Jeff Gural's Plan To Discourage The Retirement of Three Year Olds To Stud
Great idea. In fact, Gural have he may have got that from me. Unfortunately for thoroughbred fans, Gural is only talking harness here, and only talking three tracks.
No mention of broodmares. I think it is important that they don't stop racing too quickly either.
The two good things that will come from this for either harness or thoroughbred horses, is that good horses will have careers that can be followed longer, and it gives them a chance to develop a larger fan base, and secondly, it will lead to horses being bred for longevity instead of being bred to be a shooting star.
Trainer Lou Pena Barred At Yonkers
Two harness stories in a row, well they could be thoroughbred stories just the same, as the issues overlap in both industries.
Pena was barred for winning way way way too much. The controversy here is that whatever he is allegedly using to improve horses so drastically has not been found.
Tracks are private property, so one can be guilty until proven innocent. But this line of rule is hardly used.
As for his guilt, I think John Carter's comment at Standardbred Canada says it all:
"Lou Pena has this sport figured out. He knew the exact right speed to jog his horses thru the week. He figured out the exact right amount of hay and oats to feed his horses on a daily basis. He probably also knew the exact right amount of water to let them drink every day. This was pure genius on his part, no other trainer on the planet has been able to crack this formula and step up horses like they were given rocket fuel. No it is all technique."
The reality here is that both the thoroughbred and standardbred game doesn't do enough to deter cheating. Trainers get a slap on the wrist usually when caught. How about making cheating a criminal offense. Kinda like the riots in Britain, if I was vandalizing a business, I'd expect to be shot at, and until a couple of youths are shot or hurt real bad, there is nothing to stop it.
Super trainers are bad for the game. They not only create races that many handicappers won't play, but they also deter new owners from entering the game (if you are up against cheaters, you are mainly running for third or fourth money).
California Takeout Hike Is Hurting Handle
Del Mar's handle is shrinking (doesn't seem to be the economy judging by Saratoga's results so far), and the tracks want to reduce the takeout on at least a couple of exotics but the TOC isn't too into it. As long as the purses are artificially? higher, the horsemen have no urgency to do the right thing. But since the deal that was made last year which winds up giving the horsemen a higher percentage of what is bet, handle has fallen, and it is the tracks that have been getting clobbered. This is unsustainable, and the tracks know it. The horsemen may know it too, but until they are faced with purse cuts or date cuts, they will probably tend to stay away from fair negotiations regarding the future.
The Players Boycott is hurting them too. Probably not as much as they think, though I know at least 5 players who won't even open up California past performances, and my guess is that there are probably a lot more.
No, the decrease in handle has more to do with increased signal fees and takeout which create a lot less plays for value bettors, which causes them to be pickier and play less. Secondly, those who cash tickets are getting back less, and have less to churn with. This phenomenon gets only will get worse, as these players who don't last as long as they used to have less urgency in coming back to the track as often, and some actually quit over time.
As for the Players Boycott's effectiveness, well how many tracks have increased takeout since California decided to? NONE! How many have lowered takeout on at least one wager? Lots. Even Parx and Penn have got into the action of reducing takeouts. The Boycott is good for Horseplayers, and that means it is good for horse racing's future.
VEGAS NUMBERS IMPROVING
Is this a leading indicator that the economy is about to rebound? How come we aren't seeing the same thing in horse racing?
Maybe it has a lot to do with the US government coming down hard on online poker. These players need to go somewhere, they are after all gamblers.
Too bad horse racing doesn't have the visible winners poker did. Oh wait, the takeout is too damn high for that to happen.
There is very good reason to believe that some online poker players are actually getting their feet wet in online horse racing now. Again, the fact they won't last very long means that racing is missing a golden opportunity right now. And the learning curve is very steep as well.
The online poker players willing to give horse racing a shot though are probably smart enough to get started at ADWs that give rebates, as they are by nature, very price conscious. This fact may help cultivate the odd player into a long term Horseplayer. The industry can only hope.
Showing posts with label TOC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TOC. Show all posts
11 August 2011
28 January 2011
Did The TOC Pull A Fast One?
It may not have been the intention of the Thoroughbred Owners Of California (the TOC) to have pulled a fast one on the California racetracks, but the consequences sure makes them look like geniuses while California track ownership and management are looking like pretty bad right now.
The track owners and the Horsemen may have actually believed that bettors would be attracted to the move to dirt at Santa Anita, and that bigger purses would attract more horses and create larger fields which would increase handle attracting new money, more than enough to make up for the lost money in reduced churn (a bigger chunk of the existing pie, though their action will reduce the pie even more).
The reality is that it still costs too much to own a horse in California despite the purse hike, and not very many outfits are bringing horses to compete there.
Trainers charge relatively too much and vets don't help things either.
It is speculated on that trainers who charge high prices look for the smallest field they can find so as to keep their win percentages high enough in order to justify their prices (you can't have a 10% win percentage and have too many owners pay $125 in day rate). This culture doesn't change overnight.
The wild card is that there has been player push back, speeding up the effects of raising takeout. No one was anticipating this.
Despite handle being off, the Horsemen are ahead of the game and here is why the TOC is in no hurry to rescind the recent takeout hike:
In a nutshell, the takeout increase has caused blended rates in California to go from around 18.5% to 20.5%. However, the entire increase now goes to the Horsemen.
Out of State signal fees could range from 3% to brick and mortar locations to much more when it comes to what ADWs pay. It was admitted that California racetracks could not get the full increase from out of state bet takers, but only a little more than half. Still, if the average signal fee was 6% last year, it means that they are now getting 7%, but when you look at it closer, it means that purses now get 4% on average instead of 3% of every dollar bet on their product from out of state. using this example, which means an increase of 33% over last year (again, I'm not sure of the exact numbers, but this is probably very close).
Domestically, from in-state bets, they now receive anywhere between 25-33% more over last year on average. Tracks, meanwhile receive the exact same percentage on every wager, if everything that has been made public is true.
In layman's terms, this means that for every thousand dollars bet last year, the track and horsemen may have received $50 each on average (again, this is an educated guess). However, now horsemen receive about $65 on every $1000 wagered, while tracks still get $50.
If handle is down 15% because of a combination of the Players Boycott and less churning created by higher takeouts, it means that in relative terms, tracks are now receiving $42.50 on every thousand bet, while Horsemen are still receiving $55.25 per every thousand bet (in adjusted dollars). So even with a 15% drop in handle, something devastating for the track, Horsemen purse accounts will be up by 10%.
Now, if you go a step further, the California racetracks could have been actually up this year if not for the boycott and reduced churn. Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds early success this year may mean that handle might be on the way to recovery. So California track owners are not only down whatever they are down this year, but down what other tracks are up as well.
Unless handle drops at least 25% gross over last year, the TOC is unlikely to be motivated to rescind the takeout hike, unless the tracks are hurt so much that they are forced to cut back dates even more (they are currently running only four days versus five at Santa Anita right now), or even worse, threaten to close down. The tracks may have to run only 3 days a week (to cut expenses down), less races (more per day), and a hope for fuller fields to attract more betting per race.
Both Del Mar and Hollywood Park have a foot in the grave (well at least a big toe) to begin with.
How can this mess be fixed immediately?
The TOC has to be persuaded to look into the crystal ball. It is inevitable that things will be a lot worse for horsemen, and whatever tracks remain standing in California a year or two out. There is zero evidence to show that higher takeout leads to more money bottom line for Horsemen and tracks.
The tracks have now changed percentages on net takeout, and the TOC would be ill-advised to not consider this when negotiating. The cut on net profits need to be readdressed. If the TOC and tracks are reasonable, the Horsemen should now aim to receive between 55-60% of net takeout received on the California product.
This change would be good going forward. As there would now be motivation to make the most net takeout money, which means that the track is free to seek optimal takeout rates.
If blended rates don't come back down to at least where they were in California, California racing is at risk of losing Horseplayers who will never return. Most Horseplayers who are boycotting are not interested in anything but a return to the old rates before they will consider betting another race there.
C'mon guys and Bo, I want the game to grow. Get together and make it happen.
WOODBINE HAS A SIMILAR IMPEDIMENT
Woodbine's blended takeout rate is approximately just over 21%. 1.3% goes towards taxes. That leaves $200 on every $1000 bet to be split between horsemen and tracks. However, Horsemen get an additional 2% on all bets (4% on triactors), which means that on every $1000 bet on track, Woodbine gets $89 while Horsemen get around $111 on average.
If Woodbine drops takeout, the Horsemen get even more of a percentage on net takeout. The HBPA and Woodbine should get together and try to help grow the game, by changing this deal and make it a percentage of net takeout, not a percentage of what is bet. A 55-45% split in favor of the Horsemen on wagers made through Woodbine would not change things one bit, except it gives Woodbine the ability to experiment with lower takeouts.
Of course, if Woodbine could find another way to fund the 2-4% the Horsemen gets, they would be free to experiment with lower takeouts as well.
FORT ERIE SAVED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE YEAR
Not very many people knew that Fort Erie was even in trouble until early this week, when it came to racing in 2011. They supposedly were good to go for 3 years, but they were not able to make payments for the increased payment to Nordic ($650,000 this year and next, compared to $100,000 last year) and the new HST on time. And they obviously didn't make enough last year to overcome the concern that they could actually come up short this year, and they realized that there is a question of who pays for the shortfall if it happens?
