New Pimlico Wager Not Very Well Thought Out

Frank Stronach got laughed at by anyone who understands wagering for his Quad Superfecta idea, which would have resulted in the same potential combinations as 20 times the amount of stars in Milky Way Galaxy if only dealing with 8 horse races.

So it appears he toned down the odds. Instead of 8 trillion to one, Stronach and/or his brain trust has come up with a bet that has "only" 250 million combos (if all races at 8 horses). It is called the "Slider."

To cash the $100,000 guaranteed Slider you have to pick the winner of the first leg, the straight exactor in the second leg, the straight triactor in the third leg, and the straight superfecta in the fourth leg.

The goal of course is to have the pool grow because of the impossibility of cashing it, to a point where it will be worth millions and millions, thus attracting new millions every day.

The problem with this is that the Slider Pool has as much chance to grow to even a million as someone buying a quick pick has in cashing it.

Who is going to build the pool? Today's bettor is pretty sophisticated. And even if they even try it once just to get a first hand idea of how impossible it is to cash, they will stop donating in a hurry.

The lottery or slots player may not understand the bet. Go into a slots parlor and ask some blue haired old lady what a superfecta is if you don't believe me.

And besides, a bet that everyone can understand, the Pick 6, is a tough sell to lottery players even when the pools get into the hundreds of thousands or even millions.

As for the 18% takeout, what a joke. I can just hear Frank Stronach say, "dey vant low takeout betz, I give dem a low takeout bet. Dohs so called value players vont be able to turn dis bet down."

A bet like this that is potentially life changing (though if someone wins this won they might wind up with two or three years of income in reality), doesn't need a low takeout. There isn't enough time to churn back the winnings for most gamblers.
This is the kind of bet that can get away with a 35% takeout.

Lower the takeout on exactors and doubles to 18% or lower Frank, if you seriously want the game to grow, and if you are looking to attract value players.

Back to the Slider. If you make the following bet, key a winner onto an exactor box onto a triactor box onto a superfecta box, the 50 cent bet will cost $144 (1*2*6*24*.50cents). Good luck to that. Also, think about how many times in your life you ever would have hit that exact sequence. If you said zero, you are telling the truth.

Now lets say it is a super chalky looking four races. You like a 3-2 shot in the first leg, and exactor that will pay $20 in the second if it wins, a triactor that will pay $80 for a deuce in the third leg, and a super that figures to pay $200 in fourth leg for a dollar.
The probability of that hitting (when taking real odds before takeout) is something like 3*25*50*260 which is about 975,000-1. Again, I don't see the pool hitting a million ever, and there are probably only a very few days when a sequence like this is even likely, even at Pimlico.

Another reason this bet has failure written all over it is there are no consolation prizes. Lotteries and slots understand that churn is critical to keep players in the hunt. Lets say you are lucky enough to hit the first three legs in the Slider, it is an insult to say "thanks for playing, come again."

I'm all for bets that might lure slots and lottery players into betting on the races, but this bet will not do it.

The Gulfstream Pick 6 and the Fortune 6 at Beulah are very good ideas in that they can potentially grow enough to the point where the unsophisticated crowd might take a chance and might start learning about the races in the process. It is simple. Pick a winner each race, and the fact that if you do hit all 6 parts but share the pool, you will get more than just "too bad, so sad, try again." Even sophisticated players have admitted playing these bets when the pools get up high enough.

You can tell something about this bet, it was devised by someone who doesn't understand the bettor or the potential bettor. There was most likely zero market research done as well.

A National Lottery Pick 7 or 8 might work. But it would need to be available at Quickie Mart kiosks across the country. Oh, and consolation prizes are a must.

Why didn't Pimlico at least run the idea through HANA before coming out with a new bet? They'll help, I'm sure. But there is no way thumbs up would have been given for The Slider."

A real businessman would have reached out to the public first. This Slider is just a hare brained scheme devised by someone who just has zero clue.