Queen's Plate Prediction & Chantal Sutherland's New Web Site

First thing is first: HANA Pool Party Continues Today
Free past performances (thanks TrackMaster), pace figures (thanks pacefigures.com) and Thorograph for the 7th race at Monmouth is available by clicking here. We opted for a state bred conditioned route race with 11 horses. We would have gone with a grass race, but Mother Nature told us not to.
Energy Crunch, out of post 11 looks like the horse to beat, but he has been off over 40 days. I'll probably be keying Max Hazard first and second in triactors and supers.
Thanks to Equidaily for the Pool Party plug


QUEEN'S PLATE PREDICTION
Tough race, especially since the two fillies have much the best speed figures going into the race. Milwaukee Appeal, is the probable favourite. I successfully picked her in the Oaks, but I'm anticipating a bounce tomorrow, and I'm leaning towards the runner up in that race, Tasty Temptation (the other filly) to win the Plate.

She made a huge move only to flatten out a bit in the stretch in the Oaks. I really like this angle when it comes to horses getting in shape and when they go further off these types of performances, they tend to do very well. Her jockey, Patrick Husbands owns Woodbine right now.

You have to give consideration to Rapid Release because trainer Roger Attfield just knows how to win this race. This one is set up for a peak effort tomorrow. But his best effort may not be good enough to beat the girls.

My long shot is Keino West. If the pace collapses, and in these type of races, it often does, he'll be coming to pick up the pieces. He reminds me of 1986 Plate winner Golden Choice, who was a maiden and won the race back then. Keino West is no maiden, but the way he prepped in the Plate Trial was very similar to the way Golden Choice prepped going into the big race.

I'm not convinced on Eye Of The Leopard. I just think he fluked into the Trial win and he may bounce off that race, but then again, I thought last year's winner, Not Bourbon couldn't get the distance in. In other words, I'm wrong.........a lot.



In what might be the biggest story in horse racing this year, Chantal Sutherland now has her own web site.

Most of the site is a gallery of pictures ranging from racing pics to her Vogue spread.

I'm debating whether to download the Chantal Screensaver.

Here is a pic of Chantal with Illinois based jockey Inez Karlsson:



Speaking of web sites, a worthwhile one has popped up: Permanent Disabled Jockeys Fund


Latest Chad Beckon Update

'Beckon's agent, Tony Esposito, said the rider was still under heavy sedation but was breathing on his own after being taken off a respirator. Esposito added that a CAT scan scheduled for Thursday was canceled because of swelling in Beckon's brain caused by outer cranial bleeding.

Beckon also fractured his cheekbone, nose, and two vertebrae, but Esposito said there was no sign of spinal damage.'

Gary Cruise has moved his tack to Hastings



Fort Erie announced yesterday to their backstretch that they will try to fill 9 races instead of 8 on Mondays and Tuesdays. Lately they've been getting handle of around $800,000 for those days, and another race that happens around 5ish would most likely add another $150,000 to those totals.


Article on current leading trainer at Fort Erie, Daryl Ezra

"One thing I do is to check out the track bias, and if one exists then I let the jockey know the preferable path to be on," he (Ezra) said. "Of course, the pattern of the race can restrict a rider from getting to the ideal path, but when the opportunity is there, it can make that little difference that can mean so much in the final result."

TVG has signed a deal to broadcast races from Woodbine; not everyone is happy with TVG over it
In the HANA section at Pace Advantage, PA member InsideThePylons commented:

HANA should let TVG know that what they have done is bad for all horseplayers
TVG has signed an exclusive with Woodbine/Mohawk and are going to be promoting them heavily in the future.

This is a horrendous precedent that will be bad for the game and bad for every horseplayer.

TVG, as usual, will be promoting......

P-6's = 25% takeout
P-4's = 25% takeout
P-3's = 26.3% takeout
Supers = 26.3% takeout

Thankfully TVG doesn't really promote trifectas at a whopping 27% takeout

While some people will say, so what, it doesn't matter. I don't bet there.....It matters a lot. It is a huge step backwards in trying to send a message that lower takeout matters and should be promoted. It takes more money out of circulation for ALL tracks now that more bettors will be exposed to these tracks for the first time and lose a % of their churn factor to the criminal takeout rates....etc.

**************************
I couldn't agree more!

I think the public is more aware than ever, thanks to the efforts of HANA and blogs like mine when it comes to high takeout rates. Even with the new exposure, Woodbine only did $2.3 million yesterday in handle, even though they carded 10 races.

The public is avoiding or treading lightly when it comes to betting on high takeout tracks.

If you aren't a HANA member, please join up, it is free, and the bigger the numbers we have, the more clout we have.


Pull The Pocket praises Woodbine for their new Pick 6 gimmick
He doesn't think it will work. I do. At least, it will bring in some bigger handles for Sunday racing that will more than pay for Woodbine's cash influx, I believe as I stated in my previous post.

I do want to see the Pick 6 pool to do well, because like Pull The Pocket, I want to see tracks succeed when trying new innovations that are pro-bettor. But I'm mixed about any additional action in other pools Woodbine will gain because of their ridiculously high takeouts on most of their exotics.



Kentucky passes slots bill
From Paulick Report: What happens next.


Penn National is convinced that the problems with United Totes are behind them. They now have reverted back to closing betting when the bell rings.

