Showing posts with label California boycott. Show all posts
Showing posts with label California boycott. Show all posts

15 February 2011

Some Recent Historical Takeout Info About Woodbine

It isn't very easy to find historical takeout info, outside of archived newspaper articles, it is especially tough to find old takeouts for Canadian tracks. I used to think they were found in the program. I have some old Queen's Plate programs from the 1960's, and couldn't find it.

I was over at my brothers house the other day, and he showed me his keepsake Daily Racing Form from Secretariat's last race, which was at Woodbine in 1973.

Incidentally, that was the first day I started selling racing forms. I was 12. Sold around 300 forms before the first race, got paid peanuts, and spent the rest of the day in the dining room (my mother was a regular and had a table).

Back to the the old form. Takeout information was in the charts. Eureka. So here are some findings from that form and a few Breeder's Cup forms I have kept through the year:

Woodbine's takeout in 1973 was 17% for all bets. 9 1/2% went to the track (for the track and purses), 7% went to the Provincial government, while another 1/2% went to the federal government. Back then, there was a daily double on the first two races, and 3 or 4 exactors on each card...that was it. Money was churned a lot more efficiently back then, that is for sure.

I'm working on finding some info from the 80's or early 90's, because lots changed from 1973-1996. I'm not sure when takeout on exotics shot up, but they certainly did.

One huge change happened the year Woodbine hosted the Breeders' Cup in 1996, the Ontario government dropped their cut on bets from 7% to only 1/2%. But takeout only dropped a bit on WPS that year. The takeout back then was 15.2% on WPS, 26.7% on exactors and doubles, and 28.7% on triactors and the Win 4. The federal tax was up to .8% from .5% in 1973 (today, the combined tax the government retains is still 1.3%).

In 1998, I notice that WPS was up to 16.2%, while other bets remained the same.

Woodbine got slots in 1999, but there was no immediate relief for the Horseplayer. Even with a cut from the government and slots, Woodbine (and Fort Erie for that matter) didn't even try to cultivate its horse racing customer.

I have some data on Fort Erie from 1999. 17.2% on WPS, 28.7% on triactors, and 26.7% on doubles and exactors.

Somewhere between 2000 and 2001, Woodbine finally made a significant move and dropped takeout in exactors and doubles to 20.5%. Fort Erie never followed suit.
WPS was up to 16.95%, triactors were 28.3%, and all other bets were 26.3% at Woodbine.

The only other changes that have happened at Woodbine since 2001 was a short experiment in reducing the Win 4 to 15% for a couple of years. It was raised back up to 25% on the hush. Just over a year ago, Woodbine reduced takeout on triactors from 28.3% to 27%.

Fort Erie hasn't changed much since 1999. WPS is now 16.95%, while triactors are 28.2% and all other bets are 26.2%. And they wonder why they can't grow their business?

Some other takeout rates from 1999. Aqueduct: WPS 15%, Tris/P3s/P6/Supers 25%, all other bets 20%. Gulfstream Park: WPS 15%, DD Ex 20%, All other bets 25%. Keeneland 16% on all bets. California A tracks had takeouts stay the same except they raised 1/2% in 2004 on exotics, and recently apparently just blew themselves out of the water by raising takeouts on exotics 2-3% at the beginning of this year.

For an up to date chart on track takeout click here.


Speaking of California, predictably Santa Anita is looking to rescind the takeout hike racing dates in March by eliminating Wednesdays.  What happened to promise of bigger fields thanks to the hike in purses from the extra money coming in from the takeout hike?  Well lets see, handle is down, field size is down (despite cutting to 4 days this year in January and February (though they had a few rain outs last year), and most importantly, the racetrack is losing a lot of money each day they run in comparison to last year.

Personally, I get as much of a rush these days looking at the end of the day handle from Santa Anita and Golden Gate while comparing it to last year's handle, as I did betting their product (I stopped the day the bill was signed by The Terminator to raise takeout).   Maybe David Israel is right,  horse racing is entertainment (at least when you aren't betting on it).

