bigger trouble than I give them credit for.
However, the OLG, being a Crown Corporation, needs to privatize operations badly, especially if they are to move ahead with this expansion, as they cannot afford the risk of building new casinos or even expanding current ones. Much of the reason is due to the Ontario Liberal Party way: salaries and benefits for OLG workers has gotten way out of hand, much like the majority of other public sector jobs under the Liberal reign of overspending. And the OLG knows that the expected ROI on table games isn't very high, so they want private corporations to come in and assume the risk.
There is also the aspect that government workers are much better at cashing paychecks than being creative and bringing innovative ideas to the table. Private business tends to be creative and motivated, as well, they have an understanding of things like optimal pricing of their products.
Before I share my idea to save horse racing in Ontario, I want to add one more thing. It is imperative that racetracks play hardball when it comes to renting their locations to the OLG. There is no way the OLG will be in a position to move a significant share of slots to locations that aren't even built yet. My advice is for track owners to get together and hold out for even more money than the horsemen and track's share was under the old deal. As for terms. Ask for two years, but don't take anything less than a year.
The OLG will have no choice but to pay as they cannot afford to give up the revenues from slots. This will buy an extra year or two for the industry. The only risk I see is if we are dealing with a small track with a small amount of slots where the profit margin isn't very high. Still, where is the OLG going to move the slots? To an out of business laundromat?
As for Fort Erie, Windsor, and Sarnia. I think lawsuits are in order. There has to be something wrong with a government restricting a private enterprises right to make a living by giving preferential treatment to a Crown entity. This could be an anti-trust situation. Liberal Party embarrassment Dwight Duncan referred to the slots at tracks as competition to the casinos when trying to rationalize the raid of slot machines from these tracks. Of course, the real reason was to prop up the stand alone casinos bottom line so that their numbers in the future won't be as bad, therefore making it easier to attract potential operators for the other casinos province wide.
HOW TO USE THE $50 MILLION TRANSITIONAL FUNDING TO ATTEMPT TO SAVE RACING IN ONTARIO
Just to bring everyone up to speed, around a week ago the Ontario Liberal government announced that $50 million would be made available over the next three years to help sustain the horse racing industry. A panel has been created to take suggestions. Their mandate:
Work with the industry to help develop a vision for the future.
Provide recommendations to the government on how to allocate transition funding.
Advise on the modernization of other industry revenue sources to assist the industry in becoming more self-sufficient.
A final report from the panel is expected in late summer 2012.
Assuming that the slots at racetrack program is dead, the only revenues to fund purses will now come from betting dollars on horse racing, and perhaps some rental income to whoever is operating the casinos that remain at certain racetracks.
The horse racing industry must come to grips with this, and they have to do it now. The money needs to be used to try to create more bettors willing to wager on horse racing. The Ontario government, through the OLG, may have the rights to casino gambling and even sports betting, but when it comes to parimutuel wagering on horses, that territory belongs to the Ontario horse racing industry.
If the horse racing industry can't get enough money wagered on it to be sustainable, well then, it really is time to give it up or reduce down to two or three tracks. But I think horse race wagering can be revitalized and actually compete with not only slots but the OLG lotteries (take that McGuinty).
What horse racing in Ontario needs to do is develop and market their own weekly parimutuel lottery, much like the Swedish V75, however, because of shorter fields than in Sweden (which is a Pick 7 format), as well the reality that inside horses have a big edge in harness races, a Pick 12 in Ontario may be required.
It would be a Sunday lottery that cuts off at 2 PM. Thoroughbred tracks, when racing can be used as well as harness races. The last three or four races in the sequence will be broadcast live from 5:30 to 6:00 PM either on the internet, the Score or Sportsnet. It will have a 35% takeout (high for parimutuel, low for lottery). Two thirds of the money paid out will go to those who select all 12 winners (no winner means the money will carryover to next week). The other third will be divided up to those who select the first four winners, middle four winner, and last four winners as well as another consolation prize going to those who select the most winners (all lotteries require some churn, plus giving a prize for the last four winners will create more viewers for the live show).
It is highly unlikely that the OLG will add this to their menu, and who needs them as a partner anyway if slots go bye bye? That is why most of the $50 million will be needed to develop the technology to bring this across Ontario and maybe even all across Canada, as well, the money will be needed to create kiosks to place in variety stores. Tickets can be sold there, as well as through wagering accounts. But money will be needed to market this wager on TV, radio and the internet.
Money may also be needed to guarantee the first few pools. I figure that by making this a 20 cent base wager ($1 minimum), there needs to be something close to half a million being offered in order to attract the masses to begin with. This is not unrealistic at all.
The public will get excited watching races under this format. And it won't take long for them to realize that handicapping can improve their odds, instead of going the quick pick route. This is how to cultivate new Horseplayers from lottery players. Quick picks will definitely need to take post position into account and come up with a higher rate of low numbers to give the buyers their best shot at churn money or a jackpot win.
So where does the 35% go? A small commission goes to variety store owners of course. Some goes back to marketing, some goes to breeding awards, but the overwhelming chunk goes to the racetracks to split amongst tracks and purse accounts.
The monies can be allocated using various formulas. For instance, money bet within a 30 mile circumference from a racetrack goes to that racetrack, or the entire pool can be allocated to tracks based on the percentage of races they put on each year, or the last 6 months, etc. A mixture of these formulas can be incorporated just the same.
Having horse racing kiosks in stores opens the door to allowing patrons to wager on any horse race there as well, not that I expect that to be a huge win, it is still additional money and exposure. As for parimutuel lotteries. It doesn't have to stop at a once a week Pick 12, but daily Pick 4's (with a 25% takeout ahem!) can be offered as well.
Betting cards can be bought at convenience stores, either anonymously or using one's actual info. These betting cards can offer rebate points that can be accumulated to make future wagers.
Wins of under $300 can be paid out by the convenience store, but larger wins means going to the track...and that is another way to keep the momentum going.
The Ontario government wants horse racing to stand on their own two feet. This is how to do it, my friends.
20 March 2012
Are The OLG and Liberal Government Flying By The Seat Of Their Pants?
This modernization plan by the Ontario Liberal government and the OLG is starting to remind me of a Jackie Mason monologue: Do you know whats going on with slots and the racetracks? I don't know but someone else must. Where can I find this someone else? Start with Dalton McGuinty, he seems to know most of what needs to be known. But does he know everything? Not everything, maybe the OLG knows everything. They don't seem to know everything either. I think they thought they knew everything, but they don't know everything anymore. How about Finance Minister Dwight Duncan? He seemed to know everything too, but he doesn't know everything now, except maybe when it comes to donuts.
To make sense of the above, we'll have to look at some real information and real laws that are now coming out of the woodwork.
First, in my previous post, I stated that slots were taken away rather quickly from Fort Erie, Hiawatha and Windsor race tracks because it is the OLG's goal to sell the nearby casinos, so by taking away the slots from the tracks, the bottom line revenues for the casinos would go up making them more attractive to buyers.
Looks like I was wrong as it is illegal for a private company to both own/lease and operate a casino in Ontario according the Criminal Code of Canada, unless exceptions are made. Exceptions are not a gimme when there is a minority government whose popularity has shrunk since getting elected only 5 months ago.
These laws throw a monkey wrench when it comes to the idea that racetracks can have privatized gaming. The racetrack right now owns the property that the OLG is leasing from them. If a racetrack or even another business were to take over the operations on the tracks, that would mean that the OLG is neither leasing, owning or operating the casino. This is against the Criminal Code, unless a loophole exists that they can get away with just leasing gambling equipment to make it a go.
So in Fort Erie's case, lets say that the $30 million in revenues a year caused a break even for the OLG after operating expenses and the amounts paid out to the track, horsemen and municipality. Even if $5 million of that makes its way over to Niagara Falls, that is $5 million more bottom line for the OLG and the operators of the Niagara casinos.
Now by taking away the slots without giving a privatization option to these border tracks, the province and OLG have declared these tracks as nothing but competition. And I'm sure they are hoping the tracks close down completely so that if any gambling is done, it will be on OLG product. It sounds slimy, but heck we are talking about McGuinty here.
The biggest news that came out today is that McGuinty has stated that Municipalities can hold referendums when it comes to introducing new casinos (like in Toronto). Well, according the OLG Act of 1999, a referendum MUST be held. With the recent poll that shows 60% of Torontonians against a new casino, the likelihood of a yes is far from a sure thing. Unless, those bottom dwelling Liberals can pass new legislation regarding a referendum having to be held (and I wouldn't it put it past them).
In fact, the way the laws are written now when it comes to bringing in a new casino, there are quite a few hoops to jump through.
It appears right now that the Liberals and OLG have written a check their asses can't cash. Who knows, maybe they'll decide to leave well enough alone. For the racing industry, its many direct employees, and the many businesses these employees support or help support, one can only hope.
UPDATE: McGuinty has said that the provision to have a mandatory referendum has lapsed. So that means McGuinty has one less hoop to jump through. He can bully a new casino through in Toronto now, and even if the majority of Torontonians want a referendum, politicians can do what they do best and lie or come up with an excuse for not having to do a referendum.
Bottom line, no one has even mentioned what the split will be on the new privatization deal, and this reinforces my belief that there isn't a person who knows everything yet.
CANADIAN POLITICS NOTE
For my American readers who might be confusing Ontario or Canadian Liberal Parties with political liberals in the USA, every political party in Canada is to the Left of the US Democratic Party. The Federal Conservatives and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives are to the right in the Canadian political spectrum, with the Liberal Party on the Left, and the New Democratic Party closer to the Far Left.
Personally, I'm a social liberal (by American standards), while fiscally I'm close to the centre (center in American language).
One final note: Kim Craitor, the Liberal representative for the Niagara Region (including Fort Erie) has had threats against his life and now fears to set foot in Fort Erie. Craitor, took a lot of credit (whether he deserved it or not) when a deal was made to save racing at Fort Erie three years ago, but he was nowhere in sight when an OLG gunslinger came to town last week to take away the keys to the slot machines at the track.
Politicians don't need to have their life jeopardized (besides the fact that one can get jailed for doing the threatening). You get even with them by voting them out.
To make sense of the above, we'll have to look at some real information and real laws that are now coming out of the woodwork.
First, in my previous post, I stated that slots were taken away rather quickly from Fort Erie, Hiawatha and Windsor race tracks because it is the OLG's goal to sell the nearby casinos, so by taking away the slots from the tracks, the bottom line revenues for the casinos would go up making them more attractive to buyers.
Looks like I was wrong as it is illegal for a private company to both own/lease and operate a casino in Ontario according the Criminal Code of Canada, unless exceptions are made. Exceptions are not a gimme when there is a minority government whose popularity has shrunk since getting elected only 5 months ago.