HANA Pool Party Today: The 8th At Canterbury Park

HANA is beginning to make fantastic strides now. We are getting a lot of attention as well. John Pricci at HorseRace Insider has written a fantastic article; HANA Proving A Positive Force For Industry Change. Great interview with HANA President Jeff Platt.

My favorite part of the interview is in the comments by Douglas Amos and John Pricci:

"Lone Star currently has an attractive reduction on its Win 5. Promote these people....Woodbine, if it indeed seeks to be a leader, could begin by lowering the most exorbitant exotic takeout rates in North America; boycott them."

John Pricci replied "...And it must be killing you that Woodbine has very high takeout rates, it being your hometown track.
Do you hear us now, Toronto? You’re out."

HANA POOL PARTY
Today, HANA will be swimming in Minnesota, at Canterbury Park. We selected the 8th race, which goes off around 5:30 EST. It is an 11 horse grass race for $7500 claimers (fillies and mares). Show your support and bet the race, even if you just bet a deuce. A couple of horses that have a shot at a price are Rossiya and Fancy N Quick.

Free Past Performances and Pace Figures can be found by clicking here. Thorograph data can be accessed for free here (click attachments in the message box).

The free past performances (above) that were donated by TrackMaster have a couple of new additions. They have just added run up distance (the distance the horses go before the beam starts the timer in a race), and the distance that the rail was out in grass races. For a better explanation, click here.

HANA is becoming the go to voice for horseplayers. Recently, there was a past posting glitch at Hollywood Park (betting was allowed to continue after the race at quite a few locations). It was first brought to everyone's attention at HANA's blog by Mike Maloney. The story got legs in a hurry, as Paulick Report quickly picked up on it as well. A similar incident just happened at Penn National on Wednesday night. Lots of pissed off players, who had picked the right combos but were completely disillusioned when the race turned into a complete refund. Many are requesting HANA boycott Penn, but the reality is right now, until HANA gets much bigger, boycotts just won't be on the table. We have to stick with buycotts until membership gets a little more significant. Right now HANA is close to 1200 members who bet $40-$45 million a year collectively. Lots of small betters and a good number of big and medium bettors as well. The reality is that we need numbers.

The greater the amount of voices we represent, the greater the voice HANA will have. Please join if you haven't already (it is free) by clicking here.


Some sad news as Renee Kierans reports on the passing of long time Woodbine trainer Tony Mattine.

HANA's Next Pool Party and Rachel Vs. The Bird

HANA's Pool Party
We had a tough decision this week but finally agreed that we will do our damage at Prairie Meadows this week. We are asking our members to play the 6th race at Prairie Meadows on Saturday night (the race goes off at around a quarter to 10 EST). Prairie Meadows is the 23rd rated race track on HANA's list, which is above average. The negative is that I don't think HPI has Prairie Meadows on the menu Saturday night, so Canadians who don't have an account with a US ADW that takes Canadian customers will most likely wind up getting shut out this week. UPDATE: Apparently Prairie Meadows is on the HPI menu tonight. That is, if you live in the GTA. In the Niagara Region, according to the menu I saw, Prairie Meadows isn't there.

Note to Woodbine: If you want HANA to feature Woodbine as a Pool Party race, you have two choices. Drop the takeout on triactors to a maximum of 25% and/or stop ripping off customers by ramping up the takeout on bets that have lower takeouts. Announce the change, and we will start looking at your track.

Free past performances and more for the 6th Race at Prairie Meadows on Saturday night are available by clicking here. Thanks again to Craig from Trackmaster, and CJ from Pacefigures.
Support HANA by betting the race any way you like.

Update: Free Thorograph for Saturday night's race. You can access it here.



Pull The Pocket has an interesting post up showing hard stats that prove horse racing doesn't attract the younger crowd.
The younger crowd is gambling, but they are playing where they have a chance to win in the long run.


Woodbine Bias Report The inside just doesn't seem like the place to be, and it now looks like it is becoming a self fulfilling prophecy, jockeys who think they have a chance at winning, are not placing themselves on the wood.


Interesting Tidbit
In today's seventh at Woodbine, there is a horse named Jovial Jill. She is related to Derby winner Mine That Bird on the dam's side. Mine That Bird's second dam is a half sister, to Jovial Jill's second dam.


Speaking of Mine That Bird, I still think he is going to be 1st or 2nd favorite come Preakness post time. The question right now is who is going to be the jockey. As almost everyone knows, Rachel Alexandra, who wound up with a better Beyer than the Bird last race, was sold. New trainer too. The questions are out there now. Will Rachel Alexandra get to show her stuff in the Preakness? If she goes, who will Borel choose? Will Asmussen even give the call to Borel? If Borel gets the mount, will Chantal Sutherland be considered to get her mount back on the bird?


Ontario Racing Commission suspends vet for 10 years
Glenn Johnston allegedly wrote prescriptions for DPO. The ORC release.



Tampa Bay Downs Betting Scandal
An indictment was finally filed against a jockey and a couple of bettors regarding alleged race fixing at Tampa Bay Downs and the now defunct Great Lakes Downs. Read more at the Paulick Report.


Who Is Maggi Moss?
A lot of people who read up on horse racing may just skim over stories regarding owners, and their background. I'm guilty of this myself many times. I recently came across this excellent video on Maggi Moss. Well worth watching: