The Artificial Surface Debate Continues

Dubai just gave away a ton of money, much of it to some mediocre Stake type horses. The results on Saturday sparked horse racing handicapping guru Steven Crist to pop a vein or two in his head.

I agree with Crist to a point. Artificial surfaces definitely create more random results than real dirt. It is still possible to handicap a three horse triactor box that pays over $1800 for a buck, for example.

You can’t love a horse

Vic Zast put out a column on Sunday, Dirt Is Officially A Four Letter Word. I think it is a very fair analysis of the reality of artificial surfaces, though the title of the article is a little deceiving as it is from the Euro/Dubai perspective.

The reality is that artificial surfaces need to be bet in a different way than dirt races. On the dirt, a handicapper can love a horse to win (though, as we know, they don't necessarily have to win), but on artificial surfaces, it might be possible to love a horse to run in the money.

There are a few reasons for the randomness. Jockeys tend to race as if they are on the turf, and they don't ask the horse until there is four furlongs or less to go in the race. Positioning becomes more important, good trips especially in the last half mile, as well as being on the biased part of the track, outweigh a horses overall true natural ability on race day much of the time. Kickback sometimes is stronger on some days, and horses seem to be individuals when it comes to them handling the kickback. Texture of the surface has also been a going concern, as the characteristics of the track tend to change with even slight temperature changes of a few degrees. The same horse might like the footing on one day, and not like it on another day. Drafting seems to be more advantageous on these surfaces as well. Many times if a horse goes to the front or gets the lead too early at Woodbine, the horse is much less likely to hang on when compared to when Woodbine was a dirt strip.

Polytrack seems to be equivalent to tracks that used to be called "slow" in The Racing Form (you rarely see that designation anymore). Tapeta and Pro-Ride tend to be closer to "good-slow" tracks.

When it comes to horseplayers, artificial surfaces are definitely a polarizing issue. Many hate it with a passion....and this is not a good thing because the racing industry in Canada and the USA can not afford to lose any more customers.

Artificial surfaces need to be handicapped with value in mind because of the randomness. High takeouts of course, make it so value is hard to come by no matter what the surface is, but there seems to be more value plays found for artificial surface bettors. It might be that the more sophisticated handicappers bet on dirt tracks, and many avoid artificial surfaces. But with handle in North America dropping, this phenomenon could change rather quickly.


So What Is Good About Artificial Surfaces?
Besides, the possible value that may still exist when betting exotics or longer priced horses (not quite throwing mud against the wall, but pretty close), artificial surfaces apparently save horses lives. Horses euthanized on track at Woodbine dropped by 60% since changing surfaces. However, we've seen some real bad jockey injuries on artificial surfaces, and it is commonly heard that when a jockey is unseated, there is no bounce on the surface. Would the injuries to Rene Douglas, Julia Brimo and Chad Beckon have been as severe if they occurred on the dirt?

Perhaps the best thing that could come out of artificial surfaces has to do with the future of the breed. It is pretty apparent that horses need more stamina to be successful. Breeding for two year old speed becomes less favorable. The result could be a breed that can race longer distances and horses that have much longer careers. When horses have longer careers they tend to attract more of a fan following, which of course, is good for growth.

Obviously, we are not there yet. The US Triple Crown is held on dirt tracks, and the good ones tend to hit stud by 3 or 4 at the latest, while the others seem to just disappear very quickly due to injury or just plain burn out.

It will be interesting to see what happens in clashes between Europeans (who are now breeding for artificial surfaces) and US bred horses. In Ontario now, horses are being bred for artificial surfaces as well. Over the next 3-5 years, I expect Ontario bred older horses to beat up on US bred horses going long, and on any surface. Time will tell.


Nick Kling slams Crist

Nevertheless, I consider a March 27 blog entry titled "Dubai World Crapshoot" written by Daily Racing Form (DRF) Publisher and columnist Steven Crist to be needlessly intemperate. If legendary DRF executive columnist Joe Hirsch was still alive, he would be embarrassed someone from his beloved 'Turf Authority' had composed anything so obnoxious.

A couple of very passionate Pace Advantage Forums on this topic:
Steve Crist: Tapeta Shmapeta! and Vic Zast: Dirt Officially a Four-Letter Word!


Fun Stuff: Bill Christine Lists 25 Horse Racing Quotes

Handicapping Woodbine: I've Thrown In The White Towel

Today marks the first time in around 30 years that I've decided not to either buy a form or download a racing card from Woodbine (or Greenwood RIP).
I know I constantly complain about the track takeout at Woodbine, but that hasn't stopped me completely from handicapping, and betting on Woodbine races (though because of the takeout, Woodbine betting from me represents only around 10% of what I bet in total).

I've decided to stop taking a brick to my head and going WHAP! Woodbine has to be the hardest track in North America to handicap. And thanks to the takeout, it is IMPOSSIBLE to be a long term winner, even if you are the luckiest bettor on this planet. I can't become drawn anymore to the biggest track in the jurisdiction I live, just because it is there.

Please, this is not sour grapes. I pride myself on being one of the best handicappers on this planet. I've had scores of $20,000 or more four times in the last 18 years. I know what I'm doing. And by all means, I'm not giving up on handicapping and betting. In fact over the next few months, I expect to go heavier than I ever have before. But nothing will go through my HPI account.

My problem is that when I do handicap a card, I handicap for value. I often come up with plays that would yield very good scores. It is hard not to play them, if I have knowledge that I picked them. This year, I have to admit, I'm not even close to hitting them. So my new motto is ignorance is bliss.