Lately, especially since the impact of the Mid Atlantic Co Op can be seen (last year, Santa Anita wasn't on their menu until January 22), handle at Santa Anita is consistently down every day anywhere between half a million and close to $3 million (last Saturday).

Meanwhile handle from Tampa Bay has been amazing.  Management there should send the TOC and CHRB a huge thank you letter.  For example, on Saturday, they did over $8.2 million in handle compared to last year for the same Saturday and same amount of races when they did $6.7 million.  I don't think Woodbine does anything close to $8 million on their biggest days.  


Andy Beyer has a new article out about Microbets.  The two pluses when it comes to making fractional wagers on supers, etc. are that it allows smaller players to participate better when it comes to chasing big payoffs, and most importantly is the tax advantage (a lot less winning bets are subject to withholding tax which takes money out the system that could be churned back). 

Canadians don't have to worry about withholding taxes, thankfully, but it is no reason to have such high track takeouts.  

I especially like Beyer's line..."Gulfstream promoted the Pick Five by offering it with a takeout of 15 percent (compared to the extortionate 26 percent it takes from trifectas and superfectas."

One negative when it comes to microbets is that they entice Horseplayers to usually higher takeout bets. Some the same money that used to be churned at lower rates in WPS or exactor bets (which usually have lower takeouts) is now being directed to superfectas which typically have higher takeout rates. This generally moves up the blended takeout rate that Horseplayers now have to overcome, which at the end of the day, makes a bettor go broke quicker than before.

The other negative is that Americans betting through and American based bet taker cannot play microbets offered in Canada, and visa versa. With the Canadian dollar and US dollar close to par, this rule needs to be dealt with. It really gives the local Horseplayer an unfair advantage, especially when allocating dollar wagers on possible pool shot combos or split pool shots that can be had for 10 or 20 cents.

For example, Woodbine offers 20 cent supers and Pick 4's, but Americans have to play them with a $1 minimum and Canadians betting through HPI or at Canadian tracks or simulcast centers can't make microbets on US tracks.

This includes the Gulfstream Park new Pick 6, which Beyer calls a suckers bet. I think Beyer is missing the point in that this bet can draw fringe Horseplayers to bet on a card they wouldn't normally bet, and more importantly possibly entice slots and lottery players to cross over to the "dark side."

Any hoot, it looks like Andy Beyer has officially coined the term microbet. I like it because I was very uncomfortable using the term "fractional wagers."


28 December 2010

California Horse Racing: It Is Only Going To Get Worse

Did any brainiac ever think that the reason California A tracks have such great handle is because they have one of the lowest takeouts in North America? I don't think anyone who voted for the takeout hike that begins January 1 gave it any consideration.

The winter meet began at Santa Anita on Sunday. Optimism was all over the place. I listened to a segment on the Steve Byk radio show and you would think that the move back to the dirt was more significant than if man were to land on Mars. BTW, don't waste your time listening to Byk, I find him to be a nauseating anti-horseplayer cheerleader for tracks and horsemen groups. Roger Stein, on the other hand is well worth listening to each week. He gets it. Byk doesn't.

With all this anticipation and exuberance, handle must have gone through the roof on Sunday. It didn't, far from it. All source handle was off over 21% from the previous year. Granted there were weather issues on the East Coast, and they did have an extra race the year before. However, in 2009, Santa Anita signal wasn't being picked up by the Mid Atlantic Co-Op. That cost Santa Anita anywhere between 5-10% in handle last year. Handle was back to 1992 levels, and that doesn't even take into account inflation.

Things were a little better yesterday. Handle was only off 2%. But they ran an extra race yesterday compared to the corresponding first Monday of the meet last year.

So who exactly was demanding a move back to the dirt? The horsemen and a few existing Horseplayers.

Existing Horseplayers will look for all sorts of excuses as to why they lose money. 99% of them lose. Artificial surfaces in California was just one more scapegoat for some existing Horseplayers. Bottom line, the movement back to dirt didn't create any new Horseplayers. At best it could shift betting money from one track back to California.

Excuses from Horseplayers stem from them losing money or not winning enough on the day. Sure, they are valid, but in the end, the overwhelming majority of Horseplayers will lose. What matters is how long they last. The longer they last, the more likely they are to expose others to the game, the quicker they lose, the more excuses they will make, the more negative they will be, and the less likely they are to expose others to the game.

Sidetracking a bit. My father was a $2 bettor his whole life. Almost never missed a day betting. He used to make $500 to a couple of thousand almost every year. But I remember him going bad for about 3 years (breaking even or losing a bit on the year). He started blaming the cat. "Since I got this cat, I can't win anymore. The cat is a jinx. She is looking at me right now with her evil eyes." Cats or polytrack. If a Horseplayer starts to lose faster, they look for excuses.

Back to California. The timing was bad for this switch as it comes just a few days before takeout is hiked on all exotic bets in California. This has caused talk of a Player's Boycott.

Horseplayers who 1) Understand that takeout is the barrier between winning and losing and/or 2) Care about the future of horse racing, have already stopped playing California tracks. Many more are expected to stop or slow down once the boycott is officially called.

Even without a boycott, handle is going to go down the tubes in California. There is going to be less value on most combinations once takeout rates go up 9-14%. Price sensitive players who still believe they can make money will bet less, and in the meantime, the dummy money will lose quicker and some of it will disappear creating less value.

In the end. No Horseplayer will have a chance at beating California in the long run (not that very many are today).

Let me explain why this is a 9-14% increase in takeout and not a 2-3% hike that those not in the know are preaching:

Takeout is increasing on exactors and doubles from 20.68% to 22.68%. So if $100,000 is bet in a double pool, the track is now takeout $22,680 instead of $20,680 which represents an increase to the track of 9.7%.

Now lets look at it from the bettor's long term perspective. If the bettor makes $100,000 in double bets over a period of time, the bettor has to overcome $22,680 being taken out as opposed to $20,680. That means they are expected to lose collectively close to 10% more than they lost previously. That is if handle remains the same. It won't because that extra 10% lost will do a lot of wear and tear on the existing Horseplayer's bankroll.

It is is greater on other exotics which shoot up from 20.68% to 23.68%.

If you still don't get it. Lets say you have a $100,000 line of credit and you are paying interest only. If interest rates go up from 3% to 4%, you are not paying an extra 1% per year, but an extra 33%, as your yearly payments just rose from $3,000 to $4,000.

Personally, since Los Alamitos rose takeout early last year, I bet one card there. I felt very dirty afterward even though I broke around even. I won't do it again. And I'm not about to feel dirty by betting on any California thoroughbred track until California does the right thing and the takeout is at least rescinded.

I'm not alone here. There are a lot of pissed off players who are passionate about the game willing to treat California racing as "entertainment only."

I don't bet on Family Guy, Dexter, Two and a Half Men, and now California racing. I only watch them for entertainment purposes only. I have to tell you though, California racing gives me the least entertainment value of these four "shows" by a very good margin.

I'll watch Tampa Bay, Hawthorne, etc. for gambling purposes. Oh, and I bet as much as I did when I was playing California. It just goes to other tracks.

Oh, and blaming the weather on Sunday?

Turf Paradise a year ago last Sunday: $1,212,049
Last Sunday: $1,552,112

Hawthorne a year ago last Sunday: $2,297,748 (10 races)
Last Sunday: $2,311,654 (9 races)

Both tracks started just a half hour earlier than Santa Anita.

Even Golden Gate was up a little. Apparently, HANA forgot to tell its members that Golden Gate is in California:) Actually, the Boycott still hasn't been called yet, and the takeout hike doesn't happen until January 1st. All I can say is look out below.

I'm sure the handle numbers from the first day are helping those horsemen on the fence who were thinking about sending a few horses to California, make up their mind.

Field size looks like it will remain on the weak side in California, and there just won't be any value in the majority of races thanks to the hike.


VOTE HERE FOR THE THOROUGHBRED BLOGGER'S ALLIANCE PHOTO CONTEST


Canadian Horseplayers Advocacy Group founder Eric Poteck now has a regular article up at Down The Stretch Newspaper Online. In the current issue he tackles the integrity issue of promoting fictitious payoff prices. For example, when there is only $35,000 available in a superfecta pool at Woodbine, and someone has the pool for 20 cents. The price promoted is $175,000 (which is the dollar price). It is blatant false advertising.

