Jeff Gural's Plan To Discourage The Retirement of Three Year Olds To Stud
Great idea. In fact, Gural have he may have got that from me. Unfortunately for thoroughbred fans, Gural is only talking harness here, and only talking three tracks.
No mention of broodmares. I think it is important that they don't stop racing too quickly either.
The two good things that will come from this for either harness or thoroughbred horses, is that good horses will have careers that can be followed longer, and it gives them a chance to develop a larger fan base, and secondly, it will lead to horses being bred for longevity instead of being bred to be a shooting star.
Trainer Lou Pena Barred At Yonkers
Two harness stories in a row, well they could be thoroughbred stories just the same, as the issues overlap in both industries.
Pena was barred for winning way way way too much. The controversy here is that whatever he is allegedly using to improve horses so drastically has not been found.
Tracks are private property, so one can be guilty until proven innocent. But this line of rule is hardly used.
As for his guilt, I think John Carter's comment at Standardbred Canada says it all:
"Lou Pena has this sport figured out. He knew the exact right speed to jog his horses thru the week. He figured out the exact right amount of hay and oats to feed his horses on a daily basis. He probably also knew the exact right amount of water to let them drink every day. This was pure genius on his part, no other trainer on the planet has been able to crack this formula and step up horses like they were given rocket fuel. No it is all technique."
The reality here is that both the thoroughbred and standardbred game doesn't do enough to deter cheating. Trainers get a slap on the wrist usually when caught. How about making cheating a criminal offense. Kinda like the riots in Britain, if I was vandalizing a business, I'd expect to be shot at, and until a couple of youths are shot or hurt real bad, there is nothing to stop it.
Super trainers are bad for the game. They not only create races that many handicappers won't play, but they also deter new owners from entering the game (if you are up against cheaters, you are mainly running for third or fourth money).
California Takeout Hike Is Hurting Handle
Del Mar's handle is shrinking (doesn't seem to be the economy judging by Saratoga's results so far), and the tracks want to reduce the takeout on at least a couple of exotics but the TOC isn't too into it. As long as the purses are artificially? higher, the horsemen have no urgency to do the right thing. But since the deal that was made last year which winds up giving the horsemen a higher percentage of what is bet, handle has fallen, and it is the tracks that have been getting clobbered. This is unsustainable, and the tracks know it. The horsemen may know it too, but until they are faced with purse cuts or date cuts, they will probably tend to stay away from fair negotiations regarding the future.
The Players Boycott is hurting them too. Probably not as much as they think, though I know at least 5 players who won't even open up California past performances, and my guess is that there are probably a lot more.
No, the decrease in handle has more to do with increased signal fees and takeout which create a lot less plays for value bettors, which causes them to be pickier and play less. Secondly, those who cash tickets are getting back less, and have less to churn with. This phenomenon gets only will get worse, as these players who don't last as long as they used to have less urgency in coming back to the track as often, and some actually quit over time.
As for the Players Boycott's effectiveness, well how many tracks have increased takeout since California decided to? NONE! How many have lowered takeout on at least one wager? Lots. Even Parx and Penn have got into the action of reducing takeouts. The Boycott is good for Horseplayers, and that means it is good for horse racing's future.
VEGAS NUMBERS IMPROVING
Is this a leading indicator that the economy is about to rebound? How come we aren't seeing the same thing in horse racing?
Maybe it has a lot to do with the US government coming down hard on online poker. These players need to go somewhere, they are after all gamblers.
Too bad horse racing doesn't have the visible winners poker did. Oh wait, the takeout is too damn high for that to happen.
There is very good reason to believe that some online poker players are actually getting their feet wet in online horse racing now. Again, the fact they won't last very long means that racing is missing a golden opportunity right now. And the learning curve is very steep as well.
The online poker players willing to give horse racing a shot though are probably smart enough to get started at ADWs that give rebates, as they are by nature, very price conscious. This fact may help cultivate the odd player into a long term Horseplayer. The industry can only hope.
Showing posts with label Lou Pena. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lou Pena. Show all posts
11 August 2011
20 June 2010
The Trainer Must Have Something
The phrase "the trainer must have something" has been around for quite some time. It doesn't mean that there is no significance to it. Apologists and those who benefit from the use of undetectable drugs like to call it sour grapes, and in some cases that may be true, but overall, if it walks like a duck, and talks like a duck, it is a cheating trainer.
Even tracks like Woodbine admit there are undetectable drugs being used. Maybe not in words, but that is what the detention barn is all about.
The reality is that it is expensive to test for everything, and it is difficult to test for something that is successfully masked, or even worse, an unknown substance.
Rats aren't popular, and it is almost impossible to find one amongst the backstretch community. Shane Sellers admitted he used a buzzer, and he was ripped by many as being a possible liar, or just a despicable person for putting it out there. Personally, I'd love to see a former "super trainer" come out one day and expose himself. Might make for a best seller, assuming there are enough horse racing fans left to buy it, when the book finally comes out.
There are only so many ways to legally train a horse, and most trainers know the angles. That is why when you see a 25% plus trainer over a long stretch, it is an insult to one's intelligence to buy into the excuse that it is the trainer's methods that are behind the win rate.
Sure, there are ways for trainers to increase their win percentage without doing anything underhanded, like spotting horses in small fields (like they do in California), or dropping significantly enough, however, with each win comes one less condition, and therefore tougher competition, so the longer a horse runs under a high percentage trainer, the less likely their win rate will remain as high, in a drug free world that is.
Lots has been written about Super Trainer Lou Pena (harness trainer). Andrew Cohen wrote a series of articles questioning Pena's prowess. The most significant is this one which includes many facts:
In another article, Bob Pandolfo left a comment:
What I find most disturbing are the Pena supporters. Harness racing is dying faster than thoroughbred racing, yet, what I suspect is coming from a certain clique of trainers and owners, there are people going after Cohen and calling Pena criticizers witch hunters.
Between absurdly high track takeouts and insider drug info, how much chance does Joe Bettor have anymore? And with Super Trainers stealing purse monies, lots of incentives to new owners to try to make a buck in the game, is much depleted.
Sure, Pena might just be a great trainer who is getting extra lucky, but I like my chances of winning the Lotto Max jackpot next Friday more.
So what might Super Trainers be using these days?
One commenter, Joe, wrote this:
There is a test for CERA, but I'm unaware if it has been implement at any North American tracks yet.
Of course, when it comes to undetectable drugs and blocks, synthetic cobra venom and snail venom always come up. There is a test for cobra venom, but it still hasn't made it to the North American labs. Here is an interesting video on the problem and the new test:
Venom blocks injuries which allows a horse to run through its soreness. This increases the likelihood of serious breakdowns during the race.
EPO/DPO/Micera are blood boosters. The use of these drugs have been known to have adverse long term effects on horses. Probably one of the reasons that if you pick up a Daily Racing Form from 2 years ago, many times, most of the horses entered aren't around today.
Super Trainers are one step ahead of the testing barn, and from recent conversations, I am starting to think that the real good stuff is most likely a narcotic, one that gets horses wound up like a crack addict trying to score more crack. Something that gets the horse so buzzed that they would run through a wall.
And who knows, more than one undetectable drug can be used at once, if undetectable, the more the merrier to the cheater. Bill Finley has been writing about banning Lasix for years, because according to research, Lasix is a very good mask of other drugs.
The other reason that Super Trainers are probably not using something known is the fact that there are many trainers who experiment all the time with concoctions that they hope won't test because of masking, in order to get an edge. Many do get caught. I'm sure the RMTC Recent Rulings section is full of such trainers.
Penalties just aren't high enough. Not high enough to deter many trainers from "taking a shot." I've always maintained that since we are dealing with both purse money and betting money, criminal charges should be laid in many instances. Why isn't illegal drug use on horses defrauding the public?
Of course, some might argue that if it isn't being tested for, it is legal. Obviously not, or there would be no detention barns.
If you have a tip regarding a cheater in Ontario, the Ontario Racing Commission and Crimestoppers have teamed up. To make a completely anonymous call: 1-800-222-TIPS
Now For Something Much Lighter
Funny blog piece at ThatsAmoreStable.net: Seven Racetrack Characters To Avoid
I left the following comment: "I’m Talking To Himself Guy, except all the talking goes on in my head.
Another guy to avoid is Chronic Rooting Guy: He roots for his horse from the far turn right to end even if his horse is backing through the field at the head of the stretch."
A lot more comments on the piece can be found at Pace Advantage.
Even tracks like Woodbine admit there are undetectable drugs being used. Maybe not in words, but that is what the detention barn is all about.
The reality is that it is expensive to test for everything, and it is difficult to test for something that is successfully masked, or even worse, an unknown substance.
Rats aren't popular, and it is almost impossible to find one amongst the backstretch community. Shane Sellers admitted he used a buzzer, and he was ripped by many as being a possible liar, or just a despicable person for putting it out there. Personally, I'd love to see a former "super trainer" come out one day and expose himself. Might make for a best seller, assuming there are enough horse racing fans left to buy it, when the book finally comes out.
There are only so many ways to legally train a horse, and most trainers know the angles. That is why when you see a 25% plus trainer over a long stretch, it is an insult to one's intelligence to buy into the excuse that it is the trainer's methods that are behind the win rate.
