CANGAMBLE: February 2007

28 February 2007

Headlines For February 28th

Important Rule Changes For Harness Racing Announced by ORC

Mark MacDonald told he looked fatigued and to take some time off. Chris Christoforou Jr. takes vacation for "personal" reasons.

Magna Entertainment Announces New CEO

John Simmonds back in charge of Trackpower

More about investigation of Rick Zeron and the drug Aminorex

Casino Nova Scotia workers to unionize

Canadian bred Buffalo Man to miss the Triple Crown due to injury

Trainers Anthony Montini, Jeff Gillis, Anthony Haughan, Kevin O’Reilly and Rick Zeron barred by Woodbine indefinitely. Horses trained by them can't be entered for 30 days.

Names of horses who tested positive for Aminorex named

North Dakota betting hub suing NYRA. Owed 1.6 million for payoffs owed from wagering pools.
Interesting discussion on the subject here

Pro poker player Isaac Haxton talks about having 800k tied up with Neteller in the USA:

26 February 2007

Headlines For February 26th

Indiana approves slots at tracks

Rick Zeron becomes 7th Trainer in one week suspendeded by ORC; not allowed to drive either while the investigation results are pending

David Wilmott's bookkeeper for Kinghaven Farm, Christiane Kohn, charged in fraud

US to exempt some youths on passports

NYRA banning some shippers due to herpesvirus concern

Funny Commercial:

20 February 2007

Headlines For February 20th

ORC Charge 3 Harness Trainers for Allegedly Using Class 1 Drug

Former Track Caller Rankin's Death Being Investigated; Possibly Linked To Rash of Drug Charges. He Was Outspoken About The Use of Drugs In Horse Racing

EPO use rampant at Monticello; Probably most tracks too

Magna Entertainment Books Writedown on Austrian Racino

Betting On the Father of Anna Nicole's baby
Larry Birkhead -500
Howard K Stern +400
Test will be inconclusive +500
Other +1000
Test will not be administered by 12-31-07 +400

*All odds subject to change without notice.

California pulls Beulah's signal; track owner wants to cut purses 20%

Canadian Lotto Numbers Posted By Mistake

17 February 2007

Headlines For February 17th

ORC investigates 20 positive tests

Revenues Rise Sharply For Seneca Gaming

NYRA reports losses of 3.9 million for January

Cryptologic Shows Drop In Profit

Jockeys In Britain Keep Getting Banned For Race Fixing

NETeller to cut 250 Canadian jobs

WEG orders 4 trainers to race out of the detention barns

Blast From The Past
Here is Northern Dancer and the 1964 Preakness:

13 February 2007

Headlines For February 13th

$250,000 Bison City moved from Fort Erie to Woodbine

Buffalo casino facing more legal hurdles

Former Rideau Carleton track announcer Randy Rankin, shot dead.

Highly successful Canadian born horse owner Trudy McCaffery dies

Polytrack kickback thought to be dependant on track temperature

Mountaineer hoping Erie slots will open by the end of this month

Alberta denies they are considering on-line gambling

Frank Stronach makes sure his retired horses are well taken care of

Widespread drug use may be reason for high rate of deaths in US horse racing

MTR Gaming sells Speedway Casino

Michigan racetracks look for 2008 slot ballot

Instant Racing dead in North Dakota

Malcolm Lynn's appeal denied, and ORC increases fine and suspension

8 February 2007

Headlines For February 8th

Corey Johnson resigns from Magna to join group of investors buying unnamed racetrack

Canadian Thoroughbred Ratings for 2006 announced

Alberta considering internet gambling
Alberta Native Indian Internet Gambling Scheme Investigated

Magna announces disposal of non-core real estate

Two top executives leave Senaca Gaming

2000 Canadian Horse of the Year Quiet Resolve Dies

OTB fixes machine that gave "free" bets

Horse racing in trouble in New Jersey without slots

Plans submitted for U.K.'s first racino

$350 million possible for Virginia if they let Instant Racing in

Woodbine Harness Pick 7 Up to $150k for tonight

Pennsylvania Slots pass $1 billion in handle since they started November 14th

Neteller announces US Funds seized

4 February 2007

THOUGHTS ON THE TRACK TAKEOUT/SUPER BOWL PREDICTION

Brisbet's Ted Mudge really let David Willmot have it on a radio show last week. Willmot wasn't there, but his ears must still be burning. Mudge called Willmot a beggar, who without slots, would have driven Woodbine into the ground. Listen here, the attack happens at the 6 minute mark (But the entire interview with Mudge is well worth listening to).

