Handicapping Woodbine: I've Thrown In The White Towel

Today marks the first time in around 30 years that I've decided not to either buy a form or download a racing card from Woodbine (or Greenwood RIP).
I know I constantly complain about the track takeout at Woodbine, but that hasn't stopped me completely from handicapping, and betting on Woodbine races (though because of the takeout, Woodbine betting from me represents only around 10% of what I bet in total).

I've decided to stop taking a brick to my head and going WHAP! Woodbine has to be the hardest track in North America to handicap. And thanks to the takeout, it is IMPOSSIBLE to be a long term winner, even if you are the luckiest bettor on this planet. I can't become drawn anymore to the biggest track in the jurisdiction I live, just because it is there.

Please, this is not sour grapes. I pride myself on being one of the best handicappers on this planet. I've had scores of $20,000 or more four times in the last 18 years. I know what I'm doing. And by all means, I'm not giving up on handicapping and betting. In fact over the next few months, I expect to go heavier than I ever have before. But nothing will go through my HPI account.

My problem is that when I do handicap a card, I handicap for value. I often come up with plays that would yield very good scores. It is hard not to play them, if I have knowledge that I picked them. This year, I have to admit, I'm not even close to hitting them. So my new motto is ignorance is bliss.

Why is Woodbine so hard to handicap?
I'm not a Polytrack hater, but the Poly in this case has a lot to do with it. The Woodbine jockey colony has figured out that they don't have to move early on it, especially if they feel they have horse underneath. If you look at some of the fractions for distance races especially, the half mile time becomes a huge joke. 50-52 seconds for horses running for $70,000 purses? And what is worse is in the old days, a horse who used to get away with those type of fractions would almost be a cinch to win the race. Now, despite the fact that Dan Loiselle keeps stating that his horse will be tough to beat from there, these horses are lucky to hit the board.

What this means is that times of races become almost irrelevant. Especially the further they go. The race comes down to who has the best 3 furlong kick and who can stay out of trouble when the kick happens. Basically, it is all randomness. And at the collective 21% takeout, it is far too expensive a deal. Might as well play the 649 (they have a 40-50% takeout but if you hit is once, you are set for a few lifetimes).

I think another reason that is less apparent to many handicappers, is the usage of drugs. This year, perhaps the "weening off" of steroids has a lot to do with the randomness that is happening. Some trainers might be experimenting with other ways to keep their horses built up. Some of these programs may be working, some may not, and in some cases, horses are still on steroids, as the ban doesn't kick in for another couple of weeks.

Now, I will still continue to do track variants for Woodbine races because I like playing Fort Erie (only with rebates of course...I wouldn't touch the Fort without them as they rate 70th out of 71 when it comes to best takeout rate in North America), and it is important to have figures for Woodbine because of all the Woodbine invaders. I'll probably handicap the Queen's Plate.


HYSTERICAL
Watching the infamous Bug's Boy race. Yesterday, he looked like an immortal cinch as Dan Loiselle used the term "under a hand ride." Simon Husbands is now in a situation that he can't whip the horse. And every time the horse runs now, he makes a great move "under a hand ride," and then stops at the sixteenth pole "under the same hand ride."

Again, the suspension handed out last year was warranted. The amount of time of the suspension wasn't. But the ORC made a mockery of the Woodbine Stewards, and pissed on the bettors, by reversing the decision.

The Stewards have been doing an excellent job. And they are all ex jockeys. They know that something was fishy with Simon's ride last year, and took appropriate action.



Will Calvin Borel be the first jockey to win the Triple Crown on more than one horse?
What if Rachel Alexandra doesn't go in the Belmont. Will Borel get the mount back on Mine That Bird? If it was my horse, he would.
I'm a firm believer that if Borel chose Mine That Bird, The Bird would have won the Preakness. Going long, a jockey with knowledge of a horse, has to be worth something, and conversely, a different rider on Rachel might have screwed her up just enough to lose the race.



Problems With Bonus Money At Fort Erie
It has been brought to my attention that Ontario breds will not be receiving the $750 bonus from the HBPA that they received last year.
Apparently, this decision was made either during or just after the HBPA decided to give over $500,000 as part of the ransom demanded by Nordic Racing in order to keep the 2009 racing season alive at the Fort.
The major problem I have with all this, is that it was never announced by the HBPA. So owners are finding out now, after they won with an Ontario bred, that they aren't getting the bonus.
The Ontario HBPA finally took off the bonus structure from their web site, but it didn't happen until late last week. This is what it looked like (click to enlarge):

I still think the bonuses should be reinstated, and to find the money to pay it, Fort Erie should eliminate all allowance races. If someone thinks they have a horse worth more than $18,000, send them to Woodbine and find out.

Of note, the CTHS still pays out a bonus to Ontario breds:

$15,000 - $20,000 Claiming: $1,000 Sales Credit & $1,000 Owners Bonus
$7,500 - $10,000 Claiming: $750 Sales Credit & $750 Owners Bonus

The Sales Credits will be issued to owner of the Registered Ontario-Bred winner at the above listed
claiming levels. These credits will be cumulative and must be used within one sales calendar year after
earned. The Owners Bonuses will be issued to the owner of the Registered Ontario-Bred winner at the
above listed claiming levels and will be distributed by the CTHS on or around the 15th day of the following
month.

For Fort Erie allowance races (races which I think should be eliminated):

In order for horses to be eligible for the added $2,500 (winner only) at Fort Erie the winner must also be
Registered Ontario-Breds, at the time of the race, as explained above. When running in Optional Claiming
Races only horses running without a claiming price are eligible.

Lets not forget about the ridiculous rule in Ontario that was imposed last year. If someone claims an Ontario bred horse from 2008 and on, the owner is not entitled to the full purse that is up for grabs. They get to run for the amount of purse that foreign bred horses run for.

So if someone claimed an Ontario bred last year or this year, and wins a Fort race in a $4,000 or $5,000 claiming race, they get nothing extra, from the CTHS or HPBA, and they only get to share in 85% of the announced purse.

Again, this hurts the small owners, and the small owners of today are the big owners of tomorrow in some instances. It hurts Ontario breeders as well, as it creates less demand (less owners) for their horses. As I've stated before, most owners enter the game claiming horses, not buying them at sales or buying them privately.



Yesterday's first race at Mountaineer was ugly. Why did the jockey feel compelled to whip Nice Irish Boy when he had an insurmountable lead at the sixteenth pole?


I originally misspelled Rachel Alexandra, "Rachel Alexander." That wound up getting me a lot of Google hits on this blog, as many others did the same. More and more people now are informed of Woodbine's high takeout situation now:)


IMPORTANT INFO FOR AMERICAN READERS
HANA has put up a link and a lot of info regarding the new bill introduced in the USA to eliminate the automatic 25% withholding on pari-mutuel winnings of $5,000 or more. It is important that as many people as possible show their support for the bill. Click here to find easy links in which you can show your support.

Rachel Alexandra: Too Many Ways For Her To Lose Today

No denying that Rachel Alexandra is a super filly. No denying that the Preakness field is pretty weak. Still, Rachel Alexander will not be worth the price today, and I can see her off the board.

Here is what I don't like: She is racing back a bit too early off a lifetime high speed figure. She is a filly coming off a great race. Her post is only going to hurt her. She will be chasing boys this time, though the boys are inferior to boys from years prior, she won't be chasing inferior girls this time out. In other words, she won't be superior enough to stalk from the chasing position....she'll be chasing, and that isn't the best position today as the race is full of chasers.

Big Drama, from the one hole, is who Rachel will be chasing. Big Drama is making his first start in 40 odd days, and I expect him to get an unchallenged lead for around 4 furlongs, but I think he'll be forced to exert himself too early from there, and he is expected to be short on fitness today for the full distance. Still, when he picks it up, it will take a toll on Rachel and the other lesser chasers, setting the race up for a sustained pace horse.

Mine That Bird has bounce written all over him. After destroying the field in the Derby, I don't expect the same peak effort today. Though he will be coming from the perfect position, I look for him to maybe be third or fourth today.

Musket Man has yet to be off the board in 7 lifetime starts. It is a bit concerning that he is making his 6th start this year already, but he just seems to show up every time he runs. His jockey knows him by now, and he looks like he can handle any distance.

Luv Gov is coming off a maiden win with the same type of great trip The Bird had on Derby day. He was a perennial maiden too, before that win. Speed numbers look inferior, and that usually does matter, though it didn't in the Derby.

