Maybe I'm just stupid, but it appears to me that in OHRIA's recent proposal, Plan For The Future, that in lieu of losing $165 Million a year in slot revenues that went towards purses and breeding, they want funds to be set up by the government (an actual subsidy) totalling $210 Million a year, while being alright with cutting race dates and racetracks. Um OK, I must be idiotic in believing that the government will laugh their heads off at this proposal, though they'll like the cutting of race dates and tracks...less gambling competition is cool with the Ontario Liberal Party.
Maybe I'm just stupid, but in OHRIA's recent proposal they seem to be content with the end of Fort Erie. To stupid me, if OHRIA is conceding that racing can exist without Fort Erie, it makes it next to impossible to make a case to the government that Fort Erie Race Track should exist after this year.
Maybe I'm just stupid, but OHRIA seems to believe that Woodbine can race B horses. Sure, they can write $5,000 claiming races, but at a rate of $80 day pay, which owners are going to stick around to fill those races with their horses? There is a very good chance that if Woodbine is the only thoroughbred track running next year, owners of horses who run for less than $12,500 or who can't handle polytrack will send their horses away to Finger Lakes or Ohio. Some may run for the Woodbine owners there, but many will be sold for next to nothing. Once, this happens to an owner once or twice, it will take the fun out of the game, as well as taking away much of the chance that the owner can make money in the game. I know this might sound stupid but owners will dry up very quickly, leaving only wealthy trainers and owners with more money than brains to race. Maybe I'm just stupid, but I would think that OHRIA would understand the economic necessity of having a B racetrack in Ontario.
Maybe I'm just stupid, but Tim Hudak's attempt to appeal to the horse racing community and its supporters, to make sure that the Ontario Liberals don't wind up with a majority government by winning the upcoming Kitchener-Waterloo election, sounds almost pointless. The Liberals didn't need a majority government to end the Slots At Racetracks program. How will a Liberal defeat in Kitchener help horse racing in Ontario?
Maybe I'm just stupid, but the Minister of Agriculture, Ted McMeekin, comes across like a pompous A-hole when he says, “Simply put, the model that is currently in operation and is scheduled to end March 2013 is not viable, is not sustainable.” Is EHealth, ORNGE, moving the Mississauga Power Plant, or full day kindergarten sustainable? Sustainable? The SAR program was a partnership, and it is not going to mean much more money, if any, to the government bottom line, once the new operators (mostly foreign owned conglomerates most likely) take their cut of the slots profits.
Maybe I'm just stupid, but whenever I read that Bingo Halls are going to get a better deal than racetracks did because they are only going to give the government 47% of gross gaming revenues (before expenses to the Bingo Hall), while the government received 75% of slot revenues from Racinos (before expenses to the government), I either believe that the writer either doesn't understand Business 101 or is being totally disingenuous. That being stated, I know I'm stupid for even thinking that Bingo Hall owner Larry Tanenbaum is getting preferential treatment for being a Liberal Government Crony.
Maybe I'm just stupid, but I really like the idea that Finance Minister Dwight Duncan got ambushed by Marty Adler:
What bothers me is when Duncan stated that the number of jobs affected by the end of the SAR program is "not 60,000," Adler didn't come back asking "well then how many jobs will be affected?" Truth is that Duncan has no idea, and that, to a stupid person like me, shows that the decision to end the slots at racetrack program was done without the proper due diligence.
Showing posts with label Ontario Liberal Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ontario Liberal Party. Show all posts
29 July 2012
23 July 2012
How OLG Slots At Racetracks Termination Will Affect Many
Here is a video by Joe Scully, a rodeo MC, shot at Fort Erie Race Track:
Many good points are made. This move has economic disaster written all over it. Slots are racetracks partnerships is a winning deal for jobs and the province. It is a program that the USA is following, even where casinos are being allowed for the very first time. Ending the program will have long enduring sweeping consequences.
One thing Scully is wrong about is that there will still be revenues for the municipalities (perhaps not as much), but some will lose them altogether, and some will start seeing them for the first time.
Finally there is some noise about Public Cost Benefit Analysis. This should have been an issue before the budget was voted on, especially after Dwight Duncan doubted the 60,000 jobs number. The fact he doesn't know if it is 10,000, 20,000, or 60,000 proves that this decision was done without due diligence.
I don't know about you, but I've never cared much about Ontario politics. I think Ontario politicians rely on voter apathy. Being a social liberal who believes in separation of church and state, I took a stance a few years ago against John Tory because he wanted to fund religious schools, but other than that I really didn't give a rats butt about politics. Now, I'm becoming fascinated by it, and the more I learn, the more I've become disgusted by the Liberal Party of Ontario. They seem to take deception to brand new levels.
I believe that their ending of slots at racetracks program will kill the party in the future. They won't be able to overcome losing many voters for life. Politicians like Kim Craitor are done if Fort Erie does close. He couldn't even get Fort Erie a gaming zone. If I were him, I'd cross the floor ASAP.
The Liberals aren't only to blame for this. They only have a minority government, Tim Hudak has not come out and stated what he would have done, or what can be done to rectify things, and the issue wasn't important enough to Andrea Horwath to either vote against the budget or demand a Cost Benefit study first.
I really don't know what is going to happen in the end here, but I'm not very optimistic, despite the 3 man committee, the Ontario Ombudsman and the work of Dennis Mills (Racing Future). I can't see the corrupt Ontario Liberal government bending, but I hope I'm wrong.
On Twitter check out @racing_future,
@Ont_Ombudsman, and @HonestDwight.
Many good points are made. This move has economic disaster written all over it. Slots are racetracks partnerships is a winning deal for jobs and the province. It is a program that the USA is following, even where casinos are being allowed for the very first time. Ending the program will have long enduring sweeping consequences.
One thing Scully is wrong about is that there will still be revenues for the municipalities (perhaps not as much), but some will lose them altogether, and some will start seeing them for the first time.
Finally there is some noise about Public Cost Benefit Analysis. This should have been an issue before the budget was voted on, especially after Dwight Duncan doubted the 60,000 jobs number. The fact he doesn't know if it is 10,000, 20,000, or 60,000 proves that this decision was done without due diligence.
I don't know about you, but I've never cared much about Ontario politics. I think Ontario politicians rely on voter apathy. Being a social liberal who believes in separation of church and state, I took a stance a few years ago against John Tory because he wanted to fund religious schools, but other than that I really didn't give a rats butt about politics. Now, I'm becoming fascinated by it, and the more I learn, the more I've become disgusted by the Liberal Party of Ontario. They seem to take deception to brand new levels.
I believe that their ending of slots at racetracks program will kill the party in the future. They won't be able to overcome losing many voters for life. Politicians like Kim Craitor are done if Fort Erie does close. He couldn't even get Fort Erie a gaming zone. If I were him, I'd cross the floor ASAP.
The Liberals aren't only to blame for this. They only have a minority government, Tim Hudak has not come out and stated what he would have done, or what can be done to rectify things, and the issue wasn't important enough to Andrea Horwath to either vote against the budget or demand a Cost Benefit study first.
I really don't know what is going to happen in the end here, but I'm not very optimistic, despite the 3 man committee, the Ontario Ombudsman and the work of Dennis Mills (Racing Future). I can't see the corrupt Ontario Liberal government bending, but I hope I'm wrong.
On Twitter check out @racing_future,
@Ont_Ombudsman, and @HonestDwight.
15 July 2012
The Last Prince Of Wales At Fort Erie?
There really is no optimism going on regarding a 2013 season at Fort Erie. However, I don't think there is anyone who believes that the fight to stay open is over either. In fact, the whole horse racing industry in Ontario still are clinging on hope that the decision to end the slots at racetrack program will be overturned. It isn't like the current clowns who are running Ontario into the ground haven't done about faces before (but usually for political gain only) Take the cancelled Mississauga power plant, which will cost Ontario tax payers over $180 million for example. That about face was all about saving Liberal Party of Ontario seats, the problem with the slots program is that even if the Liberal Party were to reverse the decision, they would not be able to gain any future votes out of it. They've lost many votes for life over the decision to end slots. I still believe that either way, there are going to be a lot more large embarrassment in store for the Liberal Party when the Ontario Ombudsman starts blowing the whistle.
Back to Fort Erie. The track was already on life support before the announcement to end slots was made. I believe the only hope for The Fort is if a new buyer comes along and without slots or other forms of gambling, the likelihood is very remote. It does have the possibility to become a training centre, but with the anti-horse racing minority government that is in place, there is a major possibility that too much harm will occur and a never go back situation may result.
At this time, I can't see the track being plowed down to rubble either. It costs money to do that, and upon losing its number one employer, Fort Erie industrial or residential land won't be sought after when it comes to new developments. So there is a possibility that Fort Erie will stand empty until the next election, when hopefully, the new government will come in and help reopen the joint.
Anyway, it is a shame that a minority government can come in and kill an industry. It is hard not to blame the other parties for allowing it to happen, but the reality is that neither cared enough to make it a worthwhile issue.
History time:
Did you know that 61 years ago, Fort Erie Racetrack was involved in a huge race fixing scandal? The majority of the jockey colony was either ruled off, suspended or fined. There was even a Lady In Black, a Mr. Fix It, and a Mr. Big Money. Sounds like movie material.
Interesting that back then a jockey, Robert Wankmueller, was arrested for defrauding the public. Imagine that? When did the rules change that defrauding the public by trainers now results in a $300 fine and/or a warning?