These laws throw a monkey wrench when it comes to the idea that racetracks can have privatized gaming. The racetrack right now owns the property that the OLG is leasing from them. If a racetrack or even another business were to take over the operations on the tracks, that would mean that the OLG is neither leasing, owning or operating the casino. This is against the Criminal Code, unless a loophole exists that they can get away with just leasing gambling equipment to make it a go.
So in Fort Erie's case, lets say that the $30 million in revenues a year caused a break even for the OLG after operating expenses and the amounts paid out to the track, horsemen and municipality. Even if $5 million of that makes its way over to Niagara Falls, that is $5 million more bottom line for the OLG and the operators of the Niagara casinos.
Now by taking away the slots without giving a privatization option to these border tracks, the province and OLG have declared these tracks as nothing but competition. And I'm sure they are hoping the tracks close down completely so that if any gambling is done, it will be on OLG product. It sounds slimy, but heck we are talking about McGuinty here.
The biggest news that came out today is that McGuinty has stated that Municipalities can hold referendums when it comes to introducing new casinos (like in Toronto). Well, according the OLG Act of 1999, a referendum MUST be held. With the recent poll that shows 60% of Torontonians against a new casino, the likelihood of a yes is far from a sure thing. Unless, those bottom dwelling Liberals can pass new legislation regarding a referendum having to be held (and I wouldn't it put it past them).
In fact, the way the laws are written now when it comes to bringing in a new casino, there are quite a few hoops to jump through.
It appears right now that the Liberals and OLG have written a check their asses can't cash. Who knows, maybe they'll decide to leave well enough alone. For the racing industry, its many direct employees, and the many businesses these employees support or help support, one can only hope.
UPDATE: McGuinty has said that the provision to have a mandatory referendum has lapsed. So that means McGuinty has one less hoop to jump through. He can bully a new casino through in Toronto now, and even if the majority of Torontonians want a referendum, politicians can do what they do best and lie or come up with an excuse for not having to do a referendum.
Bottom line, no one has even mentioned what the split will be on the new privatization deal, and this reinforces my belief that there isn't a person who knows everything yet.
CANADIAN POLITICS NOTE
For my American readers who might be confusing Ontario or Canadian Liberal Parties with political liberals in the USA, every political party in Canada is to the Left of the US Democratic Party. The Federal Conservatives and the Ontario Progressive Conservatives are to the right in the Canadian political spectrum, with the Liberal Party on the Left, and the New Democratic Party closer to the Far Left.
Personally, I'm a social liberal (by American standards), while fiscally I'm close to the centre (center in American language).
One final note: Kim Craitor, the Liberal representative for the Niagara Region (including Fort Erie) has had threats against his life and now fears to set foot in Fort Erie. Craitor, took a lot of credit (whether he deserved it or not) when a deal was made to save racing at Fort Erie three years ago, but he was nowhere in sight when an OLG gunslinger came to town last week to take away the keys to the slot machines at the track.
Politicians don't need to have their life jeopardized (besides the fact that one can get jailed for doing the threatening). You get even with them by voting them out.
16 March 2012
Lets Recap What The OLG Is Really Doing
The Drummond Report came out recommending that the Ontario government revisits the slots deal it has with racetracks.
It didn't take long for Dalton (Norman Bates) McGuinty and his sidekick Dwight (Have Another Donut) Duncan to start lying about the relationship between racetracks and slots (calling slots revenues tax dollars and stating they were subsidies to the tracks) and then hinting that racetracks may lose all or some of their slots revenues.
In what seems the time it took to read the Drummond Report, border Racinos in Fort Erie, Hiawatha, and Windsor were told that their slots were going to be eliminated by April 30th this year, but that the government will make sure tracks are able to operate and purses accounts will be (close to) maintained for another year as long as these tracks race.
Of course, more lies were used by the collective PR of the OLG and Ontario Liberal Party, stating these Racinos were losing money. Revenues are way down, but the only track that is close to break even is Fort Erie, and it is doubtful that the OLG was losing a dime there.
OK, so the macro reason for the slots closures has to do with the budget, or so they claim. But why close them so quickly? Because the main agenda item is to prop up the revenues for the 4 stand alone casinos (Niagara has two) that are very close to proximity to the 3 Racinos that had the slots taken away. The goal by the government is to sell these casinos (before online gambling erodes these numbers down again), and the reality is that these casinos actually do lose money.
The fact that the government is paying lots of severance to slots employees and lots of money to the three tracks for the lost slots revenues over the next year shows that immediate deficit reduction is what this move is all about, nor is it about changing the ratio of what tracks get to keep on slots revenues.
In fact, the government has made it clear that it wants to privatize all slots and casino operations within the next year or so, which means that the OLG will not have to worry about paying slots employees, maintaining machines, etc. The gaming operator will now take over that function. The question again is what will the new cut be if a track takes over the operation, and what will be the deal with expanded slots as well as online gaming which is expected in the near future.
The government is attempting to get out of paying for the expenses of gambling, and they are looking to sell their assets (by the way, someone should clue in Puppet Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak that what he wants is what the government is looking to do).
This isn't really what the Drummond Report said to do, but this is the new direction the government is taking. Let gambling competition run amok, and tax the gambling company as much as it can (without having no gambling companies interested in doing business with an untrustworthy government in Ontario).
Hudak meanwhile, is not getting the big picture. The government is looking to put slots anywhere and everywhere, which means that Fort Erie and the other tracks should have had the opportunity to keep them. But the selling of the casinos is the reason they were taken away abruptly.
I wonder if Fort Erie, Hiawatha, and Windsor have a legal case by having their rights denied to compete to have slots, and the way in which this was done (especially if it turns out that the other tracks will be given the choice to operate slots).
Down the road, once the government decides what their new cut is going to be on slots and how and for what price they will sell the location rights, the rest of the tracks that have slots will make their decision as to whether to operate or not. Once the Niagara Falls casinos as well as those in Windsor and near Sarnia are sold, Fort Erie may have the opportunity to buy the rights to operate slots, unless part of the sale of the casinos will have a clause that no other gambling operations can be put up within a 25 mile radius, for example.
I have to say though, Duncan, McGuinty, and Paul Godfrey make me sick with their lies and misrepresentations. Hudak, if he wasn't so clueless and wasn't so badly managed, could have been the Ontario leader right now, and one thing is for sure, this wouldn't be going down like it is right now. I also believe that there would be no closures either, nor would racing be destined to die at any location in the near future either.
The next stage in the game for the Ontario Liberal Party and OLG is to believe they are entitled to have gamblers gamble with them. It won't work as long as they maintain their Pro-Line odds mentality. See "Is Horse Racing in Ontario the Fall Guy For Government Mismanagement?"
Note: The photo above is circulating on Facebook (where I happened to come across it). McGuinty has pissed off quite a few people. Even I find the message a bit harsh but decided it fit in well with the blog piece.
22 December 2009
Ontario Government Thinking Of Privatizing Slots
What Happens If The Ontario Government Sells Off Casinos?
The Ontario government is thinking about selling their Crown assets. These include Hydro One, Ontario Power Generation, The LCBO, and the OLG (Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp.). The OLG runs all casinos in Ontario.
There still is no decision as to whether some, none or all of the Crown's assets will be sold or when they will be sold.
OK, lets look at the possible repercussions. First off, I can see the Niagara Casino and Windsor Casino being sold outright to a large Vegas based company. A company without any experience in gaming isn't going to buy the casinos. This would be good for the customer. We will see more perks. Free drinks for the shooters as well.
Now what about racetrack slots? One thing to keep in mind is that the OLG does not own the slots or the buildings where the slot machines are found. The individual tracks own all that. The OLG owns the slot machines, and their most important asset is the right to make money from those slot machines. For use of the track's building and because of the known fact that slots cannibalizes horse racing, the OLG pays all expenses to run slots and pays the track 10% and the horsemen another 10% of the profits from slots, as well they pay the township where the slots are located another 2-3%.
The best possible solution is for the OLG to sell the rights to operate slots to the individual slots. Owners of tracks have already undergone major background checks before the ORC allows them to operate a race track.
Secondly, bringing in a third party to run the slots could cause major hardship to the racing industry. Right now the OLG is pretty complacent when it comes to potential customer crossover. But get a slot operator that has its only source of income coming from gamblers losing at slots, and we might see more aggressive behavior towards potential crossover. For example, if Joe Smith loses $200 playing slots, the casino winds up over $150, the track and horsemen get $20 each. If Joe Smith loses $200 at the track, the track and horsemen wind up with over $80 each (and the casino gets nothing). It is to the tracks best interest that the gambler playing horses, and it is to the casino operator's best interest that the casino player doesn't even know horse racing exists. This could cause a hostile environment.
I'm not sure that the government can just give racetracks first right of refusal when it comes to buying the slots operations, or if they have to take the best possible offer. But it does make sense that tracks will be willing to pay the most for the operations since they can potentially cut down their labour costs and other operating costs by running both operations under the same management.
The government can simply give the tracks a 10 to 20 year mortgage to pay for the slot's operations, while still getting around 3-4 cents on every dollar wagered through the machines in the form of a tax.
Racetracks will wind up making more than the 10% they make now. Most of the extra will be used to pay down the mortgage debt. They might be in a position, in the case of Fort Erie for example, to offer a bigger cut to purses (than the mandatory 10%) if the racing game continues to sink.
The government will still have rules in place, including the 10% of slot profits that goes to purses, and they will hopefully enforce the rule that if there is no racing, there is no slots.
Teen Arrested For Having Sex With Horses
Happened at the oldest active track in North America; The Goshen Historic Track. "This guy makes Michael Vick look like a charter member of PETA," Village police Chief James Watt said.
Canadian Harness Tracks Gets Proactive: Canada One Racing Looking To Get More Bettors In North America To Be Exposed To Canadian Harness Racing
Not surprisingly, Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) has decided not to participate in the project. For one thing, if Canadian harness racing is put on the map, Woodbine and Mohawk would benefit regardless, and secondly and most importantly, horse racing has become a necessary evil over at WEG. WEG is now only concerned about taking what they can without spending much money. They realize that they are not offering a product that the general public wants, and with their high takeout rates, they know by now, they just can't attract new people anymore. They've given up on horse racing. Instead of changing prices and being an industry leader, their focus is now staying afloat so they can expand their profitable business (slots and potentially other casino games).
Canada One is potentially looking to embrace exchange betting. Exchange betting or not, Canadian harness racing is in a position to become a leader when it comes to lowering takeout rates collectively (can we say 12% across the board?), and getting a tremendous head start versus their thoroughbred industry rivals.
More Cuts At Woodbine
Besides recently firing the parking lot staff a few weeks ago, I also heard a rumour that Jennifer Morrison was released from her duties of odds making (including the Winter Plate Book). She will also not be giving handicapping seminars either. I emailed Jennifer and she confirmed the rumour is in fact reality.