Details are not out, but it looks like a deal was carved out that does not place the indemnify the EDTC (the current managers of the track).
Still, if they think there is a hope in hell to grow a business with a 26.2% track takeout on exactors and doubles, whoever is guaranteeing the losses is guaranteed to be out money.
CLICK TO LISTEN TO A RADIO INTERVIEW OF PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER AND HANA VP MIKE MALONEY
It starts at the 17 minute mark. You might learn a thing or two.
ADVERTISEMENT
Horse racing isn't about to lower takeout collectively anytime soon. It is a good thing that many astute Horseplayers have some options.
HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM offers everyday Horseplayers industry high Player Reward Bonuses.
INTRODUCTORY OFFER FROM HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM
BET $80 GET $40 DEPOSITED INTO YOUR ACCOUNT*
Wager at least $80 in total, win or lose, and you will get $40 deposited into your account. You will also start receiving the industry high Player Reward Bonuses daily as soon as you start wagering. Note: To earn the $40 Bonus you must wager at least $80 in total within 7 days of making your initial deposit.
CLICK LOGO TO OPEN A FREE ACCOUNT
Why Horseplayersbet.com?:
* Industry High Player Reward Bonuses added to your account daily
* User friendly betting interface making wagering easy
* FREE LIVE VIDEOS
* FREE RACE REPLAYS
* Wager Online or by Phone
* Great customer service
* 100% Parimutuel
* No membership or wagering fees
* Green Dot & PINpocket fees rebated (deposits of $120 or more)
* No fees on debit or credit card deposits of $100 or more.
* Bet cancellation capabilities
HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM, WHERE HORSEPLAYERS COME FIRST. SIGN UP TODAY AND SEE WHY HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM IS ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING US BASED ADWS
Player Reward Bonuses could be the difference to you as to whether you win in the long run playing horses or lose. The better the rewards, the more of a chance you have to beat the game. Sure, you still need skill and luck as well to succeed, but at HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM at least you have a fighting chance. And one thing is for sure, your money will last longer because of the PLAYER REWARD BONUSES you receive.
The track owners and the Horsemen may have actually believed that bettors would be attracted to the move to dirt at Santa Anita, and that bigger purses would attract more horses and create larger fields which would increase handle attracting new money, more than enough to make up for the lost money in reduced churn (a bigger chunk of the existing pie, though their action will reduce the pie even more).
The reality is that it still costs too much to own a horse in California despite the purse hike, and not very many outfits are bringing horses to compete there.
Trainers charge relatively too much and vets don't help things either.
It is speculated on that trainers who charge high prices look for the smallest field they can find so as to keep their win percentages high enough in order to justify their prices (you can't have a 10% win percentage and have too many owners pay $125 in day rate). This culture doesn't change overnight.
The wild card is that there has been player push back, speeding up the effects of raising takeout. No one was anticipating this.
Despite handle being off, the Horsemen are ahead of the game and here is why the TOC is in no hurry to rescind the recent takeout hike:
In a nutshell, the takeout increase has caused blended rates in California to go from around 18.5% to 20.5%. However, the entire increase now goes to the Horsemen.
Out of State signal fees could range from 3% to brick and mortar locations to much more when it comes to what ADWs pay. It was admitted that California racetracks could not get the full increase from out of state bet takers, but only a little more than half. Still, if the average signal fee was 6% last year, it means that they are now getting 7%, but when you look at it closer, it means that purses now get 4% on average instead of 3% of every dollar bet on their product from out of state. using this example, which means an increase of 33% over last year (again, I'm not sure of the exact numbers, but this is probably very close).
Domestically, from in-state bets, they now receive anywhere between 25-33% more over last year on average. Tracks, meanwhile receive the exact same percentage on every wager, if everything that has been made public is true.
In layman's terms, this means that for every thousand dollars bet last year, the track and horsemen may have received $50 each on average (again, this is an educated guess). However, now horsemen receive about $65 on every $1000 wagered, while tracks still get $50.
If handle is down 15% because of a combination of the Players Boycott and less churning created by higher takeouts, it means that in relative terms, tracks are now receiving $42.50 on every thousand bet, while Horsemen are still receiving $55.25 per every thousand bet (in adjusted dollars). So even with a 15% drop in handle, something devastating for the track, Horsemen purse accounts will be up by 10%.
Now, if you go a step further, the California racetracks could have been actually up this year if not for the boycott and reduced churn. Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds early success this year may mean that handle might be on the way to recovery. So California track owners are not only down whatever they are down this year, but down what other tracks are up as well.