Handicapping Time:
I threw some mud against the wall this morning, in an attempt to find the Prince Of Wales winner. I like Dixie Strike. She came back nicely to run a decent troubled and wide third in the Queen's Plate. I think the switch from poly to will not bother her as much as some of the others in the field. My long shot contender is Ultimate Destiny, a horse who seems to be peaking. You can't discount the bottom horse either, Roger Attfield trained Colleen's Sailor. Corey Nakatani must have felt some potential in the Plate for him to take another plane ride and dust off his passport for the Prince of Wales. As for the probable favorite, Irish Mission, her breeding screams out grass and poly, she has also run quite a few good races in a row. Breeding and bounce factor and lack of betting value makes her a very good pitch this afternoon.
Back to Fort Erie. The track was already on life support before the announcement to end slots was made. I believe the only hope for The Fort is if a new buyer comes along and without slots or other forms of gambling, the likelihood is very remote. It does have the possibility to become a training centre, but with the anti-horse racing minority government that is in place, there is a major possibility that too much harm will occur and a never go back situation may result.
At this time, I can't see the track being plowed down to rubble either. It costs money to do that, and upon losing its number one employer, Fort Erie industrial or residential land won't be sought after when it comes to new developments. So there is a possibility that Fort Erie will stand empty until the next election, when hopefully, the new government will come in and help reopen the joint.
Anyway, it is a shame that a minority government can come in and kill an industry. It is hard not to blame the other parties for allowing it to happen, but the reality is that neither cared enough to make it a worthwhile issue.
History time:
Did you know that 61 years ago, Fort Erie Racetrack was involved in a huge race fixing scandal? The majority of the jockey colony was either ruled off, suspended or fined. There was even a Lady In Black, a Mr. Fix It, and a Mr. Big Money. Sounds like movie material.
Interesting that back then a jockey, Robert Wankmueller, was arrested for defrauding the public. Imagine that? When did the rules change that defrauding the public by trainers now results in a $300 fine and/or a warning?
Handicapping Time:
I threw some mud against the wall this morning, in an attempt to find the Prince Of Wales winner. I like Dixie Strike. She came back nicely to run a decent troubled and wide third in the Queen's Plate. I think the switch from poly to will not bother her as much as some of the others in the field. My long shot contender is Ultimate Destiny, a horse who seems to be peaking. You can't discount the bottom horse either, Roger Attfield trained Colleen's Sailor. Corey Nakatani must have felt some potential in the Plate for him to take another plane ride and dust off his passport for the Prince of Wales. As for the probable favorite, Irish Mission, her breeding screams out grass and poly, she has also run quite a few good races in a row. Breeding and bounce factor and lack of betting value makes her a very good pitch this afternoon.
24 June 2012
Queen's Plate Prediction and More
I feel obligated to at least predict the winner of today's Queen's Plate. I'll start off by stating that I don't like Strait of Dover. He reminds me of Not Bourbon, and even though that horse won the Plate, generally, those type are not successful at a mile and a quarter. This one hasn't gone past a mile and a sixteenth, and hasn't raced in 43 days. To me, he is a pitch.
River Rush was very green in the Plate Trial and still pulled off a 5 length victory. The time for the race was 7 ticks faster than the very competitive Oaks. However, he travels like a sore horse and that might explain the fact he has had only 3 well spaced out races in his career. I expect a bounce, and that might mean he can still be used for third or fourth.
When taking recency and mileage under the belt (fitness and endurance), two horses stand out: The filly, Dixie Strike, disappointed in the Oaks, though she may have bounced. Her second last race is good enough to win the Plate. She gets blinkers on and has a five pound weight advantage (as does Oaks winner Irish Mission, who is a major bounce candidate, and is also inferior when it comes to speed figures). Trainer Mark Casse may have taken it too easy on Dixie Strike going into the Oaks, and I expect a much better effort in the Plate.
The other horse that looks to come into the race fit and completely ready to peak is Classic Bryce. He has a good post and jockey Todd Kabel will get the most out of him. His last running line in the Plate Trial is an indicator that he might enjoy a more relaxed pace that usually comes with a stretch out in distance. If he kicks in at all in the stretch, he could be the one.
Finally, the best jockey in North America, Ramon Dominguez, is aboard Big Creek. He was off a 43 day layoff going into the Plate Trial and he chased while running outside (which was against the bias, as the top three finishers were the ones closest to the rail during most of the race). Dominguez is also in a position to over whip the horse (he can afford the fine just as Alex Solis did in the Oaks with Irish Mission) if the horse needs it, as he would just be a first time offender, and excessive whipping would only cost him around 20% of his share...and no suspension.
So here is the superfecta: Dixie Strike, Big Creek, Classic Bryce, and River Rush.
The Crap Being Spewed By The Ontario Liberal Party
The Paulick Report has put out quite a few articles bringing to light the dismal situation the future of Ontario horse racing is facing right now. I had to chime in with a comment on one of his articles:
On the other side, as Pull The Pocket points out, the Ontario racing industry seems to be putting out unnecessary propaganda too. Mainly, it is done by a few, on articles in newspapers, Standardbred Canada, and Facebook, where comments and even articles use terms like "ill advised" plan, or "inexplicable" when referring to the new way the OLG wants to have casinos run.
Bottom line, and I've stated here before, the OLG knows they run an inefficient operation. Salaries and benefits have got way out of hand. They also don't want to pay for the expense of expanding gaming. So they have decided to privatize, which means they intend to just keep the role of oversight, and lose the role of operator.
The old deal was basically 10% to the tracks, 10% to the horsemen, and 5% to the municipality. That doesn't mean they made 75%. They had to pay the expenses, and in many cases, that works out to a high percentage of the 75% they retain, when you factor in things like utilities on top of highly paid casino workers. So in order to attract new operators the OLG will have to take a much smaller percentage of gross casino revenues, and bottom line, they could make more money in the long run....but when you take into account the lost horse racing jobs, the negative effects on the businesses near racetracks, etc., the government may still wind up in worse shape.
The reality is that the OLG only gets 20% of total gaming revenues at Caesar's in Windsor, so the government makes money, but Caesar's actually still loses money after giving the government the 20% share. There are a lot of operating expenses in running a casino. Table games have much thinner margins than slots as it takes a lot more employees to run those games, for example.
My point is that those questioning the new deal shouldn't be focused on the potential profits the OLG is expecting to make (they expect to make more by eliminating the expenses), but focus on the social and job impact that destroying the horse racing industry will have. The government's number one goal shouldn't be making the most profits they can off gambling, but keeping employment numbers as high as possible, and micro economies going as strongly as possible.
Frog Juice
The frog juice scandal has been growing legs. Louisiana is starting to name the culprits whose horses tested positive. Right now they are only facing 6 months, which is a typical slap on the wrist the industry tends to hand out. I believe these suspensions will wind up being much longer once final decision are made.
In a nutshell, it is so hard to catch cheaters, cheaters should be dealt with as harshly as possible when caught. It is the only way to deter those who seem to always be a step ahead of the regulators and lab testers.
2 years minimum, $50,000 fines, and possible jail sentences for those who use illegal drugs (I'm not talking about overages on legal substances, but illegal substances). This is the only way to clean up horse racing.
To show what horse racing is up against, here is a post from Pace Advantage by a lab worker who uses the handle Storm Chaser:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jorcus99
'I doubt there is a substance that is undetectable. There are only compounds that are not tested for yet.'
Storm Chaser posted:
'Great quote. To define the process, all substances are deemed undetectable until the specific lab can identify the gc-ms fingerprint of a specific drug. One it is identified then it is placed, if requested by the racing board as an illegal substance, to the labs testing profile.
The labs are usually the second in the chain to learn of a new doping agent. Once it is brought to their attention, then they have to try and acquire the drug to be able to break it down and test it. That process takes many months.
We just went through this with the NCAA and the other accredited labs in dealing with a new synthetic marijuana from Europe. We all heard the rumours about it, but could not acquire it here in the states. Our lab went to Germany to acquire it, bring it back to their lab to start analysing it. Mind you they had to get people to ingest it, so the could see how it was metabolized in the urine so they could devise a test for it. Then it took months of analysing the data before the felt good about testing for it in their clients athletes.
And then we found out that all the drug guys had to do was change one small part of the chemical mixture of the synthetic marijuana, and it was undetectable again because they changed the fingerprint again.
Lesson to be learned, the drug guys are always going to be ahead of the test labs with no end in sight.,
__________________
River Rush was very green in the Plate Trial and still pulled off a 5 length victory. The time for the race was 7 ticks faster than the very competitive Oaks. However, he travels like a sore horse and that might explain the fact he has had only 3 well spaced out races in his career. I expect a bounce, and that might mean he can still be used for third or fourth.
When taking recency and mileage under the belt (fitness and endurance), two horses stand out: The filly, Dixie Strike, disappointed in the Oaks, though she may have bounced. Her second last race is good enough to win the Plate. She gets blinkers on and has a five pound weight advantage (as does Oaks winner Irish Mission, who is a major bounce candidate, and is also inferior when it comes to speed figures). Trainer Mark Casse may have taken it too easy on Dixie Strike going into the Oaks, and I expect a much better effort in the Plate.
The other horse that looks to come into the race fit and completely ready to peak is Classic Bryce. He has a good post and jockey Todd Kabel will get the most out of him. His last running line in the Plate Trial is an indicator that he might enjoy a more relaxed pace that usually comes with a stretch out in distance. If he kicks in at all in the stretch, he could be the one.
Finally, the best jockey in North America, Ramon Dominguez, is aboard Big Creek. He was off a 43 day layoff going into the Plate Trial and he chased while running outside (which was against the bias, as the top three finishers were the ones closest to the rail during most of the race). Dominguez is also in a position to over whip the horse (he can afford the fine just as Alex Solis did in the Oaks with Irish Mission) if the horse needs it, as he would just be a first time offender, and excessive whipping would only cost him around 20% of his share...and no suspension.
So here is the superfecta: Dixie Strike, Big Creek, Classic Bryce, and River Rush.
The Crap Being Spewed By The Ontario Liberal Party
The Paulick Report has put out quite a few articles bringing to light the dismal situation the future of Ontario horse racing is facing right now. I had to chime in with a comment on one of his articles:
The tactics used by the Ontario Liberal Party really sickened me. Calling it a subsidy and pitting it against health care and education. The reality is that it is a business partnership and both partners needed each other to get it going. This arrangement has been the blueprint for all other slots deals in the US because of its success. As for pitting the revenues the tracks and horsemen get from slots, it is the goal of the OLG (a Crown Corp.) to privatize slots. What that means is the most of profits (that went to racetracks and purses), if not all of them will go to private operators instead of the racing industry and NOT to health care and education.
As for calling it a subsidy, in Ontario public sector workers make close to 30-40% more than private sector workers doing similar jobs when factoring in benefits (there is something called the Sunshine List, government workers who make over 100k a year, and it grows in leaps and bounds each year. In 2011, over 70,000 people were on the list). The Ontario taxpayer is subsidizing these overpaid individuals big time, yet the government is looking at wiping out the livelihood of those involved in the racing industry, many who make net incomes of 20k-50k.
On the other side, as Pull The Pocket points out, the Ontario racing industry seems to be putting out unnecessary propaganda too. Mainly, it is done by a few, on articles in newspapers, Standardbred Canada, and Facebook, where comments and even articles use terms like "ill advised" plan, or "inexplicable" when referring to the new way the OLG wants to have casinos run.
Bottom line, and I've stated here before, the OLG knows they run an inefficient operation. Salaries and benefits have got way out of hand. They also don't want to pay for the expense of expanding gaming. So they have decided to privatize, which means they intend to just keep the role of oversight, and lose the role of operator.
The old deal was basically 10% to the tracks, 10% to the horsemen, and 5% to the municipality. That doesn't mean they made 75%. They had to pay the expenses, and in many cases, that works out to a high percentage of the 75% they retain, when you factor in things like utilities on top of highly paid casino workers. So in order to attract new operators the OLG will have to take a much smaller percentage of gross casino revenues, and bottom line, they could make more money in the long run....but when you take into account the lost horse racing jobs, the negative effects on the businesses near racetracks, etc., the government may still wind up in worse shape.
The reality is that the OLG only gets 20% of total gaming revenues at Caesar's in Windsor, so the government makes money, but Caesar's actually still loses money after giving the government the 20% share. There are a lot of operating expenses in running a casino. Table games have much thinner margins than slots as it takes a lot more employees to run those games, for example.
My point is that those questioning the new deal shouldn't be focused on the potential profits the OLG is expecting to make (they expect to make more by eliminating the expenses), but focus on the social and job impact that destroying the horse racing industry will have. The government's number one goal shouldn't be making the most profits they can off gambling, but keeping employment numbers as high as possible, and micro economies going as strongly as possible.
Frog Juice
The frog juice scandal has been growing legs. Louisiana is starting to name the culprits whose horses tested positive. Right now they are only facing 6 months, which is a typical slap on the wrist the industry tends to hand out. I believe these suspensions will wind up being much longer once final decision are made.
In a nutshell, it is so hard to catch cheaters, cheaters should be dealt with as harshly as possible when caught. It is the only way to deter those who seem to always be a step ahead of the regulators and lab testers.
2 years minimum, $50,000 fines, and possible jail sentences for those who use illegal drugs (I'm not talking about overages on legal substances, but illegal substances). This is the only way to clean up horse racing.
To show what horse racing is up against, here is a post from Pace Advantage by a lab worker who uses the handle Storm Chaser:
Quote:
Originally Posted by jorcus99
'I doubt there is a substance that is undetectable. There are only compounds that are not tested for yet.'
Storm Chaser posted:
'Great quote. To define the process, all substances are deemed undetectable until the specific lab can identify the gc-ms fingerprint of a specific drug. One it is identified then it is placed, if requested by the racing board as an illegal substance, to the labs testing profile.
The labs are usually the second in the chain to learn of a new doping agent. Once it is brought to their attention, then they have to try and acquire the drug to be able to break it down and test it. That process takes many months.
We just went through this with the NCAA and the other accredited labs in dealing with a new synthetic marijuana from Europe. We all heard the rumours about it, but could not acquire it here in the states. Our lab went to Germany to acquire it, bring it back to their lab to start analysing it. Mind you they had to get people to ingest it, so the could see how it was metabolized in the urine so they could devise a test for it. Then it took months of analysing the data before the felt good about testing for it in their clients athletes.
And then we found out that all the drug guys had to do was change one small part of the chemical mixture of the synthetic marijuana, and it was undetectable again because they changed the fingerprint again.
Lesson to be learned, the drug guys are always going to be ahead of the test labs with no end in sight.,
__________________
14 June 2012
What Ontario Horse Racing Should Do With The Transitional Funding
I'm still not convinced that this nightmare for the Ontario horse racing (the removal of the revenue sharing agreement for slots at racetracks) can't be reversed. But those who seem to know more than me say "no chance," so I'll believe them for now.
The OLG seems to have acted way too fast as they do not have their ducks in a row, not even close. They don't know which tracks will remain, which jurisdictions will accept new casinos (with or without referendums), who will operate the casinos, who will build and operate new casinos, and they don't even know what the new deal is going to look like.
I think they are going to have a huge problem attracting reputable casino operators without giving away an arm and a leg. In Ontario so far, the current casinos that are operated by outsiders, are losing money propositions for the operators, and that is based on a program where the OLG only gets 20% of the total gaming revenues. It is a tough sale, even for the best of salesman, and the OLG not only needs to sell to communities but also to new potential operators. If the best they can offer is that transparent huckster Paul Godfrey, who is well past his prime, they are in bigger trouble than I give them credit for.
However, the OLG, being a Crown Corporation, needs to privatize operations badly, especially if they are to move ahead with this expansion, as they cannot afford the risk of building new casinos or even expanding current ones. Much of the reason is due to the Ontario Liberal Party way: salaries and benefits for OLG workers has gotten way out of hand, much like the majority of other public sector jobs under the Liberal reign of overspending. And the OLG knows that the expected ROI on table games isn't very high, so they want private corporations to come in and assume the risk.
There is also the aspect that government workers are much better at cashing paychecks than being creative and bringing innovative ideas to the table. Private business tends to be creative and motivated, as well, they have an understanding of things like optimal pricing of their products.
Before I share my idea to save horse racing in Ontario, I want to add one more thing. It is imperative that racetracks play hardball when it comes to renting their locations to the OLG. There is no way the OLG will be in a position to move a significant share of slots to locations that aren't even built yet. My advice is for track owners to get together and hold out for even more money than the horsemen and track's share was under the old deal. As for terms. Ask for two years, but don't take anything less than a year.
The OLG will have no choice but to pay as they cannot afford to give up the revenues from slots. This will buy an extra year or two for the industry. The only risk I see is if we are dealing with a small track with a small amount of slots where the profit margin isn't very high. Still, where is the OLG going to move the slots? To an out of business laundromat?
As for Fort Erie, Windsor, and Sarnia. I think lawsuits are in order. There has to be something wrong with a government restricting a private enterprises right to make a living by giving preferential treatment to a Crown entity. This could be an anti-trust situation. Liberal Party embarrassment Dwight Duncan referred to the slots at tracks as competition to the casinos when trying to rationalize the raid of slot machines from these tracks. Of course, the real reason was to prop up the stand alone casinos bottom line so that their numbers in the future won't be as bad, therefore making it easier to attract potential operators for the other casinos province wide.
HOW TO USE THE $50 MILLION TRANSITIONAL FUNDING TO ATTEMPT TO SAVE RACING IN ONTARIO
Just to bring everyone up to speed, around a week ago the Ontario Liberal government announced that $50 million would be made available over the next three years to help sustain the horse racing industry. A panel has been created to take suggestions. Their mandate:
Assuming that the slots at racetrack program is dead, the only revenues to fund purses will now come from betting dollars on horse racing, and perhaps some rental income to whoever is operating the casinos that remain at certain racetracks.
The horse racing industry must come to grips with this, and they have to do it now. The money needs to be used to try to create more bettors willing to wager on horse racing. The Ontario government, through the OLG, may have the rights to casino gambling and even sports betting, but when it comes to parimutuel wagering on horses, that territory belongs to the Ontario horse racing industry.
If the horse racing industry can't get enough money wagered on it to be sustainable, well then, it really is time to give it up or reduce down to two or three tracks. But I think horse race wagering can be revitalized and actually compete with not only slots but the OLG lotteries (take that McGuinty).
What horse racing in Ontario needs to do is develop and market their own weekly parimutuel lottery, much like the Swedish V75, however, because of shorter fields than in Sweden (which is a Pick 7 format), as well the reality that inside horses have a big edge in harness races, a Pick 12 in Ontario may be required.
It would be a Sunday lottery that cuts off at 2 PM. Thoroughbred tracks, when racing can be used as well as harness races. The last three or four races in the sequence will be broadcast live from 5:30 to 6:00 PM either on the internet, the Score or Sportsnet. It will have a 35% takeout (high for parimutuel, low for lottery). Two thirds of the money paid out will go to those who select all 12 winners (no winner means the money will carryover to next week). The other third will be divided up to those who select the first four winners, middle four winner, and last four winners as well as another consolation prize going to those who select the most winners (all lotteries require some churn, plus giving a prize for the last four winners will create more viewers for the live show).
It is highly unlikely that the OLG will add this to their menu, and who needs them as a partner anyway if slots go bye bye? That is why most of the $50 million will be needed to develop the technology to bring this across Ontario and maybe even all across Canada, as well, the money will be needed to create kiosks to place in variety stores. Tickets can be sold there, as well as through wagering accounts. But money will be needed to market this wager on TV, radio and the internet.
Money may also be needed to guarantee the first few pools. I figure that by making this a 20 cent base wager ($1 minimum), there needs to be something close to half a million being offered in order to attract the masses to begin with. This is not unrealistic at all.
The public will get excited watching races under this format. And it won't take long for them to realize that handicapping can improve their odds, instead of going the quick pick route. This is how to cultivate new Horseplayers from lottery players. Quick picks will definitely need to take post position into account and come up with a higher rate of low numbers to give the buyers their best shot at churn money or a jackpot win.
So where does the 35% go? A small commission goes to variety store owners of course. Some goes back to marketing, some goes to breeding awards, but the overwhelming chunk goes to the racetracks to split amongst tracks and purse accounts.
The monies can be allocated using various formulas. For instance, money bet within a 30 mile circumference from a racetrack goes to that racetrack, or the entire pool can be allocated to tracks based on the percentage of races they put on each year, or the last 6 months, etc. A mixture of these formulas can be incorporated just the same.
Having horse racing kiosks in stores opens the door to allowing patrons to wager on any horse race there as well, not that I expect that to be a huge win, it is still additional money and exposure. As for parimutuel lotteries. It doesn't have to stop at a once a week Pick 12, but daily Pick 4's (with a 25% takeout ahem!) can be offered as well.
Betting cards can be bought at convenience stores, either anonymously or using one's actual info. These betting cards can offer rebate points that can be accumulated to make future wagers.
Wins of under $300 can be paid out by the convenience store, but larger wins means going to the track...and that is another way to keep the momentum going.
The Ontario government wants horse racing to stand on their own two feet. This is how to do it, my friends.
The OLG seems to have acted way too fast as they do not have their ducks in a row, not even close. They don't know which tracks will remain, which jurisdictions will accept new casinos (with or without referendums), who will operate the casinos, who will build and operate new casinos, and they don't even know what the new deal is going to look like.
I think they are going to have a huge problem attracting reputable casino operators without giving away an arm and a leg. In Ontario so far, the current casinos that are operated by outsiders, are losing money propositions for the operators, and that is based on a program where the OLG only gets 20% of the total gaming revenues. It is a tough sale, even for the best of salesman, and the OLG not only needs to sell to communities but also to new potential operators. If the best they can offer is that transparent huckster Paul Godfrey, who is well past his prime, they are in bigger trouble than I give them credit for.
However, the OLG, being a Crown Corporation, needs to privatize operations badly, especially if they are to move ahead with this expansion, as they cannot afford the risk of building new casinos or even expanding current ones. Much of the reason is due to the Ontario Liberal Party way: salaries and benefits for OLG workers has gotten way out of hand, much like the majority of other public sector jobs under the Liberal reign of overspending. And the OLG knows that the expected ROI on table games isn't very high, so they want private corporations to come in and assume the risk.
There is also the aspect that government workers are much better at cashing paychecks than being creative and bringing innovative ideas to the table. Private business tends to be creative and motivated, as well, they have an understanding of things like optimal pricing of their products.
Before I share my idea to save horse racing in Ontario, I want to add one more thing. It is imperative that racetracks play hardball when it comes to renting their locations to the OLG. There is no way the OLG will be in a position to move a significant share of slots to locations that aren't even built yet. My advice is for track owners to get together and hold out for even more money than the horsemen and track's share was under the old deal. As for terms. Ask for two years, but don't take anything less than a year.
The OLG will have no choice but to pay as they cannot afford to give up the revenues from slots. This will buy an extra year or two for the industry. The only risk I see is if we are dealing with a small track with a small amount of slots where the profit margin isn't very high. Still, where is the OLG going to move the slots? To an out of business laundromat?