What a stupid move by Woodbine. Jen's Thoroughblog is a source for many Ontario thoroughbred horsemen to get a daily dose of what is happening pretty much at Woodbine. Getting her to spend less time at Woodbine will cause her to have less insight on the daily goings on there, and it naturally gives her less incentive to give Woodbine positive advertising (something you won't find my here at Cangamble). Hundreds of people (mostly from Ontario) visit her blog daily. I guess she can afford to be more controversial now.
Like I wrote earlier, Woodbine is giving up on horse racing. I wonder if the Score and racing SUN TV will be affected too. Last year, Woodbine cut the talking heads from their HPITV telecasts. Woodbine may have been up 6% in handle but their real income was most likely down, and the way it is going, the trend will continue.
If you want to complain to Woodbine about Jennifer Morrison's dismissal, call 1-888-675-7223 or 416-675-7223.
The Ontario government is thinking about selling their Crown assets. These include Hydro One, Ontario Power Generation, The LCBO, and the OLG (Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp.). The OLG runs all casinos in Ontario.
There still is no decision as to whether some, none or all of the Crown's assets will be sold or when they will be sold.
OK, lets look at the possible repercussions. First off, I can see the Niagara Casino and Windsor Casino being sold outright to a large Vegas based company. A company without any experience in gaming isn't going to buy the casinos. This would be good for the customer. We will see more perks. Free drinks for the shooters as well.
Now what about racetrack slots? One thing to keep in mind is that the OLG does not own the slots or the buildings where the slot machines are found. The individual tracks own all that. The OLG owns the slot machines, and their most important asset is the right to make money from those slot machines. For use of the track's building and because of the known fact that slots cannibalizes horse racing, the OLG pays all expenses to run slots and pays the track 10% and the horsemen another 10% of the profits from slots, as well they pay the township where the slots are located another 2-3%.
The best possible solution is for the OLG to sell the rights to operate slots to the individual slots. Owners of tracks have already undergone major background checks before the ORC allows them to operate a race track.
Secondly, bringing in a third party to run the slots could cause major hardship to the racing industry. Right now the OLG is pretty complacent when it comes to potential customer crossover. But get a slot operator that has its only source of income coming from gamblers losing at slots, and we might see more aggressive behavior towards potential crossover. For example, if Joe Smith loses $200 playing slots, the casino winds up over $150, the track and horsemen get $20 each. If Joe Smith loses $200 at the track, the track and horsemen wind up with over $80 each (and the casino gets nothing). It is to the tracks best interest that the gambler playing horses, and it is to the casino operator's best interest that the casino player doesn't even know horse racing exists. This could cause a hostile environment.
I'm not sure that the government can just give racetracks first right of refusal when it comes to buying the slots operations, or if they have to take the best possible offer. But it does make sense that tracks will be willing to pay the most for the operations since they can potentially cut down their labour costs and other operating costs by running both operations under the same management.
The government can simply give the tracks a 10 to 20 year mortgage to pay for the slot's operations, while still getting around 3-4 cents on every dollar wagered through the machines in the form of a tax.
Racetracks will wind up making more than the 10% they make now. Most of the extra will be used to pay down the mortgage debt. They might be in a position, in the case of Fort Erie for example, to offer a bigger cut to purses (than the mandatory 10%) if the racing game continues to sink.
The government will still have rules in place, including the 10% of slot profits that goes to purses, and they will hopefully enforce the rule that if there is no racing, there is no slots.
Teen Arrested For Having Sex With Horses
Happened at the oldest active track in North America; The Goshen Historic Track. "This guy makes Michael Vick look like a charter member of PETA," Village police Chief James Watt said.
Canadian Harness Tracks Gets Proactive: Canada One Racing Looking To Get More Bettors In North America To Be Exposed To Canadian Harness Racing
Not surprisingly, Woodbine Entertainment Group (WEG) has decided not to participate in the project. For one thing, if Canadian harness racing is put on the map, Woodbine and Mohawk would benefit regardless, and secondly and most importantly, horse racing has become a necessary evil over at WEG. WEG is now only concerned about taking what they can without spending much money. They realize that they are not offering a product that the general public wants, and with their high takeout rates, they know by now, they just can't attract new people anymore. They've given up on horse racing. Instead of changing prices and being an industry leader, their focus is now staying afloat so they can expand their profitable business (slots and potentially other casino games).
Canada One is potentially looking to embrace exchange betting. Exchange betting or not, Canadian harness racing is in a position to become a leader when it comes to lowering takeout rates collectively (can we say 12% across the board?), and getting a tremendous head start versus their thoroughbred industry rivals.
More Cuts At Woodbine
Besides recently firing the parking lot staff a few weeks ago, I also heard a rumour that Jennifer Morrison was released from her duties of odds making (including the Winter Plate Book). She will also not be giving handicapping seminars either. I emailed Jennifer and she confirmed the rumour is in fact reality.
What a stupid move by Woodbine. Jen's Thoroughblog is a source for many Ontario thoroughbred horsemen to get a daily dose of what is happening pretty much at Woodbine. Getting her to spend less time at Woodbine will cause her to have less insight on the daily goings on there, and it naturally gives her less incentive to give Woodbine positive advertising (something you won't find my here at Cangamble). Hundreds of people (mostly from Ontario) visit her blog daily. I guess she can afford to be more controversial now.
Like I wrote earlier, Woodbine is giving up on horse racing. I wonder if the Score and racing SUN TV will be affected too. Last year, Woodbine cut the talking heads from their HPITV telecasts. Woodbine may have been up 6% in handle but their real income was most likely down, and the way it is going, the trend will continue.
If you want to complain to Woodbine about Jennifer Morrison's dismissal, call 1-888-675-7223 or 416-675-7223.
1 September 2009
Axe Falls On Ontario Lottery & Gaming Corp.
The OLG board resigned and CEO Kelly McDougald was fired with cause.
There has to be much more to these firings than expense filings for golf memberships, pen refills, or weight loss clinics by OLG execs. And no, it can't be because of giving out a Mercedes Benz during Ontario's auto crisis as a prize, as a lottery prize either. And I don't buy it being because of the mistakes made over ticket misprints or slot machine glitches.
Most likely, we will find out more. I expect there to be many non tendered contracts that have been awarded through McDougald's short reign as being a major part of the firing, but I am speculating. The practice of handing out non tendered contracts usually has something to do with nepotism or under the table payoffs or pay back for favours done or expected to be done in the near future. This is something the government is supposed to frown upon and take seriously as it wrecks public confidence, and perhaps that is what is going on here.
Moving forward, it is hard to say how this will impact the Racinos in Ontario. The old OLG regime was apparently tough to deal with, and the OLG may have been partly responsible for the lack of growth in the industry over the last few years.
They also seem to have forgot why casinos were placed at racetracks in the first place: to help subsidize the racing industry in Ontario. For example, it seemed like an impossibility for Fort Erie to get a bigger percentage of casino revenues in order to help its survival under McDougald's regime. I kept hearing that the OLG does not care about horse racing, that it is just a necessary evil.
Maybe the new board and leader will be more racetrack friendly. I know the OLG needs some positive press, and keeping jobs is a must, so they can't afford for Fort Erie racetrack to close. Creating jobs would also be something that would give them some positive news, and I expect the new regime to do their best to fast track the creation of the proposed new Racino in Belleville.
Now if only we can see the same type of house cleaning at Woodbine Entertainment, life for the Ontario gambler, and the industry as a whole, would improve immensely.
Is it just me, or does Kelly McDougald look like Sarah Palin without a makeover?
I think it was a great thing to see Palin gone (not a fan, sorry conservative readers), and it might just be a good thing that McDougald is gone now too.
Ontario Racing Commission Hands Out Large Fine For Violation Of Archaic Rule
***********************************************
The horse gets claimed in Ontario, and the new owners, who were probably not aware of the rules to begin with, entered the horse in a Stake series in PEI.
The rule has been in place for years to help protect our racing population. This made more sense when Ontario didn't offer some of the best purses in North America, but now the rule needs to be thrown away.
It was wrong to begin with, because it interferes with free enterprise, but especially now with higher purses available, the rule makes no sense, and it only takes away options for new owners, which has could have a negative affect on the amount of horse owners and potential horse owners in the future.
Yes, the House's broke the rules (and willfully too it appears), and they deserve the fine, but this rule needs to be taken out of the books going forward.
Goodbye Whip, Hello Crop
The ORC is just stuck in the stone ages, they do have their progressive moments. Today is the first day that the soft cushion crop is mandatory for jockeys to use. Jennifer Morrison's article in the Star explains things a lot better than I can.
I wonder who will be the first jockey to get fined under the new urging rule.
Steven Crist: More Questions Than Answers In Lasix Debate
Excellent read. But whether Lasix is allowed or not, it really doesn't matter, as long as takeout is high. Racing's woes won't be fixed by cleaning up their tarnished image in regards to Lasix masking other drugs.
I'll also add that if racing wasn't so dysfunctional in North America, Lasix would have no place in the game except during workouts.
Don't shoot the messenger.
Finally, the other Canadian blogger who really gets it has written an excellent piece over at the HANA blog on the fact that carnivals are light years ahead of the racing industry when it comes to understanding the customer.
There has to be much more to these firings than expense filings for golf memberships, pen refills, or weight loss clinics by OLG execs. And no, it can't be because of giving out a Mercedes Benz during Ontario's auto crisis as a prize, as a lottery prize either. And I don't buy it being because of the mistakes made over ticket misprints or slot machine glitches.
Most likely, we will find out more. I expect there to be many non tendered contracts that have been awarded through McDougald's short reign as being a major part of the firing, but I am speculating. The practice of handing out non tendered contracts usually has something to do with nepotism or under the table payoffs or pay back for favours done or expected to be done in the near future. This is something the government is supposed to frown upon and take seriously as it wrecks public confidence, and perhaps that is what is going on here.
Moving forward, it is hard to say how this will impact the Racinos in Ontario. The old OLG regime was apparently tough to deal with, and the OLG may have been partly responsible for the lack of growth in the industry over the last few years.
They also seem to have forgot why casinos were placed at racetracks in the first place: to help subsidize the racing industry in Ontario. For example, it seemed like an impossibility for Fort Erie to get a bigger percentage of casino revenues in order to help its survival under McDougald's regime. I kept hearing that the OLG does not care about horse racing, that it is just a necessary evil.
Maybe the new board and leader will be more racetrack friendly. I know the OLG needs some positive press, and keeping jobs is a must, so they can't afford for Fort Erie racetrack to close. Creating jobs would also be something that would give them some positive news, and I expect the new regime to do their best to fast track the creation of the proposed new Racino in Belleville.
Now if only we can see the same type of house cleaning at Woodbine Entertainment, life for the Ontario gambler, and the industry as a whole, would improve immensely.
Is it just me, or does Kelly McDougald look like Sarah Palin without a makeover?
I think it was a great thing to see Palin gone (not a fan, sorry conservative readers), and it might just be a good thing that McDougald is gone now too.