Unless handle drops at least 25% gross over last year, the TOC is unlikely to be motivated to rescind the takeout hike, unless the tracks are hurt so much that they are forced to cut back dates even more (they are currently running only four days versus five at Santa Anita right now), or even worse, threaten to close down. The tracks may have to run only 3 days a week (to cut expenses down), less races (more per day), and a hope for fuller fields to attract more betting per race.
Both Del Mar and Hollywood Park have a foot in the grave (well at least a big toe) to begin with.
How can this mess be fixed immediately?
The TOC has to be persuaded to look into the crystal ball. It is inevitable that things will be a lot worse for horsemen, and whatever tracks remain standing in California a year or two out. There is zero evidence to show that higher takeout leads to more money bottom line for Horsemen and tracks.
The tracks have now changed percentages on net takeout, and the TOC would be ill-advised to not consider this when negotiating. The cut on net profits need to be readdressed. If the TOC and tracks are reasonable, the Horsemen should now aim to receive between 55-60% of net takeout received on the California product.
This change would be good going forward. As there would now be motivation to make the most net takeout money, which means that the track is free to seek optimal takeout rates.
If blended rates don't come back down to at least where they were in California, California racing is at risk of losing Horseplayers who will never return. Most Horseplayers who are boycotting are not interested in anything but a return to the old rates before they will consider betting another race there.
C'mon guys and Bo, I want the game to grow. Get together and make it happen.
WOODBINE HAS A SIMILAR IMPEDIMENT
Woodbine's blended takeout rate is approximately just over 21%. 1.3% goes towards taxes. That leaves $200 on every $1000 bet to be split between horsemen and tracks. However, Horsemen get an additional 2% on all bets (4% on triactors), which means that on every $1000 bet on track, Woodbine gets $89 while Horsemen get around $111 on average.
If Woodbine drops takeout, the Horsemen get even more of a percentage on net takeout. The HBPA and Woodbine should get together and try to help grow the game, by changing this deal and make it a percentage of net takeout, not a percentage of what is bet. A 55-45% split in favor of the Horsemen on wagers made through Woodbine would not change things one bit, except it gives Woodbine the ability to experiment with lower takeouts.
Of course, if Woodbine could find another way to fund the 2-4% the Horsemen gets, they would be free to experiment with lower takeouts as well.
FORT ERIE SAVED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE YEAR
Not very many people knew that Fort Erie was even in trouble until early this week, when it came to racing in 2011. They supposedly were good to go for 3 years, but they were not able to make payments for the increased payment to Nordic ($650,000 this year and next, compared to $100,000 last year) and the new HST on time. And they obviously didn't make enough last year to overcome the concern that they could actually come up short this year, and they realized that there is a question of who pays for the shortfall if it happens?
Details are not out, but it looks like a deal was carved out that does not place the indemnify the EDTC (the current managers of the track).
Still, if they think there is a hope in hell to grow a business with a 26.2% track takeout on exactors and doubles, whoever is guaranteeing the losses is guaranteed to be out money.
CLICK TO LISTEN TO A RADIO INTERVIEW OF PROFESSIONAL GAMBLER AND HANA VP MIKE MALONEY
It starts at the 17 minute mark. You might learn a thing or two.
ADVERTISEMENT
Horse racing isn't about to lower takeout collectively anytime soon. It is a good thing that many astute Horseplayers have some options.
HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM offers everyday Horseplayers industry high Player Reward Bonuses.
INTRODUCTORY OFFER FROM HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM
BET $80 GET $40 DEPOSITED INTO YOUR ACCOUNT*
Wager at least $80 in total, win or lose, and you will get $40 deposited into your account. You will also start receiving the industry high Player Reward Bonuses daily as soon as you start wagering. Note: To earn the $40 Bonus you must wager at least $80 in total within 7 days of making your initial deposit.
CLICK LOGO TO OPEN A FREE ACCOUNT
Why Horseplayersbet.com?:
* Industry High Player Reward Bonuses added to your account daily
* User friendly betting interface making wagering easy
* FREE LIVE VIDEOS
* FREE RACE REPLAYS
* Wager Online or by Phone
* Great customer service
* 100% Parimutuel
* No membership or wagering fees
* Green Dot & PINpocket fees rebated (deposits of $120 or more)
* No fees on debit or credit card deposits of $100 or more.
* Bet cancellation capabilities
HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM, WHERE HORSEPLAYERS COME FIRST. SIGN UP TODAY AND SEE WHY HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM IS ONE OF THE FASTEST GROWING US BASED ADWS
Player Reward Bonuses could be the difference to you as to whether you win in the long run playing horses or lose. The better the rewards, the more of a chance you have to beat the game. Sure, you still need skill and luck as well to succeed, but at HORSEPLAYERSBET.COM at least you have a fighting chance. And one thing is for sure, your money will last longer because of the PLAYER REWARD BONUSES you receive.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)