26 January 2007

12 January 2007


I went 3 and 1 against the spread last weekend and I was 0 and 4 on over unders....hiss....boo....hiss.

Baltimore by 4 against Indy. Just by 4? Are you kidding? Baltimore will cream Indy.
Baltimore has a very good defense and their offense is extremely under rated. McNair has a lot of playoff experience and he has 3 good targets and an A-list running back.
Indy has holes everywhere. Final score: Baltimore 27 Indy 13

Philly getting 5 against New Orleans. The over under is making me take Philly here, but I doubt they will win. New Orleans has a lot of offensive options, and Philly is just not that good. Final score: New Orleans 31 Philly 27

Chicago by 9 against Seattle. If you listen to some people in the media, you have to wonder if Chicago will score 9 points. I think this is a perfect example of a good team playing a not very good team. Chicago will get the lead and drain the clock in this one. They'll probably get a defensive TD as well. Final score: Chicago 23 Seattle 10

San Diego by 4 and a half against New England. San Diego can score TD's, I'm not sure if New England will succeed very many times in the red zone. Rivers is a big question mark, but watch for Marty to try to take some chances early to shake the conservatism that follows him into the playoffs. Final score: San Diego 27 New England 16.

4 January 2007


After going 30 and 21 against the spread this year, I am as qualified as anyone in Canada to make predictions on American football.

Kansas City at Indy:

KC really fluked into the playoffs this year. They need San Fran to defeat the Broncos in Denver. Completely improbable, but the reality is that they are in. Trent Green has looked shaky since coming off his concussion, but he does have experience. Indy has looked horrible against the run. Jacksonville disgraced them a few weeks ago. Indy is not going anywhere even if they win this game. Larry Johnson is a premier running back. KC's defense is hard to predict, but I'm leaning on thinking they are better than Indy in this department. With the line being 7 with an over/under number of 50 1/2, I'm leaning to KC covering. I think bookies would have made Indy 9 if Indy was a cinch.

Take KC over.

Dallas at Seattle:

The first thing I noticed was the spread here. Seattle is only 3 points favored and the over under is a very high 46 1/2. Seattle made it to the Super Bowl last year. But Alexander isn't the same. The wide receivers are hurting and the defensive secondary is hurting real bad. Still, Dallas has looked horrible of late. Here is the thing, Parcells is a very conservative coach, but Holmgren is no David Copperfield either. When Dallas faces a team that takes chances, they are in trouble. They are not in trouble on Saturday.

Take Dallas and the over.

New York Jets at New England:

New England is 9 points favorite and the over/under is at 37 1/2. The last time they met was the same time I got eliminated from my survivor pool. The Jets had New England's number that game. New England will correct things. Brady has lots of people to pass to. Kevin Faulk all of a sudden gets his name mentioned at playoff time. Dillon didn't have to grind through the season thanks to Maroney, so he is relatively fresh. I just can't see the Jets win this game, but then again, I couldn't see them make the playoffs either.

Take New England and the under.

New York Giants at Philadelphia:

The Giants look terrible. They didn't even look good when Tiki exploded last Saturday. The other Manning threw for just over 100 yards. He has looked terrible, and he just doesn't have too many targets. Philadelphia is a team that loves to take shots. Garcia is a good fit for their offense, but you need the big play in these types of games. I look at the spread; Philly by only 7 with a very high 46 1/2 over/under and I'm convince the Giants will cover. Just how they will cover is beyond me. But Vegas rarely loses money, and they started this game at 6 and a half.

Take the Giants and the over.

Chicago and New Orleans will jog in their respective games when they play the winners of the Philly and Seattle games. Defense is big in the playoffs. Chicago will kill any of the four teams playing this weekend. New Orleans has so many options with Bush, McCallister and a rested Horn and Colston. Drew Bress and co. will sail through their first round.

And I'm leaning towards New Orleans to beat Chicago in the NFC conference battle.

Indy is going nowhere, win or lose. KC is an improving team and a bit of an enigma.
New England may out experience San Diego if they play the following weekend, but they are going nowhere against Baltimore. The Jets would be a surprise if they stay alive for next week.

Schottenheimer is a very conservative coach, going into the playoffs with a very talented running game but a very inexperienced quarterback. I don't see him getting to the Super Bowl. Baltimore has an awesome defense, a very experienced quarterback in McNair who has a pretty good crew to throw at.

Look for a New Orleans-Baltimore Super Bowl, with Baltimore winning it all. McNair is on track to be the second black quarterback to win a Super Bowl.