Ontario Racing Commission Hands Out Large Fine For Violation Of Archaic Rule
The Ontario Racing Commission has released details pertaining to the penalties doled out earlier today to Kerry and Shirley House, the owners of this year’s Gold Cup & Saucer winner, All The Weapons.
As outlined earlier today, each of the owners were fined $17,343.50 for violating ORC rule 15:09a, which stipulates:
15.09. A claimed horse, regard less of ownership:
(a) shall race only at a track or tracks in the Province of Ontario for the next 60 days, except where such a horse had been nominated to participate in an added money event before it was claimed, or unless the track where the horse was claimed is closing for more than 30 days. If the track where the horse was claimed closes for more than 30 days, the horse is released from the requirements of 15.09 (a).
***********************************************
The horse gets claimed in Ontario, and the new owners, who were probably not aware of the rules to begin with, entered the horse in a Stake series in PEI.
The rule has been in place for years to help protect our racing population. This made more sense when Ontario didn't offer some of the best purses in North America, but now the rule needs to be thrown away.
It was wrong to begin with, because it interferes with free enterprise, but especially now with higher purses available, the rule makes no sense, and it only takes away options for new owners, which has could have a negative affect on the amount of horse owners and potential horse owners in the future.
Yes, the House's broke the rules (and willfully too it appears), and they deserve the fine, but this rule needs to be taken out of the books going forward.
Goodbye Whip, Hello Crop
The ORC is just stuck in the stone ages, they do have their progressive moments. Today is the first day that the soft cushion crop is mandatory for jockeys to use. Jennifer Morrison's article in the Star explains things a lot better than I can.
I wonder who will be the first jockey to get fined under the new urging rule.
Steven Crist: More Questions Than Answers In Lasix Debate
Excellent read. But whether Lasix is allowed or not, it really doesn't matter, as long as takeout is high. Racing's woes won't be fixed by cleaning up their tarnished image in regards to Lasix masking other drugs.
I'll also add that if racing wasn't so dysfunctional in North America, Lasix would have no place in the game except during workouts.
Don't shoot the messenger.
Finally, the other Canadian blogger who really gets it has written an excellent piece over at the HANA blog on the fact that carnivals are light years ahead of the racing industry when it comes to understanding the customer.
16 July 2009
Ajax Downs Leaves Door Open For Thoroughbred Racing
Ajax Downs VP of Corporate Affairs Nick Coukos was recently interviewed on Trot Radio. He was asked a variety of questions including many to do with the future of the track.
He stated that the reason they are in the midst of making it a 5 furlong track is because they want to be ready in case they get the opportunity to race standardbreds or thoroughbreds.
Standardbreds? Plenty of standardbred tracks in Ontario. But thoroughbred? Is Ajax Downs getting ready to fill the niche that Ontario horsemen will need if Fort Erie decides to close their doors? That is a strong possibility. Very strong.
With Stronach tracks being auctioned off shortly, the few groups or people interested in owning a track will be able to get in and most likely be able to get a nice discount. This coupled with the fact that Nordic has always over priced Fort Erie, I just don't see anyone willing to pay Nordic's price.
When Stronach tracks do sell, the prices they go for might thrust the price Nordic wants into reality. I said might.
One thing is for sure, I don't see there being any money left for Nordic to get handed to them after this year. And I doubt they will operate if they are indeed losing money. The only way I see Nordic operating Fort Erie next year is if the OLG gives them a better cut on slot revenues, and if that could happen, it most likely would have happened earlier this year.
Back to Ajax. They only do around $15,000 in handle a day, but they aren't exporting their signal yet. Coukos said he expects to do that by the end of this year (which probably means the beginning of next year). He says he feels there is only one chance when it comes to marketing his product outside of live racing, and he wants to make sure he does it when the time is right.
Coukos brags that Ajax is giving away in purses more than what Fort Erie is giving a way in purses each racing day. What I found most interesting is that he said that it only costs around half to train a quarter horse as it does a thoroughbred. Does he mean a thoroughbred at Woodbine where the rates are around $80 a day on average, or half of what the rates are at Fort Erie, which averages around $50 a day.
There is an unconfirmed rumour regarding the additional 500 plus slots that Ajax just received: The horsemen will get zilch from those machines.
The OLG Responds To $3.5 Billion Lawsuit Against Them
Again, I just don't see why they offered up the voluntary program then. Didn't they assume responsibility by just having the exclusion program in the first place?
It all depends on how the program form was worded when they first implemented it. I'm sure the OLG changed the wording since the beginning.
And if they aren't responsible, why are they testing out facial recognition technology soon?
Three Strike Program In Australia
A trainer gets a 5 YEAR BAN for milk shaking a horse that wound up finishing fifth. It was his third offense.
Too bad they aren't so tough on cheating trainers in North America.
Harnessdriver.com Chat Board Member Putting A Little Needed Heat On The ORC
Link for Harnessdriver.com
ORC Rules That Claims Can Be Ruled Invalid If Positive Results Are Found In A Drug Test
I think that all claimed horses should be tested, and the industry, not the new claiming outfit, should pay for the tests.
Most claimed horses are top performers. They are most likely to be benefiting from performance enhancing drugs.
Why have an added expense tacked on to someone who is willing to take a chance claiming a horse? Integrity should override everything, and these tests should be mandatory, and it is unfair to burden the new owner with this expense.
Not to mention this comment which may hold some truth in light of the fact that there seems to still be "super trainers" who run horses in Ontario:
Greg Parke SAID...
"Mr. Swinhoe (another commenter) don't waste your money. The sport has really cleaned up it's act or the testing is inadequate to find these types of drugs. Same old story, let the buyer beware, you have a 99-1 shot to finding drugs in a horses system with the testing the way it is."
Great Article: Lasix May Help Some Horses, But Is It Worth It?
Bill Finley may doubt if Lasix works at all. A recent study may have put his doubts to bed, as it did show that Lasix does what it is supposed to do: reduces exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage (EIPH) in racehorses.
But what else does Lasix do?
Oh come over 95% of horses that run in Canada and the US are on it and in every other jurisdiction in the world, it is not needed?
Is it worth the fact that it masks other drugs, and enhances performance, and makes it so that horses who end up using Lasix to run fast (either through anti-bleeding or drug masking) become possible stud and broodmare prospects, who most probably weaken the breed by passing on inheritable flaws to the next generation of horses?
It Feels Good To Be Quoted In A John Pricci Column
Good follow up article regarding past posting. Pricci notes:
Another interesting aside is the fact that there are still a handful of tracks that allow cancel delays (which allows tellers to cancel bets after the race has begun):
Turf Paradise, 8 seconds
Les Bois Park, 5
Bay Meadows, 4
Del Mar, 4
Fairplex Park, 4
Golden Gate, 4
Hollywood Park, 4
North California Fairs, 4
Oak Tree, 4
Portland Meadows, 4
Santa Anita, 4
Yavapai Downs, 4
Gulfstream Park, 3
Many scams have come and gone where astute gamblers, in league with a teller or two, could make bets on contenders, and if the horse doesn't get out of the gate in a good manner, or even jump to the lead out of the gate, the teller simply cancels the ticket.
The fact that this could still happen, is enough reason to close betting at zero minutes to post (the second the 1 MTP disappears).
HANA RACE OF THE WEEK: MOUNTAINEER RACE 2 FRIDAY
We've been picking pools that have been difficult to gauge of late, as to how much power this Pool Party idea has. This week we are going for broke.
We really need support on this one. Early in our campaign we did a race from The Mountain, and according to our calculations we estimate we attracted $15,000 in new money. Please bet this race, because we want to blow that number away.
Mountaineer Race 2 Handicapping Info including Past Performances, Thoro-Graph data here.
Introducing the FREE TrackMaster Players Club
* Track Bias Reports for almost every Thoroughbred race track
* Thoroughbred/Quarter Horse Selections for a handful of races everyday
* Thoroughbred Best Bets reports on selected days
* Audio Selections for New York and California tracks
* Exclusive articles by Steve Davidowitz
* Harness Selections for a handful of races everyday
* StatsMaster, a tool to gather detailed statistics for drivers, trainers and horses from Harness tracks across the country
Chad Beckon Update
Cory Clark on Facebook happily reports that her husband, jockey Chad Beckon, is heading to Toronto today to start rehab.
Beckon was involved in a horrific accident a month ago in a horse race at Woodbine.
Fun Thread On Pace Advantage: Who Is Your Favorite Female Reporter/Analyst In Racing?
He stated that the reason they are in the midst of making it a 5 furlong track is because they want to be ready in case they get the opportunity to race standardbreds or thoroughbreds.
Standardbreds? Plenty of standardbred tracks in Ontario. But thoroughbred? Is Ajax Downs getting ready to fill the niche that Ontario horsemen will need if Fort Erie decides to close their doors? That is a strong possibility. Very strong.
With Stronach tracks being auctioned off shortly, the few groups or people interested in owning a track will be able to get in and most likely be able to get a nice discount. This coupled with the fact that Nordic has always over priced Fort Erie, I just don't see anyone willing to pay Nordic's price.
When Stronach tracks do sell, the prices they go for might thrust the price Nordic wants into reality. I said might.
One thing is for sure, I don't see there being any money left for Nordic to get handed to them after this year. And I doubt they will operate if they are indeed losing money. The only way I see Nordic operating Fort Erie next year is if the OLG gives them a better cut on slot revenues, and if that could happen, it most likely would have happened earlier this year.
Back to Ajax. They only do around $15,000 in handle a day, but they aren't exporting their signal yet. Coukos said he expects to do that by the end of this year (which probably means the beginning of next year). He says he feels there is only one chance when it comes to marketing his product outside of live racing, and he wants to make sure he does it when the time is right.
Coukos brags that Ajax is giving away in purses more than what Fort Erie is giving a way in purses each racing day. What I found most interesting is that he said that it only costs around half to train a quarter horse as it does a thoroughbred. Does he mean a thoroughbred at Woodbine where the rates are around $80 a day on average, or half of what the rates are at Fort Erie, which averages around $50 a day.
There is an unconfirmed rumour regarding the additional 500 plus slots that Ajax just received: The horsemen will get zilch from those machines.
The OLG Responds To $3.5 Billion Lawsuit Against Them
'Gambling addicts who keep coming back to casinos and racetracks despite joining a voluntary list of problem gamblers aren't the responsibility of provincial authorities, the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. says.'
Again, I just don't see why they offered up the voluntary program then. Didn't they assume responsibility by just having the exclusion program in the first place?
It all depends on how the program form was worded when they first implemented it. I'm sure the OLG changed the wording since the beginning.
And if they aren't responsible, why are they testing out facial recognition technology soon?
Three Strike Program In Australia
A trainer gets a 5 YEAR BAN for milk shaking a horse that wound up finishing fifth. It was his third offense.
Too bad they aren't so tough on cheating trainers in North America.
Harnessdriver.com Chat Board Member Putting A Little Needed Heat On The ORC
"Timebomb" a Windsor Ontario racefan has been on a crusade to get the judges of harness racing in the province to call infractions based on the rulebook. If it is in the rulebook and it is not called (the fines and suspensions are published via the web at Standardbred Canada) he is making sure people know about it.
Link for Harnessdriver.com
ORC Rules That Claims Can Be Ruled Invalid If Positive Results Are Found In A Drug Test
I think that all claimed horses should be tested, and the industry, not the new claiming outfit, should pay for the tests.
Most claimed horses are top performers. They are most likely to be benefiting from performance enhancing drugs.
Why have an added expense tacked on to someone who is willing to take a chance claiming a horse? Integrity should override everything, and these tests should be mandatory, and it is unfair to burden the new owner with this expense.
Not to mention this comment which may hold some truth in light of the fact that there seems to still be "super trainers" who run horses in Ontario:
Greg Parke SAID...
"Mr. Swinhoe (another commenter) don't waste your money. The sport has really cleaned up it's act or the testing is inadequate to find these types of drugs. Same old story, let the buyer beware, you have a 99-1 shot to finding drugs in a horses system with the testing the way it is."
Great Article: Lasix May Help Some Horses, But Is It Worth It?
Bill Finley may doubt if Lasix works at all. A recent study may have put his doubts to bed, as it did show that Lasix does what it is supposed to do: reduces exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage (EIPH) in racehorses.
But what else does Lasix do?
Oh come over 95% of horses that run in Canada and the US are on it and in every other jurisdiction in the world, it is not needed?
Is it worth the fact that it masks other drugs, and enhances performance, and makes it so that horses who end up using Lasix to run fast (either through anti-bleeding or drug masking) become possible stud and broodmare prospects, who most probably weaken the breed by passing on inheritable flaws to the next generation of horses?
It Feels Good To Be Quoted In A John Pricci Column
Good follow up article regarding past posting. Pricci notes:
"One interesting aside was that respondents appeared troubled by the “perception” that late-odds drops were the result of past-posting. Sadly, the only inference that can be drawn from that is that horseplayers seem to care more about how false perceptions hurt racing than regulators do."
Another interesting aside is the fact that there are still a handful of tracks that allow cancel delays (which allows tellers to cancel bets after the race has begun):
Turf Paradise, 8 seconds
Les Bois Park, 5
Bay Meadows, 4
Del Mar, 4
Fairplex Park, 4
Golden Gate, 4
Hollywood Park, 4
North California Fairs, 4
Oak Tree, 4
Portland Meadows, 4
Santa Anita, 4
Yavapai Downs, 4
Gulfstream Park, 3
Many scams have come and gone where astute gamblers, in league with a teller or two, could make bets on contenders, and if the horse doesn't get out of the gate in a good manner, or even jump to the lead out of the gate, the teller simply cancels the ticket.
The fact that this could still happen, is enough reason to close betting at zero minutes to post (the second the 1 MTP disappears).
HANA RACE OF THE WEEK: MOUNTAINEER RACE 2 FRIDAY
We've been picking pools that have been difficult to gauge of late, as to how much power this Pool Party idea has. This week we are going for broke.
We really need support on this one. Early in our campaign we did a race from The Mountain, and according to our calculations we estimate we attracted $15,000 in new money. Please bet this race, because we want to blow that number away.
Mountaineer Race 2 Handicapping Info including Past Performances, Thoro-Graph data here.
Introducing the FREE TrackMaster Players Club
* Track Bias Reports for almost every Thoroughbred race track
* Thoroughbred/Quarter Horse Selections for a handful of races everyday
* Thoroughbred Best Bets reports on selected days
* Audio Selections for New York and California tracks
* Exclusive articles by Steve Davidowitz
* Harness Selections for a handful of races everyday
* StatsMaster, a tool to gather detailed statistics for drivers, trainers and horses from Harness tracks across the country
Chad Beckon Update
Cory Clark on Facebook happily reports that her husband, jockey Chad Beckon, is heading to Toronto today to start rehab.
Beckon was involved in a horrific accident a month ago in a horse race at Woodbine.
Fun Thread On Pace Advantage: Who Is Your Favorite Female Reporter/Analyst In Racing?
11 July 2009
Milwaukee Appeal To Win The Prince Of Wales? I Think Yes
Fort Erie Race Track Ready For Their Biggest Day Of The Year
The Prince Of Wales runs tomorrow at The Fort. Although it only has 6 horses, I can see numerous outcomes. It is a tough race. Horses who do well at distances on the Poly don't necessarily have the edge on a dirt track going a distance of ground. I'm still not on the Eye of the Leopard bandwagon, so I'm leaning to the filly, Milwaukee Appeal who figured to bounce a bit in her last race. She does have the best numbers going into this race from two and three starts ago.
The Leopard may in fact bounce too, as Sam Son Farms horses are usually aggressively trained and aren't use to running three tough races in just forty odd days.
Mr. Foricos Two U looks like he'll be able to control the pace, but his sire (as a route sire) turned me off him last time and I'm not about to jump on him here, though he could hang in for third.
I still think Keino West is going to move forward. He was way too far back last time out. If speed comes back, I can see him getting into the second or third.
Selections: 2-6-4
I did pick the exactor last year, so I'm definitely not due tomorrow.
Only 76 horses are racing in 10 races at Woodbine tomorrow barring scratches. Good day to avoid their high takeouts....at least in theory. Even Fort Erie has them beaten out with 78 horses entered tomorrow on Wales Day.
Excellent piece by John Pricci
The article is mostly to do with pool integrity, an issue that HANA is about to be all over soon.
Ajax Downs To Get Another 544 Slot Machines
With Nick Coukos there, Ajax has a perfect chance to grow their betting product. Right now there is an average of around $1500 bet on a race. No real exposure at all. They can change that in a hurry.
Somehow I missed this: OLG To Use Facial Recognition Technology (Biometrics) To Keep Out Problem Gamblers
An experimental test will be conducted in September.
This is of course too late in regards to the large lawsuits against the organization with problem gamblers who signed documents asking the OLG not to let them in.
10,000 people have signed up to be booted off the premises if spotted by OLG staff.
I wonder what percentage these problem gamblers make up of the total revenues generated by places like Woodbine.
If it is big, this could be the catalyst that brings down purses at WEG, and it might motivate the execs to try to really compete on the racing side. They might even get the horsemen to work with them. Horsemen in the USA right are like deer in the headlights. That could easily happen with the Woodbine horsemen. Fort Erie has already experienced that feeling, and unfortunately, that feeling isn't over and done with yet.
Christine Papakyriakou wasn't one of Woodbine's customers. But she will be sentenced next month after being found guilty of stealing $7.4 million from wine company Andrew Peller Ltd.
It seems the gambling bug got to her in a bad way. And instead of accepting responsibility that she is a just a criminal, she is looking at the OLG as being the scapegoat.
'Papakyriakou has launched a $10-million lawsuit against the province, Casino Niagara and Niagara Fallsview Casino Resort alleging they encouraged her to gamble.'
How many Christine's play slots at Woodbine?
Great News For Ohio Racing
Ohio has approved VLTs to be placed in the 7 Ohio race tracks. Those bible belters sure made it difficult, but many of them will be heading to the track now. Of course, that is what they were scared of in the first place.
It hasn't been determined what percentage of VLT profits the tracks and horsemen will receive yet.
Hopefully for them, it will be 10% for each. There purses are just pitiful now, and nobody has been more patient than Ohio tracks and horsemen.
Really Cool Gadget: Streak Calculator; Determines the probability of losing a streak of wagers over the course of a wager series of specified length.
Down The Stretch on-line has some really informative articles in its newest issue.
Well, there is a now humiliating article on Woodbine's Turbo Charged Pick 6 that was obviously done before Woodbine wisely pulled the plug on this losing money fiasco.
"(Sean) Pinsonneault and CFO Steve Mitchell may have dreamed this one up, but there's some logic behind it and when they ran it by President Nick Eaves and CEO David Willmot, there was almost immediate approval."
Who would Donald Trump fire for this? Probably Willmot. He has the final say I believe. Lucky for Willmot, it is a private company and he is a Teflon CEO.
But it is still nice to say "Willmot, you're fired."
There is an informative article on Ajax Downs
Budding cub reporter Perry Lefko has a more in depth article on the three suitors that Fort Erie has right now.
The Prince Of Wales runs tomorrow at The Fort. Although it only has 6 horses, I can see numerous outcomes. It is a tough race. Horses who do well at distances on the Poly don't necessarily have the edge on a dirt track going a distance of ground. I'm still not on the Eye of the Leopard bandwagon, so I'm leaning to the filly, Milwaukee Appeal who figured to bounce a bit in her last race. She does have the best numbers going into this race from two and three starts ago.
The Leopard may in fact bounce too, as Sam Son Farms horses are usually aggressively trained and aren't use to running three tough races in just forty odd days.
Mr. Foricos Two U looks like he'll be able to control the pace, but his sire (as a route sire) turned me off him last time and I'm not about to jump on him here, though he could hang in for third.
I still think Keino West is going to move forward. He was way too far back last time out. If speed comes back, I can see him getting into the second or third.
Selections: 2-6-4
I did pick the exactor last year, so I'm definitely not due tomorrow.
Only 76 horses are racing in 10 races at Woodbine tomorrow barring scratches. Good day to avoid their high takeouts....at least in theory. Even Fort Erie has them beaten out with 78 horses entered tomorrow on Wales Day.
Excellent piece by John Pricci
The article is mostly to do with pool integrity, an issue that HANA is about to be all over soon.
"I argued with the industry official that the majority of players would prefer wagering to be stopped at post time, that even though odds will continue to change late, horseplayers would prefer to know the closing odds before a race starts."
Ajax Downs To Get Another 544 Slot Machines
With Nick Coukos there, Ajax has a perfect chance to grow their betting product. Right now there is an average of around $1500 bet on a race. No real exposure at all. They can change that in a hurry.
Somehow I missed this: OLG To Use Facial Recognition Technology (Biometrics) To Keep Out Problem Gamblers
An experimental test will be conducted in September.
This is of course too late in regards to the large lawsuits against the organization with problem gamblers who signed documents asking the OLG not to let them in.
10,000 people have signed up to be booted off the premises if spotted by OLG staff.
I wonder what percentage these problem gamblers make up of the total revenues generated by places like Woodbine.
If it is big, this could be the catalyst that brings down purses at WEG, and it might motivate the execs to try to really compete on the racing side. They might even get the horsemen to work with them. Horsemen in the USA right are like deer in the headlights. That could easily happen with the Woodbine horsemen. Fort Erie has already experienced that feeling, and unfortunately, that feeling isn't over and done with yet.
Christine Papakyriakou wasn't one of Woodbine's customers. But she will be sentenced next month after being found guilty of stealing $7.4 million from wine company Andrew Peller Ltd.
It seems the gambling bug got to her in a bad way. And instead of accepting responsibility that she is a just a criminal, she is looking at the OLG as being the scapegoat.
'Papakyriakou has launched a $10-million lawsuit against the province, Casino Niagara and Niagara Fallsview Casino Resort alleging they encouraged her to gamble.'
How many Christine's play slots at Woodbine?
Great News For Ohio Racing
Ohio has approved VLTs to be placed in the 7 Ohio race tracks. Those bible belters sure made it difficult, but many of them will be heading to the track now. Of course, that is what they were scared of in the first place.
It hasn't been determined what percentage of VLT profits the tracks and horsemen will receive yet.
Hopefully for them, it will be 10% for each. There purses are just pitiful now, and nobody has been more patient than Ohio tracks and horsemen.
Really Cool Gadget: Streak Calculator; Determines the probability of losing a streak of wagers over the course of a wager series of specified length.
Down The Stretch on-line has some really informative articles in its newest issue.
Well, there is a now humiliating article on Woodbine's Turbo Charged Pick 6 that was obviously done before Woodbine wisely pulled the plug on this losing money fiasco.
"(Sean) Pinsonneault and CFO Steve Mitchell may have dreamed this one up, but there's some logic behind it and when they ran it by President Nick Eaves and CEO David Willmot, there was almost immediate approval."
Who would Donald Trump fire for this? Probably Willmot. He has the final say I believe. Lucky for Willmot, it is a private company and he is a Teflon CEO.
But it is still nice to say "Willmot, you're fired."
There is an informative article on Ajax Downs
Budding cub reporter Perry Lefko has a more in depth article on the three suitors that Fort Erie has right now.
16 June 2009
Woodbine To Jump Start Pick 6 Pools
In a huge move, Woodbine has decided to contribute $150,000 to their, now weekly, Pick 6 pools starting this Sunday.
The Pick 6 pools have been a dismal failure up until now as it took a good 25 racing days for the pool to climb to $100,000. At Woodbine it is hard enough to grab a Pick 3 let alone a $2 Pick 6. Meanwhile, California tracks always gets huge pools, even if it is the first day of a carryover.
This now makes Woodbine's Pick 6 one of the best bets in racing today as bettors are pretty much starting off with a positive takeout, until $600,000 is in the jackpot, as the takeout is 25% for this bet.
On Queen's Plate day, this Sunday, we could see a pool of around $500,000, even more. It will be interesting.
"70 percent of the pick six pool will be allocated to ticket holders with six winners, with the remaining 30 percent to be distributed in consolation payoffs."
If someone hits the Pick 6, Woodbine will replenish the pool the following Sunday after it is hit until the end of this year.
"Our purpose is to raise awareness of Woodbine, predominantly in the United States, where it's sometimes a struggle to get eyes on our product," said Steve Mitchell, CFO of WEG.
Since WEG wants to raise awareness to US bettors, I think I can help a bit:)
Woodbine's Track Takeout (remember, they have slots)
Win Place Show 16.95%
Exactors 20.5%
Triactors 27.0% Ranked 66 out of 71 tracks
Superfectas 26.3% Ranked 64 out of 71 tracks
Pick 3's 26.3% Ranked 68 out of 71 tracks
Pick 4 and 6 25.0%
Keeneland (HANA's number 1 rated track; no slots)
Win Place Show 16.0%
All other bets 19.0%
Definitely, bet the Woodbine Pick 6, if you are so inclined, but keep your hands in your pockets or tread lightly if you bet triactors, supers, or Pick 3's.
Fort Erie Update
I forgot to report a couple of weeks ago that the consortium looking to buy Fort Erie race track waived the June 11th deadline.
In other words, there was no way in hell that they were going to get $35 million guaranteed by the government for the purchase.
So now what?
Nordic gets to keep the $2.5 million they extorted from various parties to keep racing going this year at the Fort.
The Consortium and the HBPA are now trying to come up with a viable solution to keep racing going for a long time. Noble as it may seem, they are really at square one, as they have to come up with dough to buy Nordic out. Whether it comes from one investor who buys the track, or a bunch of investors who buy bits and pieces, they need to most likely come up with a still unrealistic sum of money that Nordic will accept.
The $35 million was a joke, and with the Magna tracks coming onto the market soon, there are only so many buyers willing to buy a racetrack, so the demand for Fort Erie is definitely not great, especially when dealing with Nordic, who historically have overvalued the track by huge sums.
I think the governments participation as guarantor will depend on a couple of things. The price, and how close Fort Erie's bottom line is to break even. And it would have to be very close to break even if the government is to back them.
Again, the only real solution is to give Fort Erie a bigger cut of the revenues from slots, something the OLG doesn't seem to want to entertain.
Speaking of the OLG, they finally awarded the jackpot money to the person who thought he won 2 $1 million jackpots. He got what he was supposed to had there not been a "glitch": $5000.
UPDATE on Chad Beckon
Chad Beckon was involved in a terrible spill last night (Wednesday) at Woodbine. From the Toronto Star:
'Agent Tony Esposito said Beckon was alert immediately following the spill but began drifting in and out of consciousness before being admitted to Sunnybrook's critical care unit. He was to receive a CT scan this morning.
Beckon has two broken vertebrae, a broken nose and cheekbone and "some outer cranial bleeding," Esposito said.
"There's no internal bleeding, no internal injuries that we know and he's been X-rayed from head-to-toe. The only fractures are his face and spine," Esposito said.'
Full article here
The Pick 6 pools have been a dismal failure up until now as it took a good 25 racing days for the pool to climb to $100,000. At Woodbine it is hard enough to grab a Pick 3 let alone a $2 Pick 6. Meanwhile, California tracks always gets huge pools, even if it is the first day of a carryover.
This now makes Woodbine's Pick 6 one of the best bets in racing today as bettors are pretty much starting off with a positive takeout, until $600,000 is in the jackpot, as the takeout is 25% for this bet.
On Queen's Plate day, this Sunday, we could see a pool of around $500,000, even more. It will be interesting.
"70 percent of the pick six pool will be allocated to ticket holders with six winners, with the remaining 30 percent to be distributed in consolation payoffs."
If someone hits the Pick 6, Woodbine will replenish the pool the following Sunday after it is hit until the end of this year.
"Our purpose is to raise awareness of Woodbine, predominantly in the United States, where it's sometimes a struggle to get eyes on our product," said Steve Mitchell, CFO of WEG.
Since WEG wants to raise awareness to US bettors, I think I can help a bit:)
Woodbine's Track Takeout (remember, they have slots)
Win Place Show 16.95%
Exactors 20.5%
Triactors 27.0% Ranked 66 out of 71 tracks
Superfectas 26.3% Ranked 64 out of 71 tracks
Pick 3's 26.3% Ranked 68 out of 71 tracks
Pick 4 and 6 25.0%
Keeneland (HANA's number 1 rated track; no slots)
Win Place Show 16.0%
All other bets 19.0%
Definitely, bet the Woodbine Pick 6, if you are so inclined, but keep your hands in your pockets or tread lightly if you bet triactors, supers, or Pick 3's.
Fort Erie Update
I forgot to report a couple of weeks ago that the consortium looking to buy Fort Erie race track waived the June 11th deadline.
In other words, there was no way in hell that they were going to get $35 million guaranteed by the government for the purchase.
So now what?
Nordic gets to keep the $2.5 million they extorted from various parties to keep racing going this year at the Fort.
The Consortium and the HBPA are now trying to come up with a viable solution to keep racing going for a long time. Noble as it may seem, they are really at square one, as they have to come up with dough to buy Nordic out. Whether it comes from one investor who buys the track, or a bunch of investors who buy bits and pieces, they need to most likely come up with a still unrealistic sum of money that Nordic will accept.
The $35 million was a joke, and with the Magna tracks coming onto the market soon, there are only so many buyers willing to buy a racetrack, so the demand for Fort Erie is definitely not great, especially when dealing with Nordic, who historically have overvalued the track by huge sums.
I think the governments participation as guarantor will depend on a couple of things. The price, and how close Fort Erie's bottom line is to break even. And it would have to be very close to break even if the government is to back them.
Again, the only real solution is to give Fort Erie a bigger cut of the revenues from slots, something the OLG doesn't seem to want to entertain.
Speaking of the OLG, they finally awarded the jackpot money to the person who thought he won 2 $1 million jackpots. He got what he was supposed to had there not been a "glitch": $5000.
UPDATE on Chad Beckon
Chad Beckon was involved in a terrible spill last night (Wednesday) at Woodbine. From the Toronto Star:
'Agent Tony Esposito said Beckon was alert immediately following the spill but began drifting in and out of consciousness before being admitted to Sunnybrook's critical care unit. He was to receive a CT scan this morning.
Beckon has two broken vertebrae, a broken nose and cheekbone and "some outer cranial bleeding," Esposito said.
"There's no internal bleeding, no internal injuries that we know and he's been X-rayed from head-to-toe. The only fractures are his face and spine," Esposito said.'
Full article here
21 April 2009
Ontario Lottery And Gaming Could Be In Deep Doo Doo
$3.5 Billion Lawsuit Looks Good From The Plaintiffs Side
A $3.5-billion lawsuit against the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. on behalf of more than 10,000 problem gamblers - with ramifications for many thousands more across Canada - reveals a devastating glimpse into a lucrative government business that leaves some of its best customers in financial ruin.......
Aubrey Dennis 49, a Markham man, lost a big whack of dough playing slots mainly at Woodbine and Casino Rama. He is the one who launched this lawsuit on behalf of gamblers on the self exclusion list.
After losing an estimated half a million he eventually signed the self exclusion contract, and was photographed and told that if he was seen at an OLG casino he would be charged with trespassing.
He was only turned away once (a bus to Casino Rama), but even on that day he wound up going to Woodbine instead.
He proceeded to lose a couple of homes and his job.
The fact that the OLG was stupid enough to have a self exclusion form that they obviously couldn't/wouldn't enforce properly puts them in a very bad situation in my opinion.
Personally, I'm not sympathetic to Mr. Dennis either. He knew he had a problem, but still went to the casinos obviously hoping they wouldn't turn him away. He may gain here because the system stinks. The fact that our society thinks they need to have these types of lists is ludicrous. I mean, how can you stop someone from losing their rent money and food money on lotteries? Until we utilize fingerprint technology, it is completely unrealistic for society to stop a problem gambler from gambling. And the OLG should have known this before OKing the self exclusion program.
The OLG profited over $2 billion last year, so $3.5 billion is still a lot. A similar but smaller lawsuit was filed previously by Joseph Keyes, who signed the self exclusion document. He settled out of court for an undisclosed amount. I have no idea what the OLG will use as a defense for this one.
For those who don't know, 20% of slot profits in Ontario are split between the racetrack and the horsemen.
In related news, a gambling postie in Calgary gets to spend time in jail for stealing mail and forging checks.
Friends Of Fort Erie Thoroughbred Racing
The EDTC of Fort Erie, in an attempt to put a plan together that will look good enough to the government, that they will guarantee a $35 million purchase plan of Fort Erie race track by the EDTC, has put together a web page asking for suggestions on how to improve the bottom line at "The Fort."
I sent a couple of suggestions regarding post times. I have more. They have my number. Here is the suggestion box page.
Speaking of Fort Erie, opening day is just around the corner. The first Saturday of May (same as the Kentucky Derby).
Some of the Fort Erie jockeys are seen in this Youtube video working on their fitness and timing:
OK, that was just a mild attempt at humour. It does look like fun. Maybe this could count as another idea for Fort Erie. This would be a great attraction for kids, though I'm not sure how insurance companies would handle the danger aspect of it. These inflatable horses are unpredictable, and a child still risks serious danger, though it is highly improbable, it could still happen, helmets or no helmets.
Good news for bettors; bad news for business that don't want to compete like Woodbine: Canada May Get On-Line Gambling.
Wagering drops in New York OTBs. Didn't they just raise takeouts "thinking" it would mean more money for the OTBs and the state? Morons. Sure the economy has something to do with it. So does competition as New York residents can actually get rebates or rewards by sitting at home and playing with ADWs like Twinspires, Youbet and Premier Turf Club amongst others. The OTB's cry that they can't compete with them is complete hogwash.
Semi success story: Heather Takashi used up her savings to buy a broodmare, patiently sat on the broodmare until breeding her and producing a pretty nice foal who has gone on to win considerable dough. Skill, luck, and patience is the key to making money as an owner (Luck is the number one factor by a country mile).
H/T Jen's ThoroughBlog
Winning Ponies (an internet radio program) hosted by Ed Meyer recently interviewed Chantal Sutherland: Click here and listen to it.
Don't forget to check out the free Past Performance available by clicking here thanks to Brisnet.
The Daily Racing Form has a free page that shows profiles of the contenders, including their last couple of Beyer numbers and video links as well.
Jeff Mullins gets 7 day hand slap for dissing the rules. NYRA may impose further sanctions.
Stalking bid dropped for Magna Entertainment. Stronach appears to be a goner now, as he lost leverage to play more games. Good.
A $3.5-billion lawsuit against the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. on behalf of more than 10,000 problem gamblers - with ramifications for many thousands more across Canada - reveals a devastating glimpse into a lucrative government business that leaves some of its best customers in financial ruin.......
Aubrey Dennis 49, a Markham man, lost a big whack of dough playing slots mainly at Woodbine and Casino Rama. He is the one who launched this lawsuit on behalf of gamblers on the self exclusion list.
After losing an estimated half a million he eventually signed the self exclusion contract, and was photographed and told that if he was seen at an OLG casino he would be charged with trespassing.
He was only turned away once (a bus to Casino Rama), but even on that day he wound up going to Woodbine instead.
He proceeded to lose a couple of homes and his job.
The fact that the OLG was stupid enough to have a self exclusion form that they obviously couldn't/wouldn't enforce properly puts them in a very bad situation in my opinion.
Personally, I'm not sympathetic to Mr. Dennis either. He knew he had a problem, but still went to the casinos obviously hoping they wouldn't turn him away. He may gain here because the system stinks. The fact that our society thinks they need to have these types of lists is ludicrous. I mean, how can you stop someone from losing their rent money and food money on lotteries? Until we utilize fingerprint technology, it is completely unrealistic for society to stop a problem gambler from gambling. And the OLG should have known this before OKing the self exclusion program.
The OLG profited over $2 billion last year, so $3.5 billion is still a lot. A similar but smaller lawsuit was filed previously by Joseph Keyes, who signed the self exclusion document. He settled out of court for an undisclosed amount. I have no idea what the OLG will use as a defense for this one.
For those who don't know, 20% of slot profits in Ontario are split between the racetrack and the horsemen.
In related news, a gambling postie in Calgary gets to spend time in jail for stealing mail and forging checks.
Friends Of Fort Erie Thoroughbred Racing
The EDTC of Fort Erie, in an attempt to put a plan together that will look good enough to the government, that they will guarantee a $35 million purchase plan of Fort Erie race track by the EDTC, has put together a web page asking for suggestions on how to improve the bottom line at "The Fort."
I sent a couple of suggestions regarding post times. I have more. They have my number. Here is the suggestion box page.
Speaking of Fort Erie, opening day is just around the corner. The first Saturday of May (same as the Kentucky Derby).
Some of the Fort Erie jockeys are seen in this Youtube video working on their fitness and timing:
OK, that was just a mild attempt at humour. It does look like fun. Maybe this could count as another idea for Fort Erie. This would be a great attraction for kids, though I'm not sure how insurance companies would handle the danger aspect of it. These inflatable horses are unpredictable, and a child still risks serious danger, though it is highly improbable, it could still happen, helmets or no helmets.
Good news for bettors; bad news for business that don't want to compete like Woodbine: Canada May Get On-Line Gambling.
Wagering drops in New York OTBs. Didn't they just raise takeouts "thinking" it would mean more money for the OTBs and the state? Morons. Sure the economy has something to do with it. So does competition as New York residents can actually get rebates or rewards by sitting at home and playing with ADWs like Twinspires, Youbet and Premier Turf Club amongst others. The OTB's cry that they can't compete with them is complete hogwash.
Semi success story: Heather Takashi used up her savings to buy a broodmare, patiently sat on the broodmare until breeding her and producing a pretty nice foal who has gone on to win considerable dough. Skill, luck, and patience is the key to making money as an owner (Luck is the number one factor by a country mile).
H/T Jen's ThoroughBlog
Winning Ponies (an internet radio program) hosted by Ed Meyer recently interviewed Chantal Sutherland: Click here and listen to it.
Don't forget to check out the free Past Performance available by clicking here thanks to Brisnet.
The Daily Racing Form has a free page that shows profiles of the contenders, including their last couple of Beyer numbers and video links as well.
Jeff Mullins gets 7 day hand slap for dissing the rules. NYRA may impose further sanctions.
Stalking bid dropped for Magna Entertainment. Stronach appears to be a goner now, as he lost leverage to play more games. Good.
9 March 2009
Will Fort Erie Race In 2009? The 11th Hour Is Approaching Fast
Fort Erie Update
Interesting. OLG in Fort Erie has advertised for a Customer Relations Manager. It comes with a one year contract. I'm wondering if the contract is automatically terminated if there are no customers.
Nordic has until March 16th to announce whether or not there will be racing at Fort Erie in 2009. Their ability to run as a racetrack terminates March 31st if they state there will be no racing.
As stated previously on this blog, I can't see how the slots will be allowed to operate without live racing. It would be a terrible precedence where a track can say they lose money overall because of live racing. This opens the door to many tracks in Ontario to shut down their track operation and keep the profits made on slots.
So is the fact that a Customer Relations Manager is being sought a positive, do they expect live racing to continue? Or does this mean that the former CRM left the ship and the OLG is filling the position by law? Or does it mean that the OLG will keep slots going regardless of whether live racing in Fort Erie takes place?
Nordic would love it, if they just had slots. They would be making a profit.
Ongoing negotiations are still going on. It is approaching the 11th hour however. Nordic is impossible to deal with it seems. And the government hasn't helped because they've put Nordic in a power position by not announcing that slots would officially close without live racing.
Is Woodbine waiting in the lurk? Is it possible that they can come in and lease the business operation for at least 2009? Maybe Eugene Melnyk can come in and buy the place, and change the name to some street in the Bahamas.
Of course, the OLG can get racing to go for the foreseeable future by upping Fort Erie's take from the slot revenues.
Kentucky drops bills that would increase takeout.
Don't think for a second this move has nothing to do with HANA, and especially the top 20 racetrack list where Kentucky tracks received prominent ratings (thanks to their lower takeout rates compared to the rest of North America). Of course, Keeneland was number one. They put a quick 15 second promo on TVG up mentioning this:
Beyer article on Magna bankruptcy. Stronach might have had good intentions, but he was a terrible visionary. And now he left the racing industry in a carpet bombed state (my words, not his).
The Business of Horse Racing makes a good case to show that Stronach is still not letting go. Far from it. What the bankruptcy of Magna Entertainment really means.
For a lot more on the bankruptcy, go to Equidaily and scroll to around the middle of the page.
Ray Paulick has details on the creditors and also mentions that major MID shareholders aren't too happy with the go forward plans.
Business likely to struggle badly in a recession? Especially those involved in a dysfunctional industry to begin with aka horse racing.
Turfway cuts purses. Low field size, brought on by low purses to begin with, the likely culprit.
Interesting. OLG in Fort Erie has advertised for a Customer Relations Manager. It comes with a one year contract. I'm wondering if the contract is automatically terminated if there are no customers.
Nordic has until March 16th to announce whether or not there will be racing at Fort Erie in 2009. Their ability to run as a racetrack terminates March 31st if they state there will be no racing.
As stated previously on this blog, I can't see how the slots will be allowed to operate without live racing. It would be a terrible precedence where a track can say they lose money overall because of live racing. This opens the door to many tracks in Ontario to shut down their track operation and keep the profits made on slots.
So is the fact that a Customer Relations Manager is being sought a positive, do they expect live racing to continue? Or does this mean that the former CRM left the ship and the OLG is filling the position by law? Or does it mean that the OLG will keep slots going regardless of whether live racing in Fort Erie takes place?
Nordic would love it, if they just had slots. They would be making a profit.
Ongoing negotiations are still going on. It is approaching the 11th hour however. Nordic is impossible to deal with it seems. And the government hasn't helped because they've put Nordic in a power position by not announcing that slots would officially close without live racing.
Is Woodbine waiting in the lurk? Is it possible that they can come in and lease the business operation for at least 2009? Maybe Eugene Melnyk can come in and buy the place, and change the name to some street in the Bahamas.
Of course, the OLG can get racing to go for the foreseeable future by upping Fort Erie's take from the slot revenues.
Kentucky drops bills that would increase takeout.
Don't think for a second this move has nothing to do with HANA, and especially the top 20 racetrack list where Kentucky tracks received prominent ratings (thanks to their lower takeout rates compared to the rest of North America). Of course, Keeneland was number one. They put a quick 15 second promo on TVG up mentioning this:
Beyer article on Magna bankruptcy. Stronach might have had good intentions, but he was a terrible visionary. And now he left the racing industry in a carpet bombed state (my words, not his).
The Business of Horse Racing makes a good case to show that Stronach is still not letting go. Far from it. What the bankruptcy of Magna Entertainment really means.
For a lot more on the bankruptcy, go to Equidaily and scroll to around the middle of the page.
Ray Paulick has details on the creditors and also mentions that major MID shareholders aren't too happy with the go forward plans.
Business likely to struggle badly in a recession? Especially those involved in a dysfunctional industry to begin with aka horse racing.
Turfway cuts purses. Low field size, brought on by low purses to begin with, the likely culprit.
