Fraser Downs Attempts To Lessen Intimidation Factor New Customers Face

Baymount Signs FasTrack Agreement With Fraser Downs

FasTrack ("the other racing guide") is Baymount's proprietary software
program that uses sophisticated analytical tools to interpret data and run
calculations that would normally be done manually by a professional bettor.
The new processed data is delivered to fans in the form of a user-friendly
"how-to" guide to placing bets.
FasTrack serves to educate and foster new fans to the horseracing
industry. As noted by Baymount's President and CEO, Graham Simmonds:
"Horseracing is a sophisticated wagering experience and FasTrack helps remove
the intimidation factor. By educating the user, it also provides comfort and
more enjoyment in the wagering experience."

Chuck Keeling, VP of Operations for Great Canadian Gaming stated:
"FasTrack is an important service for our industry.
Our racetrack venues combine the thrill of racing with the excitement of
casino games which attracts a large number of people who might not be familiar
with betting on the races. FasTrack provides a more user-friendly format and
provides anyone with the tools to feel more comfortable with the wagering
experience and have more fun at the track."

Disclosure note: I personally had a lot to do with the development of the FasTrack program as a consultant for Baymount.

As everyone knows, I'm a very strong believer that in order for racing to grow again, a complete overhaul of the takeout system must be done. Winners need to be created so that a buzz occurs in order to get substantial repeat business and create potential lifelong gamblers.

It will take an across the board realization by many or all tracks for this to work.

In the meantime, tracks are desperately out to try to at least try to get new repeat customers. Many new customers typically go to the track on a corporate excursion. And they are tremendously intimidated by things like racing forms and even how to bet. FasTrack helps get rid of the intimidation factor, and in more cases than not, makes the customers first time at the track at least a little more enjoyable, while educating the customer as well.

I'm surprised it has taken such a long time for Baymount's Fastrack program to sell. I'd have expected it to be used by a multitude of race tracks by now.

Good for Chuck Keeling in recognizing the fact that racing has to at least do their best with the hand they have been dealt, at this crucial time where horse racing growth has been declining.

FasTrack is available for both harness and thoroughbred tracks.

For further information on Fastrack contact: Baymount Incorporated, Mr. Graham Simmonds,
President and Chief Executive Officer, (416) 979-2881 Ext. 223



CHRB Pushes For Action In ADW Standoff




Texas Horsemen Sign Deal With Two ADWs
XPress Bet and Twinspires will have exclusive rights to Texas racing signals. I also believe HPI never lost the rights as for some reason they aren't considered to exist as an ADW by warring horsemen groups. I think the same is true for any exclusive state associated ADWs as well.


Keeneland sales drops a whopping 45%



Harness Horse Owner Colm McNulty Could Be A Fugitive

The Ontario Racing Commission is currently investigating McNulty who owns 15 horses.


The post, 2008
Horse Racing Must Drop Takeouts Substantially that was also posted at Bloodhorse
caused a few head veins to bust. I got many comments on this blog, and Bloodhorse got at least 20 comments as well. Bloodhorse does moderate the comments, so they didn't post all of them. It was starting to get personal, so Bloodhorse decided to pull the post.
After I started asking what happened, Bloodhorse agreed to put the post up again without comments. I happened to copy 8 of them when the first 11 magically disappeared, including one comment (by someone named SBVO) who basically questioned my credentials while stating I know just enough to be dangerous, implying I don't really get it. Here are the eight I saved:

SBVO,

You criticize this piece yet offer no back up for your assertions, which frankly are wrong.

Some facts on takeout:

Australia studied it and went to an optimal number (and this was done before the pre-internet age). They, to maximize revenue have a 16% takeout ceiling. Their takeout is 37% less than the US and it is mandated by their central organization.

The UK has six percent takeouts through bookies (on shorter shots), who are in business for one thing - to maximize their revenue. Do you think bookies are leaving money on the table by not charging 20%? If so, with respect, you don't know bookies.

University of Colorado did a study long ago showing 11-13% takeouts are optimal.

The HPBA has said that racing has a churn factor of 7. With that churn factor, which is their own number, mathematically the optimal takeout is 13%.

Betfair in the UK studied hold and settled on about 5% for win takeouts. This firm is now, in six years worth over $4B dollars and contributes millions to UK racing and is widely considered the most successful gambling experiment in world history.

Hong Kong takeout was reduced via rebate by giving back 10% on losses to lower effective takeout. This move last year increased handles to over $67 billion there.

So to say that bloggers are not using facts, and are spouting off about things is simply not true. The people in US racing must realize that this game is priced like a monopoly and the monopoly does not exist any longer. The days of people falling over themselves to bet 22% blended takeouts are long gone, and until modern economics and econometric based policies are adopted to find optimal takeouts, and grow this business, expect the negative 25% real growth this business has had the last ten years to continue.

I have a degree in economics and own my own marketing firm if that makes you feel better about my post, however I am not naive or egotistical enough to think that it matters. This information is there for anyone who wants it by digging on the web, and I for one applaud people like this author for bringing it to the attention of racing. Just like it is inevitable that takeouts need to be reduced for our business to compete, it is also inevitable that good bloggers like this can expedite this process and help racing achieve what we all want - success.


Huh? 15 Nov 2008 4:09 PM

Here's the facts. Horse racing is an elite sport.

The only average people who can afford it are people who are involved in MEGA partnerships, not even the elite partnerships, or at the lower level tracks. Those who own on the elite level have expendable income/funds. We know we're not doing it to get rich, won't happen. It's for the fun, enjoyment, camaraderie, competition and travel. Yes maybe a little ego involved too.

Just like owning a sports franchise isn't available to everyone, owning top race horses in the premier circuits isn't either.

If you have to worry about making ends meet or paying the bills then it's probably not for you at least in the upper echelon.

Truthfully though, does the guy who owns the Yankees have any more or as much fun as the guy who sponsors the little league or softball teams? No, the big league guy just has more headaches.


ImOwnin 15 Nov 2008 4:24 PM

I agree with part of the paragraph above that states...

"In fact, if racing were to increase their fan/bettor base by competing for more players, the other problems would go away"...etc.

And I agree with Huh? about decreasing the racedates to increase purses. Instead of racing 5 days a week, why not cut it to 4 and make it a Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday schedule when more people are able to come out to the track.

But, and this is what I have always had a hard time understanding...

Why is it that most race tracks refuse to run at night with like a 7:00PM first post ??? I mean how can you "EXPECT" people to come out to the races for a first post at 1:15PM on a weekday when most of them have to work untill 4-5-6PM ??? I can understand having a first post of 1:15PM on a weekend when most people are off of work, but on a weekday ??? Racing has always been killing its own potential fan base because of this.

Maybe race track owners just lack Vision and Common Sense ???

Or maybe it's just me ???


CRob87 15 Nov 2008 6:28 PM

FourCats, I wouldn't have the audacity to make suggestions that only benefited horseplayers.

A radical cut in takeout will still get the same bottom line of money lost from the existing horse players, but it will also attract new players on the premise the game is beatable again.

Everybody wins.


Cangamble 15 Nov 2008 8:20 PM

The argument for reducing takeout assumes that gamblers are rational. That's the principal assumption in Econ. 101 macroeconomics, and it's pretty clearly been proven wrong by recent work in behavioral economics.

A more sensible view is that different parts of the betting world have different degrees of rationality. At one pole, nearest the classic assumption, are the "whales" who bet millions of dollars a year through rebate shops, and have an effective takeout rate of perhaps 3%. At the other end are the casual fans, or the old men you see at Aqueduct, who bring $20 to the track and haven't the faintest idea of what the takeout level might be. For them, racing is entertainment, and the $20 is cheaper than going to a ball game. Somewhere in between are the perhaps imaginary members of our target demographic -- all those 20- and 30-somethings who might be attracted by the fun and spectacle of the sport, but who aren't truly rational economic men and women, though they can usually do the math.

At most, 20% of total nationwide handle comes from the rational end of the spectrum. The experiments that have been done to date with lower takeout don't prove anything much, and we don't really know enough to say what optimal takeout might be. When John Brunetti raised it to 28% at Hialeah, that was clearly too much, but I have no idea whether 10%, 14% or some other number entirely is right. Nor does anyone else.

Steve (who has a law degree and has worked as a UN economist)


Steve Zorn 15 Nov 2008 8:48 PM

Good just to see people on here care & wanting to fix things!!! Long Live The Owners!!!


Bellwether 15 Nov 2008 11:18 PM

There are plenty of people who make a living from racing that aren't horseplayers. But, unless you arrange for the general public to subsidize racing (as in slot-machine revenue) and replace the purse money that comes from betting handle with other sources then like it, or not, if you don't take care of your lifeblood, the bettor, the outlook for the game is poor. Reducing takeout will extend the bankrolls of the current customer base giving some of them a chance to actually be winners and position the game in a more competitive light for the general publics' gambling dollars. If you think horseplayers' money is not paramount then why is there so much fighting over it by the various factions that make up the industry?


Richard R 16 Nov 2008 8:37 PM

I'm a guy who went with his dad to the track in the 1970s. I can read the form, and have studied some famous books on handicapping. All to no avail.

A bet made is almost always money lost. I'm competing against much better handicappers, and, most certainly, inside information.

Illegal in the stock market, it's perfectly legal for those "in the know" to bet, or not bet, their horses. And to tell their friends.

And the beaten claimer that runs like Secretariat every so often suggests to me that drugs are much more effective and pervasive than even I, a skeptic, would have thought.

I've been betting off and on for 30 years, and can count my noteworthy winning days on one hand.


Used to Go with my Dad 17 Nov 2008 12:51 AM

I appreciate the fact that Bloodhorse reposted the controversial piece, but I just don't get the attack on free speech that prevails in some of the Blogosphere. Way too much political correctness is going on. These are blogs. Opinion pieces, where writers don't get paid, and neither do the commenters. Let the gloves come off. You only live once.


Good reading on the woes of Magna Entertainment can be found in The Business Of Racing Blog.
Personally, I think they are done like dinner. The only thing Magna can do right now is audition fat ladies to sing:)

Why I Left Racing Part 3 is up at HANA's blog.


Finally, since this a gambling blog from Canada, and Canadians can legally bet on the NFL, at least through places like Betfair, I have to put up this video from Sunday's game between Pittsburgh and San Diego. 5 seconds were on the clock and San Diego needed to go 80 yards for a TD as they were down 11-10:

The film was edited, it took around 5 or 6 minutes for the officials to review the play and conclude the TD didn't count.
Illegal forward pass? Where?
Not to mention that the play isn't stopped because of an illegal forward pass according to the rules.
According to what I read, Pittsburgh was favoured by 4 1/2 or 5, and also attracted close to 2/3's of the action in Vegas which took in close to $10 million on the game.
It is estimated that over $100 million was bet (illegally ha ha) in the US on the game.
Also interesting is the fact that Pittsburgh was penalized something like 15-1 in the game.
Whether the game was fixed or not, it sure smells like it was.
Why did they review the play in the first place, and WTH did they see that made them reverse the TD?

You Can't Blame David Clark For Getting A Slap On The Wrist

Jockey David Clark Receives His Sentence For Vehicular Manslaughter While Drunk

I have to say one thing, the court system in Ontario really appears to suck in a very big way. 2 and a half years ago a teacher lost her life in a car thanks to a drunk driver.

The driver, jockey David Clark, eventually pleaded guilty to drunk driving and vehicular manslaughter.

Not only was it a joke that it took so long for the judge to hand down a sentence, the biggest joke was the sentence itself, especially if the facts reported in the papers were the actual facts of the case.

I was thinking, minimum 3 years (the maximum is 25 years) at the very least. But no. Clark got 2 years less a day (which I think eliminates any discussion of deportation after the sentence, which Clark faced because he is a British citizen, never getting his Canadian citizenship) of HOUSE ARREST.

House arrest which allows him to work and also allows him to leave the house with specific court approved individuals who are over the age of 18.

Is that even a sentence in today's world of the internet? If I was sentenced to leave my house more, I would find that worse than being sentenced to stay home.
Clark obviously got a great lawyer and a very weak judge.

What does this sentence say to young drivers, for example?

The ORC now gets to review David Clark's jockey license. But how can they deny his right to earn a living even after knowing Clark pleaded guilty some time ago? They allowed to continue in one of the most dangerous professions on this planet then. The judge has OKed Clark to continue riding, so the ORC can't do anything to stop him on the basis of his sentence, or at least that is how it appears. I'm sure they don't want to face Clark's legal team. The ORC can't afford to be embarrassed in real court again.

Again, you can be mad at Clark for driving drunk and allegedly taking away the life of a 34 year old school teacher, but you can't be mad at him for the sentence he received. You can't be mad at Clark for riding in races over the last 2 and a half years, but you could be mad at the ORC for allowing him to do so.

I wonder if the sentence and the ORC's lack of action would have been different if a 3 year old was killed instead.


I'll let the Toronto Star commenters take over from here. One thing I found interesting were the comments saying it was actually the car driven by victim Suzanne Muzano's brother that swerved into Clark's lane. I don't see that being true, because all the reports I've read state that Clark swerved into Mizuno's lane.
You have to wonder what the motive would be for reporters to get the facts wrong...I can't see it. Most likely, the commenters making the allegations against Mizuno are trying to make Clark look better than he looks.

Here are some of the comments:

What a Joke

High priced lawyers win again. Imagine anyone else being that over the limit, crossing into the path of a car and killing someone. Your penalty - HOUSE ARREST !!! There has to be an appeal.

Submitted By Raps07



Get your Facts Straights

The thing about this case is that yes Mr.Clark was drinking but Mr.Mizuno was the cause of the accident. EVERYBODY should get there facts straight INCLUDING this paper.

Submitted By brave4



It's a disgrace!

Sentencing this idiot to TWO years of house arrest exposes all that is wrong with our justice system. At the least this guy must have spent these two years in a REAL jail. When are we going to start treating drunk driving as a REAL crime with REAL effects?

Submitted By ProudIndian



life cheap in Canada

It looks like the deal is so he can keep riding. He deserved Jail for five years which would end his career, after all Suzanne Mizuno's career is over

Submitted By tincase



Another Travesty

How is house arrest and the ability to still go to work serve as punishment for killing a 34 yr. old woman? How will this serve as a deterent to others who will get behind the wheel of a car while drunk? It's no wonder our society is becoming more and more lawless.

Submitted By Piper




Shame on you Judicial system!

When are people's lives going to equal more then 2 years of house arrest. I am continually appalled by our legal system where money crimes continue to be a more serious. When are the loss of lives going to be deemed more important. For someone to knowingly get behind the wheel after drinking and then to kill an innocent person..then too get 2 years is a slap in the face of a family who is already grieving! To Ms. Mizuno's family I apologize for our judicial systems lack of justice...hopefully one day soon this will change. sad in the east end.

Submitted By eastgirl



Why should we be surprised?

Remember, the hug a thug members of society say it's all about rehabilitation, not punishment.

Submitted By The Hawk



Outrageous

As we come into the festive season and MADD and police try to make the public aware of the dangers of drunk driving this sentence sends the wrong message. The Crown needs to appeal this sentence immediately. The fact that he works in an industry supported by the rich makes one wonder if there really is a law for the rich and one for the poor.

Submitted By berg girl


Facts Unknown to Public

It's unfortunate that the public isn't aware of the facts in this case, but how can they be informed when the facts are not written about?! What the article should read is: Jamie Minuzo was speeding and Jamie Minuzo swerved into David Clark's car to avoid cows in a field. David Clark made a mistake and he is paying dearly for it, and I'm sure he'll never do it again. David Clark did not cause the accident, Jamie Minuzo caused the accident that killed his sister and he is not being punished.

Submitted By MAS_4



Very Sad

I hope his community service involves going around to schools to talk about drinking and driving, especially where Ms. Mizuno taught. Let him have to explain why they no longer have a great teacher, friend and colleague with them anymore. Shame on the judge for the sentence and shame on Mr. Clark.

Submitted By watercolourgal



No wonger the Mothers are Mad as hell.......

Bookkeeper bilked Toronto daycares out of $800,000 gets three years in prison. And our drunk driver killers get ..... Your bad boys go to your rooms damit.

Submitted By Mr Mr



the real facts

the court facts not the toronto star facts are: mr. mizuno was speeding and swerved LEFT into the path of mr. clarks car rather than going right onto the shoulder of the road and possibly hitting a cow in the field.

Submitted By hi2



get your head out of your ass

The ultimate insult to the family-- some moron responding by blaming it on cows and the other driver. I guess you missed the "according to polic, the Maxima swerved into the oncoming lane" part of the story. David has had substance abuse issues for years and instead of getting help for himself, he took the easy route. That choice left a woman dead. And shame on the horsemen's benevolent association for not helping David overcome his addiction. regards, benny beam

Submitted By benny beam



Yet another joke from our courts

So, Clark has to stay home for 2 years, but he's allowed to go to work. How difficult that must be! At least the rest of the world isn't as crazy. Last month in Oregon, an alleged drunk driver killed 4 people. He is facing 4 manslaughter charges and could get 4 consecutive 10 year sentences (40 years). We need laws with real teeth in Canada. Here's the article: http://www.newsregister.com/article/22702-carlton-man-faces-4-manslaughter-counts

Submitted By K.D.



Some things never Change.

No one knows what an impact something like has on the life of the family of victims unless you have personally gone through it. I lost a brother 29 years ago to a drunk driver, and then again in 2006 with the death of Suzanne. People have been told many times not to drink and drive but do they listen? No! There is no excuse for it. No cows in a field (silly remark),they were in the field not on the roadway, what has that got to do with it. Mr. Clarke got behind the wheel after drinking. Mr. Clarke is not a new driver and I'm sure he knew about the laws of drinking and driving. He made his choice that afternoon. And he should have had to pay a stiffer price than what he received, but I knew when they moved his sentencing hearing to Barrie from Newmarket that they had found a judge who would be lenient with him.Which is a shame. How many more families have to weep at a gravesite of a loved one before the laws are changed to zero tolerance for everyone whether they be rich or poor.

Submitted By gopher



The value of Life

A human life can not be of much value considering the tiny penalty given to a killer. He can stay home when most people are at home and he can go to work when most people go to work. Some penalty!

Submitted By jlane



give the guy a break

It was only 1 life. He's a celebrity for pete's sakes. What's a little drink or eight? When will out judicial system wake up and say 'ZERO TOLERANCE'!!!

Submitted By gawg_you_r_ignant

Another site that has reported the story (also chastising the Ontario Justice System) did attract this from an anonymous commenter:

It's unfortunate that the public doesn't really know what happened. This is a result of journalists writing what they want and not writing the truth. The facts are that Jamie Mizuno was travelling 20 or 30 kilometers over the speed limit on the gravel road. When he came upon David Clark's car Jamie Minuzo swerved in to him rather than swerve the other way to avoid the cows in the field. Yes, David Clark made the mistake of having a couple of drinks and getting behind the wheel of a car and I'm sure he'll never do it again, but the accident was a result of Jamie Minuzo's driving...someone else is paying Jamie Minuzo's mistake.

Do anonymous commenters have it right, while reporters have the story wrong? Again, I doubt it, but I guess anything is possible.

Horse Racing Must Drop Takeouts Substantially

I've written about fixing horse racing many times before. Most notably, June 2007, I wrote a post called How To Save Horse Racing, and in February 2007 I wrote a piece called Thoughts On Track Takeout.

In the last year, horse racing has gone even more downhill even more when it comes to the growth and the bettor. Most of this has to do with the current ADW-Horsemen conflict, but in the last year we also saw even more tremendous idiocy when Calder and NYRA raised their track takeouts.

The economy isn't helping right now, but horse racing has been dying for years. The reason is simple. It doesn't even try to compete with other forms of gambling, and no long term winners are produced, so as to attract new players.

Drugs, potential cheating, lack of proper disclosure, fatal injuries, etc. are just secondary problems when it comes to growth. In fact, if racing were to increase their fan/bettor base by competing for more players, the other problems would go away because integrity would actually matter as the game would be taken seriously again, by the masses, and the masses would demand it.

All the marketing in the world won't help grow the game. Sure, it might get someone to come to the track once, but there is absolutely nothing that will hook the person to be a regular customer.

Aside from the fact that it takes years to understand most of the handicapping nuances that allows a player to be better than average, the reality is that being better than average won't make one a winner. Far from it. A handicapper is considered good if he or she only loses 10 cents on the dollar (the collective average takeout at Woodbine, for example, is around 21-22%).

Racing execs have shifted their mentality. And the result: In the 60's and 70's racetracks were hesitant to even bring in exotics because they were worried that fans would lose money too fast and be discouraged.
Now racing is set up under the baseball stadium model: Get as much as you can from the customer as quickly as you can because they might not be back for a while. You will probably not see many of them again.


Why Was Racing So Popular In The 60's and 70's?
It was the only game in town in many places. Players also had lower takeouts to overcome. No exotics. No intertrack. You only had around 40-45 races a week to play.

Sharp handicappers had speed figures, before Beyer figures came along and were published them in the form. There were winners, there were those who were getting a regular return of 95-1.10 on their betting. Those who won attracted many players to at least dabble as well. Friends and family were brought to the track, because quite a few people left with money in their pockets so they could come back again the next day.

Many of players that are still left in the game today are products of home environments that included at least a day at the track each week with their parents. And this was made possible because the game used to be possibly beatable in the long term.

There were no major lotteries to compete with, and in Toronto, it wasn't until the Blue Jays came into town in the mid 70's that the race track realized they were no longer a monopoly.

Still, because racing was still a monopoly when it came to legalized gambling, the stands and the pools attracted a lot of mooch money. Gamblers who didn't even want to bother reading a racing form, who regularly lost 20 to 30 cents on every bet. This created another edge for those who devoted time to handicapping in an attempt to beat the game.

So how did race tracks react to not being the only game in town? They raised takeouts and tried to compete with more and more exotics. Triactors and superfectas with a track takeout of 25% plus are bankroll killers. They pumped in simulcasts, and nowadays an outfit like HPITV show 15 tracks a day.

Intertrack/simulcast wagering made sure that only a few people could go home with money in their pockets. The least they could have done is drastically reduce takeouts so players could last a bit longer each day. But the opposite happened, triactors with their high takeouts are now available in every race that has at least 6 horses. Racing has become like blackjack in the fact that you can play 5 really good hands every 20 minutes. Except blackjacks house edge (takeout) is 15 times lower than the takeout at a race track.

And then came slots and lotteries. Slots made sure that mooch money in the pools has disappeared to almost zero. There is hardly a player left who bets without a form. And family day is dead as well. Slots are way more appealing to those who just want to gamble. No thinking is required. Yet, even those who run slots realize that if they increased their takeout to over 10%, slots would be in trouble too. People keep coming back because it mostly takes time to scoop the players gambling money. Someone going to the track knows that $100 may give you 6-9 minutes of real action depending on how much one bets. If you are lucky enough, you might cash, and be able to win another 6-9 minutes of real action.

The way the game is set up today, it is impossible for winners to be created. Nowadays you have good handicappers facing great handicappers, and the great handicapper isn't a winner unless he or she is getting a very good rebate.

Marketers can't go there. They can't advertise that the only people who win at the track are those who bet offshore, or those who get substantial rebates. Racing has no long term winning poster boys, whereas poker has many. Is it a wonder that online poker, and other forms of gambling have grown, while racing, despite being available all over the place, has gone down the toilet when it comes to growth?

RACING NEEDS TO REDUCE TAKEOUT SUBSTANTIALLY IF THEY WANT TO GROW, NOTHING ELSE WILL WORK


Takeouts need to be in the 10-12% range or forget about it.

Note: This piece is also co-posted at Bloodhorse Blogs More interesting comments can be found there.

HANA has part two: Why I Left Racing. See also Racing Should Cut Prices Right Now at Pull the Pocket.

Betting Continues To Slide

Betting Drops Again In October Don't shoot the messenger, I want racing to grow, I really do, but racing is dying because the industry is completely dysfunctional, from racing execs to horsemen groups to drug rules. And it simply refuses to compete with other forms of gambling, which is the only way it will attract new long term customers. The takeout has to be reduced substantially or racing will continue its slow death.

HANA's blog has a recent post up "Why I Left Racing, Part One." Well worth reading.

Not helping, is the fact the general public has increased negative sentiment against horse racing because of "animal cruelty" concerns. Read the post by Pull The Pocket regarding the banning of dog racing in Massachusetts.



Don't forget to check out Down The Stretch on the internet. Lots of insightful articles on Canadian horse racing. A much longer article by Perry Lefko on Fort Erie's woes can be found there. I found an article on Ajax Downs very intriguing. Seems that a lot of Woodbine execs showed up there recently. David Gorman, Rod Seiling, Jamie Martin, Nick Coukos, and Nick Eaves were spotted. "Woodbine is interested in horse racing doing well across Ontario," Nick Eaves told the author of the article. Last time I looked, Fort Erie is in Ontario.
Aside from that, Ajax Downs has applied for only 35 dates next year. But the track is now 5 furlongs, making it a realistic though not ideal alternative for thoroughbred racing should Fort Erie close down.



Another good article on the ADW mess. This one mentions The Horseplayers Association of North America as it quotes HANA's President Jeff Platt. I'm surprised Woodbine/HPI was not mentioned as one of the ADW's under the "have" category. I believe Woodbine continues to get good deals from race tracks as warring horsemen organizations in the US seem to ignore them as another source that deprives their purse accounts.

'

Platt, who has penned a critical open letter to the horseracing industry on behalf of HANA, believes availability should be made to all bettors, regardless of the level. And he said players in the HANA organization and elsewhere could really care less how it happens, as long as it happens quickly.

“You don’t walk into a casino and have someone tell you the craps tables are closed, or the blackjack dealers are on strike,” Platt said. “Racing is making it difficult on its players. Players are leaving the game. They are spending their money elsewhere. And many of them are not coming back.”

HANA, which was launched this summer, has just fewer than 300 members that combined wager about $25 million a year, Platt said. “We don’t have enough members yet to stage a public demonstration (such as a wagering boycott), but the day may come when there will be several thousand members. And then we will be able to coordinate some sort of an effort.”

'

The message from Jeff Platt:

An open letter to all participants in the signal wars:

Racing is at a crossroads. Thoroughbred handle is down nearly everywhere. That in itself should be your wake up call. Track management, horsemen's groups, and ADWs - ALL of you should be working together - doing everything within your power to grow handle by bringing new fans to the game.

Instead you have done just the opposite.

This is exactly the kind of mess the industry doesn't need at a time when the last thing the industry needs is any kind of mess at all.

Everyone involved in this mess - EVERY board member of the TOC, THG, TVG, YouBet, TwinSpires, and everyone on every board at EVERY track in North America: ALL OF YOU should be hanging your heads in shame over this.

YOU HAVE FORGOTTEN THE IMPORTANCE OF YOUR BIGGEST ASSET: THE CUSTOMER.

It doesn't matter who is right and who is wrong. No matter which side of this you are on, if you are an active participant in this fight, every hour that you allow this to continue is having a profound effect on the game itself. Simply put: Your actions are driving customers away from the game and giving potential new fans every reason to look elsewhere for places to spend their gambling and entertainment dollars. What a travesty! How can you do this at a time when the game itself can least afford the loss of even one single customer?

Can you not see that you are doing the game irreparable harm?

I implore you to put aside your differences. End this now - before you do the game more damage than you already have.

Sincerely,


Jeff Platt

President, H.A.N.A.

http://www.HorsePlayersAssociation.org

HANA still need members, and we can use Canadian members as well (we are low on them). If you are a concerned bettor it is free to become a member, simply click here and join....it will take you 2 minutes tops.
We need numbers in order to have the pull that is necessary to make the customer count.

The Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance Has Added Four Blogs Including The HANA Blog, The Turk and The Little Turk, Pull The Pocket (which is kind of neat, since it is a Harness Racing first blog), and
another Canadian, Triple Dead Heat, who focuses on Woodbine thoroughbred racing.


Maryland Voters Approve Slots. Magna Entertainment stock really ran up prior to the vote.



Universal Racing Licenses Closer To Become Reality Amazing that something like that in such a dysfunctional industry might actually happen, at least on the harness side.


Keeneland Sales Numbers continue to tumble. And that includes the record amount paid for super mare Better Than Honour There are still gamblers out there. $14 million for a mare who produced two Belmont winners, but was barren last year, and isn't pregnant this year.

What Will Become Of Fort Erie?

A $300-million redevelopment billed as the saviour to all that ails the Fort Erie Race Track has been shelved.
It was shelved before it made news in the first place. The plan made no sense when the economy wasn't gloom and doom, and finally thanks to bad economy, Nordic has come clean.
Nordic ownership is not stupid. They also must realize that recessions only last a year and half usually, so by the time they built the project, the economy would be starting up again. Shelving it now means shelving it forever.
Seriously, why would a company worrying about losses of a couple million a year (supposedly), spend $300 million. What kind of rate of return could they possibly expect by building a hotel and condos in a small town that can barely support two grocery stores?
I'm thinking this plan was a whim that was initiated by the Fort Erie's Economic Development and Tourism Corp(EDTC) shooting the crap with Nordic's management, and Nordic just went along with it, because it could help get a bigger sales price for Fort Erie Race Track, or maybe the government would be stupid enough to finance most of the project.
I'm starting to believe the EDTC and the Fort Erie mayor are either very gullible, very stupid, very corrupt, or a combination of the the three. Mayor Doug Martin has to be included in the mix too. He is coming across as an inept optimist as recently seen by the Save Our Hospital Campaign, which turned out to be another waste of time. I now doubt the auto track will ever break ground in Fort Erie either. The EDTC and Martin are too inept for something so big. The conditions are probably too overwhelming to ever be reality, and the Dubai group probably knows it too.
The reason I even bring up the EDTC is that they helped perpetuate this fantasy project, that was NEVER going to happen. The track could have been sold by now.

So What Happened To The Two Million Dollars The EDTC Squeezed Out Of The Government For The Feasibility Project?
I'd like to know the answer to that one. Apparently it was given to Nordic Gaming. Given to Nordic? How much did they spend? Do they get to keep the balance because they didn't officially call off the project completely, they only postponed it.
Did they spend the $2 million? Is there any accountability?

"We will apply ... we're looking for help from various stakeholders in the track," said Stephen Ayers, without elaborating on exactly what Nordic wants.
"We're looking at some sort of support. We've not worded it yet, it's an ongoing dialogue. It could be related stakeholders, (Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association), the town, the province."
It is only another 5 months before horsemen either come back to Fort Erie or don't. And Nordic isn't even sure what their exact goals are and how they will achieve those goals. Nordic has to go. How can they be trusted? It appears they have already fleeced the government out of $2 million for a feasibility study on a project that was insane to begin with.

That being said, I think a case could be made for the horsemen to get a bigger chunk of the OLG casino profits, because Fort Erie is a border track that supports many jobs, and it is one of only two thoroughbred tracks in Ontario, and it is needed as a place for owners to run horses who just can't compete at Woodbine. Without a B track, owners will not have an out anymore if their horse can't make it at Woodbine or if they don't like the Polytrack. Well, the only out is to take them to the US to run, and not only is that expensive, it gives the owner less incentive to even buy a horse with all the risks involved, owners need an outlet for slower horses in Ontario...and many owners get in the game to watch their horse run live, whether it at Woodbine or Fort Erie. Owners are important, because they are what keeps the backstretch in business.

I don't see a corporation making a case for a bigger cut to keep the corporation in business however. If the corporation can't make a profit, or at least break even, force it to change hands. Nordic never gave a rats ass about horse racing to begin with. They are real estate speculators first and foremost. They are opportunists. They took advantage of The Ontario Jockey Club's foolishness (I wonder if it was Willmot's decision) to get rid of Fort Erie for next to nothing just before slots were legalized. But Nordic was foolish too relying on slots to keep the place profitable. They didn't do a thing to grow the horse race betting side, and viewed the race track as a necessary evil (much like WEG views Woodbine horse racing with respect to betting growth).

Can Nordic Keep The Slots Open Without Having To Run Races At Fort Erie?
Don't expect a Niagara journalist to ask this type of question. Unfortunately, I haven't got an answer to this yet. Is there a loop hole that allows the slots to be open? If not, it might explain why Nordic applied conditionally for race dates. They still get to keep the profitable side of their business running until a final decision is made.
Lets say the answer is that they can keep the casino going. The government will still make a fortune from it, and Nordic will be somewhat profitable. This doesn't bode well for horse racing in 2009 and beyond. I wonder what the cut would be? Would Nordic get to keep 20% of the profits instead of 10%, or would the government get the extra 10% since the horsemen will no longer getting it.
Lets say the answer is that they can't keep the casino going. The track is industrial land. It is not feasible to put up a bunch of homes next the Peace Bridge truck fumes. And it is pretty hard to find a company or companies that are mid size or large that will be attracted enough to move to Fort Erie. So Nordic will have a lot of land that is next to worthless, unless they want to relocate the proposed auto track there, that is. Still, bare land in Fort Erie is still cheap to come by relatively, so Nordic won't get much either way if they sold it.
The only thing that makes sense is for another buyer to come along. One that will try to make the horse racing side work. The OLG will support a new buyer because if they can't operate the casino there, they will be out quite a lot of dough. I don't think they would give Nordic that much support considering Nordic's track record of near extortion (saying they won't run unless they get a handout).

It makes sense for Woodbine to buy the track. Isn't Woodbine a non profit organization anyway? They can afford to absorb a small loss in order to keep the B Track in business. What about turning a profit? Surely, WEG can turn a small loss into a profit....LOL...well, not with their current monkey management, and they know it.

FORT ERIE HANDLE DOWN
Like almost every other track in North America:
FORT ERIE, Ontario - Total handle from all sources on the live Fort Erie meet this year, with its 80 live racing days used in a direct comparison with the corresponding number in the 84-date 2007 season, dropped 9 percent from just under approximately $71.5 million to slightly over $65 million.

Overall, the average daily handle was off $80,869 per day, a corresponding 9 percent drop.

The average daily ontrack handle declined from $81,148 to $67,757, down 16.5 percent.
********************************
Cutting out Saturdays was probably responsible for almost half of this drop. But Saturdays are a very bad overall handle day.

Offtrack handle on Fort Erie races averaged $745,547, down 8.3 percent from last year's $813,026.

Purse distribution was up from last year, as an increase from $8.7 million to $9.4 million gave horsemen an additional $680,740 in 2008, a 7.8 percent increase.
*********************************
That is surprising. The extra money didn't come from betting, it must have come from slots, or money that was accumulated from the year before.

Other statistics of interest included an identical number of average runners per race in both seasons, 7.8 horses per race. The number of races run dropped from 745 to 725 in 2008 and total number of runners dropped from 5,799 to 5,642, down 2.7 percent.
*******************************
Runners were probably down more than they should have because the decision to race came early last year which was late for many horsemen.


Reality Check
Horse racing is trending down in North America at an alarming rate. New horseplayers and new owners (most are introduced to the game because they bet first) are not being created because the game in not competitive with other forms of gambling today (The cost to players ie takeout, is beyond excessive, so nobody wins, and since nobody wins, no buzz is created causing other people to give it a go).
Tracks are closing. The economy is the final nail in the coffin possibly for Fort Erie Race Track.
Fort Erie needs to be sold, or I'm afraid, it will vanish, unless the OLG caves in and gives the owner an unprecedented bigger share of the casino profits.

Thoughts On The Breeder's Cup

I first have to say, I don't get excited over great horses. To me, the game is about picking winners first. When I was a child, winning streaks and track records mattered to me, but now it is all about winning at the races and spotting good claims to tell a few of my acquaintances about.

I can't comprehend someone paying $600 a ticket to see the world's top thoroughbreds live and up close, unless they had money to burn. In fact, I can't comprehend paying $10 for "the right" to see great horses live.

I'm a speed handicapper, and my top angles when it comes to picking winners and exotics get thrown out the door on Breeder's Cup day. I might as well take my racing form (actually my $1.00 print off from Thoroughbred Sports Network), and go to a pet store and line bird cages with it. I could then bet on the horses that attract the most bird waste. I know one thing, I wouldn't do any worse than I've done in the past. I vaguely remember winning one Breeder's Cup day, but I didn't win much.

The problem with the Breeder's Cup is that you have horses going brand new distances, and racing on brand new surfaces. At least it is more explainable when a horse goes from turf to synthetic, then when horses like Arazi went from turf to dirt way back when. Also, horses coming from all sorts of tracks, and horses with varying degrees of time off going into the Cup races. When a horse is off more than 30 days, speed figures become less and less a factor. It is just chaos handicapping. Betting using chaos handicapping only makes sense if you are betting into a 2% track takeout. Like that is ever going to happen.

Contrary to what many bettors like to think, synthetic tracks are here to stay. Any new tracks going forward and any new major track surfacing will have to do with a conversion to synthetic material. I really don't mind it on cheaper races. But when dealing with high allowance and stake races, chaos handicapping becomes a fact.

I like Bill Finley, he is a huge advocate of lowering track takeouts. But he has a book out right now called Betting Synthetic Surfaces, where he sort of concludes that it is a misconception that turf horses do better than dirt horses on artificial surfaces collectively. To be fair, I'm only on the first chapter right now (so I don't know if he has empirical evidence to back up his claim), but c'mon Bill, did you see what happened at Santa Anita over the weekend?

Curlin is a great horse, but the fact that he lost on a synthetic surface has to lessen his stud value a bit. I admire the owner allowing the horse to run as much as he has, especially in the days of early retirements for good horses, but he took a risk, and lets face it, if Curlin is a great stud prospect, what is Raven's Pass? A question has to be put in the mind of potential breeders: Will Curlin's offspring be able to successfully handle artificial surfaces, and is it worth the stud fee gamble?

Stud fees are dropping, partly due to the economy, but mostly due to the slow death of horse racing. Owners with deep pockets are dying, and they aren't being replaced, much like die-hard fans and bettors.

And what about steroids? The European horses demolished the North American horses in a steroid free environment. As more and more jurisdictions created more stringent steroid laws, how long will it take for "our" horses to catch up to the "across the ponders?"

Did lack of steroids come into play with respect to Curlin's loss? I remember Jess Jackson saying that Curlin was going off the hard stuff earlier this year, but what EXACTLY did that mean? Was he completely drug free this year, or just partially drug free, and did he have to even wean himself off other drugs to run in the Breeders?

Breeder's Cup Handle was up 5.5%, but lets face it, there were more million dollar Breeder's Cup races to bet this year, and last year, it was held in the muck.

Going forward, having a horse from overseas coming to North America one or two times in its life to win big events here, isn't going to help our breeding game, and isn't going to do much for racing's fan base. No following is created.

Racing better get its act together and substantially drop takeout, or allow for major rebating at every ADW, in order to grow their dwindling fan base. European domination of the Breeders is just another nail in North American horse racing's coffin.


WILL TODAY BE THE LAST DAY EVER FOR LIVE RACING AT FORT ERIE?
Perry Lefko reports that Fort Erie is hoping for help from the government or other interested parties in order to stay alive next year:

The owner of Fort Erie Racetrack will submit a conditional application for race dates next year, albeit with an option to withdraw before the meet begins unless the government provides financial support.

And because of the volatile economic climate, the owner's proposed $300 million commercial/residential project beside the track has been indefinitely postponed.

Nordic Gaming Corporation spokesman Stephen Ayers said yesterday his company will submit an application to the Ontario Racing Commission for 78 race dates in 2009...."Our application will be on the condition we receive financial help from other stakeholders and interested parties in the track, failing which we reserve the right to cancel live racing at Fort Erie prior to the next race season,"

***************************************

Well at least the $300 million project has been (temporarily?) swept under the rug. Now that it is out of the game plan, Fort Erie's owner needs to be realistic. Pleading for a larger percentage of slot revenues is on the table (and to me it was the only thing that makes sense at the moment). I guess they can ask for a bigger cut for HPI on betting made in the Niagara region and bets made on Fort Erie through the HPI hub by non Niagara residents (but good luck to that, WEG and HPI are too greedy to give an inch).

The other alternative is for Woodbine to at least partially takeover the racing operations of Fort Erie. I don't know how realistic that would be. But it is a definite that Ontario needs a B racetrack and an alternative dirt track, or the badly beaten breeding and owning part of the business will receive a final knock out punch.

Of course, Woodbine could buy back Fort Erie, or better yet, another group could buy the track, but Nordic has a history of grossly overpricing the track.

Even the Fort Erie Economic Development and Tourism Corp is painting a doom and gloom picture when it comes to racing at the Fort next year.
Talk about miscommunication, in the Niagara Falls Review article, the town didn't get the memo that Ayers has suspended the $300 million project indefinitely. Or does Lefko got it wrong. I doubt it, because El-Ad (Nordic is a subsidiary of El-Ad) has suspended a $5 billion project in Las Vegas earlier this year, thanks to bad economic conditions.

UPDATE: Thoroughbred Times has a longer version of Lefko's article.

The president of the Ontario Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association said the situation is not good, but the group is looking for possible solutions.

“It’s a dire situation, that’s for sure,” Sue Leslie said.

Breeder's Cup 2008 Handicapping Edition

First off, this is the way it should be: All ADW's will be accepting bets on the Breeder's Cup, and this includes rebating shops like Premier Turf Club.

Now it is time to reveal my predictions for the Breeder's Cup races. Note: I'm making picks without knowing which races cross entered horses will wind up in.

Handicapping these events is one thing, expecting positive results is another. So many horses, so many trips. And guessing who is peaking and who is not, is hard enough. But I'm going to take a stab anyway.

Filly and Mare Sprint
1.Zaftig-Lays over the field if ready
2.Ventura-Needs a perfect trip like in the Madison.
3.Tiz Elemental-Real longshot. Consistent, and might be peaking.

Juvenile Fillies Turf
1.Beyond Our Reach-Domestic horses look weak in this one. Best from across the pond.
2.Evita Argentina-Madonna was just in Toronto, so why not?
3.Laragh-The best known quantity from the North Americans.

Juvenile Fillies
1.Persistently-This is really really tough race. This one is improving every time.
2.Evita Argentina-I don't know if I'd run the horse here or the turf; tough decision.
3.Be Smart-Last race was better than it looks.

Filly and Mare Turf

1.Mauralakana-Likes the distance; second race off a layoff; I like this one.
2.Communique-Just behind my selection in last. Should make the best from post one.
3.Halfway To Heaven-Getting five pound as a three year old; The best invader?

Ladies Classic
1.Carriage Trail-I don't think she drifted as badly as it says she did;The best!
2.Hysterical Lady-Just lost last year in this race; Really consistent type.
3.Santa Teresita-Distance an issue; This one knows California.

Marathon
1.Casino Drive-If the owners choose to run him here, he will be more than tough.
2.Fairbanks-First time at the distance; Might go all the way.
3.Delightful Kiss-He recently won at Turfway going the same distance.

Turf Sprint
1.Tropic Storm-I like the cutback to his favourite distance (well, on the dirt)
2.One Union-Looks like he is ready to run his best.
3.Diabolical-Probably the best invader.

Dirt Mile
1.First Defense-Cross entered in the Sprint too; Looks best in either race.
2.Lewis Michael-Loves synthetic tracks.
3.Well Around-Should come flying for a good piece.

Mile
1.Raven's Pass-Distance specialist who has been one two in Grade One Europe races.
2.War Monger-This could be a peak race.
3.Bold Chieftain-Likes the distance; good post; class an issue.

Juvenile
1.Believe In Hope-Tough race, lots of horses close on figs; Go with the post.
2.Coronet Of A Baron-First time over a mile but he looks like he can handle it.
3.Munnings-Needs a good trip as do many others here.

Juvenile Turf
1.Grand Adventure-Ran absolutely huge in last.
2.Bittel Road-Hasn't lost yet, and all three victories have been on the green.
3.Coronet Of A Baron-Another cross entered horse; I expect the trainer to know best.

Sprint
1.First Defense-He can't win both the Mile and the Sprint on the same day.
2.Fatal Bullet-This one can fly.
3.Cost Of Freedom-Five for five going 6 furlongs.

Turf
1.Soldier Of Fortune-If the invaders are doing OK, this one will be tough.
2.Grand Couturier-The now horse at this distance.
3.Out Of Control-Might have easy fractions on the lead.

Classic
1.Curlin-As long as he is in near peak form, the race is for second.
2.Mast Track-Knows the track; Could be a pace factor.
3.Casino Drive-If he goes here, he might grab a piece.


Good luck!

To see some of the top races for free, go check out the NTRA site and search for horses are races.

Finally, it appears that there an openly gay horse is starting to cause some commotion:)

Too bad the Onion doesn't even know that Breeder's Cup Day is on Saturday. At least horse racing is on the radar screen, even if it is only a little blip.

Sandy Hawley Does Canada Proud

Sandy Hawley won the Living Legends Race yesterday:

I picked the winner, and no offense to Hawley, but any of those jocks would have won on Tribal Chief yesterday, in fact, almost any jockey in the Woodbine or even Fort Erie colony would have won on that horse as well.
One bit of trivia, if Hawley doesn't ride again, he will remain undefeated on all weather race tracks.
I handicapped the race because of the Brisnet Handicapping Contest I entered. Picked the exactor one two, but didn't bet because I don't get rebated on California horse racing. I would have blown back the profits in a later California race anyway.



NASCAR says no to Fort Erie I'm not sure if the proposed track is being built with NASCAR races in mind since they are starting out with only 65,000 seats, but one thing did come to me, at the risk of throwing political correctness out the window: NASCAR is the center of the "redneck" sport's universe. I wonder if an Arab owned race track will ever become part of their circuit regardless of the location.



Racing Execs and Horsemen Get What They Deserve
California Defers ADW Rule Change Look for California handle to keep going down down down.

NYRA is cutting purses for the Aqueduct meeting by 10%. This comes right after an increase in track takeout on New York races was put into place.
When is racing going to understand that the bottom line drops with higher takeouts and goes up with lower takeouts?

Louisiana Posts modest increases in handle for 2008 meet. Handle is down almost everywhere, but La. Downs is bucking the trend. Could it have something to do with the fact that they make their signal available just about everywhere? Maybe being on Premier Turf Club's menu has something to do with it too.


Krista Carignan wants to come back to the Ontario circuit next year. I wonder if the circuit will be Woodbine and Fort Erie or Woodbine and Ajax Downs.


Halsey Minor looking to buyout Magna Entertainment?


Premier Turf Club's Joe Riddell tells it like it is.
The industry won't compromise with customer needs and wants. It would rather chase away the customer than give in.
"...not only does it not have the right business model, it doesn't have the right management team in place. As a whole you have to understand where our customers are, where they've gone, what they're demanding and recognize that we need to bring them back into the game and certainly back into the revenue stream. ..."

One commenter offers a counter solution to Riddell's central exchange idea:

....Each track needs to be able to accept internet wagers direct. This would give each track an on-track bet. Then the tracks "commission" the ADW's for acquiring the customer and servicing the account....

-Joseph

Horseplayers Association Of North America (HANA) has a good post: Vet Records-For The Bettor
Hong Kong does it right. North America keeps the bettor in the dark.


CLAP CLAP CLAP
Way to go Woodbine. Four days of Pick 6 build up and the carryover is up to a whopping 4 G's. The audacity of a $2 minimum instead of a $1 one shows how out of touch Woodbine is with their customers.

As predicted, so far at least, Emma Jayne Wilson and Eurico Rosa Da Silva have picked up the winners that Chantal Sutherland left on the table.
These two jocks seem to love the colder weather.

Fort Erie To Get Speedway; What About The Ponies?

Fort Erie To Get Speedway

It looks like Fort Erie is getting a major motor-sport speedway. There are still a few bureaucratic hoops to go through, but apparently financing has been secured.