The point Mudge was addressing is Willmot's constant whining about other on-line gambling that is available, which he feels is hurting his corporations bottom line.
What Willmot is denying, either wilfully or deceptively, is the fact that the horse racing gambling industry has been in trouble for ages, even before on-line poker, rebate sites, and exchange betting sites arrived. The younger generations did not replace the older generations loyalty and addictiveness to horse racing. The younger generations gamble, and even more so than before, but they do so on games of chance that have a much smaller takeout.

Willmot, unrealistically thinks that if you ban the competition, you will get the
younger crowd. WRONG. The way to get the younger crowd is to give the gambler a chance to win. Right now, the way the game is set up with it's ridiculously high takeouts and lack of marginal to bad handicappers adding to the pools, all that is left is backstretchers and knowledgable handicappers (who are too lazy to wake-up and open up a Betfair account or rebate account).

To make things worse, with the slot explosion, the unsophisticated gamblers have put their gambling money to work on the one armed bandits and out of the horse racing betting pools. It is now sharks against sharks.

Back in "the old days," if someone wanted to bet, they had to go to Vegas, or the track. In the 60's, a typical Woodbine or Greenwood card had 8 races, which included only one daily double, and one or two exactors. People left the track usually with at least some money most of the time. The 70's were the same, except more exotic bets were being introduced. Exactors showed up in most races, and then triactors appeared as well (this caused less people to leave the track with some money, but it was still OK) There was no simulcast wagering. You could only bet on horse racing 5 times a week, and there were only 40 to 50 races one could bet on. The crowds were large, and families would go to the track, because there was little competition, especially on weekends. The track takeouts were less significant, because it is much easier to leave a track a winner when you had a bankroll of say $100 to $200 and only had 8-10 races to play. People who leave the track with money, tend to want to come back and sometimes even bring friends next time.
What killed all this, was simulcast wagering. Now, players were impelled to play 10-50 races a day. The track takeout remained the same, so this bled to death the player in a much quicker fashion, making those who left the building with money an endangered species.

The way it is today is similar to blackjack. Except horse racing's takeout is equivalent to a blackjack game where the player would need an 18-21 to win even if the dealer goes bust and ties go to the house. If those were the blackjack rules, the tables would be close to empty, except for the Yahoos that just don't get it.
Gamblers love action. They only have X amount of dollars to lose each year. The lower the takeout, the longer they can last, and the more likely they are to play.
Just look at Betfair. Even with a $6 minimum (actually it is much lower if you are booking a show bet), the action is great. With a $200 bankroll you can all day, and most likely have money left to play the next day, thanks to the low takeouts.

Shutting down the competition won't work. Besides being unfeasible, players don't like guaranteed losses, so they won't go to the track regardless.

Horse racing and football is much more fun to play than slots, blackjack, and poker for most gamblers, and it should be promoted as such. It is easy to make the horse race handicapping part less intimidating too.

What is needed is a complete change in thinking by the entire industry. Change the track takeouts to 4-8 % everywhere. Embrace the idea of low takeout online exchange betting: The industry in North America should do it themselves, instead of letting a third party take a good chunk of the profits.

The racetrack industry must understand that their customer has only a certain amount of money he or she can lose gambling during the course of the year. Eventually, they will get that money, no matter what the takeout is. And a lower takeout will attract many, many more players, and some will actually win. There is no better form of advertising than a professional handicapper who plays all day long and has his house paid for thanks to winning consistantly at the track.
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SUPER BOWL PREDICTION

I can't believe Indy is 7 points. Normally, this would indicate the bookies are expecting Indy to blow out da Bears. Sure, the AFC was much tougher than the NFC, but a good defense usually beats a good offense in big games. The high point spread too is a head scratcher.

Anyway, here is my prediction: