I have been offering my advice to a few individuals over the years when it comes to claiming horses at Woodbine and Fort Erie. I'm right a lot, and I'm also wrong sometimes.
Today in the fifth at Woodbine, there is a horse who definitely looks like she a worth taking. I want to also mention that I wouldn't be writing this post if any of my connections were getting a claim slip ready.
She Runs On A Diesel. $20,000 race 5 Woodbine.
Pros
Ontario sired.
Lightly raced.
First race was an above average speed figure (for 20,000 maiden fillies) against a slight speed bias. The time of the race was good for the day.
Galloped out great. Watch the replay at HPI May 15th race 9 or look her up by name at Cal Racing. She was last after around half a furlong, so she is easy to find.
Going two turn after a five furlong debut. This means she should be physically OK at least, and because she is radically changing distances, she may come up short and save the condition which means more potential money for a new owner. There are at least four horses who can get the distance in, and beat her just on conditioning today.
Workout pattern doesn't show any breaks before her first race and workouts have been slightly above average.
Very well bred on the dam side: she is out of a half to Devil His Due (who made close to $4 million). This should give her residual dam value, even though breeding game is crap right now. There has been no mention of this fact in Bannon's Journal for the horse's first two races:
A 3 year old filly that can go long is the best type of horse to own for upside. Ontario sired maiden and nw2 run for $62,000+ purses.
Cons
Trainer is high percentage this year (though he usually is an average trainer). Why is she running so low after the first race? Owner may just want to win. Does the owner know her breeding on the dam side?
Dam only threw one other horse (she looks to have a problem foaling) who was unraced, but produced a winner. Is she worth $20,000 as a dam prospect?
$20,000 is a big risk for small outfits. Though she'll probably be able to clean up at Fort Erie if she goes down hill from that first race, if she can run again after today that is:)
There may be a shake for her. If more than a couple of people see the same things, these type of obvious claims usually wind up to be losing propositions.
Sire is nondescript, but then again most Ontario sires are. The money is great if she improves even in the slightest.
If I was independently wealthy, I certainly would take a shot on her. Of course, the trainer would have to give her a good look before dropping the slip (no interest in the breeding game right now). If she has the looks of a bad knee or a bow, etc., rip the slip up, they'll be others to claim.
BELMONT PREDICTION
Lots of horses who are being asked to go a mile and a half without racing for at least 5 weeks. I don't like that angle. This fact makes the race Mine That Bird's to lose. If he shows up, he wins. Very simple. I like him with Preakness surprise horse Flying Private to coast into second. And I'll stick to Preakness graduates for the triactor and throw in long shot Luv Gov.
Free PDF's from TrackMaster
Ajax Downs opens up tomorrow. They have revamped their web site. If you decide to check out the site, cover your ears.
Showing posts with label Mine That Bird. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mine That Bird. Show all posts
5 June 2009
16 May 2009
Rachel Alexandra: Too Many Ways For Her To Lose Today
No denying that Rachel Alexandra is a super filly. No denying that the Preakness field is pretty weak. Still, Rachel Alexander will not be worth the price today, and I can see her off the board.
Here is what I don't like: She is racing back a bit too early off a lifetime high speed figure. She is a filly coming off a great race. Her post is only going to hurt her. She will be chasing boys this time, though the boys are inferior to boys from years prior, she won't be chasing inferior girls this time out. In other words, she won't be superior enough to stalk from the chasing position....she'll be chasing, and that isn't the best position today as the race is full of chasers.
Big Drama, from the one hole, is who Rachel will be chasing. Big Drama is making his first start in 40 odd days, and I expect him to get an unchallenged lead for around 4 furlongs, but I think he'll be forced to exert himself too early from there, and he is expected to be short on fitness today for the full distance. Still, when he picks it up, it will take a toll on Rachel and the other lesser chasers, setting the race up for a sustained pace horse.
Mine That Bird has bounce written all over him. After destroying the field in the Derby, I don't expect the same peak effort today. Though he will be coming from the perfect position, I look for him to maybe be third or fourth today.
Musket Man has yet to be off the board in 7 lifetime starts. It is a bit concerning that he is making his 6th start this year already, but he just seems to show up every time he runs. His jockey knows him by now, and he looks like he can handle any distance.
Luv Gov is coming off a maiden win with the same type of great trip The Bird had on Derby day. He was a perennial maiden too, before that win. Speed numbers look inferior, and that usually does matter, though it didn't in the Derby.
Friesan Fire is making his second start off a bit of a layoff. He ran predictably (by me) disappointing in the Derby, and supposedly grabbed himself. How he is able to run back so quick after losing part of his foot in a major race is beyond me. I wouldn't be surprised if he is scratched today. If he runs, I'll just watch him. If he runs good, I'll just turn the page.
Terrain looks like he'll enjoy the distance, and he looks like he has a future, and the pace will favor him today. But the 35 days off means that he shouldn't be good enough to hit the board.
Papa Clem looks to have good tactical speed. If he can run back to the Arkansas Derby he has a fighting chance today. He will be compromised a bit if it is a deep closers track. His post could be the key to him being right there.
General Quarters is making his 13 lifetime start and 13th race in the same racing cycle. This is a work horse. You can take a black magic marker and eliminate his last running line, as his post and the trip killed his chances. His running style is perfect for today's race. I think his preferred distance would be a mile and a sixteenth or a mile and an eighth. But he does represent a value play if his odds are close or higher than his morning line.
Pioneer of the Isle ran better than I expected in the Derby. He can handle the dirt. But I still think he is a few lengths inferior to today's main contenders. He will probably wait for Rachel to make her move before he tries to fire today. I just see him bidding and hanging today.
Flying Private had no chance in the Derby thanks to his trip, but his best race to date was on the poly, and a repeat of that race wouldn't win today. Can't see here.
Take The Points is another layoff horse (42 days). Other than that, I thought he was an actual contender for the Derby this year at one time. Looks like he may force Rachel out an extra path in the first turn, but figures to chase and pack it in.
Tone It Down is the home team horse. I've seen these types do well against inferior type fields in the past at long odds. He doesn't have the speed to be on the lead, and it wouldn't surprise me if he is seventh or eighth around the backstretch. He is an improving sort, but when taking the post into consideration and a compromised running style, I'm not expecting much.
Rachel Alexandra will be a beaten favorite most probably. I've already explained why.
My top four:
General Quarters
Musket Man
Mine That Bird
Papa Clem
Remember, I'm a value handicapper. I'm pretty much making a statement today that Rachel Alexandra does not represent value.
Chantal Sutherland has given Mike Smith some tips on how to ride The Bird:
I wonder if Chantal would rather have that first line read "rider of MTBird and former girlfriend."
Lots of talk on the blogosphere this week of the negative effect that slots have had on horse racing growth. My two cents:
People only have so much disposable cash, and the "dummy slot" bettor of today, was yesterdays dumb money at the race track. Sure, they lose more per capita on slots than they did on horse racing in the past, but racing hasn't been able to make up for the loss of the dumb money bettors. And more importantly, for today's player, armed with a racing form or computer generated selections, now for the most part, it is good handicappers versus real good handicappers, who compete against each other at a slightly higher takeout than what was out there 15-20 years ago. So it is much easier for good players now to be discouraged from betting, because it is so difficult to win, much more difficult than 20 years ago. This causes many to just leave. Because there aren't very many winners (especially who do so without rebate), there is no buzz from winners. This means there is no lure to newbie gamblers to try horse racing because the game can be beaten, like there is in sports betting, or poker or exchange betting.
One more thing. John Q Smith goes to the track with $200. On average it takes him $1000 worth of bets to go broke. The track winds up splitting the $200, with, depending on jurisdiction, about $90 going to the track, $90 going to purses, and $20 going to taxation etc.
When John Q Smith goes to the slots with $200. On average it takes $2000 worth of betting to go broke. The time it takes to lose on either horse racing and slots is probably around the same depending on how the individual bets. But in the end, the track winds up with $20, and the purses wind up with $20.