Foreign investment of approximately $200 million will come from an investment consortium is led by Kuwaiti Islamic investment bank Bayt Al Mal Investments.

623 acres of land between Bowen Rd. and Gilmore Rd. has been purchased, and that is where the 65,000 seat complex is supposed to be built.

The complex may include a theme park, hotel and automotive research facilities, according to Fort Erie Mayor Doug Martin.

More Questions Than Answers

All this is fine and dandy. But what about horse racing? What about that ridiculous venture Nordic Gaming is trying to promote regarding a $300 million dollar complex being built on the Fort Erie race track grounds? To my knowledge, Nordic is looking for the government to finance this. The auto track looks like it is completely relying on foreign investment (much more appealing). With the auto track, a smaller version of a new complex being built at the race track is now semi-realistic, but I still don't see that there would be demand for anything but maybe another hotel to accommodate auto race fans on the odd days that there is a big race.

The auto track won't open until at least 2010, but Fort Erie race track is ready to close next year, or maybe it isn't, who knows? With no announcements regarding next year, I'm starting to think that Ajax Downs will be where Ontario's B horses will run. I sure hope not.

If the auto track is built, it will be great for the Fort Erie economy (estimated $34 million in taxes alone), and probably very good for the slots business (it would be good for the horse racing business too (if new ownership for Fort Erie Race Track came along). But at this point, does Nordic really care. Remember, they are mainly a real estate venture firm, and real estate prices are heading in the crapper in the US where they have serious investments, and it is on a down slide in Canada, where El-Ad, Nordic's parent company, has many holdings. They have already postponed the building of a multi-billion dollar complex in Vegas due to the real estate market. Fort Erie Race Track is probably a very tiny concern for the company today.

How about border security? Will the government approve a major investment from an Islamic investment bank, so close to the US border? Will the US put pressure on the Canadian government to prevent this?

With the proposed auto racing track and the Save The Hospital campaign, Fort Erie's race track's future isn't even a priority with local politicians anymore, or so it seems.



Fort Erie Jockey and Trainer Race

Fort Erie's jockey race is tightening. With 7 racing days left, Rui Pimentel has closed ground on Chad Beckon to be only 4 wins behind. Mike Newell is the leading trainer right now with a 4 win lead on both Nick Gonzalez and Lyle Morden. Newell has had 79 more starters than Gonzalez, and a whopping 126 more starts than Lyle Morden. Morden is doing phenomenal, winning one out of every three races he saddles a horse at The Fort.

I've always been a proponent of testing the crap out of barns winning at rates of 20% or greater. I'm not saying high percentage trainers are using illegal substances, but public perception these days isn't good, and what I know about trainers is that there is only so much a trainer can do with a horse without using magic. Sure, luck could come into play for a short period, but I'd feel better and so would the racing community, if more intense testing was done on mega winning trainers.


New York Is The Latest State To Ban Steroids
'Officials were unveiling details about the new effort Oct. 14, but the rules will set new threshold levels for four steroids that are now permitted – and allow only one of those to be permitted in horse racing. The rules affect: stanozolol (Winstrol), one nanogram per milliliter of urine; boldenone (Equipose), for male horses other than geldings; 15 ng/ml; nandrolone (Durabolin), one ng/ml; and testosterone, 20 ng/ml in geldings and 55 ng/ml in fillies and mares.'

I'm not sure what is banned in Ontario and what is allowed, but I don't recall any announcement from the Ontario Racing Commission lately regarding this type of banning lately. The latest mention I've seen was back in early September, and it looks like Ontario is kicking the tires regarding steroid use.

Does it have to do with a conflict of interest? WEG execs having a vested interest in owning horses that might be making money using steroids? Makes me wonder.


This Is Really Cool and It Shows That Horse Racing Is In Trouble
Dean from Pull The Pocket did a guest post at Harness Racing Blog.
He used Google Trends to compare searches made for terms like "horse racing," "poker," "harness racing," etc.
He found out that "Poker, in terms of searches is 1520% more popular than horse racing." Even "Betfair" outnumbers "horse racing" in searches done over the internet.

Speaking of Pull The Pocket, he has a MUST READ post up called You Can't Win. I'll probably chime in a do my own version on my next blog post.


Just over $4000 bet on the initial pick 6 pool at Woodbine yesterday. The $2 minimum sucks big time, as stated before, Woodbine isn't Santa Anita, and the Woodbine betting crowd is not the California crowd. There is a minuscule $2,276 carryover going into today (those who had 5 winners received around $120 each yesterday). I predict it will grow slightly more than the discarded pick 7 grew, but not by much.

Betting Down 10% For Third Quarter; It Will Only Get Worse

NTRA: DROP IN HANDLE ACCELERATES IN THIRD QUARTER
Handle dropped 10% in the third quarter, and it isn't going to get prettier. It isn't the economy either. When the economy was flying, racing was barely staying stagnant.

People have left the game, and they are not coming back. A 20% takeout is impossible to overcome in the long run. The only players with a chance are those getting rebates.

Competition has taken many players out. Slots took the dummies out, but at least slots has a takeout of less than 10%, giving the dummies a bigger bang for their buck than in horse racing. Poker and sports betting readily available on the internet has also taken out lots of money from the pools. Not only do these forms of gambling offer a bigger bang for the buck, the fact the house rakes are so low, winners can be created, and winners create more players, because there is nothing more rewarding for an everyday gambler than having an opportunity to be a long term winner.

Toronto's Daniel Negreanu has become a poster boy for winning poker players. Rising up from being a pool hustler as a kid to a high roller poker player. Why is this possible? You can become a winner if you are good enough at poker thanks to the relatively low rake poker offers gamblers.

I know people who make money consistently at online poker, and I don't know anyone who makes money playing horses, except for those who get substantial rebates.

Pull The Pocket Chimes In On Racing's Downfall


Not only are gamblers walking away, owners are walking away too as seen by the huge drop in sales prices this year and the increase in sales buybacks. Most owners start off as gamblers, even as $2 bettors. New people just are not coming around anymore, and it all boils down to the fact that betting on horse racing is one of the largest "negative expectations" forms of gambling available to the public.



John Pricci Gets It: A Stimulus Package For Lagging Thoroughbred Handle

"It’s called a tax reduction; lowering parimutuel takeout. Whenever and wherever lower takeout has been enacted, over time it’s resulted in increased handle--read revenue to all here. For the groups mentioned above, it’s a win, win, win, win. Less is more; a little smaller slice of a much larger pie."

Brains, vision and guts, based on positive past performances. What could be easier?

What is needed is for the industry to realize they are in crisis mode, and for all the major tracks to reduce takeouts substantially across the board.



HANA (Horseplayers Association Of North America) now has around 300 members, including some high profile bettors. The more members HANA has, the more bargaining power HANA will wind up with. If you haven't joined already and you are bothered by high takeouts and other issues, please click here. There are no fees involved.

Check out HANA's blog, and of course, the HANA website.

HANA's Mission Statement:

H.A.N.A. is committed to giving horseplayers a voice. By banding together we can bring about change and compel the horseracing industry do something it has never done: actually listen to its customers. By making them aware of customer needs and wants we can motivate track management and horseman's groups to reverse course and start doing the things needed to bring the game of horseracing back to the prominence and greatness it so richly deserves.


Pull The Pocket reports that HPI has added Bris stats (free for members) for thoroughbred races which will help aid their bettors in making decisions. Also added, Compubet stats for the harness side of things.

One of HANA's goals is for racetracks and ADWs to give out as much free information as possible to their customers. This is definitely a step in the right direction, but it really is meaningless for most players, who end up betting until they are broke. And with WEG's outrageous track takeouts and the "criminal" markups of takeouts which are lower than their own, this new information might just allow the average player to last one extra race a week, in the scheme of things. It won't create any long term winners which creates a buzz which creates new players.


Woodbine Doing Away With $1 Pick 7, Replacing It With $2 Pick 6
'Woodbine's Thoroughbred betting menu will include a $1 pick-seven wager for the final time on Sunday and will introduce a $2 pick six beginning Wednesday. If there are no 6-of-6 winners, 30 percent of the net pool will go to the best of six, and 70 percent carried over to the next card. The pick six will be on the day's final six races. The takeout is 25 percent.'