Friesan Fire is making his second start off a bit of a layoff. He ran predictably (by me) disappointing in the Derby, and supposedly grabbed himself. How he is able to run back so quick after losing part of his foot in a major race is beyond me. I wouldn't be surprised if he is scratched today. If he runs, I'll just watch him. If he runs good, I'll just turn the page.

Terrain looks like he'll enjoy the distance, and he looks like he has a future, and the pace will favor him today. But the 35 days off means that he shouldn't be good enough to hit the board.

Papa Clem looks to have good tactical speed. If he can run back to the Arkansas Derby he has a fighting chance today. He will be compromised a bit if it is a deep closers track. His post could be the key to him being right there.

General Quarters is making his 13 lifetime start and 13th race in the same racing cycle. This is a work horse. You can take a black magic marker and eliminate his last running line, as his post and the trip killed his chances. His running style is perfect for today's race. I think his preferred distance would be a mile and a sixteenth or a mile and an eighth. But he does represent a value play if his odds are close or higher than his morning line.

Pioneer of the Isle ran better than I expected in the Derby. He can handle the dirt. But I still think he is a few lengths inferior to today's main contenders. He will probably wait for Rachel to make her move before he tries to fire today. I just see him bidding and hanging today.

Flying Private had no chance in the Derby thanks to his trip, but his best race to date was on the poly, and a repeat of that race wouldn't win today. Can't see here.

Take The Points is another layoff horse (42 days). Other than that, I thought he was an actual contender for the Derby this year at one time. Looks like he may force Rachel out an extra path in the first turn, but figures to chase and pack it in.

Tone It Down is the home team horse. I've seen these types do well against inferior type fields in the past at long odds. He doesn't have the speed to be on the lead, and it wouldn't surprise me if he is seventh or eighth around the backstretch. He is an improving sort, but when taking the post into consideration and a compromised running style, I'm not expecting much.

Rachel Alexandra will be a beaten favorite most probably. I've already explained why.

My top four:

General Quarters
Musket Man
Mine That Bird
Papa Clem

Remember, I'm a value handicapper. I'm pretty much making a statement today that Rachel Alexandra does not represent value.


Chantal Sutherland has given Mike Smith some tips on how to ride The Bird:

"(Talk with Chantal Sutherland, girlfriend and former rider of MTBird) -- Actually, I have. She's given me a lot of insight about him. She told me he's really rider-friendly. He'll do anything you want him to do. One thing she did tell me which is kind of a key and I saw it in the Derby is when he first leaves there he might want to go with you but once you let him know that's not what you want, then he seems to settle really well. So I should have no problem with that."

I wonder if Chantal would rather have that first line read "rider of MTBird and former girlfriend."


Lots of talk on the blogosphere this week of the negative effect that slots have had on horse racing growth. My two cents:

People only have so much disposable cash, and the "dummy slot" bettor of today, was yesterdays dumb money at the race track. Sure, they lose more per capita on slots than they did on horse racing in the past, but racing hasn't been able to make up for the loss of the dumb money bettors. And more importantly, for today's player, armed with a racing form or computer generated selections, now for the most part, it is good handicappers versus real good handicappers, who compete against each other at a slightly higher takeout than what was out there 15-20 years ago. So it is much easier for good players now to be discouraged from betting, because it is so difficult to win, much more difficult than 20 years ago. This causes many to just leave. Because there aren't very many winners (especially who do so without rebate), there is no buzz from winners. This means there is no lure to newbie gamblers to try horse racing because the game can be beaten, like there is in sports betting, or poker or exchange betting.

One more thing. John Q Smith goes to the track with $200. On average it takes him $1000 worth of bets to go broke. The track winds up splitting the $200, with, depending on jurisdiction, about $90 going to the track, $90 going to purses, and $20 going to taxation etc.

When John Q Smith goes to the slots with $200. On average it takes $2000 worth of betting to go broke. The time it takes to lose on either horse racing and slots is probably around the same depending on how the individual bets. But in the end, the track winds up with $20, and the purses wind up with $20.

To a racetrack, it would have been more prudent to convert these potential slot players to horseplayers before slots came along. Even if they could convert 1 in three or four, they would wind up further ahead. But they didn't because they refused to compete by not making the game more affordable when they could have.


See also Slots Are Poison For Growing Demand In Racing and Slot Machines Spreading Disease

Field Size

WHAT FIELD SIZE DO YOU PREFER TO BET ON?
I know there is a correlation between field size and handle. Just take a look at any result charts and see which races get the largest handle at any track.
But as a handicapper, too many 12-14 horse races can be quick bankroll killers. Personally, I prefer races with 8-11 horses in it. 8 horses are OK for exactors, doubles and pick 3's, and when it comes to supers and tris, 9 horse races are OK, but I tend to want 10 or 11 horse races for those type of bets.

Large win bettors probably feel more confident when there is less horses in the race, and may make bigger wagers. But $2 win bettors probably like bigger fields.
It is very tough to properly predict how a race will set up when there is 10 or more horses in it. In 6 horse races or less, the early speed horse usually can be predicted.

I know that horsemen prefer really small fields, and I know that the closer one comes to a two horse race, the more devastating takeout becomes to players. The house advantage on a football game is less than 5%, and betting football is a tough game to beat.

Woodbine prides themselves on big fields, but I don't see their handles doing all that great. I think a lot of players are aware of their high takeouts, and many players avoid polytrack. But definitely, the races with the highest amount of betting interests usually attracts the biggest pools. But at a price:

Larger fields do not attract new money. It just gets some of the money that might have been devoted to smaller field races.

They don't make a difference on the bottom line. If horse racing were to have an average field size of 11 tomorrow, the amount of money lost by patrons would be the same as if the average was 7.5 collectively in the industry.

They just might be more appealing to existing bettors, but that is it.

The only way to increase the bottom line is to attract new players, and it is broken record time: Takeout needs to be reduced and/or rebates need to be higher so that winners are created. Word of mouth that the game can be beat will create new players and/or bring back players who are betting offshore.

I started a thread on Pace Advantage regarding Field Size, and it became pretty active.

A point I made in the thread:
I still say that too many 12-14 horse fields are bankroll busters. It does create more chaos because of traffic jams, so if anything, a lower takeout is required. These races also kill churn.
But on the positive side of things, if you do hit an exotic in a 12-14 horse field, you might get enough to keep your bankroll alive for a week or more.

I look back at my most successful cashes, and I think they mostly occurred in races that had 8-11 horses though.

I always look at the Derby as a crap shoot.
I liked Bobphilo's comment (I think he represents quite a few horseplayers with this):

I see both sides of the argument. On one hand the larger fields bring larger prices but bring lower strike rates. Smaller fields give smaller prices but also a higher win percentage. Now these would even things out except for the fact that the lower win % you get with larger fields is not something that can be compensated with better handicapping. They are more difficult because the larger fields also cause more traffic problems and are therefore less predictable out of proportion just to the increased number of horses you have to beat – they add an increased element of chance. That’s why I personally prefer small to medium-sized fields of 6 –8.
I also prefer smallish fields because I employ comprehensive handicapping and they give me more time to devote to each horse and make it less likely that I’ll miss an important factor.

Of course these are just general rules. I make exceptions in large fields where many of the horses can safely and quickly be eliminated.

Bob

Imriledup pretty much shares those views:

Here's 4 reasons why i prefer 8 horse fields over 12 horse fields.

1) It doesnt' take as long to handicap an 8 horse field. Time is money and a 12 horse field might take me 33% longer to handicap.

2) I bet more than 2 dollars. If you are a 2 dollar player, you need that 12 horse field so you can hit the trifecta that pays 1500 for 1 dollar. But, for me, i'd rather have a tri in an 8 horse field that pays 500 for a dollar and have it multiple times. I don't need the tri to pay 1500 for 1 dollar, i can have a tri that pays 500 for 1 dollar and have it 3 times (or 30 times). Those 4 extra horses cause you to spend much more money chasing down that illusive tri score.

3) Much less of a chance that my horse will get bothered or disqualified. Its a 'truer' race because horsepower matters more than racing luck.

4) In the shorter field, you can really make a concentrated score if the heavy favorite is a dog. In a 12 horse field, you still have 11 bodies to navigate thru.

 What Field Size Do You Prefer To Bet On?

• 
  
  7 or less horses


• 
  
  8-11 horses


• 
  
  12 or more horses

view results
Free vote poll

BUYER BEWARE
Testing for anabolic steroids in Ontario will commence on June 1st. Those claiming horses right now need to watch out. Steroid testing doesn't happen during private purchase or on new claims right now, even though steroids could remain in a horse's body for 45-60 days from their last injection. Trainers could feasibly be using steroids right now, and racing horses on steroids, with an eye towards giving them a couple months off, which means that they know the horse is on steroids, but if the horse gets claimed the new outfit won't. And if the horse comes up with a positive after May 31st, the new outfit will face fine and suspension for using a Class III drug.
It costs around $150 to test to see if it is on steroids right now.



Free Past Performances For The Preakness
From Brisnet
From DRF



Delaware senate approves sports betting
This is the type of competition that can only hurt horse racing more. Not that sports betting is more appealing to horse racing customers to handicap, but it is a much fairer gamble. House take is much much lower, and guess what? Gamblers have a chance to become long term winners.
Racing needs to compete instead of hoping alternative forms of gambling just go away.
HT/HANA's Blog


FORT ERIE HANDLE IS STILL IN THE CRAPPER
Sunday, they barely did over $300,000. They only average around $75,000 a race on Monday and Tuesday. It is imperative that the have 10 races on both Monday and Tuesday, even if it means scrapping Sundays altogether.
Meanwhile, what could this track be worth? It seems to be dropping in value every day.
In July the Passport issue won't help. How many Americans who go to the track over the border have Passports? I guess we'll find out soon.
Also, with the Stonach tracks going on the market, the price of all tracks wind up going down. There are only so many race track buyers out there, and once a buyer purchases one track, the chances they buy another are drastically reduced.



Empire Resorts Close To Bankruptcy
They own Monticello Raceway in New York state. Gaming revenues are off, as they appear to be everywhere.


Great Canadian Gaming Posts a First Quarter Loss
Their stock is on a roll though. It has gone up close to 50% in the last month. The company has been treading very carefully in light of the recession.



Cobra Venom Vet Gets 5 Year Suspension In Kentucky

HT/Equidaily


Barney Frank's new bill to regulate on-line gambling, throws sports betting under the bus


Lebanon Raceway mutuel clerk accused of theft: she came up $31,000 short one night

HANA's Next Pool Party and Rachel Vs. The Bird

HANA's Pool Party
We had a tough decision this week but finally agreed that we will do our damage at Prairie Meadows this week. We are asking our members to play the 6th race at Prairie Meadows on Saturday night (the race goes off at around a quarter to 10 EST). Prairie Meadows is the 23rd rated race track on HANA's list, which is above average. The negative is that I don't think HPI has Prairie Meadows on the menu Saturday night, so Canadians who don't have an account with a US ADW that takes Canadian customers will most likely wind up getting shut out this week. UPDATE: Apparently Prairie Meadows is on the HPI menu tonight. That is, if you live in the GTA. In the Niagara Region, according to the menu I saw, Prairie Meadows isn't there.

Note to Woodbine: If you want HANA to feature Woodbine as a Pool Party race, you have two choices. Drop the takeout on triactors to a maximum of 25% and/or stop ripping off customers by ramping up the takeout on bets that have lower takeouts. Announce the change, and we will start looking at your track.

Free past performances and more for the 6th Race at Prairie Meadows on Saturday night are available by clicking here. Thanks again to Craig from Trackmaster, and CJ from Pacefigures.
Support HANA by betting the race any way you like.

Update: Free Thorograph for Saturday night's race. You can access it here.



Pull The Pocket has an interesting post up showing hard stats that prove horse racing doesn't attract the younger crowd.
The younger crowd is gambling, but they are playing where they have a chance to win in the long run.


Woodbine Bias Report The inside just doesn't seem like the place to be, and it now looks like it is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy, jockeys who think they have a chance at winning, are not placing themselves on the wood.


Interesting Tidbit
In today's seventh at Woodbine, there is a horse named Jovial Jill. She is related to Derby winner Mine That Bird on the dam's side. Mine That Bird's second dam is a half sister, to Jovial Jill's second dam.


Speaking of Mine That Bird, I still think he is going to be 1st or 2nd favorite come Preakness post time. The question right now is who is going to be the jockey. As almost everyone knows, Rachel Alexandra, who wound up with a better Beyer than the Bird last race, was sold. New trainer too. The questions are out there now. Will Rachel Alexandra get to show her stuff in the Preakness? If she goes, who will Borel choose? Will Asmussen even give the call to Borel? If Borel gets the mount, will Chantal Sutherland be considered to get her mount back on the bird?


Ontario Racing Commission suspends vet for 10 years
Glenn Johnston allegedly wrote prescriptions for DPO. The ORC release.



Tampa Bay Downs Betting Scandal
An indictment was finally filed against a jockey and a couple of bettors regarding alleged race fixing at Tampa Bay Downs and the now defunct Great Lakes Downs. Read more at the Paulick Report.


Who Is Maggi Moss?
A lot of people who read up on horse racing may just skim over stories regarding owners, and their background. I'm guilty of this myself many times. I recently came across this excellent video on Maggi Moss. Well worth watching:

I'm Just Putting It Out There

I took a little a lot of heat on the Pace Advantage Forum for making the following post:

If Mine That Bird gets a positive, it will be the best thing that could happen to horse racing.

So far the thread is into the 5th page and has had over 2400 views (I'm pretty sure that it counts repeat visitors as a new view).

I went on to explain why, but there are many commenters who still don't get my point:

Drugs are plaguing the sport and regulators have been very slow to fix it.
Hey, I know that a positive would hurt the game short term, but until drugs are out of the game, the game will be broken.

And again, I'm not inferring here that the horse will get a positive. The horse could have been on the best part of the track, the hardest part of the track, and saved the most ground, and the pace of the race helped him too.

Funny things happen in the slop. Again, I've already read many comments from people expecting a positive. I'm not expecting a positive, but wouldn't be shocked just the same.

There is a lot of speculation that at the very least Mine That Bird had something that is not tested for inside his bloodstream that made him move like a monster on Saturday. But it is 2009, and that is the state of horse racing.

Honestly, if I made a quick pick bet and Mine That Bird was on the ticket, I would have canceled the ticket, even if it was a superfecta, and Mine That Bird was in the four hole. His speed numbers weren't high enough going in to win a Non Winners other than Maiden or Claiming race.

He was the only gelding. Was it training in the New Mexico atmosphere that gave him an edge? Did the new Kentucky steroid rule turn the race into a complete crap shoot?

No denying that Calvin Bo-Rail was the best jockey for that particular course on that particular day by a country mile.

Jennifer Morrison reports on her blog that Chantal Sutherland (who rode the horse to victories last year) was considered until Bo-Rail became available. According to Down The Stretch Newspaper, the offer from Playboy that Sutherland refused would have gone up considerably if she just had a Derby mount, let alone won the Derby (which I think would have happened if she had the mount, as Sutherland seems to have a good eye for the track bias). So we can blame the trainer (or whoever made the decision on the jockey) for preventing Sutherland from being in Playboy, for now.

Hopeful Playboy won't make an offer to Calvin Keebler Borel. I know I won't be buying that issue.

Another thing that bugs me is anyone who claims that Mine That Bird is a Canadian. He isn't. Never was. Never will be. With all the money that is allotted to Ontario breds, it was a crying shame that he won the Sovereign Award, but he was better than all the Canadian breds and since he ran here at least three times, he qualified to win. He is a Kentucky bred. A US bred horse, nothing more, nothing less.

I will fairly add though that on his dam's side, especially his third dam, there is a lot of Canadian blood. Looks like a few Display Farm horses are at least related to the Bird.

PETA must be very upset that no horses died in the Derby this year. I'm surprised they don't go after the winner's name. I'm sure they aren't fans of throwing birds into mines to see if there is enough oxygen for humans.

This win by Mine That Bird is going to hurt the sales prices of high end horses for the foreseeable future. The low end horses may get a boost, as buyers see that they don't have to spend much to have a future millionaire. This win, coupled with Big Brown's win last year shows that it is much more prudent to spend a premium after a horse has established himself, at least somewhat. The Green Monkey days are gone.

Finally, it is my contention that after that 7 length Derby win, barring a positive, the Bird should be the favourite or 2nd choice at the very least in the Preakness. Many on Pace Advantage adamantly disagree with me on that. But I just can't see how he won't.

Peter from Family Guy agrees with me on the Preakness. Here is his tip:



KUDOS TO WOODBINE AND THE SCORE
It was nice to see Fort Erie on the Score on Sunday, instead of Belmont. I'm hoping nobody complains. Showing Fort Erie as the second track is the right thing to do in order to help promote horse racing in Ontario.

But it didn't help the betting unfortunately. Less than $400,000 was bet in total at Fort Erie on Sunday (I think the $35 million sales price is a tad too high now. Oh wait, I always thought that). I don't ever remember seeing such a low total in recent history.

I know what didn't help. Fort Erie stopped taking US dollar bets at the track. Patrons from the US have to convert to our funny money before they make a wager on track now. Is it any wonder that Fort Erie is big trouble. And by looking at those betting numbers, I hate to say it, but the end is near.

I know their high takeouts (they are the second worst in North America) are a huge turn off to many bettors, but they need to stop racing on Sunday, and only race when they are not up against any significant competition. Switch to Wednesdays. Let players tap out at the Fort before Woodbine races.

Obligatory Kentucky Derby Selections: How About West Side Bernie?

UPDATE: I Want Revenge scratched due to lameness in the left ankle. There are a lot of people who may be happy for Mullins right now.

Anytime you have 20 horses in a race, no matter how good the favorites look, it becomes a crap shoot.

So here is my mud against the wall analysis of the 2009 Kentucky Derby:

I Want Revenge is the best horse going into the race. But it is hard to play a favorite in a 20 horse race, especially a favourite ridden by Joe Talamo. I'm tainted after watching the series Jockeys on Animal Planet. He appears to be an up and coming jockey, but he also seems like the type who will do something to lose a big race like this one. I think the series might actually make Revenge a bit of an overlay, because I'm sure that I'm not alone.
Don't get me wrong. I'm still using the horse, I just think he won't win it.

In the recent Wood Memorial, the pace and flow and played in I Want Revenge's favour, but the dark horse that interests me from that race is West Side Bernie. He ran a lot further than the winner, and he might just be improving every race. Will he peak in the Derby? He'll be a nice price, and the one post may be just what is needed to save just enough ground to pull the upset.


Another couple of question marks in this year's Derby ran in the UAE Derby. Regal Ransom and Desert Party left the rest of the field in their dust. But just how good race that race? It is tough to put a speed figure on the race, but from the research I've done, this race could be rated higher than I Want Revenge's Gotham victory. What I don't like is both these horses have been off over a month. I don't like this angle, especially on cheap horses, but with allowance and stake horses it becomes less of a hurdle....it is still a hurdle.
Of the two, I like Desert Party who has attracted arguably the best dirt jockey in North America for the Derby, Ramon Dominguez. I think Regal Ransom will bounce at least a bit off that last one.


I really don't like Pioneer of the Isle. He seems to have better Poly breeding than dirt breeding, and he has only raced on the Poly. His speed figures aren't nearly as good as Revenge's. And the fact that Garret Gomez chose him over Dunkirk, makes me throw Dunkirk out as well. Dunkirk looks like the better horse on paper, but Gomez is no dummy.

Musket Man has only had one bad race, and it was a third. With his inside post, he may get a slice of the pie in the Derby with a good enough trip. He definitely can handle a dirt track.

Another horse that intrigues me is Chocolate Candy who race very wide off a bit of a layoff in his last race. He has never tried the dirt, but he looks like he'll enjoy the mile and a quarter on the dirt.

Join in the Dance may last longer than one might think, he looks like the horse that will get the lead for at least 6 furlongs. Of course, it depends on if the other horses let him breathe on the front, as to whether he lasts longer. This leads to another reason I like Desert Party. He looks like he'll be first to pounce. I think he won't be worse than 4th early on, and that he might get away with only being 3 wide in the first turn despite having the 19 post.

I've mentioned quite a few horses here, and it wouldn't surprise me if I haven't mentioned the 2009 winner. Ok, I'll mention a couple more. Friesan Fire just doesn't cut it for me. The horse has been away 50 days, and has never gone past a mile and sixteenth. Despite Larry Jones, I have to stay completely clear of this one. General Quarters ran a real good race in the Tampa Bay Derby, but his last two numbers have been on the slow side. A good Derby placing wouldn't be a shocker, but I'm afraid he has already peaked this year.

My top four

West Side Bernie
Desert Party
I Want Revenge
Musket Man


FORT ERIE OPENS
Pretty good sized fields (for Fort Erie) on Saturday. It looks like Mike Mehak has the best chance to be leading jockey after day one. He has a few live mounts, it appears. I think bugs will dominate this year, but Rui Pimentel looks like the early favourite to win the jockeys title.
Good to see Regina Sealock back in the saddle. Tampa Bay was a bit of a disaster for her, but she had very few mounts that stood a chance. At least she is winter raced. Watch out when the horses stretch out to two turns. She could be the best two turn jockey at the Fort this year.


A COUPLE OF STORIES THAT WON'T BRING HORSE RACING MORE FANS
One of the worst takes on horse racing ever written. This is what happens when mainstream media and horse racing meet up. And right now, there just isn't enough fans and bettors to stop this attitude. Comparing horse racing with cock fights is amateurish at best, and obviously the author has very limited knowledge when it comes to horse racing and the people involved.

Another article, not as brutal, as it factual and a lot more objective, though the terrible timing of it has to do with horse racing and MSM meeting for the week. This one has to do with horse racing from the viewpoint of a vet who is responsible to give lethal injections to suffering thoroughbreds.

The old saying that "there is no such thing as bad publicity," doesn't seem to be true when applied to horse racing.


One of HANA's main gripes with the industry seems to be attempting to sort out. One of HANA's goals is to have all signals available at all ADWs. TVG has a temporary deal to include Tracknet signals on their menu. This could have a lot to do with TVG being bought out by Betfair. Betfair's influence in North America may actually allow horse racing to finally become a growth industry again.

8 OHHA directors resign The OHHA is portrayed as protectors of drug violators. They are also very lucky that slots exist. Without them, harness racing would probably be dead in Ontario today, except for maybe Woodbine and Mohawk.
The Harness leaders should be kissing the ground that Standardbred racing is alive.


NBC racing analyst collapsed during the Kentucky Oaks broadcast today. He was taken to hospital after what appears to have been something like a seizure. He seems to be recovering at latest report, but will miss the Derby.


Eric Poteck, will be a guest this Sunday on the Fan 590's Inside The Lines, starting at 10:20 a.m. to talk the Canadian Horseplayers Advocacy Group, which he has founded (and is the only member of). His stance was unveiled earlier this week at the Standardbred Wagering Conference in Windsor.

If I Ran Woodbine

What Woodbine Needs To Do To Grow Horse Racing

1. Reduce Takeouts/Give Every Account Bettor Larger Rebates

This is the number one issue when it comes to growing the game. I have to say, I have done a lot of thinking and rethinking on this issue, and I'm now in the rebate camp more than I am in the reduced takeout camp.

The reason is that on big days like the Queen's Plate and also when you factor in the corporate dining room crowd, there is no reason not to keep takeout at higher levels for the patrons, who are not likely to come back that often if at all again. These are entertainment dollars the racetracks only have one shot at. Might as well get as much out of these customers as they can and as quickly as they can. Higher payouts for these people won't mean a thing as to whether they come back or not.

I don't think Woodbine should have one of the highest collective takeouts in the industry either. They need to reduce triactors and other exotic bets to 25% maximum so that they don't lose those betting simulcast or through ADWs in the USA.

They also need to payout what US tracks payout on exotics that have lower takeout rates. It is completely offensive when a gambler sees that he or she received 93.5% of the payout that was posted in Tampa Bay for a Win3 hit through HPI, for example. It is inexcusable, and borderline criminal.

Now getting back to the issue of rebating. HPI is almost a monopoly when it comes to Canadians betting on horse racing with a Canadian based server. There really should be no reason for someone who wants to bet on the ponies to have to bet elsewhere. I'm certain that all gamblers would be most comfortable dealing with a company that is regulated by our government. The problem is that HPI fails to compete for most gamblers who are price sensitive. They have an opportunity to capture almost all the money they are losing to offshore houses.