As for Fort Erie, Windsor, and Sarnia. I think lawsuits are in order. There has to be something wrong with a government restricting a private enterprises right to make a living by giving preferential treatment to a Crown entity. This could be an anti-trust situation. Liberal Party embarrassment Dwight Duncan referred to the slots at tracks as competition to the casinos when trying to rationalize the raid of slot machines from these tracks. Of course, the real reason was to prop up the stand alone casinos bottom line so that their numbers in the future won't be as bad, therefore making it easier to attract potential operators for the other casinos province wide.
HOW TO USE THE $50 MILLION TRANSITIONAL FUNDING TO ATTEMPT TO SAVE RACING IN ONTARIO
Just to bring everyone up to speed, around a week ago the Ontario Liberal government announced that $50 million would be made available over the next three years to help sustain the horse racing industry. A panel has been created to take suggestions. Their mandate:
Work with the industry to help develop a vision for the future.
Provide recommendations to the government on how to allocate transition funding.
Advise on the modernization of other industry revenue sources to assist the industry in becoming more self-sufficient.
A final report from the panel is expected in late summer 2012.
Assuming that the slots at racetrack program is dead, the only revenues to fund purses will now come from betting dollars on horse racing, and perhaps some rental income to whoever is operating the casinos that remain at certain racetracks.
The horse racing industry must come to grips with this, and they have to do it now. The money needs to be used to try to create more bettors willing to wager on horse racing. The Ontario government, through the OLG, may have the rights to casino gambling and even sports betting, but when it comes to parimutuel wagering on horses, that territory belongs to the Ontario horse racing industry.
If the horse racing industry can't get enough money wagered on it to be sustainable, well then, it really is time to give it up or reduce down to two or three tracks. But I think horse race wagering can be revitalized and actually compete with not only slots but the OLG lotteries (take that McGuinty).
What horse racing in Ontario needs to do is develop and market their own weekly parimutuel lottery, much like the Swedish V75, however, because of shorter fields than in Sweden (which is a Pick 7 format), as well the reality that inside horses have a big edge in harness races, a Pick 12 in Ontario may be required.
It would be a Sunday lottery that cuts off at 2 PM. Thoroughbred tracks, when racing can be used as well as harness races. The last three or four races in the sequence will be broadcast live from 5:30 to 6:00 PM either on the internet, the Score or Sportsnet. It will have a 35% takeout (high for parimutuel, low for lottery). Two thirds of the money paid out will go to those who select all 12 winners (no winner means the money will carryover to next week). The other third will be divided up to those who select the first four winners, middle four winner, and last four winners as well as another consolation prize going to those who select the most winners (all lotteries require some churn, plus giving a prize for the last four winners will create more viewers for the live show).
It is highly unlikely that the OLG will add this to their menu, and who needs them as a partner anyway if slots go bye bye? That is why most of the $50 million will be needed to develop the technology to bring this across Ontario and maybe even all across Canada, as well, the money will be needed to create kiosks to place in variety stores. Tickets can be sold there, as well as through wagering accounts. But money will be needed to market this wager on TV, radio and the internet.
Money may also be needed to guarantee the first few pools. I figure that by making this a 20 cent base wager ($1 minimum), there needs to be something close to half a million being offered in order to attract the masses to begin with. This is not unrealistic at all.
The public will get excited watching races under this format. And it won't take long for them to realize that handicapping can improve their odds, instead of going the quick pick route. This is how to cultivate new Horseplayers from lottery players. Quick picks will definitely need to take post position into account and come up with a higher rate of low numbers to give the buyers their best shot at churn money or a jackpot win.
So where does the 35% go? A small commission goes to variety store owners of course. Some goes back to marketing, some goes to breeding awards, but the overwhelming chunk goes to the racetracks to split amongst tracks and purse accounts.
The monies can be allocated using various formulas. For instance, money bet within a 30 mile circumference from a racetrack goes to that racetrack, or the entire pool can be allocated to tracks based on the percentage of races they put on each year, or the last 6 months, etc. A mixture of these formulas can be incorporated just the same.
Having horse racing kiosks in stores opens the door to allowing patrons to wager on any horse race there as well, not that I expect that to be a huge win, it is still additional money and exposure. As for parimutuel lotteries. It doesn't have to stop at a once a week Pick 12, but daily Pick 4's (with a 25% takeout ahem!) can be offered as well.
Betting cards can be bought at convenience stores, either anonymously or using one's actual info. These betting cards can offer rebate points that can be accumulated to make future wagers.
Wins of under $300 can be paid out by the convenience store, but larger wins means going to the track...and that is another way to keep the momentum going.
The Ontario government wants horse racing to stand on their own two feet. This is how to do it, my friends.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)