20 June 2009

Queen's Plate Prediction & Chantal Sutherland's New Web Site

First thing is first: HANA Pool Party Continues Today
Free past performances (thanks TrackMaster), pace figures (thanks pacefigures.com) and Thorograph for the 7th race at Monmouth is available by clicking here. We opted for a state bred conditioned route race with 11 horses. We would have gone with a grass race, but Mother Nature told us not to.
Energy Crunch, out of post 11 looks like the horse to beat, but he has been off over 40 days. I'll probably be keying Max Hazard first and second in triactors and supers.
Thanks to Equidaily for the Pool Party plug

Tough race, especially since the two fillies have much the best speed figures going into the race. Milwaukee Appeal, is the probable favourite. I successfully picked her in the Oaks, but I'm anticipating a bounce tomorrow, and I'm leaning towards the runner up in that race, Tasty Temptation (the other filly) to win the Plate.

She made a huge move only to flatten out a bit in the stretch in the Oaks. I really like this angle when it comes to horses getting in shape and when they go further off these types of performances, they tend to do very well. Her jockey, Patrick Husbands owns Woodbine right now.

You have to give consideration to Rapid Release because trainer Roger Attfield just knows how to win this race. This one is set up for a peak effort tomorrow. But his best effort may not be good enough to beat the girls.

My long shot is Keino West. If the pace collapses, and in these type of races, it often does, he'll be coming to pick up the pieces. He reminds me of 1986 Plate winner Golden Choice, who was a maiden and won the race back then. Keino West is no maiden, but the way he prepped in the Plate Trial was very similar to the way Golden Choice prepped going into the big race.

I'm not convinced on Eye Of The Leopard. I just think he fluked into the Trial win and he may bounce off that race, but then again, I thought last year's winner, Not Bourbon couldn't get the distance in. In other words, I'm wrong.........a lot.

In what might be the biggest story in horse racing this year, Chantal Sutherland now has her own web site.

Most of the site is a gallery of pictures ranging from racing pics to her Vogue spread.

I'm debating whether to download the Chantal Screensaver.

Here is a pic of Chantal with Illinois based jockey Inez Karlsson:

Speaking of web sites, a worthwhile one has popped up: Permanent Disabled Jockeys Fund

Latest Chad Beckon Update
'Beckon's agent, Tony Esposito, said the rider was still under heavy sedation but was breathing on his own after being taken off a respirator. Esposito added that a CAT scan scheduled for Thursday was canceled because of swelling in Beckon's brain caused by outer cranial bleeding.

Beckon also fractured his cheekbone, nose, and two vertebrae, but Esposito said there was no sign of spinal damage.'

Gary Cruise has moved his tack to Hastings

Fort Erie announced yesterday to their backstretch that they will try to fill 9 races instead of 8 on Mondays and Tuesdays. Lately they've been getting handle of around $800,000 for those days, and another race that happens around 5ish would most likely add another $150,000 to those totals.

Article on current leading trainer at Fort Erie, Daryl Ezra
"One thing I do is to check out the track bias, and if one exists then I let the jockey know the preferable path to be on," he (Ezra) said. "Of course, the pattern of the race can restrict a rider from getting to the ideal path, but when the opportunity is there, it can make that little difference that can mean so much in the final result."

TVG has signed a deal to broadcast races from Woodbine; not everyone is happy with TVG over it
In the HANA section at Pace Advantage, PA member InsideThePylons commented:

HANA should let TVG know that what they have done is bad for all horseplayers
TVG has signed an exclusive with Woodbine/Mohawk and are going to be promoting them heavily in the future.

This is a horrendous precedent that will be bad for the game and bad for every horseplayer.

TVG, as usual, will be promoting......

P-6's = 25% takeout
P-4's = 25% takeout
P-3's = 26.3% takeout
Supers = 26.3% takeout

Thankfully TVG doesn't really promote trifectas at a whopping 27% takeout

While some people will say, so what, it doesn't matter. I don't bet there.....It matters a lot. It is a huge step backwards in trying to send a message that lower takeout matters and should be promoted. It takes more money out of circulation for ALL tracks now that more bettors will be exposed to these tracks for the first time and lose a % of their churn factor to the criminal takeout rates....etc.

I couldn't agree more!

I think the public is more aware than ever, thanks to the efforts of HANA and blogs like mine when it comes to high takeout rates. Even with the new exposure, Woodbine only did $2.3 million yesterday in handle, even though they carded 10 races.

The public is avoiding or treading lightly when it comes to betting on high takeout tracks.

If you aren't a HANA member, please join up, it is free, and the bigger the numbers we have, the more clout we have.

Pull The Pocket praises Woodbine for their new Pick 6 gimmick
He doesn't think it will work. I do. At least, it will bring in some bigger handles for Sunday racing that will more than pay for Woodbine's cash influx, I believe as I stated in my previous post.

I do want to see the Pick 6 pool to do well, because like Pull The Pocket, I want to see tracks succeed when trying new innovations that are pro-bettor. But I'm mixed about any additional action in other pools Woodbine will gain because of their ridiculously high takeouts on most of their exotics.

Kentucky passes slots bill
From Paulick Report: What happens next.

Penn National is convinced that the problems with United Totes are behind them. They now have reverted back to closing betting when the bell rings.


bullring said...

Why doesn't WEG have an agreement to show Colonial Downs, especially on their biggest day of racing today.

The_Knight_Sky said...

Tough race to cap this Queen's Plate - 2009.

I'm not too keen on Woodbine racing but
I'm pretty sure the winner will be coming from midpack and not on the front end.

I'm leaning towards Mike Smith's mount to make a good showing. I wonder if he's there to check up on how Ms. Sutherland is doing.