I recently saw the account of a horseplayer who bet over $80,000 in March alone (He started with a $400 deposit). He would rather have supported the industry in Ontario, but he bet through a foreign ADW instead (one where the money bet made it to the actual betting pools), because he received an average rebate of around 6.5%. Does anyone blame him? How many more gamblers like him exist in Ontario?

The bigger question is how much would a gambler like this churn with a 1% rebate (that Woodbine offers to most players in their home market) or no rebate at all? His answer was that he estimates he would bet a tenth of that if he didn't get wiped out too quickly (which would probably happen).

I don't want this to be a case to only rebate potential big players either. I know that today's $2 bettor is tomorrow's $100 bettor. But the only way that is going to happen is if the $2 bettor sees a light at the end of the tunnel. I strongly believe that all players should get the same rebate if they choose to open up an online account.

Bettors only have so much to lose gambling during a certain period of time (3 months to a year, for example). They may not understand the impact of takeout or rebates, but they will realize (maybe even subconsciously) whether they lose quickly or slowly in general when betting certain games. For example, slot operators know not to up the house rake over 10% because beyond that, players get discouraged by losing too fast. The key to getting players to focus on horse racing is to allow them to last longer, and this can be satisfied by daily rebates.

Lets say a person bets $150 one day and has a zero account balance at the end of the day. A 7% rebate gives that player $10 in the account for the next betting day. Sure, the player may just bet the 10 bucks and if it is gone, they are gone for a bit. But chances are that the bettor will do some handicapping, some research, just because they know the 10 bucks is there. In other words, they are more likely to play on days they wouldn't have before, and they are more likely to go to the well in order to play the other races that were handicapped for the new day. The rebate has put the hook in the players mouth.

Churn (thanks to rebates or lower takeouts) definitely helps by letting players last longer. If players last longer, their friends and family might just get involved too. It only makes sense that if someone devotes more time to handicapping, those in that person's immediate universe are likely to wind up showing interest or will wind up being forced to become interested. Also, if a bettor lasts longer, they are likely to forget about other forms of gambling, so the track has the opportunity to get all the players gambling dough.

But the main thing that will bring new blood into the track, is that thanks to a lower cost to gamble, there is now a chance that if you are good enough and lucky enough, you might actually beat the game, and when this happens, others people will hear about it and many will give it a try. This has worked with online Poker, and it works with Betfair.

Word of mouth ( by newly created horseplayers who win) is a powerful marketing tool, especially in today's internet age. But right now the internet is killing horse racing because those who investigate know that betting without rebate or into high takeouts is just plain idiocy.

But now for the problem Woodbine has at this time:

Even if they were to love my advice here (and why wouldn't they?), the contracts with horsemen have to be rewritten. This plan would be unfair to Woodbine. Let me explain with an example.
Lets say that Woodbine averages 22% on a bet, where 11% goes to horsemen, 9% goes to the track, and 2% goes to the taxman, etc. Now lets say that one million is bet. Under my plan, Woodbine would rebate $70,000, and that money would eventually be bet back (it would take approximately $400,000 plus in bets to dwindle that so that the original rebated money is actually lost by the collective bettors (when factoring that rebates will continue).

Even though the $70,000 will eventually be lost by players, the horsemen will get another $40,000 from Woodbine's original rebate. The horsemen will receive approximately 14%, while the track winds up with only 6% of the initial million bet when the dust clears.

What must happen is that the horsemen have to realize for the good of the game, and for the potential growth that will come, rebates to players need to be split in the same manner it is split by bet. This way, Woodbine receives its fair share......the way it should be.

Minor to this, the existing contract that gives horsemen an additional 2% on all bets except 4% on triactors needs to be changed as a percentage of the total takeout not the total amount bet. This way, triactor takeouts can be reduced so that Woodbine doesn't lose out disproportionately.


2. Drugs Drugs Drugs

I think that if more bettors cared about horse racing, the pressure to reduce the amount of drugs allowed would increase immensely. Right now, not enough people care.

I would only allow 4 or 5 drugs to be approved. Lasix would be one that I would either eliminate or give in much more reduced amounts. Not only do studies show that Lasix doesn't do what it is supposed to do, it also masks other drugs.

Any trainer batting at 18% or more (per 100 starts) is most likely using something illegal or something that isn't being tested for. I think that if high percentage trainers were put in detention more readily (just for suspicion), there would be a lot less 18% trainers on the grounds.

Not allowing horses to ship in more than 48 hours before a race, would also throw a major curve ball at cheating trainers who are not only hurting the game from the bettors point of view, but also from the owners point of view (especially new potential owners).

Anyone nailed with a positive would get half a year minimum, and I would consider getting the courts involved. It always boggles my mind how cheating trainers aren't actually defrauding the betting public and defrauding other owners and trainers as well (by denying those who play by the rules much of the purse monies in many instances). Would the possibility of jail deter cheaters? I say give it a try and find out.


3. Quit Protecting and Deterring Horses From Being Claimed

One of the best ways to grow the game is to get new owners involved. New owners often get started by partnership. Instead of one owner showing up at the track, you wind up with 3 owners, some of their relatives and friends as well. Many of these people are potential owners as well, and for sure, they are potential bettors, and maybe potential long term bettors.

Almost every new owner comes into the game via the claim game. It is pretty tough to tell a newbie owner to go to a sales, by a yearling, and then probably wait a year or two before the horse is ready to run, if the horse makes it. In the meantime, the newbie gets to send checks monthly with no possibility of any return for quite some time.

The way it works is that a trainer or current owner gets a friend involved in a smaller way with a race ready horse, usually by claiming this horse. If things become fun and/or profitable, the new owner buys more horses, and may get other friends involved in ownership.

Many times, these owners wind up with a mare at the end of the year that they decide to breed. Also, depending on how good the year was, the newbie owner may decide to go to the sales and take a shot on a potential Stakes winner.

In other words, they get involved in breeding after they try the racing game. No matter how much breeders want it to be the other way around, it just doesn't happen that way.

Unfortunately, the rules that exist today in Ontario are in place so as to cater to the way the breeders want things to be. And the result is that it is chasing potential owners away.

I spoke to one the other day. Someone who has owned horses in Ontario for quite some time. He is not interested now in claiming an Ontario bred, because once claimed, Ontario breds do not run for full purses. In fact, he now isn't even looking to claim anything.

Ontario bred horses that are claimed should run for full purses again.

Another related point is that when owners are on the lookout, they are also more inclined to bet as well, because they are doing some handicapping.

So not only is this guy not going to claim the usual 4 or 5 horses he claims a year, he winds up losing interest in the game completely, and that means he won't show up at the year end sales either. No chance.

The B Allowance and Maiden races need to go as well. If a horse can't compete in an A protected race, it is a claimer. It should be offered to the public. I'd rather see maiden 60,000 or 80,000 races or 60,000 non winners of two, rather than B races, where true value is thrown out the door. The more horses that run for a sale tag, the more horses that will get claimed. But the way it is now is a curve ball is thrown at the capital market of buying and selling horses.

I would also add more money to the purse money of lower end claiming races and take a little off the allowance and high claimer's purse money to make up for it. This way more owners will come closer to making money and of course, come closer to breaking even, which will most likely entice them to buy more horses and even wind up at the year end sales.


4. Ontario Bred Claiming Races

Why Ontario hasn't started running Ontario bred claiming races is also beyond me. It is a no-brainer to increase the value of all Ontario bred horses. If Ontario breds can run against lesser competition and for a greater purse, more people will be inclined to spend more money at sales because they know they have a possible out if the horse doesn't make it in the allowance ranks. Owners will be looking to buy Ontario, and this will create a bigger demand for all Ontario breds.
If the price of the cheapest Ontario horse goes up, the price of all Ontario breds go up as well.


5. Start A Betting Exchange

Compete for the same market Betfair has, using the exact same commissions. Not only for horse racing but online Poker and sports betting as well. Split the proceeds with the horsemen, and don't forget to take international bettors.

Personally, I think the only real future harness racing in Ontario has right now is if harness races were put on an international exchange. And if the thoroughbreds don't clean up their act very soon, that will be their only real future too, as the industry is losing more players each day, because it fails to compete in the least, with other low priced forms of gambling.

EDIT: I don't want to appear so down on harness racing but the reality is that harness racing will always lag behind thoroughbred racing. And right now, the thoroughbred industry continues its slow swirl down the toilet.



TRACK TAKEOUT CHART: NEW AND IMPROVED
Thanks to Bill from HANA for putting together the most up to date and informative track takeout chart available anywhere. It is sortable, so you could click a heading like TRI Takeout and scroll down to find that Woodbine ranks 68th out of 71 tracks in that department. It also has a field size and pool size column. Great stuff.

Chantal Sutherland Nude...........Not Yet

Down The Stretch has a two page interview with Chantal Sutherland. She reveals that after she did the Vogue layout she was contacted to do a spread for Playboy. Apparently, it came down to dollars; she wasn't offered enough.
Like a good friend once told me, everyone has a price when it comes to everything. Oh wait, that wasn't a good friend, it was me who said it.
She does want to get on Dancing With The Stars. I'd watch the show, if she got that gig.
Is there a Down The Stretch Jinx? Chantal is 0 for 13 since the article on her appeared on line.

Also in Down The Stretch, they found room to do an article on HANA by up and coming racing journalist Perry Lefko.

Speaking of HANA, the Saturday Pool Party at Hawthorne appears to have been the most successful one so far. Just look at the following comparison:

Avg. per race last 16 mos.: $268K
Avg. bet on a Saturday race last 16 Mos. : $302K
Avg. bet on a Saturday race this year: $248K

Saturday's Pool Party Race 6: $385,000

It sure looks like HANA wasn't affected by any Down The Stretch Jinx.

To join HANA click here. It is free.



For handicappers who may have tried Formulator, there may be something better on the market. Check out TrackMasterPro. I really don't like Beyer numbers used by DRF (Formulator). Their numbers are crap at times. Just take Bug's Boys Beyer number from November 30th. Beyer had it rated way too high. Equibase, like TSN and Brisnet, confirm my low number for that race. TrackMaster uses Equibase speed numbers.
On Friday Bug's Boy sure looked like a winner, until the point where it looked like he should have been worked on harder (and maybe GASP whipped).

BTW, I really like the fact that TrackMaster gives speed numbers for horses from overseas.



Don't forget to give Jennifer Morrison's article that appeared in Saturday's Star called Rescue Mission: Caring For Sick, Starving Thoroughbreds


Truth Or Rumours
Todd Kabel got a 15 day suspension? And it wasn't for weighing too much.

Fort Erie is not going to take wagers at the track in US dollars? This is just nuts. Here you have a track struggling to survive, and they are going the extra mile to turn off Americans, forcing them to exchange their US dollars to bet live at the track. I can see a positive if a bettor winds up with Canadian dollars when he or she leaves the track as they are likely to come back quicker. But with takeout rates that are over 25% for exactor bets, not too many people go home with money in their pockets.
Seems like a way for them to nickel and dime the customer. As the track may be hoping to make money on the exchange of dough each way. Contrary to what the track was doing last year at times, when they were literally giving money away as they allowed bettors (and employees?) to exchange Canadian into American and back into Canadian so that the person who flipped the money would come out ahead by as much as 4% many times. No wonder Fort Erie lost as much as they allegedly say they lost.

Did trainers sign out their horses at Woodbine last year so as to get them treated with an unknown pre-race by a non ORC licensed vet?, and then van the horse back to the track on the day of the race? And did many of these horses run very good races? And was there some sort of screw up which made it impossible for the ORC and RCMP to prosecute or go after the trainers who were using the vet's service?
How about forcing horses to be on the ground for 48 hours to any race they are entered to run?


Keeneland Handle Drops 19.2%
It isn't the takeout as they have one of the best in the business. Again, I need to point out that most people are not cognizant of takeout, so even if they bet a low takeout venue, they are likely to bet back at a high takeout venue without any realization. So they are betting the extra money they have cashed due to the low takeout elsewhere.
NOTE: They raced 15 days this year as opposed to 16 days last year, so average day handle was off by 9.6%.
I started a thread on Pace Advantage exploring the reason as to why Keeneland's handle is off so much.
Many forum members are stating it is the Polytrack. But it could be that racing is going to have a very lousy 2nd quarter, and Keeneland is just the first track to give 2nd quarter numbers. It could be the economy. It could possibly have to do with a peak in ADW customer and numbers, which is a reflection of the fact that racing has done nothing right when it comes to attracting new customers (by being non competitive in product pricing with other forms of gambling). So basically that would mean that existing players are betting less or dying or leaving and not being replaced by new blood.

 What is the main reason Keeneland handle numbers are down?

• 
  
  The economy: bettors are betting less all over


• 
  
  The polytrack


• 
  
  Field size was too small


• 
  
  Bettors are leaving the game and not being replaced


• 
  
  The track takeout was too low:)

view results
Free vote poll

Andy Beyer wonders if Churchill Down's success is going to hurt the horse racing industry even more down the road


Free DRF past performances for the Derby contenders

Free Brisnet PP's as well


Read Harlan Abbey's column about Fort Erie. Lots of bug boys and girls will most likely dominate the winner's circle there this year.

HANA's Next Pool Party and The Simon Husbands Decision

Even HANA makes mistakes. We actually thought targeting Turf Paradise would have gone over OK with our members. Boy, we were wrong. Our argument that Turf Paradise is available to most ADW's including Canada (one quarter of the 1000 members HANA has now are Canadians), and that we could shed light on some of the problems regarding ADW distribution like Arizona's anti-internet state law, where it is now a felony to bet anything including horse racing on-line, or the fact that Twinspires takes Turf Paradise only by phone and only in certain states.

But the reality is that the overwhelming majority of HANA members believe, and rightfully so, that we should not be rewarding tracks, even at no fault of their own (though the owner of Turf Paradise apparently supported the anti-internet ban in this case), that are involved in things that are so against the player. Also, Turf Paradise has extraordinarily high takeouts. Reasoning like this is why Woodbine would never be considered in the near future to be part of the HANA race of the week program, and I can't argue against the reasoning.

So last night, in our weekly conference call, it was unanimously decided that we ditch Turf Paradise, and instead we are focusing on Hawthorne race 6 on Saturday.

Please support HANA and play the race. Bet however you like, win, place, show, exactor, triactor, or whatever, just play the race. Here is a link for free Past Performances and bias reports, etc. for the 6th race at Hawthorne on Saturday.

Sticking with HANA, at midnite last night we got our 1000th member. The HANA day at the races was well received. And HANA president Jeff Platt was given air time by TVG. For HANA members and especially those who haven't signed up yet here is the TVG video (Jeff does a great job explaining our mission):

To Join HANA Click Here
It is free, gratis, no cost, no obligation. We just want our numbers to grow. The higher the membership the bigger the voice HANA will have as time goes by.


Simon Husbands Year Suspension Overturned

I said from the start that the punishment seemed to severe, but to me a punishment was still warranted. I think 15 days would have been in order.

But what the ORC did was humiliate the Stewards. These are three ex-jockeys who gave Husbands the suspension based on the ride. You'd think that they could tell if a rider was trying or not. Check the video out for yourself:

My favorite part of the ruling:

Public participation in an Internet Racing blog site where gratuitous opinions abound. This blog evidence was sparingly introduced, it being recognized that the evidentiary use was limited. The relevance was to demonstrate the existence of controversy, pro and con. That evidence was not introduced for the truth or reliability of its content. In passing, it is noted that irresponsible blog participation dealing in misinformation, innuendo and lack of informed opinion has an immense capacity to inflict irreparable harm on individuals and upon racing itself. An uninformed opinion is probably expressed more for the benefit of the declarer than for the reader, if there be one.
**************************************
This wasn't pertaining to my blog btw. But can anyone believe the stupidity of the ORC to put this in?
Three ex jockeys (the stewards) shared the same opinion of the readers and commenters of the blog and threw the book at Simon Husbands. I guess they had an uninformed opinion too.

I started a thread at Pace Advantage. One forum member named Onion Monster said: "So, they not only overturn the ruling but also disparage the internet discussion as an exercise in self-aggrandizing gossip? I want this jock's lawyer."

As I said in another forum regarding my view of the race in question:


My view on the race is that is was run very slow, but the perception of Simon Husbands ride is all that matters. He didn't look like he was trying to win, and the Stewards (who all happen to be ex jockeys) agreed.
They were humiliated yesterday as the decision to suspend Husbands for a year was overturned.
He should have got at least 15 days. The defense that he was following instructions doesn't wash right. What if the trainer said go 8 wide, I just want this race to be a prep for a distance race next week?
The time of the race was not brought up. It was a $25,000 claimer for maiden 3+. The final time was 1:27. Maiden 2 year old fillies running for $25,000 claiming ran 1:26 just two races later.
The defense that the race was one of Bug's Boy's best is too bogus. It wasn't his best Beyer rating, and in fact, the Beyer rating has to be wrong for that race. The TSN number shows it was one of his worst races, and so do my personal ratings.

Click here to view the entire ruling.

I have a lot more respect for the Woodbine Stewards than I do the ORC thanks to this reverse ruling.

Ontario Lottery And Gaming Could Be In Deep Doo Doo

$3.5 Billion Lawsuit Looks Good From The Plaintiffs Side
A $3.5-billion lawsuit against the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corp. on behalf of more than 10,000 problem gamblers - with ramifications for many thousands more across Canada - reveals a devastating glimpse into a lucrative government business that leaves some of its best customers in financial ruin.......
Aubrey Dennis 49, a Markham man, lost a big whack of dough playing slots mainly at Woodbine and Casino Rama. He is the one who launched this lawsuit on behalf of gamblers on the self exclusion list.
After losing an estimated half a million he eventually signed the self exclusion contract, and was photographed and told that if he was seen at an OLG casino he would be charged with trespassing.
He was only turned away once (a bus to Casino Rama), but even on that day he wound up going to Woodbine instead.
He proceeded to lose a couple of homes and his job.

The fact that the OLG was stupid enough to have a self exclusion form that they obviously couldn't/wouldn't enforce properly puts them in a very bad situation in my opinion.

Personally, I'm not sympathetic to Mr. Dennis either. He knew he had a problem, but still went to the casinos obviously hoping they wouldn't turn him away. He may gain here because the system stinks. The fact that our society thinks they need to have these types of lists is ludicrous. I mean, how can you stop someone from losing their rent money and food money on lotteries? Until we utilize fingerprint technology, it is completely unrealistic for society to stop a problem gambler from gambling. And the OLG should have known this before OKing the self exclusion program.

The OLG profited over $2 billion last year, so $3.5 billion is still a lot. A similar but smaller lawsuit was filed previously by Joseph Keyes, who signed the self exclusion document. He settled out of court for an undisclosed amount. I have no idea what the OLG will use as a defense for this one.

For those who don't know, 20% of slot profits in Ontario are split between the racetrack and the horsemen.


In related news, a gambling postie in Calgary gets to spend time in jail for stealing mail and forging checks.



Friends Of Fort Erie Thoroughbred Racing
The EDTC of Fort Erie, in an attempt to put a plan together that will look good enough to the government, that they will guarantee a $35 million purchase plan of Fort Erie race track by the EDTC, has put together a web page asking for suggestions on how to improve the bottom line at "The Fort."
I sent a couple of suggestions regarding post times. I have more. They have my number. Here is the suggestion box page.


Speaking of Fort Erie, opening day is just around the corner. The first Saturday of May (same as the Kentucky Derby).

Some of the Fort Erie jockeys are seen in this Youtube video working on their fitness and timing:

OK, that was just a mild attempt at humour. It does look like fun. Maybe this could count as another idea for Fort Erie. This would be a great attraction for kids, though I'm not sure how insurance companies would handle the danger aspect of it. These inflatable horses are unpredictable, and a child still risks serious danger, though it is highly improbable, it could still happen, helmets or no helmets.



Good news for bettors; bad news for business that don't want to compete like Woodbine: Canada May Get On-Line Gambling.



Wagering drops in New York OTBs. Didn't they just raise takeouts "thinking" it would mean more money for the OTBs and the state? Morons. Sure the economy has something to do with it. So does competition as New York residents can actually get rebates or rewards by sitting at home and playing with ADWs like Twinspires, Youbet and Premier Turf Club amongst others. The OTB's cry that they can't compete with them is complete hogwash.



Semi success story: Heather Takashi used up her savings to buy a broodmare, patiently sat on the broodmare until breeding her and producing a pretty nice foal who has gone on to win considerable dough. Skill, luck, and patience is the key to making money as an owner (Luck is the number one factor by a country mile).
H/T Jen's ThoroughBlog


Winning Ponies (an internet radio program) hosted by Ed Meyer recently interviewed Chantal Sutherland: Click here and listen to it.


Don't forget to check out the free Past Performance available by clicking here thanks to Brisnet.

The Daily Racing Form has a free page that shows profiles of the contenders, including their last couple of Beyer numbers and video links as well.


Jeff Mullins gets 7 day hand slap for dissing the rules. NYRA may impose further sanctions.


Stalking bid dropped for Magna Entertainment. Stronach appears to be a goner now, as he lost leverage to play more games. Good.

Why Horse Racing Bloggers Need To Keep Being Critical

Ray Paulick has an interesting piece called Thoroughbred Media: Maybe We Can We Blame The Messenger. His main contention, at least how I read it, is that the media has too many alliances with advertisers and the race tracks themselves to effectively criticize the business, a business that is in terrible straights regarding public opinion of it. And up until recently, when independent bloggers have now come along, it was this silencing that may have contributed largely to the state the industry is in today.

Now bloggers, former paid journalists like Paulick, and Paul Moran, and groups like HANA have started to be able to voice criticism and it is being heard. The industry is finding they can't sweep their way of doing business and their dirty little secrets under the rug anymore. And guess what? The game is slowly starting to try to correct the wrongs that are currently plaguing the sport. Slowly being the key word, but I think it is starting to move in the right direction now. We can't depend on the Thoroughbred Media to clean up the sport, though I think that we have opened the door for them to be more critical, because they now have to compete with bloggers, and since we report these issues, tracks and advertisers may have a problem keeping things out as time goes on. A publication needs readers before they can get advertisers.


Personally, I think that instances such as Mullins flagrantly violating laws need to be printed as much as possible. That is the only way change will come about. Not if violations are hidden (much like what happens in Ontario still. Try finding trainer or jockey suspensions on the internet regarding Ontario horse races. Not even available at the ORC site).

Equidaily doesn't like the tone of most of the blogging community regarding the Mullins Air Power incident.
I disagree with Seth. I think, we as bloggers should be full of speculating and pointing out the worst. Again, for the sake of future change.


Bug's Boy Was Out On Sunday
The horse ran fourth with Chantal Sutherland aboard. I thought the horse was too close to the pace, and wound up chasing in the stretch. Chantal did hit the horse with the whip with around a furlong to go, but that was because the horse wasn't gaining ground on the eventual winner. By that time, Bug's Boy was tired from the exhausting early fractions, and he lost a couple of positions to the wire. Did the whip help him? Probably not. Did it hurt him? Probably not. But at least it gave the betting public the impression that Chantal was trying her best to win the race. This is something Simon Husbands didn't do during his now infamous ride on November 30th.
I'm not sure if Husbands got out of his year's suspension or not, or if a decision has been made yet regarding his appeal. I'm sure Woodbine has done their best to try to silence the feedback of this case and has probably issued their usual warning to local writers. To be fair, if my livelihood depended on writing about Woodbine, I would probably lick Woodbine's butts too. But that is why independent bloggers like me are needed, in order to help improve the wrongs of the game by shedding light on them. And because my audience isn't as vast on a daily basis as those who write for newspapers and other publications, I repeat myself on purpose, so over time, enough people can see what matters.
I wrote here a couple of times that on November 30th, the time of race Bug's Boy was in was extremely slow for that day. According to TSN ratings (Thoroughbred Sports Network) Bug's Boys rating were as follows: Sept 19th-67 Oct 3rd-70 Nov 8th-60 Nov 22nd-62 Nov 30th-61. My numbers, which are arguably the best in the business (note: they are on a different scale than TSN) are as follows: Sep 19th-69 Oct 3rd-68 Nov 8th-63 Nov 22nd-62 Nov 30th-61
In all but the November 30th race, the horse was whipped. Chantal was on him for his highest numbers in the early fall.
Here are the conclusions I am making according to the numbers and my watching of most of Bug's Boys previous races. The horse tends to make one move, whip or no whip. He got a perfect trip on November 30th, but the race was run at least 2 seconds slower than it should have for that day (making me suspect a boat race). The winner could have gone faster but didn't need to be he wasn't pressed at all during the race. Bug's Boy ran a slow was, but it was good enough for second. The fact it was one of his slowest races if not his slowest, the trainer can't say that the horse runs best when not hit by the whip.
Incidentally, on Sunday, I gave Bug's Boy a 70, a nine length improvement over his November 30th effort.