To a racetrack, it would have been more prudent to convert these potential slot players to horseplayers before slots came along. Even if they could convert 1 in three or four, they would wind up further ahead. But they didn't because they refused to compete by not making the game more affordable when they could have.
See also Slots Are Poison For Growing Demand In Racing and Slot Machines Spreading Disease
Here is what I don't like: She is racing back a bit too early off a lifetime high speed figure. She is a filly coming off a great race. Her post is only going to hurt her. She will be chasing boys this time, though the boys are inferior to boys from years prior, she won't be chasing inferior girls this time out. In other words, she won't be superior enough to stalk from the chasing position....she'll be chasing, and that isn't the best position today as the race is full of chasers.
Big Drama, from the one hole, is who Rachel will be chasing. Big Drama is making his first start in 40 odd days, and I expect him to get an unchallenged lead for around 4 furlongs, but I think he'll be forced to exert himself too early from there, and he is expected to be short on fitness today for the full distance. Still, when he picks it up, it will take a toll on Rachel and the other lesser chasers, setting the race up for a sustained pace horse.
Mine That Bird has bounce written all over him. After destroying the field in the Derby, I don't expect the same peak effort today. Though he will be coming from the perfect position, I look for him to maybe be third or fourth today.
Musket Man has yet to be off the board in 7 lifetime starts. It is a bit concerning that he is making his 6th start this year already, but he just seems to show up every time he runs. His jockey knows him by now, and he looks like he can handle any distance.
Luv Gov is coming off a maiden win with the same type of great trip The Bird had on Derby day. He was a perennial maiden too, before that win. Speed numbers look inferior, and that usually does matter, though it didn't in the Derby.
Friesan Fire is making his second start off a bit of a layoff. He ran predictably (by me) disappointing in the Derby, and supposedly grabbed himself. How he is able to run back so quick after losing part of his foot in a major race is beyond me. I wouldn't be surprised if he is scratched today. If he runs, I'll just watch him. If he runs good, I'll just turn the page.
Terrain looks like he'll enjoy the distance, and he looks like he has a future, and the pace will favor him today. But the 35 days off means that he shouldn't be good enough to hit the board.
Papa Clem looks to have good tactical speed. If he can run back to the Arkansas Derby he has a fighting chance today. He will be compromised a bit if it is a deep closers track. His post could be the key to him being right there.
General Quarters is making his 13 lifetime start and 13th race in the same racing cycle. This is a work horse. You can take a black magic marker and eliminate his last running line, as his post and the trip killed his chances. His running style is perfect for today's race. I think his preferred distance would be a mile and a sixteenth or a mile and an eighth. But he does represent a value play if his odds are close or higher than his morning line.
Pioneer of the Isle ran better than I expected in the Derby. He can handle the dirt. But I still think he is a few lengths inferior to today's main contenders. He will probably wait for Rachel to make her move before he tries to fire today. I just see him bidding and hanging today.
Flying Private had no chance in the Derby thanks to his trip, but his best race to date was on the poly, and a repeat of that race wouldn't win today. Can't see here.
Take The Points is another layoff horse (42 days). Other than that, I thought he was an actual contender for the Derby this year at one time. Looks like he may force Rachel out an extra path in the first turn, but figures to chase and pack it in.
Tone It Down is the home team horse. I've seen these types do well against inferior type fields in the past at long odds. He doesn't have the speed to be on the lead, and it wouldn't surprise me if he is seventh or eighth around the backstretch. He is an improving sort, but when taking the post into consideration and a compromised running style, I'm not expecting much.
Rachel Alexandra will be a beaten favorite most probably. I've already explained why.
My top four:
General Quarters
Musket Man
Mine That Bird
Papa Clem
Remember, I'm a value handicapper. I'm pretty much making a statement today that Rachel Alexandra does not represent value.