A $2 minimum is a big mistake. Woodbine is not California, where the Pick 6 has become like the 6/49 Lottery is here. The pools will continue to stay low for some time because most players won't fund a small pool when they have a very little chance of cashing. In California, the Pick 6 gets substantial play even when there is no carryover. It won't happen here. It might have a shot if the minimum was lowered to a buck.

Today, there is a mandatory payout of the Pick 7. The carryover going into today is over $33,000. I think it took over a month to get it up "this high."


Fort Erie has a new 10 pound bug boy named Mike Mehak. He has a few really live mounts today. Three Thirteen looks good in the 5th. Larry's Dream, also from the Cappuccitti barn is live in the 7th. And even Sneaky Dee has a shot in the 8th, though the distance may be a little too much for her.



Tampa Bay horseman/gambler found murdered
'Lawrence P. Higgins, 61, was found dead in his house....the death was a homicide, with "trauma to the upper torso," according to the Hillsborough County Sheriff's Office....He also was a racehorse aficionado who told Bloodhorse.com that he bet more than $1 million a year on the sport at Tampa Bay Downs...."Last year he had 10 horses," Peter Berube (Tampa Bay GM) said. "I think he had scaled back some recently."

UPDATE: Higgins was a speaker at the recently completed Simulcast Conference in Florida. His views were printed in a Bloodhorse article:

Larry Higgins, executive vice president of the Tampa Bay Horsemen’s Benevolent and Protective Association and a VIP customer at Tampa Bay Downs, said there are four major areas that need improvement: information for bettors, integrity, accommodations for players, and a larger pool of bettors. Higgins, who owns Thoroughbreds, spoke from the perspective of a bettor; he said he wagers about $1 million a year at Tampa Bay Downs.

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Still No Word On Whether Fort Erie Will Race In 2009

Will There Be Thoroughbred Horse Racing In Fort Erie Next Year? It is not looking good. Meanwhile, Fort Erie's owner just won a court case. He can use his Plaza name in Vegas (even though he has suspended the building of it for now).

With real estate dropping severely in the US, I wonder how much Nordic's Owner is down these days in net worth, and how leveraged he was to begin with.

Fort Erie might be the absolute least of his concerns these days.


MAYBE THE BACKSTRETCH CREWS AT FORT ERIE WILL HAVE TO BECOME PIT STOP CREWS
Fort Erie Officials In Dubai Looking For Race Track Investors....For a NASCAR Race Track
'Fort Erie Mayor Doug Martin, Jim Thibert, general manager of the Fort Erie Economic Development and Tourism Corp., and Sandra Pupatello, the Ontario Minister of Economic Development and Trade are in the United Arab Emirates as central figures in the Ontario International Investment team that is taking part in Dubai’s Cityscape Expo...the trio are reportedly meeting with investors in the proposed $150 million (Canadian) speedway that would see a one-mile oval track and grandstand constructed on the west side of the Queen Elizabeth Way highway between Bowen and Gilmore roads — less than two miles from the Peace Bridge.'



ORC gets put in place by Divisional Court ORC Crossed The Line
"The Ontario Racing Commission exceeded its jurisdiction by attempting to discipline a lawyer that had harsh words for commission chairman Rod Seiling during an ORC hearing, the Ontario Divisional Court has found."



Miniature horse race (harness racing) at Georgian Downs on Saturday you can't say they aren't being innovative.



How Patrick Patten (Handride Blog) Would Fix Racing
First thing is first. He needs to win the Lotto and buy TVG for $100 million or so.


OBS Mixed Sale Down Almost 40% I hate to say it, but racing is not only losing bettors, it is also losing owners. Not good. Not good at all.


Betfair To Allow In-Play Betting On All Aussie Races This allows the bettor to bet during the race. They do it for many UK races and select North American races already. Betfair also allows you to bet on select sports games from beginning to end as well.
It is pretty neat. I've tried it before. Amazing how the odds fluctuate during an NFL or NBA game.
To open up a Betfair account and become eligible for a $25 sign up bonus, click here.



Whale Mike Maloney Shows Panel That There Are Problems With Tote Integrity


Sandy Hawley took out his "exercise boy" license yesterday. He is getting in shape for the Living Legends race at Santa Anita on October 18th. Hawley will be in a race against fellow retired jockeys Julie Krone, Chris McCarron, Gary Stevens, Jacinto Vasquez, and Jerry Bailey.


With Catherine O'Brien out for the year, Woodbine is all out of apprentices. The fall is usually a great time for bugs, as the season gets late, weight matters more and more on tired out horses. Melanie Pinto is riding great at Fort Erie, so she is expected to get some really good mounts from now until the end of the season at Woodbine. She has a monopoly right now on talented bugs in Ontario.

Who will fill in the void for Chantal Sutherland? Maybe Emma Jayne Wilson? She has just become another jockey this year, but she might be a good cold weather jock, and she may start getting better mounts now. Eurico Rosa Da Silva is having his best year ever, and he was extremely hot in the fall months last year.

Canadian International Day At Woodbine; The Card Is Impossible

Pattison Canadian International goes today at Woodbine. Lots of money being handed out to successful horsemen all day, but the betting card is next to impossible to figure out, because of the distances and the class of the races.
In the International I'm going with Mourilyan. Lots of experience at the distance, second race after a pretty good layoff. I like Quijano to run well too. As for the favourite, Doctor Dino, I just can't stand who the horse is named after.
Doctor Dino is the nickname of delusional creationist, Kent Hovind. Hovind believes (or at least says he believes) that the world is less than 10,000 years old, and wilfully lies about science while giving misleading credentials about himself. He is currently in jail right now, for tax evasion.
Sure, it is irrational to not like a horse because of his name, but who says horse players are rational?

In case you are still interested in Kent (Dr. Dino) Hovind, watch this:



Jail Urged For Jockey David Clark By Prosecution
On Tuesday, Clark finally had his sentencing hearing months after pleading guilty to impaired driving causing bodily harm and impaired driving causing the death of 34 year old school teach Suzanne Mizuno.
If he gets a sentence of over 2 years, he could face deportation after serving the time because Clark never became a Canadian citizen, and still holds British citizenship.
The sentencing date isn't available in any of the few articles I've read on the internet.
Rob Ramage received a 4 year jail sentence when his drunk driving lead to the death of fellow ex-NHL hockey player Keith Magnuson.
WEG and the ORC have received heat for allowing Clark to ride, especially after admitting guilt in April.



A Toronto Gaming Tax?
The mindless who play slots won't notice the difference, but increasing taxes on the horse race side, including the possibility of charging admission, will absolutely kill Woodbine's already pathetic handle.



Mike Newell has a 2 win lead in the trainers race at Fort Erie. Meanwhile, hot jockey Rui Pimentel is closing in on Chad Beckon. He is still 9 wins behind with 9 racing days to go, so it will be pretty tough to catch Beckon.
Saving Fort Erie's race track has taken a backseat to saving its hospital. Still no word regarding whether racing will happen next year. Lots of pessimism though.

Picov Downs on the other hand, is expanding. Their new 5 furlong track will obviously allow for longer races, and if Fort Erie doesn't race next year, it could be home to the thoroughbred B meet, at least in theory.

No dates yet for Beulah or River Downs either.


A pair of Ohio sulky veterinarians suspended in Kentucky after a truck inspection.

In other news, four horses tested positive for EPO during Grand Circuit Week at The Red Mile.



Latest Magna International resignation raises more eyebrows regarding Magna Entertainment's possible future

Magna stock is down to $1.80 a share, which is equivalent to 18 cents a share because earlier this year the company did a 1 for 10 consolidation.


Woodbine Update By Bill Tallon

9 year old Le Cinquieme Essai has been retired. He has lost a step or two. Only 33 starts in 8 campaigns? Talk about a patiently handled horse.

Woodbine will be without its best or second best (if you include McAleney) jockey after Sunday, as Chantal Sutherland is moving her tack to California.
'Sutherland also has contracted to appear in a reality television show entitled "Jockeys."'

Woodbine has applied for an "identical to this years" schedule for next year.