25 February 2009
Slots Will Have To Close If Fort Erie Doesn't Race
There is absolutely no way that slots can remain open if Fort Erie were to not race this year. The reason is pretty simple. It creates a horrible precedence.
What is to stop Windsor or other tracks from cooking their books a bit (or maybe legitimately having losses), showing a loss, and then stating they won't run races because they are losing money???????
Even Woodbine can get in on the action and move some numbers around to show that Mohawk loses money. What could the government do to prevent them from closing the racing operations, if Nordic can close the doors on horse racing but continue raking in the dough from slots?
It wouldn't take a lot for bigger corporations like Great Canadian Gaming or WEG to be able turn their tracks into bottom line losing operations. How much of a loss would it take for them to halt racing thanks to this potential precedence? How about a dollar or more.
The government needs to tell Nordic like it is. Without live horse racing there can be no slots. Right now, Nordic is using the non commitment by the government as a negotiating tool. The fate of the slots needs to be addressed now, before any further negotiations take place.
The government doesn't want to lose out on the slots revenues. They also don't want to be responsible for another 300 casino employees being out of work. But they have no choice because we could easily see another 10 tracks feint overall losses in the near future, and that would tread completely against why slots were put into tracks in the first place.
The government must make a stand NOW! By not giving a definite as to whether the slots remain open, the price of the track is also a big question mark. Nordic says they lose money even with the $4 million they get from slots each year. A company that loses money isn't worth much. Especially with the realistic little upside that the track has as is (the land can't be worth that much because Woodbine sold the place to Fort Erie over 10 years ago for $10 and assumption of $3 million in debt). But a company that nets $2-3 million a year (and this would be the case for Nordic if it can operate without live racing), is worth anything from $16 million to $25 million.
The least the government needs to do is to fine any racino owner their entire slots cut if they do not have live races. Then Nordic would be forced to be the ones to decide to cut off the slots. This would be due the fact that their property taxes would remain high if the slots operate, but would go down immensely if they were not operating any business on the property.
Here is an update from the Ontario HBPA site:
Good Morning Horsepeople,
The breakdown of negotiations yesterday regarding the purchase of Fort Erie Racetrack from Nordic was disappointing, but not entirely a surprise to all of us involved in the process.
For Clarification:
* The HBPA has been fully apprised and engaged in all negotiations.
* The HBPA fully supports the steps and position taken by the EDTC.
* The rhetoric coming out of Nordic is at best, misleading.
* The EDTC did NOT withdraw the offer. The offer made to Nordic had an 11am on Monday February 23rd deadline. Nordic failed to respond by that deadline.
* The Province is the key to the ongoing success at Fort Erie. The Province & our regulator, the ORC, are fully apprised of the developments.
* Negotiations among all parties will continue and are ongoing as we speak
We, the horsepeople, and particularly, right now, the Fort Erie horsepeople are amazingly committed. You are resilient, proud and dedicated to both our industry and especially to the horses. Now, you have also demonstrated incredible patience.
We can’t promise the final outcome of Fort Erie, but we can promise the effort to save Fort Erie will be fought to the bitter end. I personally, will not be deterred or intimidated by criticism, public posturing, or set backs such as yesterdays.
Please continue to refer to our website.
Respectfully yours,
Sue Leslie
President
******************************************
Good for Sue Leslie and calling Nordic liars. If they lie in press releases, imagine what they do with their books. There is no way they are losing the kind of money they claim legitimately.
I have a feeling the government is trying hard, and they thought Nordic was going to accept the deal on Monday.
At a trade show in Niagara Falls last Thursday, Michael Bryant, the province's minister of economic development and Government House Leader said:
.... 'the province provided $2 million to the Fort Erie Economic Development and Tourism Corporation to assist with negotiations to save the Fort Erie Race Track and the Niagara Economic Development Corporation has also received more than $1.9 million to apply to business initiatives.'
"The government has to act now and as quickly as possible, we're investing literally billions of dollars...."
(In an interview with This Week, Bryant said the province is continuing to work on keeping the track in Fort Erie open and residents can expect an announcement as early as next week.) Note: It looks like he was expecting a positive outcome, but obviously that was not the case.
"Fort Erie and potential opportunities with the race track has the government's full attention."
So what are the options?
Fort Erie closes and the slots close. Fort Erie becomes a ghost town. Nordic is stuck with a lot of real estate that will become more and more worthless each day. The Ontario thoroughbred industry will also suffer more. Breeders will have less of a market to sell to. Owners with horses not capable of running at Woodbine will be forced to race in the states. Less owners, less interest in racing overall.
Fort Erie closes but slots remain open. Again, the precedence this would bring with it would cause many tracks in Ontario to at least think about closing the racing side of their operation.
Nordic sells the track. Realistically, it won't happen because Nordic has historically wanted too much money. If the government is intending to buy though, it is to their own best interest to state that without racing there will be no slots, as this will force Nordic to sell at a more realistic level.
Nordic decides to race in 2009 and absorb another year of supposed losses. And pigs can fly.
The government makes an exception for thoroughbred border tracks (ie Fort Erie), where Nordic and the horsemen are to split 35-40% of the slot revenues instead of the usual 20%. This seems like a no-brainer. If the government sincerely wants to keep Fort Erie open, this is what they must do. The government needs to pressure the OLG in changing the slots revenues arrangement NOW!
As for precedence. Again, Fort Erie is an exceptional case being the only other thoroughbred track in Ontario, and the government can deem its existence crucial to the entire thoroughbred industry in Ontario. End of story.
Down The Stretch has a new issue online with an article by Perry Lefko on Fort Erie's current plight.
23 January 2009
HANA Begins To Unveil Top 20 Bettor Friendly Race Tracks
HANA presents the first annual HANA Track Ratings
65 thoroughbred race tracks in North America have been rated in order of how appealing they are to the average bettor. There is a countdown right now at the HANA blog, starting with the 20th rated track, Sam Houston.
If anyone expects Woodbine to make the top 20, let me put you out of your misery right now. It aint gonna happen. Not with a track takeout on triactors of 28.3%.
Check the Hana blog every day to view the top 20 countdown.
If anyone is interested how the ratings were calculated, read here.
Internet Poker Still Legal For Kentucky Residents
'The appellate court ruling said Kentucky lacks jurisdiction to block online gambling because state law does not define an Internet domain name as a gambling device subject to state authority.'
Betfair is rumoured to be buying TVG. They plan an aggressive marketing campaign in Canada as they try to lure poker and sports bettors.
They are also looking to sign deals with horse racing organizations in North America, which will give USA and Canadian tracks a chance to get some of the Betfair profits.
Woodbine will never sign with them unless they stop taking bets from Canadians, and that isn't about to happen I would think.
Federal Government To Give Summerside Raceway in PEI $1.5 million in funding
TrackNet about to cut off Las Vegas signals
Like Vegas gives a flying fark. They will still have the other tracks available for their customers, and lets not forget Vegas has a few other ways in which their customers can lose their money and still have a good time.
TrackNet is going to lose out big time because of their actions.
TwinSpires To Offer Free Video of this Weekend's Handicapping Contest In Vegas.
Long time Ontario trainer Norman Bowles, 69, dead of a heart attack. R.I.P.
Nick Kling asks if new steroid rules responsible for early speed horse's inability to win races at Aqueduct and Gulfstream
H/T Equidaily
Feds Say Buffalo Casino Can Remain Open
Not good for Fort Erie even if the track stays alive. This means slot revenues may continue to dwindle. Hopefully, the government will make the OLG change the revenue distribution, and somehow make Fort Erie an exception (border town yadda yadda the only other thoroughbred track in Ontario yadda yadda yadda).
Sources say that there will be a positive announcement come Monday regarding racing at Fort Erie.
All the government has to do is OK 3.2 million dollars if Nordic is still the owner for 2009 to keep racing going for at least a year.
A long term solution of course is sought.
Three possibilities.
A sale. EDTC $35 million? I doubt it. $100,000 per acre? Found a property near the track for $61,000 per acre (note: not sold). Woodbine, possibly.
Government gets Nordic to lease out the track for say 3 years to management that attempts to make Nordic profitable, where the government guarantees any losses in the meanwhile.
The OLG gives Fort Erie a different deal. 17.5% of the slot profits to the horsemen and 17.5% to Nordic would be acceptable and make sense.
65 thoroughbred race tracks in North America have been rated in order of how appealing they are to the average bettor. There is a countdown right now at the HANA blog, starting with the 20th rated track, Sam Houston.
If anyone expects Woodbine to make the top 20, let me put you out of your misery right now. It aint gonna happen. Not with a track takeout on triactors of 28.3%.
Check the Hana blog every day to view the top 20 countdown.
If anyone is interested how the ratings were calculated, read here.
Internet Poker Still Legal For Kentucky Residents
'The appellate court ruling said Kentucky lacks jurisdiction to block online gambling because state law does not define an Internet domain name as a gambling device subject to state authority.'
Betfair is rumoured to be buying TVG. They plan an aggressive marketing campaign in Canada as they try to lure poker and sports bettors.
They are also looking to sign deals with horse racing organizations in North America, which will give USA and Canadian tracks a chance to get some of the Betfair profits.
Woodbine will never sign with them unless they stop taking bets from Canadians, and that isn't about to happen I would think.
Federal Government To Give Summerside Raceway in PEI $1.5 million in funding
TrackNet about to cut off Las Vegas signals
Like Vegas gives a flying fark. They will still have the other tracks available for their customers, and lets not forget Vegas has a few other ways in which their customers can lose their money and still have a good time.
TrackNet is going to lose out big time because of their actions.
TwinSpires To Offer Free Video of this Weekend's Handicapping Contest In Vegas.
Long time Ontario trainer Norman Bowles, 69, dead of a heart attack. R.I.P.
Nick Kling asks if new steroid rules responsible for early speed horse's inability to win races at Aqueduct and Gulfstream
H/T Equidaily
Feds Say Buffalo Casino Can Remain Open
Not good for Fort Erie even if the track stays alive. This means slot revenues may continue to dwindle. Hopefully, the government will make the OLG change the revenue distribution, and somehow make Fort Erie an exception (border town yadda yadda the only other thoroughbred track in Ontario yadda yadda yadda).
Sources say that there will be a positive announcement come Monday regarding racing at Fort Erie.
All the government has to do is OK 3.2 million dollars if Nordic is still the owner for 2009 to keep racing going for at least a year.
A long term solution of course is sought.
Three possibilities.
A sale. EDTC $35 million? I doubt it. $100,000 per acre? Found a property near the track for $61,000 per acre (note: not sold). Woodbine, possibly.
Government gets Nordic to lease out the track for say 3 years to management that attempts to make Nordic profitable, where the government guarantees any losses in the meanwhile.
The OLG gives Fort Erie a different deal. 17.5% of the slot profits to the horsemen and 17.5% to Nordic would be acceptable and make sense.
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