In a related topic. Does anyone proof read the HPI Quarterly?

Though the WEG Pick 4 has a 21.7 per cent takeout, Martin (Jamie) said the track now honours lower takeout rates for other tracks’ Pick 4 wagers, some as low as 15 per cent.

“So, we’ve made it attractive for people not only to play our own, but to play all the other ones,” Martin said.

“I think it’s a good bet,” Hamilton said. “It’s better than the high-percentage takeout we have with superfectas (23 per cent),...”

*********************************************
Note to editor: Takeout on superfectas at Woodbine is 26.3% and it is 25% on Pick 4's. The 2% that is tacked on for the Horsemen, and the 1.3% to the government on each wager is still part of the takeout.

Note to Dave Briggs: For future articles involving takeout, please refer to this chart.

Note to Jamie Martin: How about honouring all lower takeout rates, including triactors and superfectas as well? Woodbine has no right to partner themselves with winning bets made by their customers.


In 1968, horse racing in Toronto was in its glory days. People were in the stands, and they came back for more because takeout was lower and you could only bet WPS on most races. Bankrolls lasted. There were even some known winners. The public was addicted. Great stories from that time. Here is one. Just remember, this story is not supposed to endorse the concept of hidden ownership. It was hip in the 60's. It can be costly today.

10 December 2010

Hidden Message In Woodbine Duck Video

In case you haven't seen this yet, a video of a duck and her ducklings at Woodbine during a high wind. Over 4 million hits. When was the last time a horse racing website got 4 million hits? Well here it is:

Funny, yes, but I see something more in this video. Something symbolic. The mother duck took newbies to the track, and they got blown out by Woodbine's high takeouts. They were unable to last very long, and they are likely not to return to Woodbine again. There is a computer term called Baby Duck Syndrome. It has to do with imprinting. Baby ducks bond with the first moving thing they see. It doesn't have to be a parent. In computer land it has to do with newbies having a tendency to stick with the keyboard, software programs, etc. that they were first exposed to.

Now in psychology, it has to do with keeping up with the status quo, and not trying different things. Hmmmm, sounds like what has plagued horse racing for years and years, especially when it comes to pricing the product and appeasing Horsepeople instead of Horseplayers.

Now back to the ducks on the video. Reports are that they haven't given up altogether (they liked betting). They are heading to Tampa Bay Downs. Tampa Bay, which opens up their 2010-2011 season tomorrow, has reduced takeout once again. They have dropped takeout on Pick 3's, 4's, the Pick 6, and their High Five to 18%.

The ducks are also going to take a gander at Hialeah, which has a 12% track takeout on all bets. They don't really understand quarter horse racing, but they are willing bet a few bills at a lower takeout venue after their not so pleasant experience at Woodbine.

The ducks have been educating themselves on the internet since their first exposure to horse racing, and they've decided to boycott California racing due to the upcoming takeout hike which comes into effect on December 26th. I wonder if it was the ducks who started this rumor that has shown up on Youtube:

H/T Andy Mays at Pace Advantage

I can't finish this post without applauding Woodbine (sort of) for bucking the industry trend and increasing handle. The fact handle dropped a little domestically was very predictable, because of their high takeouts and their continued practice of underpaying Horseplayers on many exotic wagers (they chase domestic Horseplayers away and have an impossible time creating new ones, as new Horseplayers will only get involved significantly if there are visible long term winners).

Pull The Pocket points out what Woodbine did right. It started out with David Willmot getting out of the way.

By the way, Willmot had a successful year this year as a quasi-lawyer. His presence and testimony was tantamount in winning the Fifty Proof case this year ("the gate was in working order, eh"). Of course, in order for him to have a future in law, he'll need to seek out more Kangaroo Courts.


On a sad note, Fort Erie trainer Billy Lane passed away after a long courageous fight with cancer. My condolences go out to his family and friends. He was a great guy.