Why is Woodbine so hard to handicap?
I'm not a Polytrack hater, but the Poly in this case has a lot to do with it. The Woodbine jockey colony has figured out that they don't have to move early on it, especially if they feel they have horse underneath. If you look at some of the fractions for distance races especially, the half mile time becomes a huge joke. 50-52 seconds for horses running for $70,000 purses? And what is worse is in the old days, a horse who used to get away with those type of fractions would almost be a cinch to win the race. Now, despite the fact that Dan Loiselle keeps stating that his horse will be tough to beat from there, these horses are lucky to hit the board.

What this means is that times of races become almost irrelevant. Especially the further they go. The race comes down to who has the best 3 furlong kick and who can stay out of trouble when the kick happens. Basically, it is all randomness. And at the collective 21% takeout, it is far too expensive a deal. Might as well play the 649 (they have a 40-50% takeout but if you hit is once, you are set for a few lifetimes).

I think another reason that is less apparent to many handicappers, is the usage of drugs. This year, perhaps the "weening off" of steroids has a lot to do with the randomness that is happening. Some trainers might be experimenting with other ways to keep their horses built up. Some of these programs may be working, some may not, and in some cases, horses are still on steroids, as the ban doesn't kick in for another couple of weeks.

Now, I will still continue to do track variants for Woodbine races because I like playing Fort Erie (only with rebates of course...I wouldn't touch the Fort without them as they rate 70th out of 71 when it comes to best takeout rate in North America), and it is important to have figures for Woodbine because of all the Woodbine invaders. I'll probably handicap the Queen's Plate.


HYSTERICAL
Watching the infamous Bug's Boy race. Yesterday, he looked like an immortal cinch as Dan Loiselle used the term "under a hand ride." Simon Husbands is now in a situation that he can't whip the horse. And every time the horse runs now, he makes a great move "under a hand ride," and then stops at the sixteenth pole "under the same hand ride."

Again, the suspension handed out last year was warranted. The amount of time of the suspension wasn't. But the ORC made a mockery of the Woodbine Stewards, and pissed on the bettors, by reversing the decision.

The Stewards have been doing an excellent job. And they are all ex jockeys. They know that something was fishy with Simon's ride last year, and took appropriate action.



Will Calvin Borel be the first jockey to win the Triple Crown on more than one horse?
What if Rachel Alexandra doesn't go in the Belmont. Will Borel get the mount back on Mine That Bird? If it was my horse, he would.
I'm a firm believer that if Borel chose Mine That Bird, The Bird would have won the Preakness. Going long, a jockey with knowledge of a horse, has to be worth something, and conversely, a different rider on Rachel might have screwed her up just enough to lose the race.



Problems With Bonus Money At Fort Erie
It has been brought to my attention that Ontario breds will not be receiving the $750 bonus from the HBPA that they received last year.
Apparently, this decision was made either during or just after the HBPA decided to give over $500,000 as part of the ransom demanded by Nordic Racing in order to keep the 2009 racing season alive at the Fort.
The major problem I have with all this, is that it was never announced by the HBPA. So owners are finding out now, after they won with an Ontario bred, that they aren't getting the bonus.
The Ontario HBPA finally took off the bonus structure from their web site, but it didn't happen until late last week. This is what it looked like (click to enlarge):

I still think the bonuses should be reinstated, and to find the money to pay it, Fort Erie should eliminate all allowance races. If someone thinks they have a horse worth more than $18,000, send them to Woodbine and find out.

Of note, the CTHS still pays out a bonus to Ontario breds:

$15,000 - $20,000 Claiming: $1,000 Sales Credit & $1,000 Owners Bonus
$7,500 - $10,000 Claiming: $750 Sales Credit & $750 Owners Bonus

The Sales Credits will be issued to owner of the Registered Ontario-Bred winner at the above listed
claiming levels. These credits will be cumulative and must be used within one sales calendar year after
earned. The Owners Bonuses will be issued to the owner of the Registered Ontario-Bred winner at the
above listed claiming levels and will be distributed by the CTHS on or around the 15th day of the following
month.

For Fort Erie allowance races (races which I think should be eliminated):

In order for horses to be eligible for the added $2,500 (winner only) at Fort Erie the winner must also be
Registered Ontario-Breds, at the time of the race, as explained above. When running in Optional Claiming
Races only horses running without a claiming price are eligible.

Lets not forget about the ridiculous rule in Ontario that was imposed last year. If someone claims an Ontario bred horse from 2008 and on, the owner is not entitled to the full purse that is up for grabs. They get to run for the amount of purse that foreign bred horses run for.

So if someone claimed an Ontario bred last year or this year, and wins a Fort race in a $4,000 or $5,000 claiming race, they get nothing extra, from the CTHS or HPBA, and they only get to share in 85% of the announced purse.

Again, this hurts the small owners, and the small owners of today are the big owners of tomorrow in some instances. It hurts Ontario breeders as well, as it creates less demand (less owners) for their horses. As I've stated before, most owners enter the game claiming horses, not buying them at sales or buying them privately.



Yesterday's first race at Mountaineer was ugly. Why did the jockey feel compelled to whip Nice Irish Boy when he had an insurmountable lead at the sixteenth pole?


I originally misspelled Rachel Alexandra, "Rachel Alexander." That wound up getting me a lot of Google hits on this blog, as many others did the same. More and more people now are informed of Woodbine's high takeout situation now:)


IMPORTANT INFO FOR AMERICAN READERS
HANA has put up a link and a lot of info regarding the new bill introduced in the USA to eliminate the automatic 25% withholding on pari-mutuel winnings of $5,000 or more. It is important that as many people as possible show their support for the bill. Click here to find easy links in which you can show your support.