Chantal Sutherland has given Mike Smith some tips on how to ride The Bird:
"(Talk with Chantal Sutherland, girlfriend and former rider of MTBird) -- Actually, I have. She's given me a lot of insight about him. She told me he's really rider-friendly. He'll do anything you want him to do. One thing she did tell me which is kind of a key and I saw it in the Derby is when he first leaves there he might want to go with you but once you let him know that's not what you want, then he seems to settle really well. So I should have no problem with that."
I wonder if Chantal would rather have that first line read "rider of MTBird and former girlfriend."
Lots of talk on the blogosphere this week of the negative effect that slots have had on horse racing growth. My two cents:
People only have so much disposable cash, and the "dummy slot" bettor of today, was yesterdays dumb money at the race track. Sure, they lose more per capita on slots than they did on horse racing in the past, but racing hasn't been able to make up for the loss of the dumb money bettors. And more importantly, for today's player, armed with a racing form or computer generated selections, now for the most part, it is good handicappers versus real good handicappers, who compete against each other at a slightly higher takeout than what was out there 15-20 years ago. So it is much easier for good players now to be discouraged from betting, because it is so difficult to win, much more difficult than 20 years ago. This causes many to just leave. Because there aren't very many winners (especially who do so without rebate), there is no buzz from winners. This means there is no lure to newbie gamblers to try horse racing because the game can be beaten, like there is in sports betting, or poker or exchange betting.
One more thing. John Q Smith goes to the track with $200. On average it takes him $1000 worth of bets to go broke. The track winds up splitting the $200, with, depending on jurisdiction, about $90 going to the track, $90 going to purses, and $20 going to taxation etc.
When John Q Smith goes to the slots with $200. On average it takes $2000 worth of betting to go broke. The time it takes to lose on either horse racing and slots is probably around the same depending on how the individual bets. But in the end, the track winds up with $20, and the purses wind up with $20.
To a racetrack, it would have been more prudent to convert these potential slot players to horseplayers before slots came along. Even if they could convert 1 in three or four, they would wind up further ahead. But they didn't because they refused to compete by not making the game more affordable when they could have.
See also Slots Are Poison For Growing Demand In Racing and Slot Machines Spreading Disease
8 May 2009
HANA's Next Pool Party and Rachel Vs. The Bird
HANA's Pool Party
We had a tough decision this week but finally agreed that we will do our damage at Prairie Meadows this week. We are asking our members to play the 6th race at Prairie Meadows on Saturday night (the race goes off at around a quarter to 10 EST). Prairie Meadows is the 23rd rated race track on HANA's list, which is above average. The negative is that I don't think HPI has Prairie Meadows on the menu Saturday night, so Canadians who don't have an account with a US ADW that takes Canadian customers will most likely wind up getting shut out this week. UPDATE: Apparently Prairie Meadows is on the HPI menu tonight. That is, if you live in the GTA. In the Niagara Region, according to the menu I saw, Prairie Meadows isn't there.
Note to Woodbine: If you want HANA to feature Woodbine as a Pool Party race, you have two choices. Drop the takeout on triactors to a maximum of 25% and/or stop ripping off customers by ramping up the takeout on bets that have lower takeouts. Announce the change, and we will start looking at your track.
Free past performances and more for the 6th Race at Prairie Meadows on Saturday night are available by clicking here. Thanks again to Craig from Trackmaster, and CJ from Pacefigures.
Support HANA by betting the race any way you like.
Update: Free Thorograph for Saturday night's race. You can access it here.
Pull The Pocket has an interesting post up showing hard stats that prove horse racing doesn't attract the younger crowd.
The younger crowd is gambling, but they are playing where they have a chance to win in the long run.
Woodbine Bias Report The inside just doesn't seem like the place to be, and it now looks like it is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy, jockeys who think they have a chance at winning, are not placing themselves on the wood.
Interesting Tidbit
In today's seventh at Woodbine, there is a horse named Jovial Jill. She is related to Derby winner Mine That Bird on the dam's side. Mine That Bird's second dam is a half sister, to Jovial Jill's second dam.
Speaking of Mine That Bird, I still think he is going to be 1st or 2nd favorite come Preakness post time. The question right now is who is going to be the jockey. As almost everyone knows, Rachel Alexandra, who wound up with a better Beyer than the Bird last race, was sold. New trainer too. The questions are out there now. Will Rachel Alexandra get to show her stuff in the Preakness? If she goes, who will Borel choose? Will Asmussen even give the call to Borel? If Borel gets the mount, will Chantal Sutherland be considered to get her mount back on the bird?
Ontario Racing Commission suspends vet for 10 years
Glenn Johnston allegedly wrote prescriptions for DPO. The ORC release.
Tampa Bay Downs Betting Scandal
An indictment was finally filed against a jockey and a couple of bettors regarding alleged race fixing at Tampa Bay Downs and the now defunct Great Lakes Downs. Read more at the Paulick Report.
Who Is Maggi Moss?
A lot of people who read up on horse racing may just skim over stories regarding owners, and their background. I'm guilty of this myself many times. I recently came across this excellent video on Maggi Moss. Well worth watching:
We had a tough decision this week but finally agreed that we will do our damage at Prairie Meadows this week. We are asking our members to play the 6th race at Prairie Meadows on Saturday night (the race goes off at around a quarter to 10 EST). Prairie Meadows is the 23rd rated race track on HANA's list, which is above average. The negative is that I don't think HPI has Prairie Meadows on the menu Saturday night, so Canadians who don't have an account with a US ADW that takes Canadian customers will most likely wind up getting shut out this week. UPDATE: Apparently Prairie Meadows is on the HPI menu tonight. That is, if you live in the GTA. In the Niagara Region, according to the menu I saw, Prairie Meadows isn't there.
Note to Woodbine: If you want HANA to feature Woodbine as a Pool Party race, you have two choices. Drop the takeout on triactors to a maximum of 25% and/or stop ripping off customers by ramping up the takeout on bets that have lower takeouts. Announce the change, and we will start looking at your track.
Free past performances and more for the 6th Race at Prairie Meadows on Saturday night are available by clicking here. Thanks again to Craig from Trackmaster, and CJ from Pacefigures.
Support HANA by betting the race any way you like.
Update: Free Thorograph for Saturday night's race. You can access it here.
Pull The Pocket has an interesting post up showing hard stats that prove horse racing doesn't attract the younger crowd.
The younger crowd is gambling, but they are playing where they have a chance to win in the long run.
Woodbine Bias Report The inside just doesn't seem like the place to be, and it now looks like it is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy, jockeys who think they have a chance at winning, are not placing themselves on the wood.
Interesting Tidbit
In today's seventh at Woodbine, there is a horse named Jovial Jill. She is related to Derby winner Mine That Bird on the dam's side. Mine That Bird's second dam is a half sister, to Jovial Jill's second dam.
Speaking of Mine That Bird, I still think he is going to be 1st or 2nd favorite come Preakness post time. The question right now is who is going to be the jockey. As almost everyone knows, Rachel Alexandra, who wound up with a better Beyer than the Bird last race, was sold. New trainer too. The questions are out there now. Will Rachel Alexandra get to show her stuff in the Preakness? If she goes, who will Borel choose? Will Asmussen even give the call to Borel? If Borel gets the mount, will Chantal Sutherland be considered to get her mount back on the bird?
Ontario Racing Commission suspends vet for 10 years
Glenn Johnston allegedly wrote prescriptions for DPO. The ORC release.
Tampa Bay Downs Betting Scandal
An indictment was finally filed against a jockey and a couple of bettors regarding alleged race fixing at Tampa Bay Downs and the now defunct Great Lakes Downs. Read more at the Paulick Report.
Who Is Maggi Moss?
A lot of people who read up on horse racing may just skim over stories regarding owners, and their background. I'm guilty of this myself many times. I recently came across this excellent video on Maggi Moss. Well worth watching:
4 May 2009
I'm Just Putting It Out There
I took a little a lot of heat on the Pace Advantage Forum for making the following post:
So far the thread is into the 5th page and has had over 2400 views (I'm pretty sure that it counts repeat visitors as a new view).
