Bettors Want Bigger Fields Over Higher Quality Fields

Cool poll over at Pace Advantage: Which would you rather bet on? High quality horses in races with short fields or low quality horses in races with full fields?

At the time of this posting, over 88% of voters chose full fields. I'm not surprised full fields is preferred, but the margin is a bit of a shock.

Takeout and track surface are also factored in big time by bettors, and that explains why Woodbine, with their big fields, fails to attract significant betting.

Looking at Woodbine's recent pathetic handles I have to wonder if they just need to go back to the drawing board and start over. With the fabulous purse structure they have, the near monopoly on horse race gambling they have in Canada as well, it is inexcusable to have handle numbers that range between $1.2-$1.6 million on Wednesday's and Thursdays. Even $2.5 million on Saturdays isn't anything to brag about either when compared to A tracks like Keeneland.

If not for slots, Woodbine would have been bankrupt a long time ago. Their leadership needs to go. They have killed a great game.

What good do $1 million dollar races at Woodbine do? They do have a couple of $5 million handle days thanks to them, but when you analyze things, they actually lose money on those days.

Are those days good for the Canadian economy? Not really. Most of the purse monies are grabbed by non Canadian outfits shipping in horses and the money leaves the country.

Does it help the Canadian/Ontario breeding industry? Nope. The horses that end up with the big money rarely have an ounce of Canadian blood in them.

How about creating more bettors? There is absolutely no evidence that new bettors have been created. Since Willmot took the reigns, very few new bettors have been created in Ontario. In fact, many older bettors have either died or took their business elsewhere. And if one looks at the handle numbers right before or after the big races, there is no apparent change when it comes to creating new business.

Besides drastically lowering takeout, Woodbine would be best advised to knock it off with the extraordinarily high purse paid out in their biggest races, and use their resources to attract and sustain Canadian outfits. Woodbine gives out too much to allowance runners as well (5 horse fields running for $100,000 purses aren't worth it as they attract little to no betting).

Woodbine should give out more money to lower end claimers, allowing new local owners/partnerships (Ontarians) a shot to make money and build a stable. Inevitably, these new owners will come to the track more, expose more friends and family to horse racing (taking them out to the track when their horses run). They will also be more inclined to buy yearlings (thus helping the local breeding industry). Like bettors, owners are more apt to play a lot longer the more money they receive each time they are victorious.


Delaware Bucks Downward Trend In Racing
Delaware ran 27 less days this year, but their total handle (not daily, total) was up.

See what happens when you allow your signal to be available to everyone, make your video available to everyone, and have half decent field sizes (close to 8 horses a race average), and have slightly lower than average track takeouts (19% on doubles and exactors). See also, Pull The Pocket: Less Races, More Betting

Speaking about those who don't give out their signal to everyone and also withhold their video, where are Belmont's final numbers? My guess is the that the boys at NYRA are scurrying around looking for viable excuses so they have a shot at keeping their jobs.



Fort Erie handle drops on par with the industry drop in 2009

Fort Erie handle dropped around 10% this year. Field size was up from last year to 8.2 horses a race from 7.7 a race last year. They gave out 5% less in purse distribution in 2009.
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There was no mention regarding whether they ran significantly less races in 2009. I do remember quite a few 10 race cards last year on Mondays and Tuesdays, and I'm inclined to think that the 5% drop in purse distribution is in line with 5% less races.
This would account for some of the drop off.

Fort Erie is very good about distributing their signal to all tracks and ADWs, so exposure isn't the issue. And players like races that have bigger field over quality, so that definitely isn't the issue.

The biggest factor could be public awareness of takeout. Thanks to HANA and blogs like mine, the public is becoming more and more educated as to why they aren't lasting long when they play the ponies.

Fort Erie, like Woodbine have ridiculously high takeout rates. See the HANA takeout chart here (it is not 100% up to date, but it is close). Fort Erie, has the highest takeout rate in North America for exactors and doubles. It is 26.2%. Besides educated players avoiding the track because of this, rates like this kill off people who don't even have a clue about takeout. When you send players home with less money, they are less likely to come back anytime soon.

Slot operators generally payout around 92%. In Ontario, slot operators are allowed to payout between 85-98%. They generally payout around 90-92%. Why not 85%? Because, slot operators have historically found that anything over 90% has a negative impact on future slot earnings. Players don't last long enough to make their experience enjoyable enough. They go less, and when they go less, they are less likely to bring friends or family along the odd night, possibly creating a new slots customer.

Here is a pretty current slot payback chart by state.


If Fort Erie doesn't open next year, the Welfare Offices could be getting a lot of extra business.
There is no doubt that Fort Erie's closure would have a tremendous negative impact in Fort Erie and its surrounding area. The more I think about it, Ajax Downs can't be the solution when it comes to where B horses will race next year. Without a backstretch, it would be just too impractical. Costs to ship to race or workout, coupled with the cost to train a horse off a farm (which also makes it difficult to get a horse to 100% race fit, and gives Woodbine shippers a insurmountable edge), will probably cause many owners to leave the game.

GOVERNMENT BAILED OUT FORT ERIE 17 YEARS AGO: PRECEDENT HAS BEEN SET

This isn't the first time, Fort Erie needed a government bail out. Back in the early 90's, the Ontario Jockey Club was making it known that Fort Erie was losing a couple of million a year. I happened to run across this yesterday: Ontario Jockey Club Study of the Impact of Casino Gambling on the Ontario Horse Racing industry
September 21,1992. It is important to note that back then, the government was making around 9% on every dollar bet (this has now been reduced to 1.3%, probably with this study in mind, as it was known in advance that slots would cannibalize horse racing).

On page 6 of the report:

In particular, smaller operations have been hit very
hard as shown by the plight of the 95-year old Fort Erie racetrack owned by the OJC. Fort Erie has been losing $2 million per year for the last five years.

The OJC was able to sustain these losses for a period of time as its other operations produced sufficient revenues to subsidize these losses.

They were forced into a position, however, to close the Fort Erie operation unless assistance was received from other participants.

An arrangement with the provincial government was reached at the end of July which is expected to provide the OJC with an additional $1.5 million by way of a tax rebate scheme.

It has recently been announced that smaller operations will receive a proportionately larger tax-rebate from the government in order to survive in the current recessionary environment.

If the government increases competition for these tracks by introducing new forms of gambling, it is likely that further government assistance will be required if significant track closures are to be avoided.

It was estimated by the OJC that closure of the Fort Erie track would have meant a loss of 4,500 jobs and a loss of payroll for the community of $38 million.

Bottom line, precedence has been set with respect to the government bailing out Fort Erie.


Fort Erie Trainer Gets A 9 Month Ban
Trainer Michael Osborne was caught by Woodbine security in the receiving barn with a loaded syringe. After analyzing the substance, the "liquid in the syringe to be n-butanol and ethanol both alcohol, a Class 2 medication."

This brings up at least a couple of concerns. I doubt that this mixture shows up on a test, yet it a Class 2 medication, so why don't they test for it?

I'm always of the mindset that when someone gets nailed like this, whether it is a trainer will an illegal substance or a drug dealer getting nailed by the RCMP, there are thousands of instances when the trainer or drug dealer is not caught. Some are never caught.

In my view, Osborne was just unlucky he got nailed. The odds were totally against him getting caught.

So this boils down to one key question: Are the penalties in place right now enough of a deterrent to stop the cheating?

My answer is NO. 9 months definitely will hurt anyone financially, but the time goes by pretty quickly. 3 years, would probably do the trick. I don't know if any trainer would risk that? Of course, if these drug violation were treated as they should be by the courts, and criminal charges were laid (defrauding the betting public), we might find a lot more honest trainers in the backstretch.

Trainers will adapt. But with so many trainers getting away with drug concoctions in the backstretch, even the honest ones need to compete to stay in business and they are tempted to cheat as well.

Give almost any trainer a blue pill, and tell them it won't test and you can expect an enhanced performance from the horse, and 99% of the trainers would be giving the horse the pill...at least that is how I see it.

EQUIBASE IMPROVES THINGS AGAIN FOR THE HORSEPLAYER
Equibase just unveiled a consolidated horse search. This allows anyone to type in the name of a race horse, and then view, for free, any of the race charts for that horse all the way back to 1999. Or you can view it 5X Pedigree for free as well. It also links to pay services as well. Simply go to the Equibase home page and you'll find the box that will get you going. You can also look up a broodmare's race record, and if she raced from 1999, see her actual charts race by race.

Equibase also recently did the horseplayer another great deed with a new and improved way for players to get up to the minute scratches, jockey changes, and surface changes. Every player needs to bookmark this page. It is an excellent resource.

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Real Time Scratches And Changes Now Available Thanks To HANA And Equibase

See What A Collective Voice For Horseplayers Can Accomplish

One of the biggest complaints from horseplayers over the last few years has been not knowing if a race is still on the turf or if the race was taken off. Track conditions, late changes and even part of the entry changes has also been a source of contention, especially to online bettors.

Thanks to a meeting in the spring between HANA and Equibase, this particular gripe is now a thing of the past.

Leaving it to racing execs who should have known about this problem for years, did nothing for the horseplayer. Simply, racing execs are out of touch with horseplayers.

Here is the release courtesy of Equibase:

Current day scratches and program changes from racetracks throughout North America are now available throughout the day in a dedicated section of equibase.com, it was announced Oct. 1 by Equibase Company president and COO Hank Zeitlin.

Equibase developed the new service in conjunction with racetracks and with feedback from the Horseplayers Association of North America. Besides having access to the latest scratches, horseplayers can now obtain other critical updates such as when a race has been moved from turf to dirt, distance changes, jockey changes, and amended wagering options on equibase.com. They can also register to receive an RSS feed for each track they are playing, enabling instant delivery of information to desktops and mobile devices.

These scratches and program changes are updated live from the racetrack via eBase®, Equibase’s proprietary Internet-based data collection system. Designated personnel at the live track can now use eBase to enter the day’s scratches and program changes until one hour before post time for the first race, at which time Equibase chartcallers assume responsibility for entering subsequent changes.

“During the Keeneland spring meet where we held our first HANA Day at the Races, Equibase and members of HANA met for a productive meeting at their office,” said HANA President Jeff Platt. “We are very pleased that as a result of that beginning and subsequent discussions, horseplayers will now have access to a centralized, accurate resource for reporting of late-breaking changes.”

“Making it easier for horseplayers to acquire pertinent information such as scratches and program changes is simply good business and the tracks are happy to participate in this new arrangement,” said Chris Scherf, executive vice president of the Thoroughbred Racing Associations of North America.

The “Today’s Scratches & Program Changes” webpage was deployed Sept. 29 and is accessible via a link on the equibase.com homepage. The current day scratches and program changes are also available for electronic retrieval, which enables value-added resellers, tracks, and other industry organizations to provide timely changes and scratches to their respective customers.
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Prior to HANA forming just over a year ago, horseplayer gripes and ideas usually fell on deaf ears. Things are changing. There is a lot happening behind the scenes. Being a board member, I'm involved in a weekly conference call, where we tackle many issues and devise strategies to tackle current issues.

We've done more than can be seen by the naked eye, and recently, some tracks have actually approached us for our ideas in an effort by them to grow their product.

Our main goal is the same as most racing exec or horsemen group. It is to grow the game and attract more betting and bettors. Except we know how to do it. Racing execs and horsemen groups have their collective heads in the sand when it comes to this issue. They just don't understand that horse racing is gambling first, without the horseplayer there is nothing. Our ideas go against "their conventional wisdom," which by the way is failing miserably of late. It isn't the 1950's anymore.

HANA still needs bigger numbers in membership to make more things like this happen. If you are not a member yet, please click here, and sign up (it is free). The more horseplayers we have as members, the more clout we have.


A couple of new threads have been started at Pace Advantage worth looking at. Hopefully, they'll be more additions to each.

Quotes and Comments That Make Sense

"Horseracing is still marketed as if it has a monopoly on legal gambling,
where the need for a cohesive voice and long term strategic planning was not
required to be successful. A racetrack would be built and people would come
and bet!

The industry has generally been run by Horsemen who have viewed wagering as a necessary evil. They have little understanding of the gambling component
and thus little understanding for their current and potential customers. In
some cases racetrack board members are prohibited from wagering.
Those who remain in the Horseplayer choir believe that horserace wagering
offers unique components that make it the most exciting, exhilarating and
challenging form of gambling. The industry will continue to decline until
racetrack operators can identify and embrace their customer, the
HORSEPLAYER, and conclude that Horseracing must be marketed as a 'GAME
ABOUT GAMBLING' and not a Sport of Kings!

Horseracing’s Day of Atonement is long overdue....."

- Eric Poteck

"Horseracing needn't look any further than the internet where online poker has taken young adults from all over the world by storm.

What, might you ask, does poker have over horseracing? Certainly not excitement (grinding poker can be quite boring). Certainly not intellectual challenge (although poker is quite close!). And certainly not the chance to make a quick score (to make a quick score (1K+), you might have play for HOURS online in a single tourney).

Nope, none of the above! What horseracing lacks is at the heart of fundamental economics: THE LACK OF A PERCEPTION THAT IT IS PROFITABLE!

Why do the young kids play poker? Because they perceive that if they work hard enough at it, they will eventually become +EV long term. NO SUCH NOTION exists with horse racing.

Consider that you can find online training sites for poker ad nauseum. Just do a quick Google (or in deference to your contributor, a Yahoo! search) for "online poker training" and you will find some outstanding training sites for relatively little money that can have you near-profitable in a couple of months of hard study. NOTHING like this exists for horseracing; instead all you get is people peddling lousy tips, speed figures, and for the most part, useless or superfluous information.

In addition, you can go to NUMEROUS sites online that list DOZENS of winning "poker pros" whose results are documented and posted. I challenge you to find and list FIVE "horseracing" pros that are profitable and whose names are public. Oh, these five may exist, but no one knows of them, and more importantly, because no one knows of them, they cannot help the sport attract what it needs: interest from young people that think or believe they can beat the game in the long run.

The solution to racing's woes is obvious: make people believe that they can win money long term by betting horses. NOTHING MORE and NOTHING LESS. If this was done, the issues of admission, the cost of a DRF, the odds changing after the bell, the drugs, the "super-trainers", field size, and all other "issues" would magically disappear. Easier said than done,isn't it?

And with that, sir, I proclaim the eventual slow death of racing as the cancer of takeout metastasizes and brings it to its Hospice in the caverns of Belmont, Hollywood Park, and Churchill Downs.

Good luck at the windows and thank you for your time."

-Quarter Pole (comment on a HANA piece)

"I can tell you the first time I played off shore and received a rebate, it was like night and day. All of a sudden, my small bankroll seemed to last longer.

No other business treats it’s customers with such contempt, than that of horseracing. It is really actually quite sickening. Horsemen and people within the industry need to give their collective heads a shake, and understand who puts food on their tables...... So, keep takeout stagnant, or better yet even increase them, it will be your own demise. I’m a gambler, I’ll bet on other things. What are you going to do, train gophers? Own show hogs?"

-Bullring

"Mr. Pope’s opinions epitomize thoroughbred racing’s perspective: When times get tough the boys at the top sit around figuring out ways of charging the customer more money for less product.

In an age when the main concern should be finding ways to cost-effectively GIVE the customer more for his money they are simply concerned with finding more ways to TAKE. The picture that comes to mind is jackals and hyenas looking down on an ever-dwindling herd of wildebeast. What happens when the heard is gone, boys?"

-David Schwartz

And there are quotes from those who are clueless. Here is the first entry:

"Cangamble, people like you should probably stick to the little league that is Canadian racing. Clearly you just don’t know what you’re talking about nor do you have any clue what would work in big league racing.

So why not head on back to the home of the Queen’s Plate (or the Canadian-bred, non-winners-of-2, if you can’t tell the difference) and let real people discuss the complexities that actually matter and relate to horse racing on a major circuit.

Most of the “words you’ve posted” either do not make sense or are not applicable whatsoever to horse racing of a significant nature.

With lesser-thans such as yourself continuing to spout your idiocy, the game of horse racing (even in little league status, such as that which you follow) simply cannot and will not “grow” (as you imply you would like) because the numbskulls quite clearly will not get out of their own way.

That makes you a walking, talking, oxymoron, who is no more significant than the next internet troll (another definition into which you clearly fit, based on your brainless expressions at this and every other racing blog you can get your browser on).

Finally, this is in no way “my problem”, for you are the only one here who constantly crows about the take-out. Obviously nobody who is active in horse racing pools really cares about take-out, as at its core, mutuel take-out on American horse racing has been quite steady since the 1970’s.

Furthermore, anyone cognizant of the WPS take-out of roughly 16% being too high in the 1970’s, now has many, many more multi-race options on which the effective take-out is much, much lower.

Why can’t you get it through your head that the take-out is much less significant today than it was in the 1970’s?

Cangamble, why don’t you make it your next mission to try to find a thoroughbred track in Quebec? Maybe that is one significant difference between life in your minor-league world today vs. what you knew in the 1970’s.

And stay out of the major leagues, Cangamble, for obviously the big show is no place for neophytes."

-Horatio

Well at least I know it wasn't from David Willmot, only because I doubt Willmot would knock Canadian racing in public like that, even hiding behind a pseudonym:)

Speaking of Woodbine. They are now guaranteeing a $50,000 pool in their first Pick 4, which starts in the fourth race on Saturdays and Sundays until the end of the meet. I checked and found that they had $50,000 plus pools in each of at least the last six weekend cards anyway, so this is pretty much guaranteeing that it will be dark outside at midnight.

Note to Woodbine and Fort Erie: How about a 15% Pick 3 every race? Give it a shot.

I can pretty much guarantee that Woodbine would have done better than the $1.3 million in handle they did today (Thursday) if they decided to do something that was really horseplayer friendly.


Speaking of horseplayer friendly. HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM just added Oak Tree at Santa Anita to the betting menu.
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Fort Erie announcer Peter Kyte just took the Western Fair job in London, Ontario.
He didn't announce at the Fort on Tuesday because he had a baby due. Not sure if this means he won't be the Fort Erie announcer next year IF the track does defy the odds and remain open.

New Whipping Rules In Ontario May Alter Handicapping A Little

New Whipping Rules Coming To Ontario September 1st

"Whips will have to be be cushioned, be no more than 30 inches in length, and have a padded noise-making "popper."......................... Use of a non-approved whip will lead to the disqualification of the horse..................a horse cannot be hit with the whip more than three times in a row without being given time to respond, and the whip is not to be used when a horse is not visibly responding or is not in contention for a meaningful position."
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This appears to have major implications when handicapping horses who were not in contention. Speed figure players may need to add a few lengths to horses well beaten, or discard the race entirely because the riders will now wrap up on them early. Some jockeys do this already, but it might be more of a factor now.



Frank Stronach Could Be In Deep Doo Doo

The Magna creditors are claiming: "MI Developments prevented Magna Entertainment from selling assets that might have allowed it to successfully restructure." And the intent was apparently sinister on Stronach's behalf. He purposely put Magna into the bankruptcy position in order to benefit himself by doing many "sham" transactions.

If these allegations are proven, I can see possible jail time being pursued as well. The Madoff scandal has put market regulators on high alert, and they don't mind taking the odd big guy down.



Jockey Norberto Arroyo charged with possession with the intent to sell cocaine
Arroya is currently 2 for 56 at Saratoga. The purses are good, and his mounts have earned over $166k; no reason for him to have a second job.



Baymount Enters Into Letter Of Intent On The New Quinte Track

The new proposed partner is a subsidiary of the Kilmer Group which has a significant ownership stake in the Toronto Maple Leafs and Toronto Raptors.



Nick Gonzalez is hotter than a Playboy centerfold on the planet Mercury. Six consecutive winners at Fort Erie including a natural hat trick yesterday as he won the 4th, 5th and 6th. I picked all three as first choices, so I will leave speculation that Gonzalez is using some special concoction to jealous horsemen and maybe the ORC.



Ray Paulick Vents Against Equibase
One of HANA's issues is free information for bettors. I'm don't want to solely blame Equibase though. This is an industry problem and it illustrates just how dysfunctional and anti-player the industry is and always has been. Equibase should be subsidized by the racetracks in a way that the information becomes free. Everything from lifetime charts to daily past performances to breeding records. Free info will only attract more players and owners, etc., and this might just result in growth.

Paulick makes a great point comparing the free information available for every other sport out there. You can get just about any player stat for free by doing just a quick web search or go to sites like NBA.com or NFL.com, etc.

Just a quick note. Equibase does give out some good free info. I go there every day when I do my daily charting of the tracks that I do track variants for.



Bill Finley Says That Lagging Odds Are Unacceptable

He is preaching to the choir.

"As long as the odds continue to change during races, people have a right to be suspicious....close when the first horse is loaded into the gate. It usually takes upward of a minute to load an entire field, normally enough time for every bet made everywhere to funnel its way into the system.....Horseplayers aren't stupid. They will quickly figure out that they have to get their bets in in time and will adjust accordingly."