10 November 2007

Slots Open Up At Hastings; NFL Picks For Week 10; Lots More

Hastings opens temporary slots parlour

Recommendations for the restructuring of the Ontario TIP Program I like the idea of changing things back to Ontario bred instead of Ontario sired (though this may inevitably hurt small breeders because more mares might go over the border for higher quality studs and come back to foal here, like Stronach and Sam Son often do with their mares). And increasing the potential winnings for Ontario breds is a very good idea too. But I really don't like the way they are trying to take away incentives to claim an Ontario bred horse. I'm also not sure if one is to lose out on incentives if a horse is bought privately (not in a sale) either. By giving incentives to claim Ontario bred horses as well, the value of all Ontario bred horses will rise, benefiting everyone who buys Ontario horses while rewarding a large amount of owners and potential owners, instead of a smaller percentage of owners/breeders. The idea of taking away incentives if a horse is claimed will not increase the amount of owners in the game, in fact, it may drive a few away. If an owner doesn't want his or her horse claimed, they can run them in allowance races. Horses inevitably should run for what they are worth, this creates a lot more potential owners. More owners means potentially more horsemen at future sales.
And once more, there should be Ontario bred claiming races as well. It gives the owners of Ontario breds a better chance to get out on his or her horse. It also increases the value the value of all Ontario breds because it drives up the price of the lowest priced horses. Almost every other jurisdiction gets it, but Ontario is ruled by those who shun claiming and the little guy, and they don't get the big picture either.
Unfortunately, committees who come up with these restructuring ideas are those who worry about their own interest and not the interest of the masses or the game itself.

TRACK TAKEOUTS for various tracks in North America. Fort Erie isn't included on the list right now. It is near impossible to find one source that includes every track up to date when it comes to takeouts, but Track Thieves has done a great job so far in compiling a list. Check Woodbine triactor takeout (28.3%). What a rip off.

Kissin Kris to stand in Alberta next year.

New Brunswick to get rid of 650 slot machines. Province wants to cap total slot machines at 2000.

Poker revenues up at Mountaineer, but Pennsylvania slots competition hitting Mountaineer's bottom line.

Calder to cut purses 7%

Promising 2 year old trotter Timeless Winner dies suddenly. Food poisoning suspected.

Great Canadian Gaming announces improved 3rd quarter results.

I just saw this video, and it really made me sick. I'm hesitantly posting it here because I don't know if many people who watch horse racing realize how dangerous the sport is, and especially how dangerous it is when a horse unseats the rider and heads in the wrong direction. I've seen this happen live (and luckily without disaster), and I've noticed many in the crowd go "Yee Haw" as the riderless horse heads in the wrong direction past the grandstand.
The tragedy some are about to see happened 7 years ago at Prescott Downs. Here is a description first:

Stacy Burton had been living her childhood dream of being a jockey for only a
year when she was injured in a horrific head-on collision of horses on Aug. 26, 2000.
The freak accident occurred in a race for $2,000 claimers at Prescott Downs (now
known as Yavapai Downs) in Arizona. A horse named Pacific Wind, who was trailing the
field, fell over the sloppy track, then regained her feet and started running in the opposite
direction over the half-mile track. Pacific Wind collided with Burton’s mount, Lot o
Love. The accident left Stacy with a severe brain injury, three fractured vertebrae and two
fractured ribs. In a coma for 23 days, she was not expected to survive.
“She’s a miracle. She should not be here,” said Jan Hortyk, who has been caring
for Stacy since the accident.
Today, at the age 44 and with more than 20 surgeries since her accident, Stacy is
able to walk and talk, but still requires full-time care.
Jan describes Stacy as a unique individual, who before becoming a jockey earned
her masters degree and taught high school students. “Horse racing kept tugging at Stacy’s
heart strings, and she methodically set her goal to become a jockey,” Jan said.
The accident and the slow and difficult climb that followed to improve her health
have resulted in a new goal – helping others who face similar permanent disabilities.
The financial hardship that is experienced by those dealing with disabilities is
overwhelming, Jan said.
“It is a very expensive thing to have to face and there are days when you don’t know
whether you’re going to make it,” Jan said.

Again, this video is not for the squeamish:


I'm baaaaaack! Ok, I went 3-0 last week to bring my record for the year back up to 12-13-2 (still pathetic). And I actually was beginning to think I wouldn't pick another winner the rest of the year. That is what happens when your confidence is gone.

This week I like Green Bay minus 6 over Minny. Green Bay is still playing over their heads but Minny is very one dimensional. Shut down Peterson and Green Bay should cover easily.

The Giants are getting 1 and a half against Dallas. I think the Giants will win it, but I'm looking for a lot of offense out of both teams. It might go down to the last play.

Arizona is one and a half points favored over Detroit. Look for Arizona to have a breakout game this week. I really can't see them losing.


Anonymous said...

hi Cangamble,

Any tips for someone who is trying to create their own speed / pace figures?

Anonymous said...

I don't bother with pace figures. I am strictly a speed handicapper but I do pay attention to running styles.
I usually download my Past Performances from http://www.tsnhorse.com

There speed numbers are pretty good and they give running style ratings are useful, but I like to make my own speed figures.

It is a little time consuming and a little complicated to begin with.
Which track or tracks are you looking at rating?

Anonymous said...

I'm hoping to try some figs with Santa Anita when it starts this Dec. I use brisnet PP's, which seem very similar to TSN.

A bit wary of the amount of time involved, but if it gives you an edge or some more insight into racing whats to lose. I'm going to check out a part of 'modern pace handicapping' that covers how to make some basic figs.

Anonymous said...

Assiniboia Downs lowers takeout for simulcast tracks. A step in the right direction. Hmm..can we bet through them?

"Downs' general manager Sharon Gulyas has announced that starting Monday, Nov. 19, the non-profit Manitoba Jockey Club will be in a position to roll back its take-out on major bets at simulcast tracks, allowing players to pocket more money. "If handle increases as a result of this lower take-out," Gulyas said, "we'll be able to offer an even greater return down the road.""


Anonymous said...

Once again, thanks for the heads up.
I know what will be my feature article for tomorrow's post:)
I'll make some calls about being able to bet through them, but I doubt it.

You should start doing speed figures in California right now. The sooner the better. TSN and Brisnet have the same owners btw and same address. TSN is just half the price usually.

I've never done pace figures, but once you get the hang of it, you can do speed figures very quickly for just one or two tracks...maybe 6-10 minutes a track. I also like to include a bias rating too (one for speed or closer, or fair, and one for whether it was a good rail,outside or fair. I use a scale of 1-10 for each.

You need to know the differences of speed expectation from one distance to another, and the expectations from class to class. I use a universal chart I made up by myself...I guess it is 80 % accurate and I include most of the distances and class ranges on it.
It is near impossible to do one for turf racing, because usually you can't compare races to each other on a given day, and the distance from rail to hedge changes quite often at most tracks from day to day.