I went on to explain why, but there are many commenters who still don't get my point:
There is a lot of speculation that at the very least Mine That Bird had something that is not tested for inside his bloodstream that made him move like a monster on Saturday. But it is 2009, and that is the state of horse racing.
Honestly, if I made a quick pick bet and Mine That Bird was on the ticket, I would have canceled the ticket, even if it was a superfecta, and Mine That Bird was in the four hole. His speed numbers weren't high enough going in to win a Non Winners other than Maiden or Claiming race.
He was the only gelding. Was it training in the New Mexico atmosphere that gave him an edge? Did the new Kentucky steroid rule turn the race into a complete crap shoot?
No denying that Calvin Bo-Rail was the best jockey for that particular course on that particular day by a country mile.
Jennifer Morrison reports on her blog that Chantal Sutherland (who rode the horse to victories last year) was considered until Bo-Rail became available. According to Down The Stretch Newspaper, the offer from Playboy that Sutherland refused would have gone up considerably if she just had a Derby mount, let alone won the Derby (which I think would have happened if she had the mount, as Sutherland seems to have a good eye for the track bias). So we can blame the trainer (or whoever made the decision on the jockey) for preventing Sutherland from being in Playboy, for now.
Hopeful Playboy won't make an offer to Calvin Keebler Borel. I know I won't be buying that issue.
Another thing that bugs me is anyone who claims that Mine That Bird is a Canadian. He isn't. Never was. Never will be. With all the money that is allotted to Ontario breds, it was a crying shame that he won the Sovereign Award, but he was better than all the Canadian breds and since he ran here at least three times, he qualified to win. He is a Kentucky bred. A US bred horse, nothing more, nothing less.
I will fairly add though that on his dam's side, especially his third dam, there is a lot of Canadian blood. Looks like a few Display Farm horses are at least related to the Bird.
PETA must be very upset that no horses died in the Derby this year. I'm surprised they don't go after the winner's name. I'm sure they aren't fans of throwing birds into mines to see if there is enough oxygen for humans.
This win by Mine That Bird is going to hurt the sales prices of high end horses for the foreseeable future. The low end horses may get a boost, as buyers see that they don't have to spend much to have a future millionaire. This win, coupled with Big Brown's win last year shows that it is much more prudent to spend a premium after a horse has established himself, at least somewhat. The Green Monkey days are gone.
Finally, it is my contention that after that 7 length Derby win, barring a positive, the Bird should be the favourite or 2nd choice at the very least in the Preakness. Many on Pace Advantage adamantly disagree with me on that. But I just can't see how he won't.
Peter from Family Guy agrees with me on the Preakness. Here is his tip:
KUDOS TO WOODBINE AND THE SCORE
It was nice to see Fort Erie on the Score on Sunday, instead of Belmont. I'm hoping nobody complains. Showing Fort Erie as the second track is the right thing to do in order to help promote horse racing in Ontario.
But it didn't help the betting unfortunately. Less than $400,000 was bet in total at Fort Erie on Sunday (I think the $35 million sales price is a tad too high now. Oh wait, I always thought that). I don't ever remember seeing such a low total in recent history.
I know what didn't help. Fort Erie stopped taking US dollar bets at the track. Patrons from the US have to convert to our funny money before they make a wager on track now. Is it any wonder that Fort Erie is big trouble. And by looking at those betting numbers, I hate to say it, but the end is near.
I know their high takeouts (they are the second worst in North America) are a huge turn off to many bettors, but they need to stop racing on Sunday, and only race when they are not up against any significant competition. Switch to Wednesdays. Let players tap out at the Fort before Woodbine races.
If Mine That Bird gets a positive, it will be the best thing that could happen to horse racing.
So far the thread is into the 5th page and has had over 2400 views (I'm pretty sure that it counts repeat visitors as a new view).
I went on to explain why, but there are many commenters who still don't get my point:
Drugs are plaguing the sport and regulators have been very slow to fix it.