Woodbine Expansion Plan to go slower than originally anticipated. They are going to carry it out in stages starting with a golf course first. Now what does a golf course have to do with a gambling empire? Damned if I know. How will it get people to bet more or attract more gamblers? No clue. It is hard to bet when you golf. But golfing has historical roots that goes hand in hand with the Willmot Old Boy's mentality, that is for sure. It is a nice toy for David and his elite monkey staff. They do look like the golfing type. No visible minorities. But then again, Toronto hardly has any visible minorities (sarcasm off).


HANA on Trot Radio: Give it a listen.

HANA is having their first Day At The Races. It is being held at Keeneland on April 18th. Many of the members, including the founding members will be meeting face to face for the first time. Read more about it here. It doesn't look like there will be a Cangamble siting in Kentucky though.

Our weekly race pool party is gaining steam and notoriety. The financial impact of what HANA members are capable of doing is still a little on the lite side in my opinion. We did manage to create a new high for an exactor pool at Mountaineer this year, but I think the numbers HANA brings to the table will increase much more in the near future.

Woodbine thoroughbred fans and bettors should check out Triple Dead Heat. He has some good stuff there. But don't look for too much criticism of Woodbine, if any. I'm not taking a shot at him, but because of his alliance with Down The Stretch Newspaper, he has to walk softly because Down The Stretch Newspaper relies on industry advertising. And you just won't see the kind of criticism you see on my blog for example by someone who relies on advertising to keep afloat. Sure, you'll see criticism of horse slaughter, but that is like shooting fish in a barrel. You won't see an interview with Nick Eaves where the interviewer asks him how he justifies ramping up the track takeout on betting propositions like the Tampa Bay Pick 3 or Keeneland triactors.
I still like Down The Stretch, it is full of interesting stories especially having to do with the local Ontario horse racing scene, but if you want to see hardcore criticism you have to check out many of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance blogs. A few of the blogs there are written by professional thoroughbred journalists, but most are not.
Down The Stretch to their credit, at least reports the news. They were one of the only journals to even report on the Simon Husbands hearing. It did get a paragraph at the Daily Racing Form too.


Speaking of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance, Colin's Ghost has an excellent post on the history of horse doping. Did you know that cocaine was commonly used in the early 1900's? Or that the first test for drugs didn't happen until 1934?

Also, Pull the Pocket has a great post up regarding the current deal Woodbine has with the horsemen, and like me, he thinks it needs to be rewritten so that horsemen receive a percentage of the total takeout, not a fixed percent of what is bet. It is all about growing the game. And the current deal definitely hinders growth.

Ray Paulick has what could be called an expose on alcohol use in Arizona on thoroughbreds. Don't think it doesn't happen everywhere. Incidentally, trainers Keith Bennett and Justin Evans continue getting suspended, and continue to come back and maintain 30% win percentages. This is why I say that any trainer hitting above 18% is probably using something illegal or not tested for.

I found this interesting in the Paulick article:

Another trainer, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told the Paulick Report alcohol is also being used in connection with so-called milkshakes, which contain baking soda and electrolytes and are designed to reduce the lactic acid buildup that causes fatigue. The concoction is mixed together as a paste, the trainer said, and can be administered through a dose syringe, though it is more effective when given through a tube into the horse’s stomach.

“You’re getting them carbohydrates at the top of the lane where some horses are running out of gas,” the trainer said.

The word concoction is the key word here. It just brings me back to Jeff Mullins. I saw an anonymous comment on one of the blogs that stated that Air Power masks a drug nicknamed "Billie Holiday." I have no idea what that drug is, but it is named after the great singer/junkie Billie Holiday who had a lifelong problem with heroin, until she died of an overdose. Bloggers bring out such anonymous comments. Sure, we can just brush them aside as insane rantings, but when it comes to horse racing, I tend to take them pretty seriously. The comment section can be sort of an anonymous hot line, or a confession booth.


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Rebates Are The Way Of The Future

Anyone who reads this blog knows that I am a major proponent of dropping takeouts, but realistically, it just won't happen in the near future. For a drop in takeouts to be effective in growing the game, it has to happen across the board, all over North America. One problem is that every jurisdiction have their own ways of dealing with takeout. Some state or provincial governments take a big whack of taxes, while others like Ontario, take very little. Some jurisdictions require a lot of red tape just to get a takeout change, while some, like Ontario, make it easy to drop or raise takeout.

Then you have horsemen deals, like in Ontario, where H.I.P. (Ontario's Horse Improvement Program) gets 2% on each wager and 4% on triactor bets. These type of deals were not carved out by anyone looking down the road, or even thinking that perhaps a takeout drop might happen in the future.

If that was the case, the deal not be on the percent wagered, but a percent of the overall takeout. For example, even if the racing execs at Woodbine are embarrassed by having a 28.3% takeout on triactors, the way the contract is written, if they were to lower to the industry standard of 25%, H.I.P. would still be getting their 4%. If the contract would have been written correctly, at 25%, H.I.P.S. would get 3.53% at that level. This contract gives the Woodbine execs the excuse not to even look at takeout drops.

Of course, a drop in takeouts, would mean more money bottom line. It works in slots, Betfair, sports betting, online Poker, etc. Especially the skill games, which horse racing is, when winners are created, more players are created. More players means more money for the tracks in the long run. Plus the longer a player lasts, the more time they will devote to playing. The more likely they are to become hooked, and the more likely they are to bring family and friends to the track to give it a try.

But I also see a case for tracks to keep takeout levels higher than other forms of gambling. But only in the case of people who come to the track once or twice a year, and/or those who decide they don't want to have a betting account. Some tracks have their big on track handle days, and I really can't argue why they shouldn't get a bigger cut from the people they may never see again regardless. This also includes the corporate dining crowd too. I have no problem with these people having to play at a higher takeout level, as long as they have the right to open a betting account and get rebates if they choose to do so. Once a person has a betting account, they are likely to play a lot more often than those who don't anyway.

No one knows what the optimum takeout level is, but I know for sure it isn't 20-21% which is the collective takeout average in the industry today. Most studies have the average pegged between 10-13% though.

This is where rebating comes in. Once a dirty word, rebating is becoming more and more prevalent in the industry today. More and more tracks and ADWs in the US are starting to give their account players 2% on at least selective bets, and their big betting players are carving out much bigger deals (7-10%). I even know players getting 12% or more at selected ADWs.

Personally, I believe all account players should get equal rebates. I'm a firm believer that today's big player was yesterday's small player. Again, my logic behind rebating small players the same as large players also has to do with the fact that most people only have so much discretional money they can lose during the long run (in this case, the long run is 6 months to a year). If they lose quickly betting horses, they are more apt to bet other things including buying lottery tickets, etc. If they get rebated daily or weekly, they get a constant reminder to stay in the game. And 2% doesn't cut it (and the piddly stuff Woodbine rebates most players is laughable). No, rebate every account player 6% and watch handles and profits soar.

Still, there are some takeouts which have to be adjusted, as they are borderline criminal. Philly Park, for example, has a track takeout of 30% on triactors and superfectas. Just disgusting, and just a little more disgusting than Woodbine which has a track takeout on triactors of 28.3%. I have no idea how Fort Erie gets away with track takeout of 26.3% on exactors (a good 6% higher than industry standard), but maybe they aren't getting away with it, and maybe that is just another reason why the track is near death.

Speaking of Fort Erie, the proposed speedway may not be a dead issue after all. How about The Jeff Gordon Speedway? That could be good for slots and maybe even horse racing too, because fans can only watch auto racing for so long before they have to do something else.

I still find it amazing that tracks like Woodbine, Philly, and Fort Erie who have slots, have higher takeouts than those without slots (perfect example is Keeneland). It is a wonder where the track focus really is when it comes to tracks with casinos.

For an almost up to date track takeout chart of most North American tracks, click here.



A couple of other things. I want to thank those who emailed with their disdain over Woodbine/HPI when it comes to their ramping up of takeouts on some simulcast wagering propositions such as Keeneland triactors and Tampa Bay Pick 3's. I knew I wasn't alone on this issue.

HANA was able to more than double the pool at Tampa Bay during last Tuesday's Pool Party. This week, we tackle a Mountaineer exactor on Tuesday night. I'll update which race as soon as it is decided upon. UPDATE: It will be race 3 on Tuesday night. Bet the exactor to help support HANA.