Sure, there are ways for trainers to increase their win percentage without doing anything underhanded, like spotting horses in small fields (like they do in California), or dropping significantly enough, however, with each win comes one less condition, and therefore tougher competition, so the longer a horse runs under a high percentage trainer, the less likely their win rate will remain as high, in a drug free world that is.
Lots has been written about Super Trainer Lou Pena (harness trainer). Andrew Cohen wrote a series of articles questioning Pena's prowess. The most significant is this one which includes many facts:
"Moreover, the average horse improved over five lengths in those starts. And many of these former trainers are well known and respected horsemen."
In another article, Bob Pandolfo left a comment:
"When you run Trackmaster's Statmaster for Cal Expo (it only goes back to 2005), from 2005 through June 17, 2010, Lou Pena sent out over 3438 horses and had a 14% win percentage and he won 10% first off the claim. Again, according to Statmaster, at Harrahs Chester, his win percentage over the past year and a half is 47% and he has won 75% (12 for 16) first off the claim. At the Meadowlands he won 26% and was 33% first off the claim. At Yonkers he has a 32% win percentage, and is 67% first off the claim. At Pocono he has a 40% win, and 62% first off the claim. At Freehold he is at 27%, and 100% (2 for 2) wins first off the claim. So those who reported how great he did at Cal Expo seemed to have exaggerated. There is no doubt that his overall win% and win% first off the claim have skyrocketed since he moved east."
What I find most disturbing are the Pena supporters. Harness racing is dying faster than thoroughbred racing, yet, what I suspect is coming from a certain clique of trainers and owners, there are people going after Cohen and calling Pena criticizers witch hunters.
Between absurdly high track takeouts and insider drug info, how much chance does Joe Bettor have anymore? And with Super Trainers stealing purse monies, lots of incentives to new owners to try to make a buck in the game, is much depleted.
Sure, Pena might just be a great trainer who is getting extra lucky, but I like my chances of winning the Lotto Max jackpot next Friday more.
So what might Super Trainers be using these days?
One commenter, Joe, wrote this:
"The odds are 1 to 9 that the drug Pena is using to dope his horses with is Micera. It is a third-generation drug called CERA (continuous erythropoiesis receptor activator). It that lasts 6 times longer than DPO and 20 times longer than EPO. It requires only a simple ONCE-PER-MONTH subcutaneous injection. It is undetectable by urine-based doping controls. Micera is widely available in Europe, and has been approved in the USA. However, it is not yet commercially available in the USA due to a legal battle between Roche and Amgen. Certainly not a big problem to overcome."
There is a test for CERA, but I'm unaware if it has been implement at any North American tracks yet.
Of course, when it comes to undetectable drugs and blocks, synthetic cobra venom and snail venom always come up. There is a test for cobra venom, but it still hasn't made it to the North American labs. Here is an interesting video on the problem and the new test:
Venom blocks injuries which allows a horse to run through its soreness. This increases the likelihood of serious breakdowns during the race.
EPO/DPO/Micera are blood boosters. The use of these drugs have been known to have adverse long term effects on horses. Probably one of the reasons that if you pick up a Daily Racing Form from 2 years ago, many times, most of the horses entered aren't around today.
Super Trainers are one step ahead of the testing barn, and from recent conversations, I am starting to think that the real good stuff is most likely a narcotic, one that gets horses wound up like a crack addict trying to score more crack. Something that gets the horse so buzzed that they would run through a wall.
And who knows, more than one undetectable drug can be used at once, if undetectable, the more the merrier to the cheater. Bill Finley has been writing about banning Lasix for years, because according to research, Lasix is a very good mask of other drugs.
The other reason that Super Trainers are probably not using something known is the fact that there are many trainers who experiment all the time with concoctions that they hope won't test because of masking, in order to get an edge. Many do get caught. I'm sure the RMTC Recent Rulings section is full of such trainers.
Penalties just aren't high enough. Not high enough to deter many trainers from "taking a shot." I've always maintained that since we are dealing with both purse money and betting money, criminal charges should be laid in many instances. Why isn't illegal drug use on horses defrauding the public?
Of course, some might argue that if it isn't being tested for, it is legal. Obviously not, or there would be no detention barns.
If you have a tip regarding a cheater in Ontario, the Ontario Racing Commission and Crimestoppers have teamed up. To make a completely anonymous call: 1-800-222-TIPS
Now For Something Much Lighter
Funny blog piece at ThatsAmoreStable.net: Seven Racetrack Characters To Avoid
I left the following comment: "I’m Talking To Himself Guy, except all the talking goes on in my head.
Another guy to avoid is Chronic Rooting Guy: He roots for his horse from the far turn right to end even if his horse is backing through the field at the head of the stretch."
A lot more comments on the piece can be found at Pace Advantage.
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