Hey, I know that a positive would hurt the game short term, but until drugs are out of the game, the game will be broken.
And again, I'm not inferring here that the horse will get a positive. The horse could have been on the best part of the track, the hardest part of the track, and saved the most ground, and the pace of the race helped him too.
Funny things happen in the slop. Again, I've already read many comments from people expecting a positive. I'm not expecting a positive, but wouldn't be shocked just the same.
There is a lot of speculation that at the very least Mine That Bird had something that is not tested for inside his bloodstream that made him move like a monster on Saturday. But it is 2009, and that is the state of horse racing.
Honestly, if I made a quick pick bet and Mine That Bird was on the ticket, I would have canceled the ticket, even if it was a superfecta, and Mine That Bird was in the four hole. His speed numbers weren't high enough going in to win a Non Winners other than Maiden or Claiming race.
He was the only gelding. Was it training in the New Mexico atmosphere that gave him an edge? Did the new Kentucky steroid rule turn the race into a complete crap shoot?
No denying that Calvin Bo-Rail was the best jockey for that particular course on that particular day by a country mile.
Jennifer Morrison reports on her blog that Chantal Sutherland (who rode the horse to victories last year) was considered until Bo-Rail became available. According to Down The Stretch Newspaper, the offer from Playboy that Sutherland refused would have gone up considerably if she just had a Derby mount, let alone won the Derby (which I think would have happened if she had the mount, as Sutherland seems to have a good eye for the track bias). So we can blame the trainer (or whoever made the decision on the jockey) for preventing Sutherland from being in Playboy, for now.
Hopeful Playboy won't make an offer to Calvin Keebler Borel. I know I won't be buying that issue.
Another thing that bugs me is anyone who claims that Mine That Bird is a Canadian. He isn't. Never was. Never will be. With all the money that is allotted to Ontario breds, it was a crying shame that he won the Sovereign Award, but he was better than all the Canadian breds and since he ran here at least three times, he qualified to win. He is a Kentucky bred. A US bred horse, nothing more, nothing less.
I will fairly add though that on his dam's side, especially his third dam, there is a lot of Canadian blood. Looks like a few Display Farm horses are at least related to the Bird.
PETA must be very upset that no horses died in the Derby this year. I'm surprised they don't go after the winner's name. I'm sure they aren't fans of throwing birds into mines to see if there is enough oxygen for humans.
This win by Mine That Bird is going to hurt the sales prices of high end horses for the foreseeable future. The low end horses may get a boost, as buyers see that they don't have to spend much to have a future millionaire. This win, coupled with Big Brown's win last year shows that it is much more prudent to spend a premium after a horse has established himself, at least somewhat. The Green Monkey days are gone.
Finally, it is my contention that after that 7 length Derby win, barring a positive, the Bird should be the favourite or 2nd choice at the very least in the Preakness. Many on Pace Advantage adamantly disagree with me on that. But I just can't see how he won't.
Peter from Family Guy agrees with me on the Preakness. Here is his tip:
KUDOS TO WOODBINE AND THE SCORE
It was nice to see Fort Erie on the Score on Sunday, instead of Belmont. I'm hoping nobody complains. Showing Fort Erie as the second track is the right thing to do in order to help promote horse racing in Ontario.
But it didn't help the betting unfortunately. Less than $400,000 was bet in total at Fort Erie on Sunday (I think the $35 million sales price is a tad too high now. Oh wait, I always thought that). I don't ever remember seeing such a low total in recent history.
I know what didn't help. Fort Erie stopped taking US dollar bets at the track. Patrons from the US have to convert to our funny money before they make a wager on track now. Is it any wonder that Fort Erie is big trouble. And by looking at those betting numbers, I hate to say it, but the end is near.
I know their high takeouts (they are the second worst in North America) are a huge turn off to many bettors, but they need to stop racing on Sunday, and only race when they are not up against any significant competition. Switch to Wednesdays. Let players tap out at the Fort before Woodbine races.
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